Mebaran's 2012 MLB Plays

[mebaran]

Good luck everyone. I will be tracking my plays in this thread. Feel free to drop any information and consider this a hangout.

Just a disclaimer so everyone is on the same page: I just started a new job at a futures trading firm, so around June or so, I'll be working nights. This means that I'll most likely only have weekend plays because I'll be sleeping during the day. Until then, I will be running both of my models.

(Unless otherwise noted, all plays are either to win or to risk one unit)


My first play in this thread is:

4/4/12 --- STL/MIA Over 7 (+105)

This is based on Lohse and Johnson pitching, so if there is a change, just let that be noted.

Again, good luck everyone, and hopefully I can turn some decent profits before June!

[bhssoccer89]

looking forward to baseball season starting. loving my fantasy team which is on its first year of a dynasty league. also will be going to 2 games the first week of the season

[mebaran]

^Dude, what games? My boss has a shitload of Sox tickets, so I may be hitting some of those up too this year.

[bhssoccer89]

on the 7th ill be at miller park for brewers cards then on the 11th ill be at wrigley for cubs brewers

[mebaran]

Just to clarify, my play for 4/4 is STL/MIA Over 7 (+105)

[mebaran]

Good sign already as the line has shifted to +100 for the over in the STL/MIA game.

Lines came out today for the games on Thursday the 5th, and I have the following plays:

ATL/NYN Under 7 -120

Pirates +175

Cubs +150

Marlins +140

LAD/SD Under 6 -120

Just to be clear, all my plays are either to win, or to risk 1 unit (based on whether or not the line is positive).

Good hunting.

[agendaman]

c/o mebaran just wondering why take pitts. vs. halladay/phils. he is 3-1 w/1.08 era vs.them/your other pks. just fine /i looked this up in april jared weaver/10-1 josh johnson 7-1 also dan haren and ricky romero /finally cubs sp. dempster on 04/05/12 is 9-1 vs. washington//gl

[mebaran]

^"Holy misuse of punctuation, Batman!" LOL

In all honesty, these kinds of stats, no offense, don't really mean much in my modeling. The stat "Cubs pitcher Ryan Dempster is 9-1 vs. Washington dates back to when? Back to when they weren't the same team? Probably. Teams and players change every year, so those stats are, in most cases, useless.

If you can make a profit that way, by all means, continue to do your thing.

[mebaran]

Side note: Based on early line movement, PIT is the correct side at +175.

[mebaran]

First play's a loser...17 hits in the game, and only 5 runs...ok, cool Kyle Lohse

0-1 on the day, -1.00 unit

Movement on the Thursday plays look good. Lines are mostly in agreement.

Luck on tomorrow's plays, everyone.

[EXhoosier10]

Tough loss on the over, Meb; The new stadium seemed to be playing big for the most part of the game. Thankfully JJ wasn't on top of his game and I was able to hit the Cardinals at a decent price. Makes my Pittsburgh bet for tomorrow a lot less meaningful as I'm going to be walking away from opening day(s) in the green either way.

A couple questions... I think i recall you playing different size bets throughout the year, but do play these first few weeks of games for less than your normal unit size? I'm currently playing for ~1/4 - 1/2 of my normal unit these first couple of weeks due to lack of data and being worried that pitchers might have changed from last year to this.

Also, no worries about Miami playing a late game tonight and traveling to cincinnati for a day game tomorrow? Outside of Pittsburgh, the only other play my model shows is Miami, but I'm a bit weary, even though I think Buehrle should be in for a good opener against the NL.

[mebaran]

I'm betting my normal amount. The books are in the same boat as us...limited data, so we are all at square one. No need to get fancy with unit sizes. However, later on in the year, I will be looking at upping some units here and there.

Miami was still a play when factoring travel, FYI.

today...

[mebaran]

Plays for tomorrow, 4/6 are:

NYA/TB Under 7 (EV)

SEA/OAK Under 6.5 (EV)

SF/ARI Over 7 (-115)

COL/HOU Under 8 (-115)

Rockies (Guthrie/Rodriguez) +120

LAD/SD Under 6 (EV)

[mebaran]

Today went -3.20 units,
Overall 1-5, -4.20 units

Ick. Hopefully I come back tomorrow. Oh well.

[mebaran]

My overnight plays for 4/7 are:

Cubs (-110)

Brewers (-114)

COL/HOU Under 9 (-105)

Pirates (+155)

Marlins (+145)

LAD/SD Under 7 (-115)

TOR/CLE Under 8 (-105)

BOS/DET Over 7.5 (-110)

Rays (-120)

NYA/TB Under 7.5 (-115)

SEA/OAK Under 6.5 (-120)

I know there are a ton of plays, so expect this most weekends. The totals machine will be tapered down soon and most of my plays will be sides, but until then, party on.

[mebaran]

Yesterday went 2-2-2, +0.00 units

Overall record: 3-7-2, -4.20 units

[mebaran]

EVERY opener I bet on moved in agreement with me for today's plays!!! (except for one which is stagnant).

[mebaran]

Overnight plays for 4/7 are:

TOR/CLE Under 8.5 (-105)

NYY/TB Under 8.5 (-115)

ATL/NYN Under 8 (-110)

Marlins (+110)

Pirates (+116)

LAD/SD Under 7 (-120)

SF/ARI Over 8 (-120)

[mebaran]

Today went 5-6-0, -0.70 units

Overall: 8-13-2, -4.90 units

It's going to turn soon I hope...

[mebaran]

Today went: 4-3-0, +0.86 units
Overall: 12-16-2, -4.04 units

Plays for tomorrow, 4/8/12:

Marlins +140

SF/COL Over 9 (-125)

Mets +100

WAS/NYN Under 8 -115

ATL/HOU Under 8 -120

Brewers -130

Indians -120

CHA/CLE Under 8 -120

Rangers -220

Athletics -115

KC/OAK Under 8 -115

[mebaran]

Overnight plays for tomorrow, 4/10 are:

WAS/NYN Under 8.5 (-115)

Mets (-112)

ARI/SD Under 6.5 (-110)

Indians (-121)

Rangers (-230)

KC/OAK Under 7.5 (-110)

[mebaran]

Yesterday's plays went 8-3, +4.75 units
Overall Record: 20-19-2, +0.71 units

Tomorrow's overnight plays will be posted in about an hour. today everyone!

[mebaran]

Tomorrow's plays:

WAS/NYN Under 6.5 (-115)

ARI/SD Under 7 (-125)

Marlins (+125)

Rockies (+115)

SF/COL Over 8.5 (-115)

KC/OAK Under 7.5 (-120)

Rangers (-230)

[mebaran]

Yesterday went 3-1-2 (one push, and a cancelled under from a shortened game), +1.88 units

Overall: 23-20-4, +2.59 units

[mebaran]

Another specification, just an FYI, all of my plays include both listed pitchers, so if there is a pitching change, my bets are voided. This may happen from time to time, so I'm just warning everyone.

[hydrosmak]

Jumped on Marlins too. Crazy how overvalued Phillies still are right now. That line-up is suspect.

[odog11]

Jumped on Marlins too. Crazy how overvalued Phillies still are right now. That line-up is suspect.

On Marlins ML and though not a big fan of +1.5 this seems like a solid spot for it. 5dimes -185. Hmmmmm..

[hydrosmak]

On Marlins ML and though not a big fan of +1.5 this seems like a solid spot for it. 5dimes -185. Hmmmmm..

Yeah I agree. Philly doesn't look like they are capable of blowing anyone out.

[odog11]

Yeah I agree. Philly doesn't look like they are capable of blowing anyone out.

Just hit with Cardinals +1.5 with them losing by 1 in bottom of the 9th, going to roll that over on Marlins +1.5.

[mebaran]

Not sure I'm sold on the Marlins as a bandwagon team yet...but they do look like a fairly above average team. Whether or not they can follow through a full 162 games remains to be seen.

Tomorrow's plays will be out in a little bit. tonight

[mebaran]

Tomorrow's plays are:

Twins +139 (Haren/Liriano)

Reds -105 (Gonzalez/Latos)

SF/COL Over 9.5 -115 (Bumgarner/Moyer) (Feel free to put another unit on the SF/COL over if you're so inclined. This looks like the best play on the board to me. However, I'm staying 1 unit on it.)

[mebaran]

Went 4-3 today, -0.35 units (Texas loss hurt the day)

Overall: 27-23-4, +2.24 units

[mebaran]

4/12 went 1-2, -0.81 units, and there were no plays for today.

Overall: 28-25-4, +1.43 units.


4/14 plays will be out in a bit.

[mebaran]

Plays for tomorrow:

Reds (Bailey/Jackson) +115

NYN/PHI (Niese/Worley) +135

Marlins (Zambrano/Norris) -155

[mebaran]

Plays for tomorrow:

Reds (Bailey/Jackson) +115

NYN/PHI (Niese/Worley) +135

Marlins (Zambrano/Norris) -155

ADDING Athletics (Noesi/Milone) -105