Mebaran's 2012 MLB Plays

mebaran · 04-27-12, 09:17 PM

I'm gonna go ahead and chalk up the Brewers play as a loss.....ughh, what a crappy game for my card. Halladay was brought down by the Cubs today though, so that feels nice.

went 2-2 today, +1.06 units

Overall: 48-45-7, +4.48 units

mebaran · 04-27-12, 09:18 PM

Originally posted by bhssoccer89

gallardo....ouch

Yeah. I don't want to talk about it...

mebaran · 04-28-12, 02:15 PM

today, everyone.

My plays for tomorrow, 4/29 are:

Blue Jays (Alavarez/Vargas) -150

Marlins (Johnson/Miley) -170

Phillies (Garza/Kendrick) -101

bhssoccer89 · 04-28-12, 06:10 PM

Mike can you answer me this?
Where is all this power everyone said castro would eventually have?

mebaran · 04-28-12, 07:22 PM

Power? I guess power is a relative term. Will Starlin hit 25 homers a year? No, probably not. But he does have gap-to-gap power, he'll hit plenty of doubles and triples. That's fine with me.

I don't really remember anyone declaring him a power guy, but I guess he could be with a little work in the gym. Who knows, he's still super young.

bhssoccer89 · 04-28-12, 08:48 PM

Yea I know hes still young but lots of people were projecting him to get to the 25 homer mark.
It seems like that is not happening so can he continue to be the #3 hitter if he only goes for 10 homers a year?
One plus he has had this year is 10 steals already, like to see that.

mebaran · 04-28-12, 09:23 PM

Yeah. Honestly, though, if you're the hitting coach, why fix what's not broken? I'd rather him be hitting .320 right now and then have the power come later than vice versa.

mebaran · 04-28-12, 11:53 PM

Today went 3-2, +0.60 units

Overall: 51-47-7, +5.08 units

mebaran · 04-29-12, 01:52 PM

Plays for tomorrow will be out a few minutes after Bkmkr releases their lines.

mebaran · 04-29-12, 03:40 PM

Plays for tomorrow, 4/30:

Mets (Dickey/Norris) -105

Rockies (Nicasio/Harang) -125

Orioles (Kuroda/Hammel) +155

Royals (Below/Hochevar) +125

Rays (Hernandez/Hellickson) -110 2 UNITS!!! (2nd Best Play of the year so far!)

mebaran · 04-29-12, 04:06 PM

Today went 1-2, -1.71 units

Overall: 52-49-7, +3.37 units

mebaran · 04-30-12, 06:41 PM

Plays for tomorrow, 5/1:

Diamondbacks (Cahill/Zimmermann) +130

Indians (Sale/Jimenez) +115

Twins (Williams/Liriano) +150

mebaran · 04-30-12, 10:56 PM

Today went 2-2-1, +0.95 units

Overall: 54-51-8, +4.27 units

EXhoosier10 · 05-01-12, 08:42 AM

Surprised to see you on CLE tonight Meb. Any metric other than ERA says Ubaldo is struggling badly. everythign I look at points to CHW. Am i missing something?

mebaran · 05-01-12, 12:27 PM

Well, statistical analysis aside, from a fundamental basis, Konerko being DTD pulls some weight.

This decision to be on CLE, though, is mainly stat based. Though the Indians are dogs, they should only be slight dogs. The line didn't reflect that, so I bet it.

On a personal note fwiw, I don't think Ubaldo can pitch any worse than he did earlier this year. There's really no way to go but up. Anecdotal, perhaps, but that is my general feeling.

At any rate, good luck today.

mebaran · 05-01-12, 12:28 PM

Also...early line movement at some books indicate that CLE is the correct play at around +125ish...so my +115 was bad market timing...I missed the openers yesterday.

mebaran · 05-01-12, 08:45 PM

No plays for tomorrow. I didn't get a chance to hit my numbers early. Too busy with work.

Will try and do some prep work for the 5/3 plays tonight so I can have some plays for that day.

till then

mebaran · 05-01-12, 08:49 PM

Side note: I laid off the Orioles tonight because I second guessed my model....god I'm retarded. I have no clue why I scratched that one...

Rule #1: unless there is some crazy exogenous news regarding the game (injury, pitching change, weather, etc), DON'T SECOND GUESS THE MODEL!

mebaran · 05-02-12, 07:32 PM

Yesterday went 1-2, -0.70 units

Overall: 55-53-8, +3.57 units

mebaran · 05-02-12, 08:11 PM

Plays for tomorrow 5/3:

Diamondbacks (Detwiler/Kennedy) -110

Rays (Millwood/Niemann) -185

Indians (Danks/Masterson) -105

EXhoosier10 · 05-02-12, 08:16 PM

I'm with you on the Dbacks, meb.

mebaran · 05-02-12, 08:57 PM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

I'm with you on the Dbacks, meb.

Yeah BABY! Get it.

mebaran · 05-03-12, 06:39 PM

Plays for tomorrow, 5/4 (I know....my model is going Cleveland-Crazy...I'm over it

):

Cubs (Billingsley/Malholm) +120

Phillies (Kendrick/Strasburg) +175

Tigers (Smyly/Peavy) -105

Indians (Lewis/Gomez) +130

mebaran · 05-03-12, 11:30 PM

Yesterday went 2-1, +0.90 units

Overall: 57-54-8, +4.47 units

mebaran · 05-04-12, 06:22 PM

No plays for tomorrow. I'm sure there are, but again, my work has taken over my life =(

mebaran · 05-04-12, 09:53 PM

3-1, +2.50 units (ALMOST swept...but it's hard to not root for these Nationals. Hell of a ball club...)

Overall: 60-55-8, +6.97 units

BeardedTaco · 05-04-12, 10:07 PM

You're getting great line value banging those openers/overnight lines. Keep up the good work.

mebaran · 05-05-12, 02:01 AM

Originally posted by BeardedTaco

You're getting great line value banging those openers/overnight lines. Keep up the good work.

Thank you, sir.

I'm trying, but hitting the openers is so hard to do when you a have a day job...part of me wonders how I'd do at this if I could divert all of my attention to this instead.

For now, I'm ok with running my model slightly after openers, even though I'm usually giving up anywhere between 20-50 cents of edge..

mebaran · 05-05-12, 02:05 AM

Does anyone know why the Phillies were +175 today at one point? I'm thinking it must have been a book pricing error for a few minutes at Bookmaker. I can screenshot to prove it, but I actually did get +175 off some how. It sucks because Bookmaker is grading it as a loss (which it was), but if the Phillies won, would they have voided it claiming I "picked off a bad line"? Anyone know?

BeardedTaco · 05-05-12, 09:54 AM

Originally posted by mebaran

Does anyone know why the Phillies were +175 today at one point? I'm thinking it must have been a book pricing error for a few minutes at Bookmaker. I can screenshot to prove it, but I actually did get +175 off some how. It sucks because Bookmaker is grading it as a loss (which it was), but if the Phillies won, would they have voided it claiming I "picked off a bad line"? Anyone know?

Even if +175 was an error I don't think it was that far off the market price. Don't think they would have voided you.

mebaran · 05-05-12, 02:34 PM

Originally posted by BeardedTaco

Even if +175 was an error I don't think it was that far off the market price. Don't think they would have voided you.

You never know, even from these "reputable" books.

mebaran · 05-05-12, 02:34 PM

this weekend, everyone!

My plays for tomorrow, 5/6 are:

Padres (Nolasco/Wieland) +130

Tigers (Axelrod/Porcello) -150

Indians (Darvish/Jiminez) +140

Red Sox (Buchholz/Hunter) -145

Athletics (Milone/Moore) +145

Twins (Noesi/Blackburn) +120

mebaran · 05-05-12, 03:33 PM