Momentum is only as good as tomorrow's starting pitcher

[BennyFang]

An old adage in baseball. Ever heard it? Not to oversimplify but we all know that is the primary input data used to set lines.

I bring it up with regard to tomorrow's games. I not a parlay kind of guy but it seems like a good angle on the Phils & Brew. Both pitchers are aces and are horses...can be effective well into the 120+ pitch counts. Take the bats out of the equation, then....

Only serious responses:

Generally speaking, statistically based, how can Carpenter be seen as the better pitcher than Halladay?

Generally speaking, statistically based, how can Kennedy be seen as the better pitcher than Gallardo?

No such thing as locks but stats are really what we have to go on.

Home field advantage as well.....

I'll draw on this example as a Braves fan.....the '95 Indians had an incredible lineup, best I've ever seen...... Lofton, Visquel, Thome, Manny Ramirez, Belle, Alomar, etc. (Compare it to last year's Giants) Except for one of the six games, the Braves' starting pitchers dominated them. Good pitching beats good hitting, period. Right?

Please rip this to shreads! I need to step back at look at this more objectively. Help me.

[KapKing]

I just created a thread in the last 2 hour where i posted my complete opposite parley for tonight

im on ari + stl at +548

[BennyFang]

I just created a thread in the last 2 hour where i posted my complete opposite parley for tonight

im on ari + stl at +548

BOL man, we'll agree to disagree. I will say I've since looked at Kennedy's stats (primary, not secondary) and it is a lot closer than I originally thought. Maybe Philly/Az but not both dogs. Halladay won't fail, he may go 9 tomorrow.

[BennyFang]

You take St Louis out and Gallardo has dominated the league since the last week of July, that is what I'm hanging my hat on at this point.

[Avenger]

I don't like Halladay's history v Cards. The big bats hit well against him, vice-versa for Carpenter (except for Utley).

Halladay coming off two big performances. I don't have an official stat for Halladay after a shutout and a no-no (if you forgive the first inning) but it's not good.

I think FF will be close but Halladay getting pulled after a 2 ER inning. Then it's up for grabs. Card's pen is awful but Card's bats may save them. It's really a coin toss. I'll take the better value. And that hurts since I'm a huge Philly fan.

[BennyFang]

I think FF will be close but Halladay getting pulled after a 2 ER inning.

I doubt this to be true unless it's the 7th inning or later and the game is close. They will stick with him if he,for example, gives up 2 runs in the 4th, even in an elimination game. I think they will stick with him or Lee longer than anyone else on the staff. Although, Lee is supposed to be available in relief.

Also, having last at-bat in an elimination game is a big deal, IMO, especially in a close game....still torn.

[seau45]

how does over 7 look in the Cards/Phils?

[BennyFang]

No good feel on that. Close game is under, pretty sure, but I'm weary of Philly blowing Carpenter up for 5, 6 runs, esp 2nd time through the order. Most on under, I'm not playing it.

[BettingWizard]

Not true, just ask the Cubs in 2003 and the Giants when they lost to the Angels. Those game 6 crushing losses led to game 7 wins for the other team

[KapKing]

No good feel on that. Close game is under, pretty sure, but I'm weary of Philly blowing Carpenter up for 5, 6 runs, esp 2nd time through the order. Most on under, I'm not playing it.

loll im on the over on both both of ari and stl games..


BOL dude. ill watch these games tonight...maybe i will win ..maybe you will... but for sure it will be 2 nice game 2 watch...

[BennyFang]

Not true, just ask the Cubs in 2003 and the Giants when they lost to the Angels. Those game 6 crushing losses led to game 7 wins for the other team

Those were emotionally draining losses for the Cubs and Giants. I don't think either game yesterday is in that category. Different story if Cards or D'backs had scored 4 in the 9th for a walk off win.