Wednesday Value Plays

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  • fifawcs
    SBR MVP
    • 05-14-07
    • 2888

    #1
    Wednesday Value Plays
    I went 3-0 yesterday +2.72 units. I am finally positive. Let's see if I can stay this way.

    Florida +102
    Pros: Olsen has pitched poorly of late. Baek has also pitched poorly. In this case, I am going to take the better team and the better pitcher. Baek pitched well against the Dbacks. But that was one game. Expect Florida to take this.

    Cons: None.

    Twins +220
    Pros: Yes, It's ballsy. You can say that about anytime someone take a 200+ underdog. Livan isn't as bad as many of you think. Yeah, he gives up a lot of hits. But the twins have been in every one of these games with equal or worse pitchers. Beckett is not nearly as good as you all think. He isn't as lights out as Duchsherer and those chances are good enough for me with this kind of payout. A team as hot as the Twins is trying to prevent the sweep. Here are a few important trends:
    # Twins are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
    # Twins are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a loss.
    # Twins are 9-2 in their last 11 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
    # Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.

    Cons: Livan gives up a lot of hits.

    White Sox-Royals Over 8.5 -120
    Pros: Both pitchers aren't too great. Vazquez started off strong, but has certainly returned to his old form. Bannister is the same. Some trends:
    # Over is 6-1 in Vazquezs last 7 starts vs. American League Central.
    # Over is 10-2 in Vazquezs last 12 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
    # Over is 14-3 in Vazquezs last 17 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
    # Over is 5-1 in Royals last 6 overall.
    # Over is 5-1 in Royals last 6 on grass.
    # Over is 4-1 in Royals last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
    # Over is 4-1 in Royals last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • fifawcs
    SBR MVP
    • 05-14-07
    • 2888

    #2
    2-1 +0.85 units
    Comment
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