I still can't get over Milwaukee +140

[No coincidences]

You have the better team with their ace throwing in a huge spot with a low total. Now granted, Gallardo's track record against St. Louis is awful and granted, Carp has been on fire for a while now. But still, +140? In a playoff game? For the better overall team? With a total of 7?

[lakerboy]

Mil- shit road team
Carp- just won in philly in game 5 with a flawless outing
Cards- just blew out the brewcrew in mil


What is the line supposed to be?

[og4667]

seems like your too wrapped up in price. you need to just pick a winner, then decide whether the price is right. took the cards -148, not crazy about the juice but I like the side.

[Love The Action]

I have the cards set at -141, so I dont think vegas is too far off on this one....

You may be overvaluing the brewers in this series. In reality, despite the brewers having the better record, these two teams match up pretty equally in a series. Carp is the better pitcher...not by a ton, but he has the overall edge in advanced stats...

[No coincidences]

Mil- shit road team
Carp- just won in philly in game 5 with a flawless outing
Cards- just blew out the brewcrew in mil


What is the line supposed to be?

I figured it'd be about +125 -- especially with a low total.

[Jago2008]

That's what I said about Texas last night @ +126... Annnnnnnnnnnnnnd we all know what happened. DAMN YOU DOUG FISTER! *clenching fists as camera pans away*

[No coincidences]

I guess technically it opened at +120/-140 at 5Dimes.

Brewers weren't a shit road team down the stretch of the season were they LB?

[lakerboy]

I guess technically it opened at +120/-140 at 5dimes.

Brewers weren't a shit road team down the stretch of the season were they LB?

not that story again. they didnt beat anyone good on the road down the stretch either. they were busy beating up on the pits/mets and astros of the world. they lost the road games so far in the playoffs. anyways i am taking mil tonight.

[No coincidences]

not that story again. they didnt beat anyone good on the road down the stretch either. they were busy beating up on the pits/mets and astros of the world. they lost the road games so far in the playoffs. anyways i am taking mil tonight.

And the Cardinals were beating who exactly? I'd understand your argument if Milwaukee was facing some monstrous opponent tonight on the road, but they aren't.

I'm just not sold on this Cardinals resurrection. The Brewers are still the better team in this series, they have a better lineup, and the pitching is relatively equal tonight. +140 is absurd.

[BigDofBA]

I'm a Cards fan but I dint feel great about them winning tonight.

I'm shocked that they're juiced so much against Milwaukee.

Do people think Carpenter is going to replicate what he did in Philly? I don't.

No bet on the game for me. I'm just going to root on St. Louis.

[Love The Action]

And the Cardinals were beating who exactly? I'd understand your argument if Milwaukee was facing some monstrous opponent tonight on the road, but they aren't.

I'm just not sold on this Cardinals resurrection. The Brewers are still the better team in this series, they have a better lineup, and the pitching is relatively equal tonight. +140 is absurd.

If you view +140 as absurd, why aren't you making a big play?

[No coincidences]

Do people think Carpenter is going to replicate what he did in Philly? I don't.

There's a big difference between Philly's lineup and Milwaukee's. Mainly Gallardo's track record vs. StL is still a tripping point.

If you view +140 as absurd, why aren't you making a big play?

I'm thinking about it.

[BigDofBA]

And the Cardinals were beating who exactly? I'd

In the final month the Cardinals swept Atlanta, took 3 of 4 in Philly beating Halladay and Lee, and they also took 3 of 4 from the Brewers.

So 10 of their wins in the final month were against top NL teams.

[lakerboy]

And the Cardinals were beating who exactly? I'd understand your argument if Milwaukee was facing some monstrous opponent tonight on the road, but they aren't.

I'm just not sold on this Cardinals resurrection. The Brewers are still the better team in this series, they have a better lineup, and the pitching is relatively equal tonight. +140 is absurd.

The cards won 3 of 4 in philly. 5 of 6 versus mil. 3 of 3 in atl. and 2 out of 3 versus the amazing cubs who were one of the better late season teams. i dont know what else to tell you. i am taking the brewers myself.

[No coincidences]

The cards won 3 of 4 in philly. 5 of 6 versus mil. 3 of 3 in atl. and 2 out of 3 versus the amazing cubs who were one of the better late season teams. i dont know what else to tell you. i am taking the brewers myself.

So why would you take Milwaukee tonight?

[lakerboy]

So why would you take Milwaukee tonight?

Because I think Mil has some value at +140 and i dont think carp can do what he did last game again. Mil has some guys who do well in St louis. I cant wait to hammer Randy Wolf. He runs shit in st louis.

[No coincidences]

Because I think Mil has some value at +140 and i dont think carp can do what he did last game again. Mil has some guys who do well in St louis. I cant wait to hammer Randy Wolf. He runs shit in st louis.

So we agree.

[lakerboy]

So we agree.

yes. i was just giving you the reasons on the line thats all.

[BigDofBA]

Anyway, I have a feeling the Cards win two out of three in St. Louis and the Brewers win game 6&7 at home.

Brewers in 7. They are too good at home to lose a deciding game there.

Cards must win all 3 gms in St. Louis IMO and I think they lose at least one.

This is why homefield is so important.

[No coincidences]

yes. i was just giving you the reasons on the line thats all.

OK. I still think it should be around +125, but since that's where it started basically, I'll say I'm splitting hairs and leave it at that.

[t-wizzle]

No coin, i am on st. louis. Simply a gut play for me but if you are torn on this one there is no reason to pass up the value. Milwaukee with Gallardo at +140 doesn't come around often.

[toddorts]

You have the better team with their ace throwing in a huge spot with a low total. Now granted, Gallardo's track record against St. Louis is awful and granted, Carp has been on fire for a while now. But still, +140? In a playoff game? For the better overall team? With a total of 7?

I agree with you. I took the RL on the Cards, because I think there's better value there, but I think you're absolutely right that the Brewers at +140 is ridiculously priced. The Cards are the likely winner, but they aren't that likely. I calculated my own line at +124 for the Brewers. I could take either the Cards RL or the Brewers ML. Both have good value, I just see a bit more value with the RL.

seems like your too wrapped up in price. you need to just pick a winner, then decide whether the price is right. took the cards -148, not crazy about the juice but I like the side.

Um, no. Even in the most lopsided of matchups in baseball, the favorite is still only going to win about 75% of the time. And those are really rare. Most matchups fall in the 53-60% range. Betting baseball is all about finding value. I may think that the Yankees are going to win a game, but I'll also figure out what the probability of them winning is, and that's how I set my own line. If the opposing team is getting better odds than my line indicates that they should be getting, then I'll bet on the team that I think isn't the likely winner. Over the long haul, that is how you make money. Just trying to pick winners and only betting when your projected winner is at a good price will still make you money, but your total profit will be much less over time, because you're passing on lots of dogs that you should be taking because of their value.

[Love The Action]

Um, no. Even in the most lopsided of matchups in baseball, the favorite is still only going to win about 75% of the time. And those are really rare. Most matchups fall in the 53-60% range. Betting baseball is all about finding value. I may think that the Yankees are going to win a game, but I'll also figure out what the probability of them winning is, and that's how I set my own line. If the opposing team is getting better odds than my line indicates that they should be getting, then I'll bet on the team that I think isn't the likely winner. Over the long haul, that is how you make money. Just trying to pick winners and only betting when your projected winner is at a good price will still make you money, but your total profit will be much less over time, because you're passing on lots of dogs that you should be taking because of their value.

Ding, ding, ding, we have a winner....great post!

[Sawyer]

Chase Cards to win at least one game at home. Brewers are fantastic at home but when it comes to road, they sux. serious difference between home and away records.

[og4667]

save your money, cards win tonight.

[No coincidences]

If the Cards are such a great play, why is their TT only 3.5 (-108/-108) at Pinny?

[Pew Pew]

To the guys who responded to the OP: You are talking to a delusional, paranoid dummy. Try reasoning with him is impossible.

[lunchbawks]

This is one of those games where St Louis chokes big time.

Ace on the mound, bats are hot...just when the cards have you believing they sh-t the bed

[No coincidences]

To the guys who responded to the OP: You are talking to a delusional, paranoid dummy. Try reasoning with him is impossible.

So why open the thread?

I agree lunch -- don't know how many times the Cards have burned me in a big spot at home, and this is as big as it gets for them.

[DrStale]

This is one of those games where St Louis chokes big time.

Ace on the mound, bats are hot...just when the cards have you believing they sh-t the bed

Yesterday you said Detroit was going to mail it in and Fister was going to get rocked.

[mrlegend28]

75% on St.Louis and the line isnt moving much. I'll take Milwaukee +

[lunchbawks]

Yesterday you said Detroit was going to mail it in and Fister was going to get rocked.

Well today is a new day. Congrats if you had the Tigers

[No coincidences]

75% on St.Louis and the line isnt moving much. I'll take Milwaukee +

The line jumped 8 cents at open -- I'd say that's pretty significant.

[Love The Action]

I guess you figured out why they were +140...Gallardo got lit up first inning...

[BettingWizard]

brewers aren't the better team. This series is over