Big Dan went out last night, so let's get this rolling while he gets his beauty rest. 
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Just bet against Cleveland and you will be fine.Comment -
leans
SF/FL under 8 (Volstad a concern, but his xFIP is far lower than his gaudy ERA, and he will still be pitching to the Giants wiffle ball offense; Angel Hernandez behind the plate is a decent under ump)
WAS/PHI over 7.5 (Phils might get 8 off of Wang by themselves; Halladay's starts 15-9 over; Conroy behind the plate, he's been solid on the over, 11-3 this season)
Tribe ML (lotta juice, and i readily admit that i'm Tribe homer; that said i don't usually bet on them)
MIN/CLE over 9 (trying to talk myself into this rather than the ML; DeMuth has probably been the strongest over ump this season, which admittedly is a small sample size, but it's what we've got)
still haven't gotten to much of the card, but will post thoughts here as i work my way through it.Comment -
haha, what's up buddy. i'll bet against the Tribe once they fall out of contention. until then, plenty of other options. i usually stick to totals in Tribe games since i'm not crazy about backing them either.Originally posted by Vin_vermillionComment -
Originally posted by BiffTFinancial
That's actually smart, but I usually believe people can tell what their own team is going to do better than others. Who we got - Huff today?Comment -
I agree with phillies putting up a bunch today so that over looks good. Good luckComment -
if i could make myself fade the Tribe, i'd be much better for it, but i just can't do it when the games still count. yeah, Huff today. never thought i'd say this, but Huff pitching is the thing that scares me the most about the over. he's clearly a different pitcher from the past couple of seasons, an extra 4-6 mph on his fastball, and missing a lot more bats. knock on wood, i hope that he's up for good. it would be nice to have 2 lefties in the rotation, but gotta have one.Originally posted by Vin_vermillionComment -
I have the under on the tribe game.
After seeing Huff against Minn. 7/18, I have a feeling this might be under Video: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=17010835&topic_id=&c _id=mlb&tcid=vpp_copy_17010835&v=3
Huff ERA .51, 15 k, 4 BB, .96 WHIP.
Slowey has an era of 4.51, 1.36 WHIP
If past success is the indication of future performace, I see Huff holding the Twins again, I see a 4-3, 5-2 type victory.
I have a parlay on the Cle ML -148 n under -125.
just my opinion.Comment -
forgot to mention line was @ 9Comment -
thanks for posting that. yeah, i remember watching that game, and thinking i was in the twilight zone - watching Huff dominate in a green cap. like i said, Huff is the big concern. weather will not help the over, if anything may make it lower scoring (big X factor being rain delay messing with pitchers and resulting in a bunch of runs). maybe just skip this game altogether since at the same time i don't know that i feel comfortable laying -150 with Huff, and there's a good chance of rain. parlaying Tribe with under makes a lot of sense. if you're right about how Huff will pitch today, that's a likely result so long as Tribe doesn't explode on Slowey. i hope that it hits for you, BOL.Originally posted by Jago2008Comment -
I like the MIN/CLE under as well. 9 is a high number for this one. Good luck all!Comment -
If people are throwing out stats, which I never think help me make a real decision, ...Slowey has a 1.13 WHIP or something against Cleveland lifetime. And I think whip is a much bigger indicator of how a pitcher will fair than ERAComment -
Lots of rain here in phila.. off and on all day. not sure they will get this one inComment -
If people are throwing out stats, which I never think help me make a real decision, ...Slowey has a 1.13 WHIP or something against Cleveland lifetime. And I think whip is a much bigger indicator of how a pitcher will fair than ERAComment -
i'd say that advanced stats are better than either, but Huff is just really hard to quantify. he's a totally different player than in previous years, so we really only have three games to use to evaluate. hard to argue with Jago's handicap of Tribe and under, but i flat-out won't take a DeMuth under (18-7 over) with the potential for a rain delay. will be rooting for you guys with Tribe + under.Originally posted by Vin_vermillion
so, lean
SF/FL under 8
WAS/PHI over 7'
TB/NYY FF under (waiting for line; probably 4', question is juice; Shields has pitched well vs Yanks, check out his old FFs; don't want the game under because Rays pen is so awful).Comment -
thanks pal. actually, perhaps we should make this the weather thread.Originally posted by blumpkin
rain in Cleveland, NYC, Philadelphia.
rain in Philly doesn't scare me too much on over. i tend to think that rain delays contribute to overs (though rain-outs lead to cancellations of plays, which isn't all bad). Tigers/Tribe game Tuesday was a notable exception, but it seems like rain delays hurt pitching a lot more than hitting, and it certainly isn't accounted for in the line.Comment -
Great value on twins today at +140. Great value. Everyone should bet the twins. You're nuts if you don't.
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Like em' all Biff Tee. Only concern in S.F. has been Volstads control of late. Nothing like a few free passes to get a dormant offense going.Originally posted by BiffTFinancial
You thinking Yanks total to be 8 1/2? Pitcher friendly Bill Miller behind the dish too.
Garza/Beechy like that one at 8 going under, but looks like it is fast moving down. I think the Scrubbies may play a little inspired. Zambrano incident may have brought a bit more cohesiveness to the squad.Comment -
Add Angels/Tor to over lean as well. Haren has a good record in Toronto but bad numbers. Ump is not a big factor but won't hurt here either. Righty dominant Lineup for Angels should score some off Cecil.Comment -
booked Nats/Phils over. bad move waiting around, could've had -105 and got stuck with -118.Comment -
i lean over there. my model has a range of 8.1-8.2. you're right that Rackley is not a major factor, but if anything, i score him a minor over ump. big question is the same as in Milwaukee - will the roof be open? i think that at both of those stadiums and Arizona, roof open vs closed makes a significant difference. if open here, that could push my projection well above 8.5, in which case i might well join you. BOL either way.Originally posted by RedscotComment -
Biff I have said it in other threads but Phil Tt looks solid so does the 1st to score prop.Comment -
nice, let's get it. just hope that they get to play it given the weather forecast.Originally posted by borednaz
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I just played TT O4.5 -115. Have to think if over hits in the game Phillies TT will hit. Also locked in Giants, Reds O 9, TB, Brewers -1.5. Good luck today Biff and crew. I got all fukked up last night so feeling the effects nowOriginally posted by borednaz
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At bat 11 just confirmed it boys. The rain took our money & ran.Comment -
bah. all right, back to work. still have Giants/Marlins under, and after having read up on Volstad, he's done well in his returns from the minors in the past and against Giants. time to gin up a couple more. wish that i could get behind DET/BAL over with some of the potential runs we could get from those bullpens, but i can't quite.Originally posted by borednazComment -
Originally posted by BiffTFinancial
Id wait to see the lineups in that Detroit game. This is the kind of game where Leyland will rest a bunch of the regulars. You might get the Dirks, Kelly, Santiago combo today.Comment -
good point. could easily be a 5-2 kind of game with Fister.Originally posted by HOT WINGS
at this point, leaning PIT/MIL over (waiting on roof), BOS/SEA over (highest total all season at Safeco by far), CHC/ATL under (not sure i want to play that though, Cubs so erratic plus Zambrano situation).Comment -
hey, Miller Park roof, check in pal. i don't follow you on twitter for my health. forecast look like an over wind and a 10-20% chance of precipitation, but i want firm word before i book the Brewers over.
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fukk i didnt realize we had 2 daily threads started...im still trying to get my head straight to type coherent thoughts on these but so far im leaning...
kc/cws un 8 and cws. possible parlay here.
hou/la un 7
considering Fish but it scares me. another scary one is Muts or tt ov.Comment -
it's admittedly been a clusterfuck. long-story-short, i touted the WAS/PHI over early before it was cancelled 3 hours before the game. haven't capped the HOU/LAD or NYM/AZ games yet but will soon.Originally posted by BigDan
liking a lot of overs today: PIT/MIL, BOS/SEA, TEX, OAK. concerned about the wind in Chicago (and the fact that Dunn could sit against a lefty, but he sat yesterday), but the line movement is proper. actually like CWS as a side, may do that rather than total.Comment -
Originally posted by BiffTFinancial
havnt even got to weather yet
looking now. did hear a lot of gms were gonna be rained out and/or delayed, hate that shit for totals.
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WAS/PHI and TB/NYY rained out. windy in Chicago and Milwaukee. significant change of rain in Cleveland.Originally posted by BigDanhavnt even got to weather yet looking now. did hear a lot of gms were gonna be rained out and/or delayed, hate that shit for totals.Comment -
wind at chitown seems to be blowing hard from left to right, that doesnt seem to all that advantageous for a total either way. Is there a chance it shifts?Comment -
wind from North all day according to weatherunderground, and they have an odd configuration at US Cellulah Field, home plate at NW corner.Originally posted by BigDanComment
