MLB Strategies?

Evol · 03-20-12, 08:32 AM

I highly doubt it. The 90+ win teams (Phillies, Yankes, Red Sox, ect...) often have a money line close to -200 and sometimes more. Vegas knows people like to bet on these teams and jack up the lines even more than they should be (especially the Yankees). Keep in mind that those 90 win teams are still losing 60-70 games a year, and when they lose you pay a high price for the loss.

Evol · 03-20-12, 09:06 AM

Lets assume for arguments sake that the average line on these great teams over their 162 games is -150. In order to show a profit that team would have to win at least 98 games. Philadelphia was the only team to win that many games last season.

To make it more conservative lets assume the average line is -140, then you would only have to win 95 games to show a slight profit ($120 profit on the season if you bet $100 every game). Only 5 teams did that last year (Philies, Yankees, Brewers, Tigers, Rangers). Of those 5 only the Philies were expected to win that many games. My point being, if you knew you had to win 95 games you shouldn't have been betting on 4 of those teams anyway. If fact you should have been betting on the Red Sox, who would have lost you $1,080.

oZgoodZ33 · 03-20-12, 09:25 AM

Thx for the insight Evol. I forgot to mention that I play on 5dimes so I get reduced juice so that makes a bit of a difference. Do you use any capper for MLB or have a system or method of your own?

Evol · 03-20-12, 09:29 AM

Originally posted by oZgoodZ33

Thx for the insight Evol. I forgot to mention that I play on 5dimes so I get reduced juice so that makes a bit of a difference. Do you use any capper for MLB or have a system or method of your own?

I tried an underdog system the first half of last season, but it didn't profit. I'm gonna follow someone this year most likely, but I dont' know who yet.

rkelly110 · 03-21-12, 07:51 AM

Originally posted by oZgoodZ33

I was looking through threads trying to find good MLB cappers but haven't been completely satisfied. So I was thinking, what if I just tailed a few 90+ win teams like the Yanks, Angels, Rangers, and Tigers and 90+ loss teams like the Mets and Mariners. Wouldn't I turn a profit just betting on each of the 90+ win teams and against the 90+ loss teams in the end?

Any thoughts on this strategy or thoughts on your own strategies would be greatly appreciated. Thx guys.

Yes, there are strategies that use what you want to do. Most use the top 3 and bottom
3. I would use labbies on them though.

I used James Jones double play system last year with some success. He sells a Triple play
system, which I have no experience with.

Jones' double play is to look after the 1st game in a series. If the home fave was defeated
by 2 or more runs and are favored again the next 2 days, start chasing from the 2nd day.
(if the home team turns into a dog, works also)

GL

Highness · 03-21-12, 09:09 AM

Originally posted by oZgoodZ33

I was looking through threads trying to find good MLB cappers but haven't been completely satisfied. So I was thinking, what if I just tailed a few 90+ win teams like the Yanks, Angels, Rangers, and Tigers and 90+ loss teams like the Mets and Mariners. Wouldn't I turn a profit just betting on each of the 90+ win teams and against the 90+ loss teams in the end?

Definitely and anyone who says otherwise is just wrong. How can you lose money on a team that you KNOW is going to win at least 90 games. Definitely add the Astros into that 90+ loss category, you would've made BIG money betting against them last year and they will surely be just as bad this year. Hop on board the money train

PuckIt · 03-21-12, 09:18 AM

I've consistently had luck betting that the Pirates are going to lose.

printing_money · 04-01-12, 07:45 PM

Hi oZgoodZ33,

I actually follow 2 systems that were very profitable last year and I am hoping will be just as profitable this year. Sport system specialists have a daily system which made me a shit load last year and they also have a 2 chase system which was also very good. They are very expensive but I am willing to split costs

printing_money · 04-01-12, 07:46 PM

Originally posted by oZgoodZ33

Thx for the insight Evol. I forgot to mention that I play on 5dimes so I get reduced juice so that makes a bit of a difference. Do you use any capper for MLB or have a system or method of your own?

I actually follow 2 systems that were very profitable last year and I am hoping will be just as profitable this year. Sport system specialists have a daily system which made me a shit load last year and they also have a 2 chase system which was also very good. They are very expensive but I am willing to split costs

JR007 · 04-03-12, 09:25 AM

look to bet unders on totals, look for empire assignments, mlb.com, covers has a good article recently on umpires, know your key numbers, on totals,7/9/11 stay away from fav of -150 and above, on the runline +1.5
much better bet than -1.5, sucker bet, around 30% of games fall on one run

vaas187 · 04-03-12, 10:24 AM

jays will make for an interesting season.

vaas187 · 04-03-12, 10:25 AM

hahahaha they look like douchbags. not doubting it works though