I have to ask this, why do guys assume RL is the play with high favorites?

[miyakuza]

Are you guys brainwashed into thinking high favorites win by a mile?

"Oh, Halladay is on the mound, RL might be a better play"

Since when do ace pitchers mean teams will win by 2 runs? Are they hitting homers themselves?

I just really don't understand the logic of seeing a high favorite and automatically some people think the RL is a better play.

I just think its pretty moronic to assume a high ML means a team will win by 2 runs or more.

[blackeyeshamus]

true.

[Duby]

The only reason RL is better on high fav is because it limits the loss in case you lose.

And it also depends which team. For example Something like 75% of yanks wins since All Star break are by 2+ runs.

[Dirty Bay Player]

Look at it this way ...

If you played a team -200 five times for $200 and went 4-1, you would win $200.

If you played the RL on a -200 favorite (say it was -1.5 for -100) five times for $200 and went 3-2, you would win $200.

The former is so expensive that you have to win 75% to come out ahead. The latter just brings value into the equation so that you have to win fewer times to get the same result (but the odds of hitting are more difficult).

I don't think it's a stupid reasoning to play run lines on heavy favorites as a rule. Maybe to do it all the time as a strategy is stupid, but there are a lot of cases where it makes perfect sense.

It's all gambling.

[miyakuza]

I understand, but so many people automatically think RL is the play before even taking into account value on the other side? Maybe thats just my way of thinking.

Robotically see a great pitcher on the mound and think RL is the play with less juice. Pitchers don't pitch no hitters, complete games on the regular.

RL is a lot less juice, but not many really think of it as a way to decrease your chances of winning as well.

[Dirty Bay Player]

Agreed for the most part. I generally prefer playing dogs, and rarely play huge favorites.

What I especially don't like doing is taking home team favorite run lines. Because if it's tied in the ninth, the only way you can cover that -1.5 is on a home run with runners on. You're basically f**'d.

[miyakuza]

I definitely agree, I just can't help but voice this out because a HUGE majority of daily threads are based upon public plays and this comes up a lot.

[HoulihansTX]

Risk less, win more. That simple.

[yisman]

Huge favorites won't necessarily win big, but it's smarter to take the favorite RL than the favorite ML when you have a team -250 or higher.

Of course, taking home team -1.5s in general hurts. They better be up multiple runs entering the 9th.

[Cappinpicks]

I personally love the D-backs +1.5 here

[Avenger]

I think Tigers RL today is a dumb pick.

I take runlines with team hitting well (Yankees, Braves, Rangers) but not aces with cold bats.

People take it to cut the juice but for some teams, a parlay is unavoidable.