Yesterday: 3-1, +2.27
Sides: 198-160, +72.25
Totals: 39-32-5, +3.85
Overall: 237-192-5, +76.1
2* Twins -130
1* A’s +133
Sides: 198-160, +72.25
Totals: 39-32-5, +3.85
Overall: 237-192-5, +76.1
2* Twins -130
1* A’s +133
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Tough card tomorrow, I'll be lucky to find one play.....
early lean: Florida Marlins +135Comment -
If you think the card tommorrow is tough than take White Sox!!!
They will destroy K.C!!! BELIEVE MEComment -
I actually like the Rangers a lot tomorrow. The Rangers have crushed Baker in his career versus them. Padilla also has some success against the Twins.Comment -
I will be on the Athletics as well. Lets cash it RJT.Comment -
Rjt I respect your capping skills so I would like to pick your brain if possible about why you like the As (onlooker if you see this I'd love for you or anyone else to chime in as well).
A's OPS vs. RHP: .710
A's OPS vs. LHP: .666
Duchscherer: 3.35 FIP 4.17 xFIP
Pettitte: 3.78 FIP 3.61 xFIP
Why is Doosh's xFIP over 4 while his ERA is under two? Well his unsustainably low BAbip of .200 (the lowest of anyone with at least 60 IP) might have something to do with it. In addition, his LOB% of 80 (his 4.17 xFIP suggests 72%) and HR/F% of 5.4 (league average is 10%) are both also due for major regression. The guy DOES average only 5.46 K/9 after all. The one thing he has going for keeping a relatively low BAbip is Oakland's insanely good defense; according to THT, Oakland's defense is 41 runs above average. Toronto is a close second at 39 RAA but the next closest team is CHW at 13 RAA."Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"
"Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"Comment -
I am on both too RJT.....Comment -
Oak TT U was an easy play IMO and the Yanks came through, although it was a close one. RJT I'd still like to hear your thoughts as I'm always trying to improve myself and gain knowledge."Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"
"Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"Comment -
Sorry. Didn't see this until now.
Yes, I agree with everything you said -- Duchscherer's extremely unlikely to continue to perform at the rate he's demonstrated thus far in '08. But that doesn't mean he's not a very good pitcher. The same things that made him an effective reliever much of his career -- plus command/low walk totals, high groundball rate -- should continue to translate into Quality Starts, of which he's rolled off 11 straight (including today). Certainly he's aided by playing for the A's and in one of the better pitchers' parks in baseball (although his road splits are quite impressive as well). Furthermore, I think the market reflects the widespread belief that he's in for a bit of a drop-ff, as roughly half of a season as a starter isn't enough to accurately label him an ace. Regardless of what I expect from Duchscherer going forward, in regard to the game this afternoon, I felt the line was a little wide. I feel even better about this knowing I got +133 and Oakland closed +123. I think there was little reason to believe Duchscherer wouldn't turn in a solid outing, which he obviously did. That would leave the outcome largely up to Oakland's offense, which struggles against LHP, as you said, to do something about Pettitte. Didn't happen, Pettitte was outstanding today, with Giambi's HR being the difference in the game.
Ultimately, whether you felt the line was short, accurately priced or whatever is entirely subjective and only something you can answer. While I agree that Duchscherer won't keep up his first-half pace, I felt today's game provided a favorable line in Oakland's favor. Even though the play didn't cash, I beat the closing line by 10 cents, which is all you can really hope to do in baseball.Comment -
Tough to give up a combined three runs in two games and go 0-2.Comment -
I guess my thinking is that he is overvalued and Pettitte undervalued, and the Oakland offense is legitimately terrible versus lefties. So the line for the Yankees is valuable. Is that flawed reasoning for such a small sample size?"Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"
"Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"Comment -
It's not flawed reasoning at all. I disagree, as I don't think any member of the Yankees could be termed "undervalued", but that doesn't make your basis for liking NYY wrong.
My advice would be to trust your instincts. From your comments in this thread, it's clear you felt this was a favorable line on the Yankees. That I, or anyone else, disagreed in regard to this particular game is irrelevant. If you feel strongly on a game, act accordingly.
Good luck.Comment -
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That Twins game made me angry...how do you get shutout by the Rangers, at home no less?Comment -
rjt721- This is what had me laughing, like Z so many other people were convinced that the Royals had 0% chance of winning today.
pimike-I know the Sox were favored nearly 2 to 1 when the series prices came out, but like I said earlier that was too much of a discount....the books know a lot more than we think, I would bet they know at least 80% of the series winners before the 1st games of the series start. I never bet the series before it starts, I just use the prices for reference:
I use this price information in the 3rd game only. This only works when the teams split the 1st 2 meetings. For example: the Braves are @-170 for the 3 game series vs. the Giants @ +150, the Braves win Game 1 and the Giants follow with a win in Game 2 making the series 1-1. The 3rd game opens with the Braves as a -130 favorite and the Giants+110, this draws my attention due to the fact that this is the deciding game of the series. In my opinion I see this as a perfect spot for the books to clear both bets, the series price and the game. Being the deciding game of the series I think Game 3 should reflect or be near the series price, and I would see that as too much of a discount there and go with the Giants. If that makes sense....
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Thank you RJT I really appreciate the feedback. Whenever I am against you on a play I automatically look over it again to see why I liked it, so I decided to finally pick your brain to hopefully make myself more knowledgeable as a capper."Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"
"Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"Comment
