Front Page Picks (Fri., Jul 18)

[Willie Bee]

Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays Under 8 as Burnett, Shields duel

Game Time: 07/18/2008 07:10 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com


Burnett is starting for the second straight game, meaning he is pitching with normal rest after a great outing vs. the Yankees. With Shields rested, go Under.

A.J. Burnett of the Toronto Blue Jays is pitching on normal rest after allowing just one run and six hits in 8.1 innings vs. the New York Yankees on Sunday, while James Shields has been at his best this year with extra rest like he has here. Thus, runs should be hard to come by tonight.

Sure, Burnett has been frustratingly erratic throughout his career, as he has some of the best stuff in the majors when he is on yet he cannot seem to be able to get out of his own way. However, he is very capable of going through some unhittable streaks, and that start on Sunday is certainly a step in the right direction.

Remember also that Burnett tossed a gem the last time he pitched in Tampa Bay, allowing one run and three hits with eight strikeouts in eight innings. As improved as the Rays are this season, they still have many young free-swingers in their lineup that Burnett can again take advantage of.

Now Shields has had a full week of rest since getting bombed for five earned runs and 10 hits in six innings by the Cleveland Indians last Friday. However, Shields has posted Quality Starts each of the last three times he has had at least five days of rest, posing a 2.66 ERA and a remarkable 0.89 WHIP over those starts with 22 strikeouts in 20.1 innings.

Finally, the Under is 16-5 in the last 21 head-to-head meetings between these clubs including 8-1 in the last nine meetings in Tampa, and we look for those streaks to get extended tonight.

Free Pick: Blue Jays, Rays Under 8 (-115)

[Willie Bee]

Minnesota Twins -125 stay hot vs. Texas Rangers

Game Time: 07/18/2008 08:10 PM -
By: Peter Loshak | sbrforum.com

With the starting pitching matchup basically a wash and the Twins playing at home, Minnesota makes for the best play Friday night when they host the Texas Rangers.

On Friday's MLB card, one line jumped out at me as being modestly but solidly off a bit, and that is Minnesota at home priced as a favorite in the low -120s over visiting Texas.

The Twins, perhaps the AL version of the Mets, ended the first half on an impressive and extended tear, rising from a sub-.500 record to having the fifth-best record in the AL and winding up only a game and a half out of first place in the AL Central. While the Twins were no doubt overachieving a bit, they do still nonetheless have a good core of a team, with a quality bullpen to preserve close wins at home, and I expect that they will continue on as one of the better AL team for the rest of the year and challenge for a playoff spot.

The Rangers are a solid team in their own right with some nice positives to them, but they are still just a .500 team away from Rangers Ballpark, and they are at a notable disadvantage when they go on the road to face winning teams with capable bullpens such as the Twins.

The starting pitching matchup here is basically a wash. Both starters involved can be decent but are usually pretty hittable, but the Twins will probably gain a small edge from the lefty/righty situations here; the Twins fare a bit better when facing righties, as Texas starter Kevin Millwood is, while the Rangers struggle a bit against southpaws, one of whom they will be up against on Friday in Minnesota’s Glen Perkins.

Adding it all up, I see value on the side of Minnesota, a team that has played well (32-18) and profitably (+14.4 units) at home all year long, and is currently playing some good ball to boot. If this game is close in the later innings, Texas will face a tough challenge pulling out a close win when Minnesota’s bullpen gets involved. This is a short price to pay here for Minnesota in my opinion, so I’ll be going with the Twins -125 at home on Friday night.

[Willie Bee]

Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves Under 8½

Game Time: 07/18/2008 07:35 PM -
By: Bob Harvey | bobharveysports.com

With neither team having a decent offense, and both starting pitchers in good form, the Under is the play in Atlanta when the Braves host the Washington Nationals.

Don’t let the Atlanta Braves fool you. This is a team that struggles to score runs.

Despite boasting All-Stars Chipper Jones and Brian McCann, Atlanta scored a major league-worst 52 runs from June 23-July 12. The Braves went 6-11 over that stretch, but did win their final contest before the break 12-3, routing San Diego on Sunday behind a homer and three RBIs from McCann. The catcher, who walked and got hit by a pitch in addition to going 3-for-3, has reached base in eight straight plate appearances.

Washington, meanwhile, has scored 350 runs, tied with San Diego for the fewest in the major leagues entering the break. However, the Nationals have managed to outplay the Braves in their meetings. Atlanta has lost five of its eight games versus Washington this season, and has scored a total of five runs en route to losing the last three meetings. The Braves are in danger of losing four straight in a single season to Washington for the first time since 1992, when the Nationals franchise was based in Montreal.

Supporting my argument for an Under play tonight are the season stats for both teams in terms of totals. Atlanta is 31-61-3 to the low side this season, including 19-27-2 at home. Washington is 42-52-2 to the Under overall and 21-24-1 on the road.

Jair Jurrjens, who is 3-1 with a 1.30 ERA in his last five starts, gets the ball for Atlanta. Washington counters with its winningest pitcher, Tim Redding, who has given up two runs or fewer in four of his last six outings. He had failed to record a decision in nine straight outings prior to last Friday, when he allowed seven hits in six innings in a 10-0 whitewash of Houston.

Finally Washington, which has the majors' worst record, lost 5-0 to Houston on Sunday. The Nationals, who have been shut out a major league-high 12 times, have lost 10 of their last 13 games.

Free Pick: Nationals/Braves Under 8½ (-115)

[Willie Bee]

New York Mets -120 with Maine at Cincinnati Reds

Game Time: 07/18/2008 07:10 PM -
By: Scott Spreitzer | phoenixsports.com

The All-Star break hasn't interrupted the Mets' winning streak as they stretched it to 10-straight last night. Back New York on the road Friday in Cincinnati against the Reds.

I'm laying the price with the New York Mets, with John Maine facing the Reds' Bronson Arroyo in Cincinnati.

New York has cashed 10 straight tickets and we've been on them for several of those...no reason to jump ship tonight. The Mets have gone 3-1 in Maine's last four road starts. The right-hander has held the opposition to nine earned runs and 30 base runners along the way, for a 3.63 ERA and a decent 1.35 WHIP.

While Maine has had his problems in his two career starts against the Reds, this is a different lineup we're talking about this season. In fact, Cincy is scoring just 3.8 runs per game in home night outings against RH starters.

As everyone knows, the Mets are cooking at the plate and on the field. They're averaging 6.5 runs per game in 14 July outings. And, they smacked the Reds for 10 runs on Thursday, proving the break did not cool off their red-hot bats.

I expect another big-run game facing Bronson Arroyo, who's home night ERA is approaching five. Look for the Mets to get to the Reds' pen early for the second night in a row, leading to their 11th straight win. I'm laying the price with the Mets on Friday.

Free Pick: Mets -120

[Willie Bee]

Nationals +177 at Atlanta Braves

Game Time: 07/18/2008 07:35 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | 10starpicks.com

The way Washington's Tim Redding is pitching currently, coupled with Atlanta's less than potent offense, this underdog price is too good to pass up on the Nationals tonight.

One of the best home teams, the Atlanta Braves, takes on one of the worst road teams, the Washington Nationals, and you know where our money is in this one.

Neither team was anything special heading into the All-Star break, and that includes Atlanta who went 5-9 in its final 14 games prior to the pause. Part of the reason was a dismal offense that averaged only 3.7 Runs Per Game over that 14-game span. Over their last nine home games, the Braves are 3-6 and have averaged a mere 3.2 RPG. On the flip side, pitching allowed 4.8 RPG over that span.

Washington isn’t exactly tearing things up either but one good thing picked up prior to the break and that was its offense. The Nationals had scored four runs or fewer in 15 of 18 games but have scored five runs or more in five of their last seven, averaging 6.3 RPG in those contests. It may be small, but it is progress. They have the worst home average in baseball at .233 but are respectable on the road with a .246 average. Washington has won three straight and four of five in this series.

Lost in the Nationals disappointing season has been the pitching of Tim Redding. He has been outstanding this season as he is 7-3 with a 3.85 ERA in 20 starts. This includes a 3-0 record along with a 3.42 ERA in eight road outings. Five of his last six starts have been quality outings so he has been pitching even better of late. The real kicker is the run support as the Nationals have given him 5.4 RPG which may not seem a lot but for a team averaging 3.7 RPG on the season, that is spectacular.

Tim Hudson started the season on fire and while his numbers are still solid, he has definitely not been as dominating. Most of the recent damage has been on the road as his home performances remain strong. That is a big reason the line is what it is. Of his 20 starts, the Braves are just 9-11 but seven of those wins have come at home. Also, against Washington, he has tossed seven straight quality outings.

As good as that may be, the price is too strong going up against a hurler that is pitching nearly as good. Play Washington for 1½ units.

Free Pick: Nationals +177

[Willie Bee]

Blue Jays +131 to fly past TB Rays

Game Time: 07/18/2008 07:10 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Tampa Bay's first half run came to a screeching halt with a seven-game skid before the break. Look for the Rays' woes to continue tonight when they host the Toronto Blue Jays.

Our Friday night MLB selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays on the road in the Sunshine State over the Tampa Bay Rays.

Yes, Tampa Bay is one of the major league's best first-half stories, but the wheels have come off the Rays a bit as they went into the All-Star Break on a seven-game losing streak. Tonight, Tampa Bay sends one of its best starters, James Shields, to the hill in an attempt to get back on the winning track. But I'm not going to step in front of this train that's now running off its track.

The Rays are a poor 25-47 off back-to-back losses, and we'll take the Blue Jays as a mid-sized underdog behind A.J. Burnett. Take Toronto.

Free Pick: Blue Jays +131

[Willie Bee]

Play Philadelphia Phillies and Florida Marlins Over 9½

Game Time: 07/18/2008 07:10 PM -
By: Ron Raymond | phoenixsports.com

The Over has been the trend in starts made by the Phillies' Jamie Moyer and the Marlins' Ricky Nolasco this season. Play Philadelphia and Florida over the total Friday.

The sportsbooks follow one thing and that’s money! The bookmakers opened this total at 8½ and it’s now been bet up to 9. The Phillies are riding a three-game Over streak while the Marlins' last two games have gone Over the total. In fact, seven of the last 10 games for the Marlins have gone Over the total and because the law of averages seems to be more friendly in the totals betting, let’s review some past situational trends backing up our over selection this evening.

I have a saying in sports betting: "Use past mistakes for current profits." With parity being in every sport at the Pro and College level, you really have to treat sports betting like the stock market today. Here’s a past situational trend which backs up our pick:

Whenever an MLB Road team (Phillies) faces a right-handed pitcher the last two years at night, coming off a three-run win and off a series win and a day game in their last outing, the Over is 33-13-3 (71%).

The Over is 11-8 for Jamie Moyer starts this season and 12-7 for Ricky Nolasco when he gets the nod for the Marlins. Plus, both pitchers are getting run support from their respective teams, as Moyer averages 5.53 runs per game and Nolasco receives 5.05. Play the Over and good luck.

Free Pick: Phillies-Marlins Over 9½ (+105)

[Willie Bee]

Colorado Rockies -121 vs. Pirates

Game Time: 07/18/2008 09:05 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

The Rocks won last night and will keep it going Friday vs. the Bucs. Ride the Rockies tonight when Colorado hosts struggling Ian Snell and the Pittsburgh Pirates at Coors Field.

The Colorado Rockies open a three-game weekend set with Pittsburgh when they take on struggling Ian Snell and the Pirates at Coors Field tonight.

And struggling is the operative word here as Snell has issued 10 walks to nine strikeouts in his last three starts. Worse yet, he's walked 15 batters while striking out 11 in his last four road starts. In those four road efforts he's compiled an eye-opening 13.16 ERA. Thus, it's no wonder Snell's road ERA (8.14) this season is more than double his home ERA (3.86).

Stay at home with the Rockies here as Snell continues to smell on the road tonight.

Free Pick: Rockies -121

[Willie Bee]

Cash Cardinals -130 vs. SD Padres

Game Time: 07/18/2008 08:15 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

St. Louis has owned this series of late with 51 wins in the last 71 meetings, including last night's 4-3 triumph. Cash the Cardinals at home Friday against the San Diego Padres.

San Diego has a 7-21 record over their last 28 games overall. The Padres are 3-8 in their last 11 road games. In their last 19 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, San Diego is 5-14.

In their last 55 games vs. a team with a winning record the Padres are 15-40. The Padres are 2-5 in Greg Maddux's last 7 starts overall and in his last seven road starts.

St. Louis has won three of their last four games. Braden Looper takes the mound tonight looking for his 10th win and after failing in his last couple of starts he gets the win tonight.

The Cardinals are 51-20 in the last 71 meetings between the clubs. San Diego is 9-28 in their last 37 trips to St. Louis. Play on St. Louis.

Free Pick: Cardinals -130

[Willie Bee]

Nationals, Atlanta Braves Under 8½

Game Time: 07/18/2008 07:35 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Tim Hudson is having a typical season for him, and he has owned the Nationals recently. Tim Redding has managed to go 7-3 for the terrible Nats, and he has pitched well vs. Atlanta. Take the Under.

Tim Hudson has been his usual self for the Atlanta Braves while Tim Redding could be considered the ace of the Washington Nationals staff right now, and with both offenses erratic as of late, the Under should be the way to go here.

Hudson may be just 9-7, but he has pitched better than that with a 3.13 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 129.1 innings, and he has been at his best pitching at home. Hudson is 7-1 with a 2.13 ERA in nine home starts, and he has been an absolute beast against the Nationals, allowing two earned runs or less in each of his last 10 starts against them, including allowing three earned runs in three starts covering 21.2 innings vs. Washington this year.

Redding has incredibly managed to go 7-3 while pitching for a team that is 24 games under .500 (36-60), and the Nationals as a team are an amazing 15-5 in all games that he has started. He has a decent 3.85 ERA for the season and an excellent 2.65 ERA in his last three starts, and he has allowed three runs or less in each of his last three starts vs. Atlanta.

The Braves have played the most Unders in baseball this year at 61-31-3, and that should continue here.

Free Pick: Nationals, Braves Under 8½ (-110)