MLB NO SWEEP Betting pattern.

The Sensei · 02-12-12, 09:33 PM

usually ends up in

jrs362 · 02-12-12, 11:22 PM

Originally posted by Jayvegas420

I was wondering if anyone has heard of this before or any other variation of it. I was told that teams that end up making the playoffs are swept in any particular series x amount of times in a season. So, the pattern went like this: Yankees are playing a 3 game series vs the Jays. I wager enough money to profit 5 units on the Yankees in game one (If the Yankees are -200 I wager 10 units to earn 5) If the Yankees win I stop & I have profited 5 units. If the Yankees lose I now need to wager enough units on game 2 in the series, to profit 5 units & also need to wager enough units to cover the original 5 units I lost in game one. (If the Yankees are -150 I wager 15 units - 7.5 units to earn 5 units on game 2 & 7.5 units to profit 5 units that I originally lost in game 1 of the series. Say now the Yankees lost Game 2 of the series I need to wager enough to cover my losses for the first two games plus enough to profit the 5 units that I originally intended to win. So, I guess I am to understand if the Yankees only are swept 1.12% of the time, as long as I don't choose the Yankees for a Series that they are swept in I can choose different teams each week until the end of the season I have minimized my chances for losing. If I assume the team I am taking each week NOT TO BE SWEPT will averege odds of -200 How much money would I need to start with to make sure I am not tapped out by Game 4 of a series? Also does anyone know if there is a name for this betting strategy?

You actually lost 10 units in Game 1 so you would need to risk enough to win 15 units (10 lost on Game 1 + 5 profit) on Game 2. At -150, you would be risking 22.5 to win 15 on Game 2. If they also lose Game 2, you need to risk enough to win 37.5 units (10 lost on Game 1 + 22.5 lost on Game 2 + 5 profit). At -150 for Game 3, you'd be looking at a risk of 56.25 units.

You risk losing a large chunk of change in the event of a sweep (88.75 units). You'd need to correctly pick 18 series to recover your losses and make a 1.25 unit profit. Throw in a Game 4 or use your -200 odds, and it will get even uglier if you pick a sweep.

Jayvegas420 · 02-12-12, 11:40 PM

What if I picked a team from the National & a team from the American?
Kinda like running this twice. When the American League Series that I picked is over I pick another American League team within say....3 days. When the National League Series I picked is over I pick another National League team within 3 days.
Would I now be betting enough series' throughout the season to make it worth my while.

Thank you for correcting my brainfart there.

xxx · 02-13-12, 12:09 AM

orioles going into texas in 2010 and sweeping them just before the all star break is still fresh in my head. it was a 4 game set, texas were (-249,-198,-389,-235) favorites. you can make money in the short term but if you loose one you will loose weeks of profits and work.

jrs362 · 02-13-12, 01:09 AM

Originally posted by Jayvegas420

What if I picked a team from the National & a team from the American? Kinda like running this twice. When the American League Series that I picked is over I pick another American League team within say....3 days. When the National League Series I picked is over I pick another National League team within 3 days. Would I now be betting enough series' throughout the season to make it worth my while. Thank you for correcting my brainfart there.

Assuming all of your 18 series went to the last game, you'd need 54 (3 game series) - 72 (4 game series) days to complete the cycle if you're running one series at a time. Running multiple series at the same time will allow you to get through those 18 series in a shorter period of time, but it also doubles your chance of losing a series and putting yourself in the hole.

Jayvegas420 · 02-13-12, 11:32 AM

jr, so youre saying that if I can successfully choose a team 18 different times I profit 1.25 units, meaning 90 units over the 88.75 I will need?
Also do you know how many series I can fit into a season if I intent to run this twice concurrently? Is it roughly 60 series'?

RS1702 · 02-13-12, 12:06 PM

Not saying it's impossible to win that way--but--just plain old good handicapping is MUCH safer, and a whole lot simpler. I've given up on betting systems like that a long-g time ago.

jrs362 · 02-13-12, 12:54 PM

Originally posted by Jayvegas420

jr, so youre saying that if I can successfully choose a team 18 different times I profit 1.25 units, meaning 90 units over the 88.75 I will need? Also do you know how many series I can fit into a season if I intent to run this twice concurrently? Is it roughly 60 series'?

Correct. You would need to choose correctly 18 times in order to profit enough to cover a loss.

The number of series can vary, depending on which ones you pick. At any one time there may be teams engaging in 2, 3, or 4 game series so it will essentially depend on when you choose the new series. I just pulled up the Yankees schedule for the 2012 season, and if I counted right, they have 50 series scheduled this season. So assuming you're running this twice I think you could conceivably fit about 100 series into a season.

dredmahawkus · 02-13-12, 02:00 PM

I usually bet any team on thurs and sunday usually some wednesdays.....if they lost 2 away 1 unit if they lost 2 at home 3 units that they wont get swept......last year it did ok won a tiny bit......the year before it was terrible! every thurs and sunday when there was like 3 bets going on 3 different team they usually all were swept or 2 out of 3 sweeps.

I thought that was going to be a great system but I can say over the last 2 years it hasnt been that good. I am going to stick to it one more year....if it is not profitable this year I am finding a new system!

Heart · 02-13-12, 02:51 PM

It's a chase system. You WILL get burned.

skrtelfan · 02-15-12, 12:30 AM

Why's there a sticky about no systems in the tank but read the forum and there's two chase systems on the front page

AndreaMelendez · 02-15-12, 01:41 AM

An interesting prop bet for this year's World Series might be an 'over/under' on the number of starting pitchers to work more than five innings. Judging by how the Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals worked their way through the League Championship Series round, the 'under' would draw a lot of action.

Thanks,
Andrea

OMGRandyJackson · 02-16-12, 12:01 AM

Originally posted by AndreaMelendez

An interesting prop bet for this year's World Series might be an 'over/under' on the number of starting pitchers to work more than five innings. Judging by how the Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals worked their way through the League Championship Series round, the 'under' would draw a lot of action.

Thanks,
Andrea

Does this prop bet even exist?

OMGRandyJackson · 02-16-12, 12:09 AM

Originally posted by AndreaMelendez

An interesting prop bet for this year's World Series might be an 'over/under' on the number of starting pitchers to work more than five innings. Judging by how the Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals worked their way through the League Championship Series round, the 'under' would draw a lot of action. Thanks, Andrea

And all that drawn action would have lost. 10 of 14 SP went 5 or more innings in the WS.

I dont see how this prop bet would exist because a book cannot predict how many games the WS will go.

Maybe book could offer "Will more SP pitch 5 or more innings then SP pitching less then 5 innings: YES or NO"

CappinTerp · 02-16-12, 12:53 PM

IMO it is not worth the risk for when you are wrong you get hammered.!! You may go 115-4 and break even.!!

Jayvegas420 · 02-16-12, 02:06 PM

I guess I will need to find out with what percentage "playoff contending" teams are swept in a particular season.
If I knew that over the last 10 years all playoff teams were swept 0.5%-0.77% during the regular season I could implement this system with grater confidence.
If I found out that it is not unlikely that these same teams are swept 2%-3% in a regu;ar season I might not be very confident in the system.