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Plays for tomorrow, 4/15:
Marlins (Happ/Sanchez) -185 Reds (Detwiler/Leake) +110 MIL/ATL Under 8.5 (Narveson/Beachy) -110 Cubs (Malholm/Westbrook) +160 Pirates (Correia/Vogelsong) +155 Orioles (Drabek/Matusz) +145 Indians (Jiminez/Mendoza) -110 Twins (Feliz/Hendriks) +170 Comment -
Yesterday went 1-3, -2.25 units
Overall: 29-28-4, -0.82 units.Comment -
Today went 4-4, +0.55 units
Overall 33-32-4, -0.27 unitsComment -
Keep up the good fightComment -
Lol, thanksComment -
Sorry for the lack of plays, my work schedule is getting screwy. Today I came in at 9am, left at 11am, am going back tonight at 11pm, and being done at 7am...Shit...
Anyways, here are my plays for tomorrow, 4/18:
TEX/BOS o8.5 (Holland/Beckett) -120 Twins (Marquis/Kuroda) +210 Marlins (Garza/Buehrle) -119 <---2 UNITS! Brewers (Capuano/Greinke) -165 Reds (Latos/Garcia) +125 Comment -
Massive line agreement with the Marlins....hope you all got in on that price range on the openers yesterday!Comment -
4-1, +5.10 units yesterday
Overall: 37-33-4, +4.83 unitsComment -
Should have a good amount of plays for tomorrow and Sunday. Just waiting for the openers today so I can get the plays out.
today gents
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Only two plays for tomorrow (4/21) actually:
Marlins (Strasburg/Sanchez) +165 Padres (Lubeke/Halladay) +140 Comment -
Plays for tomorrow, 4/22:
Tigers (Smyly/Lewis) +120 MIN/TB Under 9 (Niemann/Liriano) -120 Red Sox +120 Giants (Lincecum/Gee) -105 Pirates (Lohse/Bedard) +130 Marlins (Johnson/Gonzalez) +100 Rockies (Gallardo/Guthrie) +140 Padres (Blanton/Bass) -110 Comment -
*Note: Red Sox is Action (I don't care who's pitching this one)Comment -
Went 1-1 today, +0.40 units
Overall: 38-34-4, +5.23 units
Could have just as easily gone 2-0 today, but the Nats rained on my parade...hopefully I make a great showing tomorrow too.
Early line movement suggests good picks.Comment -
Ugly looking picks but there are definitely days where those are money. Hopefully that is tomorrow
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UGLY?!???? How dare you!!!
Just check the line movement. Every one of my picks is in agreement except one, which hasn't moved. I'm happy with my plays, regardless of whether they win or not. It's like poker. You can make all the right decisions, and still lose, yet you must stay committed to making those good decisions, because in the long run, you're fine.
I'm committed to a process, not results. Results come from the repeated application of a good process.Comment -
Little fun fact that makes me feel good inside after all the hard work I put in this offseason:
ROI this year on moneylines: 13.89% (Risked 52.05 units to win 7.23 units)
...I'm actually down this year on totals (-1.00 unit), but like I said near the beginning, those are starting to be phased out until I can come up with a more accurate way to model them.
, and GO HAWKSSSS!
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Marlins game is scratched..Comment -
Plays for tomorrow, 4/22:
Mets (Batista/Lincecum) +125 ------ (GM 1) Brewers (Harrel/Greinke) -205 Dbacks (Kendrick/Hudson) -115 Comment -
Today went 3-2-3, +1.40 units (I'll just count the postponed games as ties, though I'm not sure what's generally accepted here?
Overall: 41-36-7, +6.63 units
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nice start so far, mebaran. Just so you know, your date in #55 should be 4/23 instead of 4/22Comment -
Plays for tomorrow, 4/24:
Marlins (Johnson/Santana) -110 Brewers (Norris/Wolf) -144 Dbacks (Worley/Collmenter) +100 Comment -
Yesterday went 2-1, +1.00 units
Overall: 43-37-7, +7.63 units
Tomorrow's plays will be out shortly.Comment -
Plays for tomorrow, 4/25 (possibly one more play pending the KC/CLE line coming out):
Brewers (Happ/Marcum) -185 Padres (Wieland/Zimmerman) +130 Athletics (Parker/Sale) +120 Tigers (Hernandez/Wilk) +110 Rays (Hellickson/Wilson) +100 Comment -
Note about the above plays:
Am I 100% stoked to get the Tigers as an underdog versus ANY pitcher? Yes. There is tremendous value there, even against King Felix.
Also, my model predicts the best play on the board being the A's over the Sox. If you want to play that one for 2 units, feel free to do so as it is my most confident pick.
Another note, I have taken the Brewers as big favorites 3 days in a row...the only explanation I can come up with is that the market is actually UNDER estimating how bad the Astros actually are. Let me tell you....they are bad. In the game where I took the Brewers at -205, my model had them at around -310....thank you, Joe Public, for underbetting the favorite for once!
and tonight, gentlemen...
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Yesterday went 1-2, -1.10 units
Overall: 44-39-7, +6.53 unitsComment -
ADDING FOR TODAY!
Indians (Jiminez/Hochevar) -146 Comment -
One play for tomorrow, 4/26:
Red Sox (Doubront/Humber) +105 Comment -
Today went 2-4, -3.11 units. (The favorites killed me today....oh well)
Overall: 46-43-7, +3.42 units
Reminder, post #65 contains the only play for tomorrow.
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My plays for tomorrow, 4/27 are:
Cubs (Malholm/Halladay) +210 Brewers (Gallardo/Westbrook) +110 STL/MIL Under 8 -120 (Gallardo/Westbrook) (A rare total play!!) Indians (Weaver/Masterson) +116 Comment -
Getting some value on the Cubs here. Their lineup is starting to see more pitches per AB and take more walks. Though the latter shouldn't really come into play with Halladay on the mound, seeing more pitches certainly helps the Cubs cause.
I also am looking for Gallardo to come out firing against a division rival.
everyone!
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Plays for tomorrow, 4/28:
Brewers (Estrada/Lohse) +129 Rockies (Guthrie/Gee) -145 Dodgers (Strasburg/Billingsley) +105 Blue Jays (Morrow/Millwood) -175 Red Sox (Peavy/Lester) +100 Comment -
gallardo....ouchComment