Friday

[BiffTFinancial]

3* Reds/Pirates under 8.5 (-115)
3* Mariners/Rays under 7.5 (-115)

[BiffTFinancial]

also lean over in AZ/ATL, BOS/KC, under in CLE/DET

[Pick'nParlays]

BOL Biff I like the two plays. Also like the Boston game over.

[HoulihansTX]

Cubs +1.5

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

3* Diamondbacks/Braves over 7.5 (-120)

updated card
3* Reds/Pirates under 8.5 (-115)
3* Mariners/Rays under 7.5 (-115)
3* Diamondbacks/Braves over 7.5 (-120)

lotta juice, but the numbers want what the numbers want. BOL to all today.

[pacocn]

biff, bol i like the plays.

[BiffTFinancial]

BOL Biff I like the two plays. Also like the Boston game over.

thanks, pal. i like that one, but a little perplexed as to why Pinny would've dropped to 9'. i'd feel better if Pinny went back to 10, but we got plenty of time. BOL to you tonight.

[BiffTFinancial]

Cubs +1.5

i'm getting ready to run down and grab a late lunch now that i've booked my plays. you trying to give me indigestion, Houli?

you're such a huge Cubs fan, you can't help it, i guess.

[BiffTFinancial]

biif, bol i like the plays and i like the tribe over too.

thanks, pacocn. actually, i like the Tribe game under. gonna watch the line on that one. i love Tomlin (fun stat: no one has even attempted a stolen base on him this season; one of the best RHPs around at holding runners), but after hitting the Tribe under and RL last night, i'm also wary of having used up my luck there, so may pass and wait for next two games once we know who the umps are. BOL to you tonight.

[BiffTFinancial]

i am also putting 2u on Wolfsburg pk -119 in the Bundesliga this afternoon. my buddy just sent me his Aussie Rules plays, etc. for the weekend, will post them shortly.

[pacocn]

biff, thanks for the plays, yeah i re-read that u were on the under,
i was leaning over in that one, but it will be a no play.

[BiffTFinancial]

biff, thanks for the plays, yeah i re-read that u were on the under, i was leaning over in that one, but it will be a no play.

will probably be no play for both of us. it will be difficult for me to pass if it goes to 9, but i'm trying to remember that that's exactly how the book wants me to think.

[JA's Winners]

Cubs +1.5

Houlihans I agree on this pick...check out some of my other picks

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/1211744-jas-late-season-baseball-picks.html

[borednaz]

Biff your a total man, what about NYY vs Bal o9?
Kind of a square bet I know but with two shit pitchers I see both good for four to six so someones got win for at least a push

[HoulihansTX]

i'm getting ready to run down and grab a late lunch now that i've booked my plays. you trying to give me indigestion, Houli? you're such a huge Cubs fan, you can't help it, i guess.

Jaime garcia has not pitched longer than 5 innings in a month. he is not pitching well. He is wearing down like he has during his whole career.

[God1]

Jaime garcia has not pitched longer than 5 innings in a month. he is not pitching well. He is wearing down like he has during his whole career.

whole career? this is only his 2nd full season. And he is pitching as well as he has all season recently, xFIP for aug/july only .15 above his what it is for his season. what are you smoking

[HoulihansTX]

whole career? this is only his 2nd full season. And he is pitching as well as he has all season recently, xFIP for aug/july only .15 above his what it is for his season. what are you smoking

He has an XERA a whole Half run higher than his ERA. He is regressing, and has not been good on the road the whole season.

[SOUP]

On the under in the mariners game as well. Pitchers ballpark.... felix going against a slumping rays team and seattle is nothing to brag about offensively....3-1 win for the mariners!

[BiffTFinancial]

On the under in the mariners game as well. Pitchers ballpark.... felix going against a slumping rays team and seattle is nothing to brag about offensively....3-1 win for the mariners!

love unders at the Trop. wanted to play that one 4*, but lately it seems as if my bigger plays end up disappointing, so keeping these all same units i think. BOL to you, SOUP.

[BiffTFinancial]

my buddy's Aussie Rules, soccer, etc. plays for Saturday:

West Coast -25' (Saturday, 1:15 am). This play is based on current motivation and past results. Carlton's loss has given the Eagles an opening into the precious top 4. With Brisbane and Adelaide to go, a win here ought to put them there. The Bombers certainly need to win, too, but they are traditionally an abomination in Perth. So, I'll roll with the Eagles.

North Melbourne -18' (Saturday, 5:15 am). The Roos are still in the hunt for a Premiership spot and this is a must win for both sides. Outside of the a horrible loss to Collingwood, the Roos have been in respectable form the last half of the season. Freo, on the other hand, has faded considerably. It's possible that the Dockers come up with a performance akin to their surprising round 17 win at Sydney, but my feeling is that the Roos win this one rather comfortably – by 5+ goals.

St. Kilda -8' (Saturday, 11:15 pm). Two very different mid-table sides square off. The Saints are a squad on the come, showing solid form in the 2nd half of the season. The Swans epitomize mid-table blah. I think the Saints turn in a dominating, grinding performance. Bear in mind that the Saints often win matches with 10ish goals (and Sydney can yuck it up, too), so while the Saints may dominate, it may be a bit nervous for the line. I'll still call for a 3 goal win for the Saints.

No Tri-Nations play this week. The All-Blacks are -3 in South Africa, but they're fielding something akin to the "B" side – a final tryout, if you will, for reserves for the RWC. RSA is playing to get a positive result ahead of the World Cup. I think RSA covers as a dog, but it's just too unpredictable. I'll pass and likely play the ABs next week in Australia and then it's World Cup time!

In Germany and England, I like the following:

Liverpool PK +110 (Saturday 7:45am). Arsenal are a train wreck at the moment with sell-offs and injuries resulting in a side considerably below the lofty standards of Wenger's Gunners. Liverpool will have a full-strength side and have done much to improve their squad in the transfer market. If Liverpool had a bit more time to gel, I'd play this on the ML at +198 (which is still great value, IMO) but I'll take the PK to guard against the draw.

Dortmund -1' at +100 (Saturday, 9:30am). I'll ride with Dortmund one more time. Last season Dortmund beat Nurnberg twice by identical 2-0 scorelines. I think both sides are comparable to last season's form (I think Dortmund will surpass last season's form, FWIW) . I'm not dissuaded by last week's loss. I'll chalk that up to a young team not responding well early in the match to their first road fixture.

Nothing in the Championship I like at first glance. I think Derby is very good play at -127 at will probably play them. I'm think the lines in the Milwall-Southampton and Blackpool-Brighton flatter the home sides. I think both Milwall and Pool are good value plays, but as noted, I'm not touting value plays.

I may also have some Sunday plays. My early leans are Man City (-120) and Mainz (+151) and while I won't tout them, St. Etienne at +610 is a good value play. Spain and Scotland may also have a play between them.

2011 YTD

Aussie Rules: 17-6
Rugby: 3-0
Soccer: 5-6
CFL: 1-3

[God1]

He has an XERA a whole Half run higher than his ERA. He is regressing, and has not been good on the road the whole season.

regressing? lol. xFIP for the season of 3.24, take your ERA over to play money it's a useless statistic as is xERA(compared to xFIP or SIERA)

And besides what would his xERA being a half run higher than his ERA mean? That still makes him a well above average pitcher. I wasn't measuring him by his ERA so comparing anything to his ERA is useless

[God1]

I give up, it's like talking to a wall when I'm come back at with ERA. Have fun losing to the vig kids

[HoulihansTX]

XERA is an advanced stat, that many use. You do not use it so its obviously an irrelevant stat. Thanks now I know.

[BiffTFinancial]

this just in: Justin Verlander will not pitch as scheduled vs the Tribe on Sunday due to an apparent case of Ubaldophobia.

take that, Hot Wings!

[HoulihansTX]

Now I just need for this game to end. 4-3 is fine by me.

[God1]

XERA is an advanced stat, that many use. You do not use it so its obviously an irrelevant stat. Thanks now I know.

xFIP and SIERA are both proven to be more accurate predictors of future peformance, therefore any inferior statistic that attempts to predict future performance is useless

here's an analogy: weatherman A predicts the weather correctly 80% of the time, weatherman B is correct 60% of the time. Why even bother with weatherman B?

[t-bone]

Nice night last night biffer, keep up the good work!

Rangers/Whitesox over 8.5 tonight

[Jago2008]

LOVE the soccer picks, I'm going to tail this...

[God1]

massive bet on the astros tonight

[Redscot]

massive bet on the astros tonight

GL G1 .

Wishing "God" luck seems a bit presumptuous.

GL to you too Biff Tee!

[pacocn]

biff, nice lean on that tribe under so far.
hey do u know a good site to get x Fip and
SIERA #'s thanks man for any help in this area.

[God1]

fangraphs.com has everything, SIERA is on the advanced tab

SIERA is the best proven, publicly available tool for predicting future pitching performance

[Redscot]

fangraphs.com has everything, SIERA is on the advanced tab

SIERA is the best proven, publicly available tool for predicting future pitching performance

For example:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2586&position=P

[pacocn]

Thanks God1 and Red i will check it out

[greeny]

goodluck today biff