Front Page Picks (Wed., Jul 30)

Willie Bee · 07-30-08, 10:21 AM

Kansas City Royals +120 to keep Oakland A’s reeling

Game Time: 07/30/2008 03:35 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

The A’s can’t hit their way out of a paper bag, and they really cannot be trusted laying odds vs. anyone. Even Bannister has pitched well in Oakland, so go Royals.

The Oakland Athletics have lost five of six games to drop to the .500 mark at 53-53, and we would not lay any odds with this team right now, making the Kansas City Royals the play as underdogs.

The Athletics have struggled offensively all season, but they have actually gotten worse lately, batting a pathetic .215 over their last 10 games. Now Sean Gallagher has allowed two earned runs or less in all three of his Oakland starts, but he does have a terrible 1.73 WHIP in an Athletics uniform, and that propensity for putting men on base led him to allow four unearned runs in a 14-6 loss to Texas in his last start. He needs all the support he could get, and Oakland is simply incapable of providing that right now.

Granted, Brian Bannister has been terrible on the road this year for the Royals, going 2-5 with an 8.60 ERA. However, even he has appreciated facing the light-hitting Athletics, allowing exactly two runs in two of his three starts in Oakland over the last two years. Also the Royals are on a bit of a run having won three straight, as they won the last game of their series vs. the Tampa Bay Rays before traveling to Oakland.

As bad as Bannister has been on the road, we actually trust the Kansas City offense to scratch out runs against Gallagher more that we trust Oakland to score runs vs. anyone right now, so we will gladly take these plus odds.

Free Pick: Royals +120

Willie Bee · 07-30-08, 10:23 AM

New York Mets -120 at Marlins

Game Time: 07/30/2008 07:10 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | 10starpicks.com

The Mets are 16-5 in their last 21 games and 12-7 the last 19 times they've taken the field on the road. New York is the play Wednesday night in Florida when they take on the Marlins.

The Mets remain a half-game up on the Phillies in the National League East thanks to the big win last night in Florida. New York is one of the hottest teams in baseball, 16-5 over their last 21 games. Since mid-June, the Mets are 12-7 in its last 19 road games. The recent run has been a mix of solid hitting and pitching as they have outscored the opposition by a total of 39 runs. With the win last night, the Mets are 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in Florida.

Florida has been hanging around in the division but has been unable to put any sort of run together. The Marlins are 6-7 over their last 13 games including a pedestrian 4-4 mark at home. The bats have fallen off over the last 10 games as they are hitting just .211 over that span while averaging a mere 3.4 Runs Per Game. It actually goes back even further as they have averaged only 3.6 RPG over their last 19 games. Scoring against the Mets is no better as in the eight meetings this year, they have averaged only 3.9 RPG.

That offense will likely struggle again tonight as it goes against one of the hottest pitchers around in Mike Pelfrey. He haD a horrible May, going 0-5 with a 5.35 ERA in six starts but the last two months have been tremendous going 7-0 with a 2.56 ERA in 10 starts. Seven of his last 11 starts have been quality outings with another falling just short by a half-inning. His control has been outstanding as he has walked just one batter over his last four starts. The Mets are 10-1 in his last 11 starts.

Josh Johnson is coming back slowly as he has recorded three consecutive solid starts after coming back from Tommy John surgery. He has one quality start in the mix with the other two falling short because of a limit on pitch counts. You will see that he is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in three career starts against the Mets but he has not faced them since 2006. He has faced the big guns of Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado and David Wright only a combined 17 times. In his three starts, he has a WHIP of 1.53 which is very below average. Play New York for 1½ units.

Free Pick: Mets -120

Willie Bee · 07-30-08, 10:24 AM

Houston Astros -115 wave magic Wandy against Cincinnati Reds

Game Time: 07/30/2008 08:05 PM -
By: Peter Loshak | sbrforum.com

The Astros look to finish off a home sweep of the sinking Reds tonight when Houston sends left-hander Wandy Rodriguez against Cincinnati right-hander Edinson Volquez.

On Wednesday's MLB card, the betting odds have installed Houston as a very small favorite at home over the slumping Cincinnati Reds, and I think there is decent value on the side of the Astros with their overnight line of about -115.

The main reason this line is this low is because of the heady reputation Reds starter Edinson Volquez has engendered in 2008, his first season putting it all together on the major league level, realizing his well-touted potential, and earning an appearance in the All-Star Game. Not to take anything away from Volquez’ explosive success early in the year, which was legitimate and probably not fluky, but as might be expected with a young starter gaining his first taste of elite success in the majors, things have taken a turn for the worse as the season has worn on.

Volquez’ two post-break starts were shaky, and signs of him coming back down to Earth even before the break were apparent in his July and late June starts as well. According to Volquez, he is not “hitting his spots” like he was earlier in the year, and he is searching for mechanical reasons why that might be. That is not a good thing to hear, and unless he comes up with a solution for this start he is likely to be in for more of the same at Minute Maid Park on Wednesday.

Fellow Dominican Wandy Rodriguez, on the other hand, has been quite effective since the break. His strikeouts are up, he has avoided giving up big innings and home runs, and was able to quiet two solid lineups in the Cubs and the Brewers his last two times out. If Rodriguez is able to be a master on the mound as he is often able to consistently be when he gets into a good groove, he will likely outpitch Volquez, which will give Houston a big edge.

All in all, things are looking up for Houston and Rodriguez at the moment, and not so up for Volquez and the Reds, so I’ll take a shot with the low line on Wednesday and play Houston -115.

Willie Bee · 07-30-08, 10:25 AM

Saunders, Angels +160 finish off Red Sox sweep in Boston

Game Time: 07/30/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Bob Harvey | bobharveysports.com

It's been almost exactly seven years since the Angels last swept three from the Red Sox at Fenway Park. That changes tonight when the Halos put the broom to Boston.

This is an absolute gift. The public infatuation with Josh Beckett and the Red Sox makes this one of the great plays of the year.

The Angels will be gunning for a sweep of the Red Sox and at the same time looking for their eighth straight win over Boston. They’ll send 13-game winner Joe Saunders to the mound as a huge underdog. What am I missing? The Angels are the best team in baseball, they just added Mark Texiara and they’re +160? I’m all over this.

The Angels are 66-40 and lead the AL West by 11½ games over Texas. Los Halos have outscored Boston 52-31 overall and won their last four at Fenway Park, where they haven’t swept a three-game series since July 31-Aug. 2, 2001. Los Angeles has also won 11 of its last 13 overall.

Saunders won at Fenway on April 24, when he gave up three runs in six innings. He didn’t get a decision against the Red Sox on July 19 at home after yielding two runs in 6.2 innings. However he is 3-0 with a 2.87 ERA in five lifetime starts against Boston.

Beckett matched up with Saunders and lost to the Angels on July 19 after giving up four runs in eight innings. The Angels have the best road record in the majors at 34-19. Look for them to make it 35 victories away from the “Big A” as they record a historic sweep at Fenway.

Free Pick: Angels +160

Willie Bee · 07-30-08, 10:26 AM

Take Texas Rangers on the run line vs. Seattle Mariners

Game Time: 07/30/2008 08:05 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

Texas right-hander Vicente Padilla should have a big night against this Seattle lineup, and that makes the run line the best play when the Rangers host the Mariners.

The Texas Rangers (55-52) and Seattle Mariners (40-66) prepare to play their third tilt of a four-games series this Wednesday night in Arlington. Last night the Rangers took out the Mariners with a bottom of ninth, come-from-behind 11-10 win. The loss for the Mariners was their 14th in their last 19 overall.

With the ace of the Texas pitching staff, Vicente Padilla (12-5, 4.56 ERA), going to the hill, the positive momentum of last night's victory should carry on into this battle. The hard-throwing Nicaraguan right-hander has not looked particularly strong of late, but has been dominant against Seattle this season, going 1-0 along with a stingy 2.00 ERA in 3 starts. All three games ended in a Rangers win.

Meanwhile, his pitching opponent from the Mariners, Miguel Batista (4-11, 6.67 ERA), has been very inconsistent this season and has suffered through numerous bouts of fatigue, as was the case in his last outing when he left the game after throwing just 82 pitches. The veteran righty did not look bad in that effort, and put his team in a position for a win, but as has been the case all season, the Mariners bullpen found a way to blow a lead. Batista is 0-2 in his career at Rangers Ballpark, along with an ugly 7.64 ERA.

The Rangers have the superior pitcher on the mound tonight, the superior offense, and home field advantage. In this spot, against a downtrodden team with absolutely no confidence, they very much look like the right side.

Final Notes & Key Trends: The Rangers are 6-0 when Padilla starts against AL teams like Seattle with a on-base percentage of .320 or less this season, with the average margin of victory clicking in at 4.7 RPG. The Mariners are 17-40 in their last 57 meetings in Texas. Play Texas on the run line.

Free Pick: Rangers -1½ (+116)

Willie Bee · 07-30-08, 10:27 AM

Minnesota Twins +103 vs. White Sox

Game Time: 07/30/2008 08:10 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

Livan Hernandez has been solid at home for Minnesota while Chicago's Gavin Floyd has struggled on the road. Take the Twins as small home dogs against the White Sox.

The Minnesota Twins host the Chicago White Sox in the third of this four-game series in the Metrodome when they send Livan Hernandez to the hill against Gavin Floyd in a matchup of two pitchers with opposite home/road dichotomies.

That's confirmed by Hernandez' 3.91 ERA at home this season as opposed to his 7.22 ERA on the road. Floyd, on the other hand, owns a 5.29 ERA on the road and a 2.49 ERA at home this year.

With Floyd in rocky KW form (13 walks and 12 strikeouts) in his last three starting efforts, and 5-12 in his last 17 road starts, look for Hernandez to improve to 9-1 at home in July here tonight.

Free Pick: Twins +103

Willie Bee · 07-30-08, 10:28 AM

Colorado Rockies -145 Cook up a win at Pittsburgh Pirates

Game Time: 07/30/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Dave Cokin | playbook.com

The Rockies were heating up before traveling to Pittsburgh. Now looking to avoid a sweep at the Pirates, Colorado sends their ace Aaron Cook to the hill at PNC Park.

The Colorado Rockies were thought to be sellers with Brian Fuentes and perhaps even Matt Holliday on the trading block. Then the defending NL champs got hot and there was thought they might instead look to buy a player for the stretch drive.

Needless to say, back-to-back losses against the short-handed Pirates aren't doing much to ease the confusion. This is a very big game for the Rockies as they desperately need to avoid getting swept by the lowly Bucs. With their tough righty Aaron Cook on the hill, they're in good shape.

That outlook gets even better with Zach Duke (34 hits, 24 ER in his last 19.1 IP) on the bump for the hosts. I'll spot the odds with the Rockies.

Free Pick: Rockies -145

Willie Bee · 07-30-08, 10:30 AM

New York Mets -120 behind Pelfrey at Florida Marlins

Game Time: 07/30/2008 07:10 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

The New York Mets are finally playing up to their payroll's potential, and part of their surge is due to Mike Pelfrey who takes the mound tonight in Florida against the Marlins.

The red hot New York Mets are 16-5 in their last 21 games. The Mets are 8-3 in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.

New York is 12-5 in their last 17 vs. a right-handed starter. Mike Pelfrey is on the mound tonight and the Mets are 10-1 in his last 11 starts. The Mets have won his last five road starts.

The Marlins have also been playing well but they have struggled with Josh Johnson on the mound. Florida is 2-5 in his last seven starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Marlins have lost four of his last five home starts.

The Mets are 13-3 in their last 16 trips to Florida. Play on New York.

Free Pick: Mets -120

Willie Bee · 07-30-08, 10:31 AM

White Sox -110 to win one vs. Twins

Game Time: 07/30/2008 08:10 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Gavin Floyd has been very solid for the White Sox this season with a 3.57 ERA, while Livan Hernandez may be the luckiest 10-game winner in the majors given his 5.21 ERA. Chicago avoids the sweep.

The Minnesota Twins have taken the first two games of this series, but we are looking for the Chicago White Sox to salvage a win tonight and avoid the sweep.

The White Sox have seen their first place lead over the Twins trimmed to one game in the loss column, but their starter Gavin Floyd has been solid all season, and we look for him to enable them to open a little daylight. Floyd is 10-6 with a very good 3.57 ERA in 123.2 innings, and he is a perfect three for three in Quality Starts vs. Minnesota this year, allowing a total of five earned runs and only 12 hits in 21.1 innings. Should he need some relief, the White Sox are still ranked fourth in the majors with a 3.29 bullpen ERA.

Now Livan Hernandez has a similar 10-7 record, but he has taken an entirely different route getting there, with a very high 5.21 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. He has benefitted from 5.77 runs per game of support, but he does not figure to get that much help here with Floyd as the opposing pitcher. Also, Hernandez was lit up the last time he faced the Sox, surrendering seven earned runs and nine baserunners while lasting just four innings.

We will go with the better pitcher and what we feel is the better team in a game that is close to a pick here.

Free Pick: White Sox -110