Big Dans Talkin Friday bases

[borednaz]

Lets get it started boys, I know its early but its never to early to make money.
Today Im on the phils ml. Remember Im a parlayer so taking the juice is easier for me, but to be safe I got a small play on wash which covers my parlay costs with out hurting my profits.

The joy of a 200+ dog lol. Texas Over 7, Houston Over 7, and just for Dan Im on Stl as Cook is just what the doctor ordered for the slumping cards. Small play on Kc just for laughs.

[ChipperDog]

Like those overs even though I tend to be under player that's got me kind of cautious.....

[Razorbacks1]

2 dogs for me today
Angels (+120)
Oakland (+117)

Good luck all

[miyakuza]

Razorbacks, don't you think Santana should be around +105 or -105 with how well hes done?

I believe its a trap line, due to Morrow losing last time in this matchup. I think Toronto rolls here.

[Razorbacks1]

Miyakuza you very well may be right plus Morrow is solid, Jays at home...could be the classic trap. Kinda like the under 8, but it seems everyone else does too, so that scares me a little. BOL on your play

[bigballer891]

everyone is on angels and the under. I like the jays and while the under looks good, i just cant bet it, GL.

[Redscot]

Livan Hernandez 12 career starts in Philadelphia, 9 unders 1 push 2 overs.

Not on the game, but found that pretty interesting.

[borednaz]

If you like oakland to win I dont see how you cant be on the over. Texas is almost always good for at least 3 especailly once you get to oaklands pen. My only fear is Oak not putting up points & just phoning in a loss. Oak loves to win the get away match..

[borednaz]

I also think we are seeing a low total on houston because either the books still dont believe houston can score on the road now or they think LA wont score.

[BigDan]

stl tt ov 4.5 ev.....Cook struggles against lefties and cards can put some pesky ass lefties in the lineup, Albert looked pretty dialed in and lets face it Cooks stuff not great. last week after Brewers kicked their asses they played good ball, dont see much reason for that same thing not to happen 2marro. Dont trust Loshe at all right now, actually trust him to get a hit, steal a base, help himself moving guys over, more than i do a QS atm. He might be fine but this seems safer and cheaper.

Hobrook behind the dish which is nice, worst thing is we just had some weather roll thru so temps may be down a little but not a big deal imho.

win or lose seems like their a lot of potential to score 5 runs here...

this and sf/fla u 7 ev is all for me tonight, sorry busy day and im getting ready to go out....GL everyone.

[stevenash]

stl tt ov 4.5 ev.....Cook struggles against lefties and cards can put some pesky ass lefties in the lineup, Albert looked pretty dialed in and lets face it Cooks stuff not great. last week after Brewers kicked their asses they played good ball, dont see much reason for that same thing not to happen 2marro. Dont trust Loshe at all right now, actually trust him to get a hit, steal a base, help himself moving guys over, more than i do a QS atm. He might be fine but this seems safer and cheaper.

Hobrook behind the dish which is nice, worst thing is we just had some weather roll thru so temps may be down a little but not a big deal imho.

win or lose seems like their a lot of potential to score 5 runs here...

this and sf/fla u 7 ev is all for me tonight, sorry busy day and im getting ready to go out....GL everyone.

Spot on with the St. Louis analysis, look for an abundance of runs.
First thing that popped out at me this morning, was "Over St. Louis game"

Make some cash.

[God1]

Spot on with the St. Louis analysis, look for an abundance of runs.
First thing that popped out at me this morning, was "Over St. Louis game"

Make some cash.

I just love when I see confirmation of how square the opposite side of one my totals bets is. Over is a horrible bet

[I/O]

I just love when I see confirmation of how square the opposite side of one my totals bets is. Over is a horrible bet

nice post

[stevenash]

I just love when I see confirmation of how square the opposite side of one my totals bets is. Over is a horrible bet

How is it a horrible bet?
The middle of the Cards line up make Cook their personal meat puppet.
Berk/Pujols/Holliday own him.
Cook has never gotten Jay out.

Rox hit .309 off of Lohse.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/batter_vs_pitcher.cgi?pitcher=lohseky01#gotresults&pitcher=lohseky01&year_game=career&post=1&opp_id=COL&bats=any&opponent_status=&c1criteria=&c1gtlt=eq&c1val=0&c2criteria=&c2gtlt=eq&c2val=0&orderby=PA&orderby_dir=desc&orderby_second=Name&orderby_dir_second=asc&ajax=1&submitter=1&z=1&z=1&z=1&z=1t

What suggests this game goes under?

[I/O]

taking a stab at these two...

966 Los Angeles Dodgers -1 -106*
957 Chicago Cubs -1½ +200*

BOL Gents

[God1]

How is it a horrible bet?
The middle of the Cards line up make Cook their personal meat puppet.
Berk/Pujols/Holliday own him.
Cook has never gotten Jay out.

Rox hit .309 off of Lohse.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/batter_vs_pitcher.cgi?pitcher=lohseky01#gotresults&pitcher=lohseky01&year_game=career&post=1&opp_id=COL&bats=any&opponent_status=&c1criteria=&c1gtlt=eq&c1val=0&c2criteria=&c2gtlt=eq&c2val=0&orderby=PA&orderby_dir=desc&orderby_second=Name&orderby_dir_second=asc&ajax=1&submitter=1&z=1&z=1&z=1&z=1t

What suggests this game goes under?

man you are clueless. You think it's as easy as looking at a good offense vs a bad pitcher and betting over? This is why the under is such a great bet. The dumb public just automatically sees a really bad pitcher and great offenses and thinks it will go over. There is nowhere in your analysis that translates anything you said to the actual number of runs. If the the number was 9 you'd be typing the same crap and saying over

[stevenash]

So your logic for betting the under is two terrible pitchers against two good hitting line ups is the squares like the over 8.5 so it must go under?

[pacocn]

Nash, God 1 is heavy on Toronto today (Biff's thread) so far
it is not looking too smart.

[pacocn]

Can't be easy for a person like God 1 to be surrounded by
all us idiots.

[stevenash]

Nash, God 1 is heavy on Toronto today (Biff's thread) so far
it is not looking too smart.

He's on the Jays? That's one of the squarest bets on the card tonight.

[I/O]

Zambrano

put your hand on the rail, take a bat, any bat, and slam it repeatedly on your hand

[God1]

So your logic for betting the under is two terrible pitchers against two good hitting line ups is the squares like the over 8.5 so it must go under?

my "logic" for betting under is that the true price is far under the 8.5 + money. and in general, betting unders on bad pitchers is a good way to make money. you just don't understand how sports betting works. not everyone is capable of doing this for a profit, good luck

[stevenash]

my "logic" for betting under is that the true price is far under the 8.5 + money. and in general, betting unders on bad pitchers is a good way to make money. you just don't understand how sports betting works. not everyone is capable of doing this for a profit, good luck

Been doing this for a profit for years, nice Blue Jay pick, well done donk.

[God1]

He's on the Jays? That's one of the squarest bets on the card tonight.

Your "analysis" of the cards over is the definition of square. And I sure was on the jays, pretty big bet too

[God1]

Been doing this for a profit for years

. you and everyone else on this board. i wonder how pinnacle is still in business

nice Blue Jay pick, well done donk.

thanks, the profit expectation was pretty high

edit: looks to me like you've been betting sbr points not real money

[stevenash]

Your "analysis" of the cards over is the definition of square. And I sure was on the jays, pretty big bet too

I crunch numbers until my eyes bleed, I haven't re upped in 4 years, I show a profit of 260 percent, and it looks like the Cards will break this thing wide open in the sixth.

[stevenash]

edit: looks to me like you've been betting sbr points not real money

You are the very definition of a troll.

I don't need to prove anything to you, my posts have proven more winners than losers here.

[Redscot]

my "logic" for betting under is that the true price is far under the 8.5 + money. and in general, betting unders on bad pitchers is a good way to make money. you just don't understand how sports betting works. not everyone is capable of doing this for a profit, good luck

Lord knows I have locked horns with G1 on numerous occasions, always for his tone not his content. I am a sports enthusiast first and a better 2nd, have picked up a lot of angles on this site from numerous guys. One of the main things I have learned from G1 is

1) unders tend to be more stable bets and

2) many times the "gascan" pitcher's represent good opportunities. All pitchers have their off days, aces too, no accounting for that. Fact of the matter is our friendly "gascans" put up more quality starts than disaster's or they get shipped out. I, the public, would always tend to see an Arroyo and automatically lean over, when in fact that has been more than compensated for in the line.

OK G1, tell me now how off I am in what I have learned .

[stevenash]

Lord knows I have locked horns with G1 on numerous occasions, always for his tone not his content. I am a sports enthusiast first and a better 2nd, have picked up a lot of angles on this site from numerous guys. One of the main things I have learned from G1 is

1) unders tend to be more stable bets and

2) many times the "gascan" pitcher's represent good opportunities. All pitchers have their off days, aces too, no accounting for that. Fact of the matter is our friendly "gascans" put up more quality starts than disaster's or they get shipped out. I, the public, would always tend to see an Arroyo and automatically lean over, when in fact that has been more than compensated for in the line.

OK G1, tell me now how off I am in what I have learned .

He's just a troll, a square one at that

[God1]

Lord knows I have locked horns with G1 on numerous occasions, always for his tone not his content. I am a sports enthusiast first and a better 2nd, have picked up a lot of angles on this site from numerous guys. One of the main things I have learned from G1 is

1) unders tend to be more stable bets and

stable is the wrong word, profitable yes.

2) many times the "gascan" pitcher's represent good opportunities. All pitchers have their off days, aces too, no accounting for that. Fact of the matter is our friendly "gascans" put up more quality starts than disaster's or they get shipped out. I, the public, would always tend to see an Arroyo and automatically lean over, when in fact that has been more than compensated for in the line.

absolutely spot on. there is so much money to be made betting unders on the garbage pitchers. The public pushes overs on guys like cook and arroyo way beyond their true price. People just see a 5 ERA and assume over. Clowns like this stevenash guy don't understand that over 8.5 -103 could be profitable while over 8.5 -110 could be a losing bet. He just says over. His post about why to take the over is a perfect example of why there was such great value on the under

Now there are definitely plenty of caveats, i'm not saying every bad pitcher you should bet under, but there is ALOT of money to be made betting certain unders and they all involve bad pitching

[stevenash]

You are just a troll.

[BigDan]

man you are clueless. You think it's as easy as looking at a good offense vs a bad pitcher and betting over? This is why the under is such a great bet. The dumb public just automatically sees a really bad pitcher and great offenses and thinks it will go over. There is nowhere in your analysis that translates anything you said to the actual number of runs. If the the number was 9 you'd be typing the same crap and saying over

As i mentioned in my 1st post about this gm in another thread, i knew sharp money would drive the total down giving me a decent price on stl tt ov (my bet was +100 what was the juice on the under?)....luckily it worked out for me, ok you guys can go back to doing whatever it is you do.

[BigDan]

I just love when I see confirmation of how square the opposite side of one my totals bets is. Over is a horrible bet

personally i thought stl tt ov was every bit as "sharp" as the under on this gm. mine just came juice free and i didnt have to concern myself with Loshe doing anything besides hitting

[Redscot]

Livan Hernandez 12 career starts in Philadelphia, 9 unders 1 push 2 overs.

Not on the game, but found that pretty interesting.

Wow, trend continues. 10 unders 1 push in 13 career starts in Philly.