thoughts on twins A's mon blacburn duchscherer and others

[AC1318]

MON:

astros
giants
tigers

[AC1318]

slightly like
redsox
pitt
TB

[sickness]

nice plays.

for me it's

atl
cws
mil

[pat venditto]

You don't bet any of your plays do you?

[AC1318]

You don't bet any of your plays do you?

I do

[AC1318]

only thing is hou never faced CC


cubs and col not in col were the only teams he faced that are any good since wearing the yellow and blue the cards been in disarray for a min so I don't count them. and he lost to chicago 6-4
pitched the reds braves padres nats giants 5 easy wins, + they have a stacked lineup so its easier I'm on astros +250 and a 12-3 wolf

[AC1318]

tigers +100

SF +180

hou +250

think twins ??? been real good and A's been slumping

[jtuck]

Wolf hasnt been anything special against the Brewers the last 3 times he's faced them, i dont care what he did 05 and previous when the brewers had to have sausage races to get sportscenter to show one of their highlights. Wolf is shit on the road. Houston crushes lefties as of late though. Cant lay the number on the brew crew.

[AC1318]

I bet by past history serves me well but we are all different, I am a history repeats itself more times than it doesn't person combined with decent play from the rest of the team on a recent tip and thats what I roll with.

I read to much on here about value does anyone even know how to calculate the value of said teams or is that just the hot term to use for betting. I am yet to see so many of the "value" plays pay off.

The lines are adjusted accordingly to take the value away and make it square

[AC1318]

value was with marcum and the jays today +192 vs beckett that was value

and for the simple reason of marcum 4-0 vs beckett 3-6 against each squad

keep it simple bos was overhyped cause they beat up on texas a couple days

joke they were beaten down like a circus animal by toronto

[jtuck]

I bet by past history serves me well but we are all different, I am a history repeats itself more times than it doesn't person combined with decent play from the rest of the team on a recent tip and thats what I roll with.

I read to much on here about value does anyone even know how to calculate the value of said teams or is that just the hot term to use for betting. I am yet to see so many of the "value" plays pay off.

The lines are adjusted accordingly to take the value away and make it square

I honestly don't know if this is right but i think it is. I'll figure out about what the fair odds for the game should be in my eyes. As an example I'll say Houston +230. Then i use the kelly calculator and enter the current price for Houston, +240, in the odds. Then in the Win Prob. box i enter the percent chance that i give Houston of winning, which is 30.3%. It tells me i should bet 5.5083% of my bankroll on Houston. The higher the number the more value a play holds. Someone please correct me if I'm way off base here.

[AC1318]

I honestly don't know if this is right but i think it is. I'll figure out about what the fair odds for the game should be in my eyes. As an example I'll say Houston +230. Then i use the kelly calculator and enter the current price for Houston, +240, in the odds. Then in the Win Prob. box i enter the percent chance that i give Houston of winning, which is 30.3%. It tells me i should bet 5.5083% of my bankroll on Houston. The higher the number the more value a play holds. Someone please correct me if I'm way off base here.

I don't know much about the calculator
but why 30% why not less ? why not more?
and I don't fluctuate my amounts I bet, I start with an amount and I stick with that amount be it for all straight bets.

but tell me more about the kelly criterion calculator I guess it is you use

[AC1318]

how well does it work for you

besides your picking the probability percentage of houston winning so really your telling yourself to play 5.5% of your roll, right?

[jtuck]

To find the odds to percentage use the odds calculator and enter the odds you've capped the game at in the U.S. Odds box and hit convert. The number in the implied probability box is the percent chance you gave the team to win. I dont know much about Kelly at all but it helps to determine which games to go big on and which to stay small. For a flat bettor, i think it can be useful because when you cap a game and get a number very much above 6-7% max or are getting most of your plays above 4-5% then you know you are missing something when you cap and need to look at the game again, because finding that big of an advantage over bookmakers on sides in a major market is very very rare.

[AC1318]

slightly like
redsox
pitt
TB

slightly pitt +1.18 1-0

2 left

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Have to like the Twins here imo - Oakland are comfortably the worst hitting team in the mlb, where Twins are top 8. With Blackburn's home form, Twins just need a few runs and they highly likely win.

Best of all, got -135 on them :-)

[AC1318]

twins are rolling I just thought the line is cheap oak been bad and duch also been bad

but I agree twins all the way

[AC1318]

tigers +100

SF +180

hou +250

think twins ??? been real good and A's been slumping

SF +1.80

2 left

[AC1318]

bold = best

tigers +113
boston -115
houston +260
pitt +118 winner
TB -105
SF +207 winner

twins -140

[fifawcs]

I like your plays today

[AC1318]

tigers +113 winner
boston -115 winner +100
houston +260 loser -100
pitt +118 winner
TB -105 winner +100
SF +207 winner

twins -140 loser

[AC1318]

tigers +113 winner
boston -115 winner +100
houston +260 loser -100
pitt +118 winner
TB -105 winner +100
SF +207 winner

twins -140 loser

NYG -1 also a winner

[ZBOIZ]

take minny 2morrow

[jtuck]

As soon as you can get it. I bet that thing goes of at atleast -225 tomorrow

[AC1318]

201