- Cardinals -109, $218 to win $200
The Padres had one good run during the first half, which even bad teams do, going 12-5. Before and after that run they went 25-53, good for a winning percentage of just .321. Over 162 games that projects out to 110 losses. It takes more than a good pitcher for a bad team to win and Peavy is a case in point, as the Padres are just 4-8 over his last 12 starts. While he has dominated at home, Peavy has been less than average on the road where he has pitched to a 4.45 ERA. Kyle Lohse has been the steal of the year, having compiled an 11-2 mark for the Cards. They have won 10 of his last 11 starts. The Cards are our choice here. A full 60% of Lohse's pitched games have exceeded this total and Peavy is allowing 4.5 on the road. He is backed by a pen that has served up 2.7 additional runs per game.
- Pirates +140, $100 to win $140
Paul Maholm has a winning record and has posted a 4-0 mark with a 2.68 ERA over his last eight starts. The Rockies offense ended the first-half on a terrible note and we just don't see that change against Maholm. Colorado is decent at home, where they score 5.3 runs per game. But, the Pirates' offense is every bit as good, scoring the same 5.3 per game on the road. This season the Rockies are 8-20 vs. teams that average 4.8+ runs per game. They are also 2-12 vs. starting pitchers with an ERA in the 3.5 to 4.2 range.
- NYM/CIN u8 -105, $105 to win $100
# Under is 8-0-1 in Mets last 9 games as a favorite of -110 to -150
# Under is 5-1 in Mets last 6 overall
# Under is 6-1-3 in Santanas last 10 starts overall.
# Under is 4-1-1 in Santanas last 6 road starts
# Under is 5-0 in Cuetos last 5 starts overall
# Under is 8-2 in Cuetos last 10 home starts
# Under is 13-6-2 in Reds last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Other Leans:
SD/STL o7.5
O's
PIT/COL o9.5
GL all
The Padres had one good run during the first half, which even bad teams do, going 12-5. Before and after that run they went 25-53, good for a winning percentage of just .321. Over 162 games that projects out to 110 losses. It takes more than a good pitcher for a bad team to win and Peavy is a case in point, as the Padres are just 4-8 over his last 12 starts. While he has dominated at home, Peavy has been less than average on the road where he has pitched to a 4.45 ERA. Kyle Lohse has been the steal of the year, having compiled an 11-2 mark for the Cards. They have won 10 of his last 11 starts. The Cards are our choice here. A full 60% of Lohse's pitched games have exceeded this total and Peavy is allowing 4.5 on the road. He is backed by a pen that has served up 2.7 additional runs per game.
- Pirates +140, $100 to win $140
Paul Maholm has a winning record and has posted a 4-0 mark with a 2.68 ERA over his last eight starts. The Rockies offense ended the first-half on a terrible note and we just don't see that change against Maholm. Colorado is decent at home, where they score 5.3 runs per game. But, the Pirates' offense is every bit as good, scoring the same 5.3 per game on the road. This season the Rockies are 8-20 vs. teams that average 4.8+ runs per game. They are also 2-12 vs. starting pitchers with an ERA in the 3.5 to 4.2 range.
- NYM/CIN u8 -105, $105 to win $100
# Under is 8-0-1 in Mets last 9 games as a favorite of -110 to -150
# Under is 5-1 in Mets last 6 overall
# Under is 6-1-3 in Santanas last 10 starts overall.
# Under is 4-1-1 in Santanas last 6 road starts
# Under is 5-0 in Cuetos last 5 starts overall
# Under is 8-2 in Cuetos last 10 home starts
# Under is 13-6-2 in Reds last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Other Leans:
SD/STL o7.5
O's
PIT/COL o9.5
GL all