Front Page Picks (Thu, Jul 24)

Willie Bee · 07-24-08, 10:44 AM

Play Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles Over 8

Game Time: 07/24/2008 04:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

The Orioles and Blue Jays have seen the Over cash in 14 of their last 16 meetings. Look for the scoreboard to light up today when Baltimore hosts Toronto at Camden.

On Thursday afternoon, our MLB selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles going over the total at Camden Yards.

These two teams completed about two-thirds of their game on Wednesday night before foul weather halted the proceedings and they will resume play of that game at noon and then play this second game after it concludes. In the regularly scheduled game, right-handed ace Roy Halladay will go for the Jays, while the talented but inconsistent right-hander Daniel Cabrera will take the mound for the Orioles.

The O's have found some pop in their bats in the second half so far, scoring five or more runs in five of six games since the return from the break. Third baseman Melvin Mora received some additional cortisone shots in his sore shoulder and that, along with the three days off, seem to have worked wonders for the 36-year-old cornerman as he has been just about the hottest hitter in baseball the past six games.

Mora may follow in the footsteps of fellow Oriole Luke Scott. The O's outfielder acquired from the Astros in the Miguel Tejada deal during the offseason, was awarded the AL Player of the Week award last week by hitting .528 with three homers and six RBI.

Not counting Wednesday's rain-shortened game, the Over is 14-2 in the last sixteen meetings and 7-1 in the last eight at Camden Yards. Take the Over.

Free Pick: Blue Jays-Orioles Over 8 (-115)

Willie Bee · 07-24-08, 10:46 AM

Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays -138 at Baltimore Orioles

Game Time: 07/24/2008 04:05 PM -
By: Ben Burns | covers.com

The Blue Jays have proven to be far superior to the Orioles in day games, and with their ace Roy Halladay on the Camden mound, Toronto will hang a loss on Baltimore.

Both the pitching matchup and the starting time favor the visitors. Roy Halladay has a 2.86 ERA and 0.955 WHIP his last three starts. For the season, he has a 2.85 ERA and 1.087 WHIP on the road.

On the other hand, Daniel Cabrera has a 5.22 ERA and 1.48 WHIP at home. Over his last three starts, he has an ugly 6.32 ERA and a brutal 2.043 WHIP.

Halladay has also been much more successful in this series. He's 17-4 (team is 18-5) with a 2.93 ERA over his career vs. the Orioles. Conversely, Cabrera is 4-7 with a 4.48 ERA and 1.438 WHIP against the Jays.

The Jays are 20-12 when playing during the afternoon, averaging 4.9 runs in those games. Baltimore hasn't been nearly so successful. Indeed, the Orioles are 9-22 when playing during the day, averaging only 3.9 runs per game. Consider a play on Toronto.

Free Pick: Blue Jays -138

Willie Bee · 07-24-08, 10:47 AM

TB Rays -117 at Kansas City Royals

Game Time: 07/24/2008 04:05 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | covers.com

The Rays moved back into the AL East lead yesterday and look to maintain that edge on the road now. Take Tampa Bay when they begin a series in Kansas City against the Royals.

It is fade time once again for the Royals. The Royals have been one of the streakiest teams in baseball and losses have come in bunches and there seems to be no letup. Since winning six straight games at home, Kansas City is 3-8 over its last 11 games at Kaufman Field.

The issue has been pitching as the staff has allowed an average of 6.5 Runs Per Game over that span. The offense has been part of the problem of late as KC plated just one run in each of the last two games against the Tigers and has scored four runs or fewer in six of their last 10.

Tampa Bay took its series against the A’s and now hits the road with a slim lead in the American League East. This is the type of series that they need to win in order to remain a contender in the division. The Rays are a totally different team on the road than they are at home as proven by their six-game road losing streak. Prior to that, they won five of six away from home in the previous roadtrip so the ability is there. Tampa Bay is 19-7 in its last 26 series openers.

The Rays send Matt Garza to the hill and he has been a great addition to the staff despite his shortcomings on the road. He has a 3.68 ERA on the season and while the best efforts have come at home, he is in the midst of a great run. He has allowed three runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts including two on the road. He is coming off one of his best outings of the season and he now faces a team that even though he has never defeated, has success against. In four starts against the Royals, he has a 3.42 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.

Kansas City sends Gil Meche to the mound and it has certainly been an up and down season for him. He is coming off a solid effort against the White Sox in his last outing but he has struggled putting consecutive quality starts together. He has had back-to-back quality performances only four times and only four of his 10 home starts have resulted in a quality outing. He fared well against the Rays earlier this season but in his career he is 1-4 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in nine start. Play Tampa Bay for 1½ units.

Free Pick: Rays -117

Willie Bee · 07-24-08, 10:48 AM

Rays and red-hot Garza -120 to crown KC Royals

Game Time: 07/24/2008 08:10 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Matt Garza has seven Quality Starts in eight outings, and all he did last outing was hurl 7.2 scoreless innings while allowing just two hits. Gil Meche has been disappointing and has a 5.25 ERA here at home. Play the Rays tonight.

Matt Garza of the Tampa Bay Rays has pitched as well as any pitcher in the American League over the last month or so except for one bad start in Cleveland, and with the Rays winning both of their series since the All-Star break, they get the call as small road chalk in this series opener vs. the Kansas City Royals.

The Rays certainly stumbled into the break, losing seven straight games including getting swept by the New York Yankees and the Cleveland Indians. However, the break appears to have done them good, as they have taken two out of three games from both the Toronto Blue Jays and the Oakland Athletics. Meanwhile, the Royals were just swept here at home by the Detroit Tigers.

Now Garza has been brilliant, and he is coming off of an outing vs. the Blue Jays where he tossed 7.2 scoreless innings and allowed just two hits and walked nobody. This marked his seventh Quality Start in the last eight starts, and it was also the fourth time in seven starts that he allowed one run or less, and the second time in five starts that he allowed two hits or less. He also posted a Quality Start in his only outing vs. the Royals this year.

Gil Meche was supposed to be the ace of the Kansas City Staff, so he must be considered a disappointment at 7-9 with a 4.48 ERA. Most disturbing is the fact that he has been even worse here at home, where he owns a poor 5.25 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. The last time he faced the Rays here, he was lit up for six earned runs and nine baserunners in six innings.

Finally, if some relief is needed, the Rays also have the superior bullpen, ranking sixth in the majors with a collective 3.39 ERA while the Kansas City pen is sputtering along with a 4.20 ERA. This seems like a reasonable price, all things considered.

Free Pick: Rays -120

Willie Bee · 07-24-08, 10:51 AM

Halladay & Cabrera keep Blue Jays and Orioles Under 8

Game Time: 07/24/2008 04:05 PM -
By: Steve Merril | 10starpicks.com

Both starters, Toronto's Roy Halladay and Daniel Cabrera of Baltimore, look to bounce back from poor outings in their last games. Play Under when the O's host the Jays.

Last night’s game was suspended in the sixth inning due to rain and will be completed before this game today. This means the original start time (12:35 pm ET) has been pushed back until after the suspended game is completed.

Both offenses struggled last night as the game was 1-1 in the sixth inning when suspended and this should continue in the second game today as my pitcher performance ratings predict a solid outing by both Roy Halladay and Daniel Cabrera.

Halladay is coming off a rare loss last Saturday when he allowed an uncharacteristic five runs versus Tampa Bay. He should bounce back with a strong showing today as he still has an excellent 2.94 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in all 20 starts this season, with a powerful 125-24 strikeout/walk ratio.

Baltimore’s Cabrera is also due for a bounce-back after allowing seven runs versus Detroit last weekend. Cabrera entered that game with a 12-6-1 Under record in his first 19 starts this season and a solid 1.40 WHIP, so he should respond well today.

This is also a quick revenge game for Cabrera as he just loss versus the Blue Jays on July 8. Play Under the total.

Free Pick: Blue Jays-Orioles Under 8 (-104)

Willie Bee · 07-24-08, 10:52 AM

KC Royals +106 hook the TB Rays

Game Time: 07/24/2008 08:10 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

Tampa Bay has not fared well on the road the last two seasons in July, and it only gets worse for the Rays tonight when they open a four-game set with the Royals in Kansas City.

The Royals open a four game series with the Rays in Kansas City this evening when Gil Meche takes on Tampa Bay's Matt Garza.

Life on the road during the month of July has been real tough on the Rays the last two seasons as evidenced by their 2-19 mark. With Meche's 3.82 ERA at home considerably stronger than his 5..25 ERA on the road this season, and Garza's 5.91 road ERA dramatically worse than his 2.10 home ERA, we will play the Royals.

Free Pick: Royals +106

Willie Bee · 07-24-08, 10:53 AM

St. Louis Cardinals +125 vs. Brewers

Game Time: 07/24/2008 08:15 PM -
By: Bob Akmens | who2beton.com

The Cardinals are in deep you-know-what if they let the Brewers finish off a four-game sweep in St. Louis today. Bank on Tony La Russa and the Cards not allowing that to happen.

This is an unusual comp play for me in that there is no clearly discernible strength vs weakness matchup. See, if you handicap for an living, you really want games where black matches up vs white – you don't want a lot of shades of grey – and a lot of "maybes."

Do I dislike Ben Sheets? Hardly. The Brewers are actually 7-3 his last 10 away from home - an extraordinary performance given the vast majority of pitchers are net losers away from home. And the guy's got a 2.88 ERA - which is like one-and-change 20 years ago.

So, why would I like the Cards as a dog here? Several reasons:

Todd Wellemeyer's home numbers are actually equal-to or better than Sheet's road-numbers – particularly that ultimate arbiter stat: most net profit won.
This is no ordinary game or ordinary series. I've done this a long time and can never remember an entire league where just 3 teams are playing better than .535-ball. And those 3 teams are locked in a virtual-tie in the Central Division: the Cubbies, the Brewers and the Cards. To make a broad generalization – but one that's often true – important series like this are often shaded toward the home-team for so many reasons, not the least of which is very large partisan crowds.
Managers often decide such series. I'm not a big fan of Ned Yost. Any guy who still brings in Eric Gagne - who makes my heart stop when I see him walk to the mound and I've bet the Brewers for large chunk of change - is not a good manager. But let's hope this no-more-than-a-spectral-image of his former Cy Young-self comes into this game - because his career ERA vs St Louis is a lovely 8.00 or so.

In the other dugout we have, in my estimation, the best manager in all of baseball, who knows when and how to make the right moves, and utilizes whatever talent he has available as optimally as I've seen.

You might guess I'm a big Tony La Russa fan.

Look for the Cards to come away with a win in the series finale as a +125 dog in this 8:15 p.m. matchup.

Free Pick: Cardinals +125

rake922 · 07-24-08, 11:39 AM

When does the Orioles game actually start?