[Pair of 5s Sir]

There is 3 months before the regular season starts its engines. So, from high atop the Contrarian Observation Tower, we start the thread and give it a whirl.

Welcome all, to the Pair of 5s Sir 2011 MLB selections thread, where we sit atop the Contrarian Observation Tower. For those of you who have participated in the past, there is no hype, no BS, just straight out legit selections.

My unit count will be based on a true count. One unit for one game. For example, if selecting the favorite at -160, it will be risking 1.60 units to win 1.0 units. Conversely a selection on a +160, I will be risking 1.0 units to win 1.6 units. This is the true blue way of recording a true record. Each thread follower would be able to determine how much they would profit or not by applying a dollar amount per unit.

At this point the signature feature on the site is inoperable. In the past I would include a record, including W-L, % and unit count. I am not sure how I will handle the recordation but I will arrive at something. Perhaps, I will post to the spreadsheet but that is not a favorite of mine, operationally speaking. With mobile entries, the spreadsheet is awkward. Nonetheless, I will come up with something.

Last year was unique in the fact that, the selections started off to a -18 unit swing at the start of the season. We were able to bring the count to even and then encountered a family illness that resulted in the passing of my father, took 2 months off and then the count floated back to about -9 units at the end of the season. Needless to say a confusing year capping and personally.

My selection will include sides, RL and totals. My plays are contrarian in nature. These are some of the factors considered that lead up to the selection.

What information does the public see, that makes the line, ie. ERA, streaks, and standings. This information for the novice players is overrated. Does the line make sense, particularly on the favorite. Oftentimes, the public will use the above, overrated information to pound the favorite. They see the information, and move the line accordingly to no success. Head to head records, where the line is lower than expected, for the dominating team. There are several other triggers but I won't bore you.

Disciplined money management is key, no more than 3% of bankroll will be wagered on any particular game.

All posts will be posted to the thread prior to gametime. You can also follow on Twitter, by request only.

As always, opposing points of view are welcomed. The thread goes from the start of the season and ends approximately half way thru the season, give or take a couple of weeks either way.

Beware O Contrare

[JMobile]

Opening day is in March?

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Opening day is in March?

Yes, Sir. March 31st. Go to MLB.com, they have posted the schedule. It's an effort to start earlier, to alleviate the cold conditions for the post season.

[smitch124]

Once New Years passes the baseball season always seems closer!

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Once New Years passes the baseball season always seems closer!

Welcome to Smitch to the Contrarian Observation Tower, I don't believe you have been here before.

[JMobile]

Yes, Sir. March 31st. Go to MLB.com, they have posted the schedule. It's an effort to start earlier, to alleviate the cold conditions for the post season.

So I guess we can consider most of the Opening Day will start in April. Usually the 31st is just one popular game.
I didn't start betting until the September of last year, do books make plays for Exhibition games Spring Training?

[Pair of 5s Sir]

So I guess we can consider most of the Opening Day will start in April. Usually the 31st is just one popular game.
I didn't start betting until the September of last year, do books make plays for Exhibition games Spring Training?

Yes some do, 5Dimes puts out an Exhibition MLB line. There are tight limits on the wager.

Also, welcome to the Contrarian Observation Tower, I don't believe we have seen you in this thread. Welcome.

[mlb]

... shouldnt have to bail in mid summer for various reasons .. might be able to enjoy the whole season this time .. good luck and you know I will be in and out like always

[Pair of 5s Sir]

... shouldnt have to bail in mid summer for various reasons .. might be able to enjoy the whole season this time .. good luck and you know I will be in and out like always

I wouldn't call it bailing. It's a combination of success and wanting to take family vacations without the hassels of the grind.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

... shouldnt have to bail in mid summer for various reasons .. might be able to enjoy the whole season this time .. good luck and you know I will be in and out like always

Mlb you are ok in my book and as such, you are considered a chartered member of the Contrarian Mafia with full rights and privileges including an ********** pass to the Observation Tower.

[mlb]

Mlb you are ok in my book and as such, you are considered a chartered member of the Contrarian Mafia with full rights and privileges including an ********** pass to the Observation Tower.

much appreciated .. thank you sir ... i love your selections ... looking forward to continued success

[Pair of 5s Sir]

I see that 5Dimes has posted some MLB props for the WS and Pennant. For you contrarians out there, I look for value with a team from each league. I ladder the selection to win the Division, Pennant and World Series. Last year my selections were the Reds and Twins. To no avail, they won their divisions, bringing some nice + units to the Contrarians. Additionally, I played the Over Reds 69.5 for season wins. Clearly a winner.

Would of been great to see them advance further in the post season, but what can you do. + units and + money are always good.

I am in the process of selecting my two teams for 2011. I can tell you that I am seriously looking at the Houston Astros. Nice + plus money to say the least. The Americna League, I am still pondering. Will let you know when I nail the decision.

Beware O Contrare

[JMobile]

Yes some do, 5Dimes puts out an Exhibition MLB line. There are tight limits on the wager.

Also, welcome to the Contrarian Observation Tower, I don't believe we have seen you in this thread. Welcome.

I was here during the last part of the season posting in the forum, but I don't think in your thread. I did put the Giants winning it all the day they were able to defeat Halladay. From that point, Bochy knew how to deface Halladay and the Phillies. I did predict that Sanchez was going to be the only pitcher to make the Giants lose in the WS. I'm sure that the thread is still hanging around somewhere. But I'm okay I guess and I love this game. I usually won't make my predictions until September because trades and expansion teams really make a difference.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Good morning gentlemen from the Contrarian Observation Tower, it is indeed a beautiful morning. I know you everyone has been studying up on MLB at every moment. At this point, I send out a Pair of 5s shout out to my man Mlb for his support. Shortly, a cast of characters including TheLock, TheJewBear will be joining us frequently through B-ball. I want to take this opportunity to plug BeatingBaseball, his second year to the SBR community. His thoughtful posts are something else. A hidden gem in the SBR family.But more about him another time.

As always, all views are welcomed.

[Mr. Jones]

Nice to meet you. I've been around forever but only started posting several months ago. Can't wait for bases to start. Good Luck to you sir.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Nice to meet you. I've been around forever but only started posting several months ago. Can't wait for bases to start. Good Luck to you sir.

Welcome to the Tower. Perhaps you will drop in more often.

Straight, legit, BS. Just ask around.

[BeatingBaseball]

Well…beat the drum…and hold the phone…the sun came out today!

We’re born again…there’s new grass on the field. - John Fogerty


Welcome Back, 5's.

Looking forward to 7 months of action on the world’s greatest game.

BB


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTl-NnuLjaE

[mlb]

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Well…beat the drum…and hold the phone…the sun came out today!

We’re born again…there’s new grass on the field. - John Fogerty


Welcome Back, 5's.

Looking forward to 7 months of action on the world’s greatest game.

BB


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTl-NnuLjaE

Awesome video, the boys in the Observation Tower are all jacked up now. Welcome to BeatingBaseball. To all the Contrarians who follow my thread, I want to personally introduce you to BeatingBaseball. Even though we do not share similar selection philospophy, he is clearly the most knowledgeable guy I know regarding bases. His upcoming thread is comprehensive, thoughtful and downright excellent.

To BeatingBaseball, you get bestowed with VIP status in the Contrarian Observation Tower. It's starting to get crowded in here.

Beware O Contrare

[JMobile]

I saw the Padres schedule and it looks like the Padres home opener are getting the Giants @Petco Park. I have to see this team play in spring training to get an idea of what the line-up is looking at. Last year they had the Braves in their home opener and on the 2nd day, the Padres had a blow up game scoring over 19 runs in that game. And that is the Padres, they get some offense explosions 1-2 a month.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Well Contrarians had do you feel now. One day closer to the start of the season. It will be interesting to see how well the betting public will fair with the Phillies this year. As you know, they will win probably 140 games this year. . Seriously, every team basically wins 50, loses 50. It is the other 62 that makes the difference. Looking at the money you will be laying with the Phillies, it will take an incredible record to achieve major plus units when selecting Philly. This undoubtedly plays into the hands of the contrarians.

Your thoughts are appreciated, please sound in.

[BeatingBaseball]

For what it’s worth:

If you look at the combined career numbers of Halladay-Lee-Oswalt-Hamels, you find that as a group - in almost 1000 games and over 6600 innings – these four guys have a W-L record of 481-275. That’s an aggregate personal winning percentage of .636.

Of course, there’s no single number by which you can assess a rotation or a pitching staff - let alone a team – but as single numbers go, that .636 is a pretty good one.

If the 2011 Phils do end up playing at .636 it would translate to 103 regular season Wins.

More importantly – at least to us – is that a .636 win expectation commands an average expected fair value, no vig price of just a hair under -1.75.

Looking at these four pitchers alone, based on their recent form and their ages (33, 32, 32, and 26) - there is no reason to believe that (barring injury) this rotation should not produce at their career average numbers. Of course, there are still many other variables up in the air re the 2011 Phils that are independent of the rotation - not the least of which is the impact of the loss of Werth, who was really their best overall athlete. They lost a lot there, both offensively and defensively, and it leaves their already very LH lineup even more out of balance. Another cautionary note – a trend that has to worry Charlie Manuel (no matter what he says) - is the long term decline in the productivity of Howard, Rollins, Utley and the rest of a lineup that looks now increasingly vulnerable to quality LH pitching.

There’s clearly a lot of handicapping ahead – but if I had to make a play with or against the Phils in all 162 games in 2011 and I had to make those plays right now – that -1.75 number would have my attention.

BB

[Pair of 5s Sir]

For what it’s worth:

If you look at the combined career numbers of Halladay-Lee-Oswalt-Hamels, you find that as a group - in almost 1000 games and over 6600 innings – these four guys have a W-L record of 481-275. That’s an aggregate personal winning percentage of .636.

Of course, there’s no single number by which you can assess a rotation or a pitching staff - let alone a team – but as single numbers go, that .636 is a pretty good one.

If the 2011 Phils do end up playing at .636 it would translate to 103 regular season Wins.

More importantly – at least to us – is that a .636 win expectation commands an average expected fair value, no vig price of just a hair under -1.75.

Looking at these four pitchers alone, based on their recent form and their ages (33, 32, 32, and 26) - there is no reason to believe that (barring injury) this rotation should not produce at their career average numbers. Of course, there are still many other variables up in the air re the 2011 Phils that are independent of the rotation - not the least of which is the impact of the loss of Werth, who was really their best overall athlete. They lost a lot there, both offensively and defensively, and it leaves their already very LH lineup even more out of balance. Another cautionary note – a trend that has to worry Charlie Manuel (no matter what he says) - is the long term decline in the productivity of Howard, Rollins, Utley and the rest of a lineup that looks now increasingly vulnerable to quality LH pitching.

There’s clearly a lot of handicapping ahead – but if I had to make a play with or against the Phils in all 162 games in 2011 and I had to make those plays right now – that -1.75 number would have my attention.

BB

Thank you BB for chiming in on this "chalky" issue. As a statistical experiment BB, taking the other side of a Phillie match in games where you are getting >+175 should yield positive, theoretically?

Conversely, would apply <-175 laying with the Phils.

What are your thoughts BB.

[BeatingBaseball]

I’m in no way saying it’s that simple, of course. But as you know, 5’s, there’s an old adage in sports betting:

“Wise guys don’t play teams – squares play teams - wise guys play numbers.”

I long ago concluded that adages become adages for a reason. I’m a firm believer that you have to come up with a number on everything you look to bet. And to get to that number, you have to start somewhere.

Once we have more information, every matchup must certainly be handicapped independently. There will always be a guy in another uniform on the same mound - and sometimes he’ll be named Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Sanchez, Kershaw, Santana, Wainwright, etc.. But I would say that with all the information we have at this moment - if you had to bet all 162 – the 1.75 theory would be a pretty solid starting point. The first macro adjustment I would want to make to it would be home/road. The next tweak would probably be their facing LH or RH starters if we had that information.

With all the crazy things that happen to a ball club over the course of a season – the streaks, slumps, injuries, bad breaks, bad calls, etc., it always amazes how the game’s bottom lines so often fall so very close to the long term averages. A .280 hitter is a .280 hitter – and I have to think that, when all is said and done, a proven .636 starting rotation will end up pretty close to a .636 starting rotation.

BB

[Pair of 5s Sir]

I’m in no way saying it’s that simple, of course. But as you know, 5’s, there’s an old adage in sports betting:

“Wise guys don’t play teams – squares play teams - wise guys play numbers.”

I long ago concluded that adages become adages for a reason. I’m a firm believer that you have to come up with a number on everything you look to bet. And to get to that number, you have to start somewhere.

Once we have more information, every matchup must certainly be handicapped independently. There will always be a guy in another uniform on the same mound - and sometimes he’ll be named Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Sanchez, Kershaw, Santana, Wainwright, etc.. But I would say that with all the information we have at this moment - if you had to bet all 162 – the 1.75 theory would be a pretty solid starting point. The first macro adjustment I would want to make to it would be home/road. The next tweak would probably be their facing LH or RH starters if we had that information.

With all the crazy things that happen to a ball club over the course of a season – the streaks, slumps, injuries, bad breaks, bad calls, etc., it always amazes how the game’s bottom lines so often fall so very close to the long term averages. A .280 hitter is a .280 hitter – and I have to think that, when all is said and done, a proven .636 starting rotation will end up pretty close to a .636 starting rotation.

BB

Thanks BB. The 1.75 theory will be interesting to chart.

[mlb]

interesting stuff guys .. keep it up

[TheLock]

January would feel incomplete without the beginning of a new Pair of 5's season thread.

You smell that odor boys? It's the scent of baseball gloves getting oiled up because there's only about 4 weeks till Pitchers and Catchers report.

The Phillies will undoubtably be the public darlings this year.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Welcome Mr. Lock to the Observation Tower. As always, you are a chartered member entitled to all privileges including a voucher for one facial by Zoe at the Wynn Resort. Welcome aboard.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Good morning Contrarians. I want to take this opportunity thank all the thread participants to date. I truly believe we will have an enjoyable season chiming in from the Observation Tower. Thus far, the 1.75 theory, futures talk and vouchers to the Wynn Resort have been the subjects discussed.

The Contrarian

[TheLock]

Red Sox will also be public darlings this year with the addition of Crawford and more importantly, Adrian Gonzales.

[terk]

its great to see some baseball chatter...is there a link to last years thread?

[Pair of 5s Sir]

its great to see some baseball chatter...is there a link to last years thread?

Welcome to the thread. I can see that this a new place for you. There is no link, to the thread. It is archived in SBR.

[robert_wrath]

Can't wait for baseball season to arrive.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Welcome to the Contrarian Observation Tower.

[BeatingBaseball]

While the Rangers were working on the Beltre deal - looks like the Cubs have been working on Matt Garza.

Could be another disappointment for the Rangers on filling the hole in the rotation left by Lee. They missed on Greinke and now may miss on Garza.

A deal with Garza would certainly give the Cubs a needed boost - but although he won 15 last year - he's actually been a little shaky/unstable at times the last two years and really hasn't completely fulfilled the huge expectations of the Rays WS year of '08. As for the Rangers - they might be better off landing Soriano from TB - he's one of the most intimidating closers in the game - and that would free up Feliz for a shot at the rotation.