Thursday Value Plays

[fifawcs]

I went 1-1 +0.82 units yesterday.

Orioles -122
Pros: Daniel Cabrera is a very inconsistent pitcher. However, he has been alright this month and has good numbers in his two career starts versus the Indians. He is opposing a Triple-A pitcher who has not such great numbers and is in fact a southpaw. The Orioles love to hit lefties and should have no problem handling Zach Jackson in his first major league start.

Cons: Zach Jackson has an advantage since the O's have not seen him yet.

Nationals +140
Pros: Today is the day that these Nats will beat the Mets. After dropping the first two games of the series, the Nats are looking to avoid a sweep when they send Collin Balester to the mound. You all may be thinking that I am crazy for fading the best pitcher since the All Star break in Oliver Perez. Perez, however, has struggled this season versus sub .500 opponents. Mets are 1-6 in Perezs last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Mets are 0-5 in Perezs last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. He has been known to pitch down to worse teams but bring his A-game when facing worthy opponents. Perez also struggled against the Nats earlier in the season, giving up 5 earned runs in 6.2 innings pitched. In his career versus them, he is 2-3 with a 5.74 ERA in 6 games. He is also a bad road pitcher.

Cons: The Nats suck.

[ryanXL977]

Florida !!!!!

[fifawcs]

Actually Ryan, I think Florida is a trap. I think Wellemeyer will pitch well today and will certainly give them a run for their money. Good luck though.

[ryanXL977]

says the guy who liked phils and padres last night.

traps dont exist you silly bastard!!! come on fifa. traps? what are we basing this on?

[fifawcs]

You see, I liked those two, but I didn't bet them. I am basing it on current performance. A trap is a play that seems like a no-brainer but when you investigate it a little more, it isn't as good as you once thought. I think the Brewers are the same deal. People see Ben Sheets facing Jake Peavy and they are thinking easy money. But the reality is that Peavy is a beast at home and it is anyone's game.

[ryanXL977]

i dont think any game is easy money, any game, ever
peavy can dominate and sheets can have an off game, happens all the time
wellerymeyers not good and florida generally does not lose 2 in a row, has a good pitcher on the mound and a good pen behind him
no easy money but i like fla

[fifawcs]

Look at Wellemeyer's numbers this month. 2.84 ERA .95 Whip. The way I see it, the game could go either way. Good luck.

[ryanXL977]

wellermeyer is garbage dude. garbage

[Wilforth]

Mets are 1-6 in Perezs last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Mets are 0-5 in Perezs last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. He has been known to pitch down to worse teams but bring his A-game when facing worthy opponents.

All that don't mean much today. It's doubtful that the Nats can outscore the Mets tonight. Three teams are likely to sweep their present series: Cubs, Brewers and Mets.

[ryanXL977]

i keep tellin him perez record vs a team with a losing record means nothing. it could mean he is due, or gonna lose again

[fifawcs]

There is no sense in arguing this since nothing will change. We will see how they do.

But for the record, it would be a coincidence if Perez only faced 2 teams and pitched poorly against them.

Versus sub .500 teams:
Seattle 9.00 ERA
Houston 6.00 ERA
Dodgers (at the time they were) 7.50 ERA
Pittsburgh 10.80 ERA
San Fran 162.00 ERA
Washington 7.94 ERA

If that is not proof enough, then I don't know what is.

[ryanXL977]

badbeat bodog, can you please come in here and help

[Deke101]

If anything can happen, then fifa has a 50/50 chance of winning tonight, and thats the same odds as every other pick on the board...50/50. If Perez's numbers mean nothing, and Wellemeyers numbers mean nothing...then obviously all that matters in baseball is the bullpens. And if the bullpens have good numbers, then it could mean they are due for a bad outing, or that they will continue to be solid...which is also the same situation as DiceK tonight. So in the end..what does matter? the price you get on your bet? It's too easy to make a case to either side and argue all day long about plays...

Not trying to start anything at all ryan...just saying a play is a play and if he wants to take Nationals because of Perez's numbers, then power to him if he wins...

[Deke101]

Also, Perez has bad numbers against Washington...
If I'm right...the Mets have no road sweeps this season.

Balester's numbers are bad, but so were Bergmann's numbers when he was 1-8 with a 4.33 ERA and he threw 7.0 innings with 1 earned run and the Nationals won at Colorado as +200 dogs. Nobody called that one...anything can happen with the Nationals...there gonna be big dogs through the rest of the season but they are gonna get wins here and there.

[fifawcs]

I agree Deke. I'm not saying they are the best team because they clearly are not. But any team can beat any team on any given day. That is the beauty of baseball and baseball capping.

[BearBryant]

it has value, bet it fifa

[fifawcs]

Thanks BearBryant. BTW, who is the chick in your avatar?

[BadBeatBodog]

I like the Nats tonight.

Fifa, that is an interesting theory, and those numbers support it. However, the sample size is too small for me to declare the evidence enough to support it. It can easily be coincidence.

[fifawcs]

I wasn't the one who thought of it. The guys on the yes network brought it up before the Yanks-Mets game. Also, I have read it on MLB.com and on covers.com.

Look at the teams he has done well against this season:
Rangers, Yankees, Marlins, Phillies

There have been a few exceptions to the rule. For example, he pitched well against the Reds who are a sub .500 team. Bear in mind that they do not hit lefties well. It seems like the teams who hit lefties well have a lot of success against him: Angels, Mariners, Astros, Dodgers, Nationals

[BadBeatBodog]

It's also a little bit of cherry picking stats. Houston is a good offense, especially versus lefties, and he struggled versus them this year. He struggled versus Anaheim. He struggled versus Milwaukee and Pittsburgh.

[BadBeatBodog]

The sample size is too small to say for sure. Those cherry picked stats don't prove it to me.

[fifawcs]

He only faces so many teams in a season. I think that in August you kinda have to accept those stats for the rest of the season. Each season is a clean slate for pitchers.

[BadBeatBodog]

The bad offenses he has faced and struggled against hit lefties well (or better than righties): Seattle, Washington, SF, and LAD. That is not a coincidence. I do not buy this theory.

[BadBeatBodog]

He only faces so many teams in a season. I think that in August you kinda have to accept those stats for the rest of the season. Each season is a clean slate for pitchers.

Right, but that doesn't mean you ignore sample size warnings. I'm sorry but I am not going to come to any conclusions based off a handful of starts.

[fifawcs]

either way, we are on the same side. so good luck.

[BadBeatBodog]

Indeed

[ryanXL977]

ollie perez is about to be better vs sub 500 teams

phils tonite, PHILS!!

[fifawcs]

He is looking sharp. I'm considering taking the Phils/Dodgers over 8.5 at +100

[BadBeatBodog]

Hit it fifa.

I don't know what to make of Ollie. He was very lucky in terms of BAbip in the first half. It has regressed so far in the second half, hovering around .295, but he has continued to dominate hitters. Maybe he is finally putting it together.

[Deke101]

Take Philly/LAD Over:

According to every prop...

Total H+R+E Over 27 -135
Phils Over 4 -135
Dodgers Over 4 -130

People are pounding the overs in those categories. Not saying they are right, but its weird that those bets are negatives, but then over 8.5 is even...

[fifawcs]

You make some good points. I do think both offenses can produce and neither pitcher is very good. I'll add it on.

[fifawcs]

What a dumb idea. I know the game isn't over but I got too greedy.

[ryanXL977]

i did it too
i didnt know myers would be this good

damn