Monday

[rjt721]

Yesterday: 3-1, +2.27

Sides: 183-147, +65.94
Totals: 36-26-4, +7.55
Overall: 219-173-4, +73.49

1* Phillies -127
1* Twins +160
1* Dodgers -123

[tab]

Twins +1.5 (-130)
baker is very underated pitcher and makes sense to take the twins on the runline. Redsox are having a difficult time scoring runs.

Dodgers -130
The braves played just about two games and the pitching staff may be thin. Hiroda is lights out at home (2-0, 3.0 era, 6 starts but with very little run support). In his last 3 home starts, Hiroda has been very tough (2-0, 23.2 innings, 10 hits, 3 earned runs). The dodgers pitching has been really good of late especially the bullpen. After 17 innings against the astros, the braves may not have anyone available in their bullpen. The braves won yesterday by overusing their bullpen. Long road trip to CAli will catch up with the braves. Even if this is a close game, dodgers have an advantage of a more rested bullpen. Dodgers were done with their game the braves finished their rain delayed 17 inning game.

[rb4033]

twins??
for me the game is "no bet"

twins = on fire
matsuzaka = pitches a lot!

[MonkeyF0cker]

The Phillies is my favorite play of the day, for obvious reasons. Good luck, rjt.

[BuddyBear]

I really disagree with the Minnesota pick quite a bit. I actually took BOS -161 not too long ago. The Twins are a good story and continue to play above expectations but on the road they are a much different ball club. At 18-20 (+2.8 betting units), they've been one of the few profitable road teams this year despite being under .500 away from the Metrodome. Upon further inspection though, you'll find that their profitability is largely b/c they've played very well on the road against NL ball clubs: COL, MIL, and SD. In fact, they went 6-3 (+4.74 betting units) in those road games. Meaning against AL clubs on the road, they are just 12-17 ( .414%, -1.94 betting units) and are no longer a profitable ball club on the road. Meanwhile, BOS at 31-10 (+16.0 betting units) continues to be a great bet at home even while laying the big chalk. And tonight they start their most profitable pitcher Dice K (+5.50 betting units) agaisnt Scott Baker who admittedly has been pretty decent both away and home for the most part. I think BOS coming back home after a long 10 game, 11 day road trip should be motivated to play very well given the current AL East dynamics and something of a revenge factor as MINN took 3 of 4 against BOS earlier this year in the Metrodome. I just think it is going to be very tough for MINN tonight to pull this one out.

But I've been known to be wrong a few thousand times here and there. Good luck Rjt.....

[BuddyBear]

And the one other thing, not to belabor the point, but you look at roughly the past month since June 10th, Minn has played relatively low quality competition which has helped to pad their numbers: CLEV (2), Washington, Arizona, San Diego, Milwaukee (2), and Detroit. Combined these teams have a record 329-379 (.465%).

In contrast, that same exact stetch since June 10th, Boston has played Baltimore, NYY, TB, Houston, STL, Arizona, Philly, and CINC and only 3 or those series were at home. Combined these teams have a record of 372-338 (.524%).

I think we'll get a much better idea of how good this twins team really is after this long road trip. It will be a real challenge.

Good luck....

[rjt721]

Regarding the Twins, I agree -- their recent strong play coincided with a stretch in which they played 15/18 at home. They haven't proven they can win on the road at a high rate, and being a young team that's probably something that will continue. I'm not at all sold on this team, and I think the ChiSox are clearly the class of the Central. However, the Red Sox have many problems right now. I think Daisuke's 9-1 record is extremely misleading, and he might be Boston's 4th best starter at the moment (he's certainly no higher than No. 3 behind Beckett and Lester). He can't consistently throw strikes and he doesn't pitch deep into games. The latter is a huge problem given the state of the bullpen, which other than Papelbon has no other member that's performing well. The pen went from the strength of the team in past years to its biggest weakness. If they had the lead through 7 innings last year, the game was basically over, with Okajima and Papelbon shutting the door. You can't say that this season, and if Matsuzaka only gives them 5 or 6, as he has in recent outings, Boston's going to have to rely on the likes of Timlin and Hansen, which definitely isn't a good thing. Baker's the Twins ace, he's been very consistent, and he should be able to keep the game competitive until the late innings, at which point Minny has a strong edge if this turns into a battle of the bullpens.

I think Tuesday is a much better alternative to lay the big number on the Red Sox.

Good luck.

[Rage1hp]

I'm getting scared that half the world has phillies today. Its surelly the right play but..

Good luck