Talkin Sat Bases

[BigDan]

Im tired, sore, hung over, and i got a lot of shit to do today so not much time for me atm...not touching these day games as i really couldnt find anything all that thrilling to me, did grab a few later plays already...


kc/cws un 8.5 -120

min/cle u8 -110

Reds -130

sorry but i really have no motivation to say anything about these right now, seriously feeling rough and about to have to run out the door. Figured id start the thread so you guys can have at it, i should have a little time to stop back by later in the afternoon (i hope), will more than likely do something with stl gm but not really sure as of yet.


dont let me stop you guys from banging out some winners while im gone....GL everyone

[PaperTrail07]

reds baby.........................!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!

[borednaz]

Sticking to the tried & true this morning as I got spanked by the dogs yesterday. Tex -125, LAA & its under 7, very small plays on wash & pitt for value.

[I/O]

Im tired, sore, hung over

did you at least get his name and #?

Lately I've noticed bad teams that lost late, especially having the lead at some point, are shitting the bed the next game out. I've used this little angle in all sports over the years. It comes and goes, but I think later in a season, with the grind and all, it has more success. This means playing chalks, which I'm not too good at. I like to lay the run. Over the last week these have been coming in (or tying).

Yesterday SD and Minny had the lead and lost late, in the last three innings. Houston also lost late. I'll look into line reads and will play something on this later.

[BigDan]

go ahead and sign me up for..

kc+141

min+126

hoping hou rl gets bet down a little more cause +1.5 seems appealing to me in this gm, actually tempted to play the ml but not ready to make up my mind right this minute.....really gotta go so hope everyone has a good day.

[BigDan]

did you at least get his name and #?

Lately I've noticed bad teams that lost late, especially having the lead at some point, are shitting the bed the next game out. I've used this little angle in all sports over the years. It comes and goes, but I think later in a season, with the grind and all, it has more success. This means playing chalks, which I'm not too good at. I like to lay the run. Over the last week these have been coming in (or tying).

Yesterday SD and Minny had the lead and lost late, in the last three innings. Houston also lost late. I'll look into line reads and will play something on this later.

ha ha....

well that makes the play i put in on minny seem less appealing but what can i say, think minny can handle it and for some reason i like deunsing tonight. give me the lefty that you never know what you gonna get against the hot home team that struggles at times with lefties.

Certainly a angle worth looking at tho, and makes my reds play sound better at least.

[I/O]

still looking...always love dogs and Overs in day games

always love dogs in Saturday day games especially

[chantrain]

alright Dan, I'm on KC/CWS under with you. Totals make me nervous, good luck.

[Redscot]

Thoughts on Fla./SF under? Vasquez sporting a low 2's era over his last 10 starts, Timmy on the bump and both teams struggling to score runs Fla. avg 3rpg and SF 2.3rpg over there last 10 games against RHP. Looks like line will move to 7. Very tempted, but it means trusting Vazquez .

[BigDan]

guess my priorities a little messed up cause im still here trying to finish my card

Scrubbies tt ov 3.5 -105...not much to say here, got kinda lucky with the last tt ov i played against Lowe as fla couldnt bring home the runners against him, cubs certainly are not above this either but until this turns into a bad play im gonna continue taking these against this gascan. Lowe rarely gets thru 6 these days and besides fish and their pathetic effort (still got the runs late tho), At his best you gotta expect 6 in 3 er which gets us one run away, at his worst by the time he leaves the gm this will have already cashed.

[BigDan]

Thoughts on Fla./SF under? Vasquez sporting a low 2's era over his last 10 starts, Timmy on the bump and both teams struggling to score runs Fla. avg 3rpg and SF 2.3rpg over there last 10 games against RHP. Looks like line will move to 7. Very tempted, but it means trusting Vazquez .

i was real close to playing this soon as i saw it. something stopped me so i gotta look some more. you damn sure wont catch me on the over i promise that.

[t-bone]

Dan, people are gonna get buried on the Tex/Oak over today. I going to hit the under with a smile.

Tex/Oak UNDER 7.5 -110

Good luck today, T-Bone

[BigDan]

Dan, people are gonna get buried on the Tex/Oak over today. I going to hit the under with a smile.

Tex/Oak UNDER 7.5 -110

Good luck today, T-Bone

you aint lying, everywhere i look ppl are on this over. honestly im still kinda hung over and skipped out on the work i was gonna go get done, few more minutes (after my pill cocktail kicks in) my cobwebs should clear up and i will take a closer look at this one...as always thanx for stopping by bro and GL to you as well.

[borednaz]

I was reading & found a solid bet that I wish I had found before I bet the day. Tor TT under 3.

[Love The Action]

Good luck today Dan

[No coincidences]

Dan, people are gonna get buried on the Tex/Oak over today. I going to hit the under with a smile.

Tex/Oak UNDER 7.5 -110

Good luck today, T-Bone

I love this play t-bone.

[Redscot]

go ahead and sign me up for..

kc+141

min+126

hoping hou rl gets bet down a little more cause +1.5 seems appealing to me in this gm, actually tempted to play the ml but not ready to make up my mind right this minute.....really gotta go so hope everyone has a good day.

Liking K.C. in this spot and price too BigD, Hoch. has had success against the Wsox andis on a bit of a roll. Prolly be on the under too, not sure yet.

Liking that Tor/Ana under and now see Bautista is out.

Gonna look at Minny now. Not liking a hell of a lot more out there at first glance to be honest. I would have taken the Nats again today but local has it +160 range, not enough. Other games too chalky, may have to look into some -1 R/L plays.

[Love The Action]

Liking K.C. in this spot and price too BigD, Hoch. has had success against the Wsox andis on a bit of a roll. Prolly be on the under too, not sure yet.

I would rather take the under in the White Sox game. Peavy has surprised me with his endurance of late and Sox continue to find him rest with that expanded rotation. Hoch has been hot as you guys mention. A home under play on the Sox has been very profitable all season and I expect the same tonight.

[BigDan]

I would rather take the under in the White Sox game. Peavy has surprised me with his endurance of late and Sox continue to find him rest with that expanded rotation. Hoch has been hot as you guys mention. A home under play on the Sox has been very profitable all season and I expect the same tonight.

no doubt, i just couldnt pass Hoch at this number against a sox team that has continually destroyed great road trips by coming home and shitting the bed, figure they about equally as solid as only thing screwing this under is kc pen which would also be the thing i worry about with kc. i put a little more on under but +141 on what i feel is a very winnable play i had to take a little stab....

[I/O]

I'll play book...

917 Los Angeles Angels/Toronto Blue Jays Over 6½ -112*

[BigDan]

I'll play book...

917 Los Angeles Angels/Toronto Blue Jays Over 6½ -112*

these aca/ace matchups have not went well for the books, maybe it time for a change but LTA on the under and i try not to get in his way as he has been really killin it. I wish you both well.

[Razorbacks1]

Just 2 for now
TB/Nyy under 91/2 (-115)
Marlins (+135) I'll try Florida at home. Until the Giants figure out how to score runs..altho Vazquez might be what the Giants need.

[BigDan]

Just 2 for now
TB/Nyy under 91/2 (-115)
Marlins (+135) I'll try Florida at home. Until the Giants figure out how to score runs..altho Vazquez might be what the Giants need.

have a sneaky suspicion that sf bust out a little today..but ive certainly been wrong before and im sure i will be plenty more times before i die, seeing how im passing i hope i am wrong and you cash that bitch brother.

tb/nyy is just hard for me as i never trust AJ and nyy bats during the day are scary but hell boy has been in very good form and AJ is capable, it just that one AJ blowup inning and yanks potential for a crooked number at anytime that scares me.

[Razorbacks1]

Dan hate to be a dummy when you say AJ are you talking about Burnett? I thought Hughes was starting for NY?

[BigDan]

Dan hate to be a dummy when you say AJ are you talking about Burnett? I thought Hughes was starting for NY?

whoops, my bad bro, obviously im the dummy (told you i was hung over). Ok now that i realize Houghes is pitching let me just transfer over to im not sure i trust him either, more than AJ but still have never been 100% on this guy and tampa always seems to score more on the road. Honestly i never mind un on 9.5, but just not one i trust with Hughes question marks, tampa better hitters on road, and while i love hell boy nyy during the day and have now seen ths kid a few times so i question if he can hold them down again.

[BigDan]

ok i cant ignore this one any longer....

splitting bet here..

Oak +105 and un 7.5...2 separate plays going with my guy t-bone here with the under as it makes sense to me..Far as A's we are getting a team with a much better home record than tex sports on the road, much better pitcher who has historically pitched tex very tough against a guy i never totally trust, A's get back to their winning ways at home 2day and disappoint the unreal amount of ppl on tex for some reason....

[I/O]

I'll play book...

917 Los Angeles Angels/Toronto Blue Jays Over 6½ -112*

gonna press it...

905 Pittsburgh Pirates/Milwaukee Brewers Under 8½ -112*

[I/O]

just started pouring rain in Chicago fwiw

[I/O]

rain stopped, temp dropped quite a bit

adding....

919 Texas Rangers -1 +109*

Liked Cinci also but prolly gonna pass

[blumpkin]

you guys have any thoughts on the cards tt over 4.5?? Hammels has been brutal and the cards can put up runs

[Redscot]

ok i cant ignore this one any longer....

splitting bet here..

Oak +105 and un 7.5...2 separate plays going with my guy t-bone here with the under as it makes sense to me..Far as A's we are getting a team with a much better home record than tex sports on the road, much better pitcher who has historically pitched tex very tough against a guy i never totally trust, A's get back to their winning ways at home 2day and disappoint the unreal amount of ppl on tex for some reason....

Joined you here, 1/2 unit on each.

Grabbed the K.C. under as well

I am starting to formulate a very strong opinion about the Muts tonight. It centers around Pelfrey really. Dude is bad on the road. He has started 4 times in Arizona

(edit, cut and paste went to shit)
1 1/3 ip 6 er's
6 ip 5 er's
5 ip 5 er's
5 ip 3 er's

As you can see he has gotten hammered going 0-4. There is also local controversy stewing in the NY papers that he was quoted saying he didn't come into the season thinking the Muts could compete. Unnamed sources saying some players are pissed at his comments. Whatever. Still Pelfrey is fragile, has been his entire career and when the wheels fall off he usually folds mentally.

Zona's hot, Muts were feel-good for a while but now are depleted and it is setting in...they are just gonna play out the rest of the season, eventually even Collin's rah-rah gets tuned out (as a side, I think they are good fade material here on out.)

Only down side is Pelf's 2 good starts with Barksdale, but I think a lot of that had to do with the .214 babip he enjoyed in those outings.

Not sure if I am going R/L here, Zona TT, over. Gonna mull it all over.

[BigDan]

Joined you here, 1/2 unit on each.

Grabbed the K.C. under as well

I am starting to formulate a very strong opinion about the Muts tonight. It centers around Pelfrey really. Dude is bad on the road. He has started 4 times in Arizona

(edit, cut and paste went to shit)
1 1/3 ip 6 er's
6 ip 5 er's
5 ip 5 er's
5 ip 3 er's

As you can see he has gotten hammered going 0-4. There is also local controversy stewing in the NY papers that he was quoted saying he didn't come into the season thinking the Muts could compete. Unnamed sources saying some players are pissed at his comments. Whatever. Still Pelfrey is fragile, has been his entire career and when the wheels fall off he usually folds mentally.

Zona's hot, Muts were feel-good for a while but now are depleted and it is setting in...they are just gonna play out the rest of the season, eventually even Collin's rah-rah gets tuned out (as a side, I think they are good fade material here on out.)

Only down side is Pelf's 2 good starts with Barksdale, but I think a lot of that had to do with the .214 babip he enjoyed in those outings.

Not sure if I am going R/L here, Zona TT, over. Gonna mull it all over.

let me know bro, im gonna look real quick but you got me convinced its solid.

[Redscot]

let me know bro, im gonna look real quick but you got me convinced its solid.

I strongly encourage you to take that look BigD, I am a baseball fan 1st and better 2nd, I do ok though. Anyway, I have a hard time seeing Zona being held under 5 runs tonight, Pelf alone should do the job, but the pen is more than capable of stepping up if my Pelf fade fails. No sense playing Zona with so much chalk so going the -1 RL route there (I'm a cautious better full R/L could apply here imo), to continue the Pelf fade going over FF, feel the Muts contribute at least a run to get it there.

My local's juice sucks! But I get him on lazy lines often that he honors.

Edit* tried to cut and paste my ticket but it was a mess

[Redscot]

Also on St Louis -1 R/L, Minny, K.C. under (stayed off the side), Wash + 1 R/L (cashed this with Livan yesterday) as improbable it is that Phils lose 2 in a row like this one.

Also tailing LTA's late plays.

GL

[BigDan]

I/0 you are fukkin killing it today bro. I should have stuck around .....Nice