Front Page MLB Picks (Sat., Aug 16)

[Willie Bee]

Houston Astros -106 vs Diamondbacks

Game Time: 08/16/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Houston's eight-game winning streak came to a screeching halt on Friday in Arizona's 12-2 rout. Look for the Astros' offense to turn it on Saturday night against the Diamondbacks.

Our Saturday night MLB selection is on the Houston Astros at home in Minute Maid Park over the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The D-Backs have made what they hope is a significant move to light a fire under their sagging offense by trading for slugging outfielder Adam Dunn from the Cincinnati Reds. Dunn may be a career .247 hitter, but he is a huge presence in the middle of a lineup, with the ability to hit tape-measure shots and he will certainly cause opposing pitchers to try to pitch around him, which should benefit the hitters below him in this lineup. So far, the trade seems to be paying off as Dunn has had hits in each of his four games with Arizona, and his new team is 3-1 since acquiring him, including Friday's 12-2 thrashing of this Houston club. Although Dunn only went 1-for-4 with no RBI in this game, the four men batting behind him went a combined 8-for-15 with nine driven in.

The 'Stros had been red-hot before Friday's debacle, winning their last eight games in a row behind what seems to be their own brand of a rejuvenated offense. But Friday's game featured probably the best pitcher in the National League (if not in all of baseball) in Arizona's 18-game-winner Brandon Webb, so Houston should be quite pleased to have gotten that over with in the first of this three-game series. Tonight the Astros should have a much easier time of it facing 23-year-old right-hander Yusmeiro Petit who, despite an ERA of 3.12 and only six walks in nearly 35 innings, sports a record of only 1-3.

Petit only has one outing over five innings this season, which means that Arizona will probably have to rely quite heavily on its bullpen in this game, and that is a scary proposition lately for the Diamondbacks. Take the Astros.

Free Pick: Astros -106

[Willie Bee]

Byrd, Boston Red Sox -110 vs. Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays

Game Time: 08/16/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Larry Ness | experts.covers.com

The Red Sox have been solid at home with a 43-16 record and Paul Byrd got the best of Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay a week ago. Back Boston with Byrd against Toronto.

How much have the Red Sox missed Manny? It seems the obvious answer is not very much! Manny Ramirez was sent to Los Angeles on July 31 but the Red Sox are 10-3 in August, averaging a robust 7.23 RPG (had averaged 4.94 RPG prior to that).

Boston enteres this game 71-51 overall and with a 43-16 mark here in Fenway where they've outscored the opposition by an average of 5.95-to-4.00 RPG. Despite typically high prices to overcome here at home, the team is plus-$1,882 vs moneyline, second in all of MLB to only the ever-surprising Tampa Bay Rays.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays come to Boston for a three-game set with a 28-34 record on the road, getting outscore 4.23-to-4.27 RPG. Incredibly, Toronto opened the favorite in this game, although by late-morning on Friday, the Red Sox are now the small favorite (you think?). Now no one puts any more emphasis on starting pitchers than I do, but the linesmakers are really giving too much credit to Roy Halladay and not nearly enough credit to Paul Byrd, while totally ignoring Boston's home dominance.

Halladay is a terrific pitcher but let's look at his '08 record. He's 13-9 with a 2.76 ERA, with the Blue Jays going a very mediocre 13-11 in his starts. Regulars know I love to compare how teams do with that game's starting pitcher on the mound against how they do when he's not on the mound. Doing the math finds the Blue Jays are hardly any better with Halladay on the hill, as they are 13-11 (.542) with him and 49-49 (.500) without him. That's clearly "no big deal!"

He's never had much success vs Boston, posting a 10-11 (4.66 ERA) lifetime mark in 31 starts (Jays are 13-18) against the Red Sox. These last two years, he's made seven starts vs Boston (two this season and five in '07), going 2-4 with a 4.86 ERA (the team is 2-5).

As for Paul Byrd, he was coming off a superb 2007 season in which he went 15-8 but he a had a terrible first half for the Indians (3-10). However, how can one ignore his 4-0 mark since the break, where he's allowed just four earned runs over 29 innings (1.24 ERA)? His most recent start for the Indians (before his fortunate trade to Boston) came against these Blue Jays in Toronto and he was matched up against Halladay. Pitching for a Cleveland team which is just 23-38 on the road as we speak, Byrd outdueled Halladay in a 4-2 win. So here, pitching in front of a Boston team which is not only 43-16 at home but 32-12 in Fenway vs right-handed starters (averaging 5.9 RPG), why shouldn't he best Toronto and Halladay again? And why shouldn't the price on him be steeper?

Halladay's matchup with Byrd, making his Red Sox debut, was originally scheduled for Friday but rain postponed the series opener. Assuming the weather cooperates, Boston gets the win I predicted last night, a day later.

Free Pick: Red Sox -110

[Willie Bee]

John Lackey, LA Angels -142 at Cleveland Indians

Game Time: 08/16/2008 03:55 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

Fausto Carmona has struggled for the Indians since his return from the DL. The Angels definitely have the pitching edge with John Lackey in Cleveland on Saturday.

The Halos take on the Tribe at Cleveland's Progressive Field in Game 2 of this weekend series when the Angels' John Lackey takes on Fausto Carmona of the Indians in a matchups of right-handers.

Lackey owns a sharp 2.73 ERA on the road this season and is 4-1 in his team starts during the day. On the flip side, Carmona's 5.44 ERA at home this season is a run-and-a-half worse than his 3.95 road ERA. Back Johnny Angel here today as the Halos improve to 9-1 on Saturday.

Free Pick: Angels -142