Talkiin Tues Bases

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  • BigDan
    Restricted User
    • 04-28-11
    • 5104

    #1
    Talkiin Tues Bases
    not a lot of time this morning and will prob be gone the better part of the day, figured i would get this up so everyone could discuss while im gone and hopefully bang out some winners.

    got a few i played early..

    cws/bal un 9 -115....could be the time to stop messing with chisox unders but im still not convinced. for the most part lefties have held them down so welcome jo jo reyes (god help me), ive watched some lefties that should have been lit up by this team do very well so i will give jo-jo a shot to limit cws here while at the same time trusting Floyd to bounce back from his last outing, something he has done very well this season. like yesterday we get another ump with a very high k-rate (lot of good it did yesterday), so just gonna come back at it and hope this time we get the result i was looking for in last gm.

    STL-115...Jackson cant possibly be as bad as he was last time out in mil can he? maybe he can and im being a homer but lets be real sweeping hou on the road doesnt convince me mil is all a sudden road warriors. huge series and huge 1st gm for stl, not big believer in Marcum so i guess mil just gonna have to continue showing me.

    Hou+172..id be lying if i didnt say i would have been happier to see them lose yesterday as backing this team to win 2 gms in a row is beyond scary. That said we are actually getting the much better pitcher at very big plus money. You may find this hard to believe but Lyles is very gifted and that talent has started to show more and more over his last several starts, this kid has held his own at mil and @ tex so forgive me for thinking d-bags will not intimidate him. Stros bats certainly came to life tonight and not sure what the chances are that continues but Marquis has and always will be a gascan in my eyes, maybe ff is the way to go here and maybe i play that later but couldnt pass up this price with the better pitcher.

    pit +167...going back to the well with these guys, look yea they had a terrible run but if anything they came to sf scoring runs at least which is generally all it takes to beat the punchless g-men. Bumfucker has been worse at home all season for some reason and think McDonald will enjoy pitching in this park against this lineup. again just a number that seems off to me so really if i can just split these 2 dogs ill be thrilled.

    kc/tb u 7.5 -107....Francis not as bad as some may think. Shields a beast decent ump, and seems to be safe to go back to the under well in that park.

    that the 5 i played early, as i said i wont be around much during the day but should be home to go over anything anyone wants to talk about before the gms actually start....this thread is great because of everyone we have who contributes to it (im just here to get the ball rolling) so as always thoughts, comments, leans, plays, any info on gms is appreciated...
  • freshguy222
    SBR Sharp
    • 12-13-10
    • 421

    #2
    good writeups and nice public fades big dan!
    Comment
    • BigDan
      Restricted User
      • 04-28-11
      • 5104

      #3
      Originally posted by freshguy222
      good writeups and nice public fades big dan!

      thnx bro. honestly i dont look to really "fade the public", hell we are the public. i know these will probably be unpopular plays which doesnt bother me but certainly not makin them because the majority will be against them as much as i just like the prices. for all i know hou will go back to being unable to score runs but like i said that is a hell of a price for getting who i feel is the superior pitcher.
      Comment
      • BigDan
        Restricted User
        • 04-28-11
        • 5104

        #4
        one more i gotta take now as line should go up..

        sd/nym ov 8 -102....what is there to say? Pads are smoking and hit lefties, muts been finding ways to score with a bunch of guys no one has heard of. both pens are suspect at best and neither starter makes a habit of going deep into games. almost seems to easy (so buyer beware) and im sure this one be popular so figured i would get it in now instead of pay juice later.
        Comment
        • Sportsbetting123
          SBR MVP
          • 03-01-08
          • 1400

          #5
          Pitt is in a terrible stretch but I do like them to break out of it today. Best of luck
          Comment
          • BiffTFinancial
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 01-29-09
            • 22670

            #6
            only play i've locked in so far is Red Sox/Twins over 8.5, will check out the rest.
            Comment
            • BigDan
              Restricted User
              • 04-28-11
              • 5104

              #7
              Originally posted by Sportsbetting123
              Pitt is in a terrible stretch but I do like them to break out of it today. Best of luck
              i think they broke out of it last night bro not to mention as i said when i played them yesterday, "its not like sf is playing good baseball either"(losing 8 of last 10 now). at least bucs were scoring some runs coming in which is more than we can say about frisco. dont get me wrong sf could easily win this (well most their wins arnt easy) but this price just seems to misrepresent Buccos chances in this gm imho.
              Comment
              • BigDan
                Restricted User
                • 04-28-11
                • 5104

                #8
                Originally posted by BiffTFinancial
                only play i've locked in so far is Red Sox/Twins over 8.5, will check out the rest.

                i wanna get on this with you but i have a phobia of a over like this where everyone just watched these 2 score a shit ton of runs yesterday and now TMac behind dish this one gonna be popular. well that and ive always been of the belief that a team is more emotionally spent the second day after a late gm/travel/and off a Rivalry, that 1st gm i always expect adrenaline to carry them but that 2nd is where i expect a team to hit the wall a little. Now this the gm i may end up taking the twinks on as ive always had a soft spot for Liriano, pretty sure i can wait on this one tho so ill decide when i get home.
                Comment
                • tshizzle
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 07-26-10
                  • 298

                  #9
                  I like it. good luck with it.
                  Comment
                  • LovetoSpooge
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 11-20-10
                    • 426

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Sportsbetting123
                    Pitt is in a terrible stretch but I do like them to break out of it today. Best of luck
                    Am I on shrooms or did they not break out of it today.

                    Good write ups I like your logic I lean towards the over in the stl game though getting + money and Jackson I think will be as bad as milwaukee bats are strong. I think stl will be able to put up enough hoping for a 6-4 score.

                    I like the houston play I was just going to auto play zona this series but like you said + money on a better pitcher looks good I don't think it'll be as one sided as tonight but houston bats have got to get a little confidence from it and sometimes that's all it takes.

                    I like the tampa under, those muppets can't score at home.

                    My leans:

                    Texas rl - I know pineda's had a couple of good outings but he's had some bad games against stout offences and Texas fits that bill. Oganda is a stud as well so as long he gets some run support I think he should be fine.

                    San Fran under - I think bumgarner will be ok and San Fran couldn't hit the side of a barn with a watermelon so hoping for somehting along a 4-1 game.

                    Philly rl - square as hell but of Lee's wins I believe only one of them has been by less than 2. I believe phillies will win this so I'll take the rl.

                    Red Sox/Twins over 8.5 - Boston against Liriano I think they can cover this themselves couple that with the fact we've got bedard as well twins bats haven't been two bad I really like this one.

                    Angels/Yankees under 8.5 - basically I rate Haren and don't rate the angels offence.
                    Comment
                    • BiffTFinancial
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 01-29-09
                      • 22670

                      #11
                      Originally posted by BigDan
                      i wanna get on this with you but i have a phobia of a over like this where everyone just watched these 2 score a shit ton of runs yesterday and now TMac behind dish this one gonna be popular. well that and ive always been of the belief that a team is more emotionally spent the second day after a late gm/travel/and off a Rivalry, that 1st gm i always expect adrenaline to carry them but that 2nd is where i expect a team to hit the wall a little. Now this the gm i may end up taking the twinks on as ive always had a soft spot for Liriano, pretty sure i can wait on this one tho so ill decide when i get home.
                      no worries, brother. just remember, the definition of phobia is "an irrational fear".....

                      will run your other totals through my spreadsheet now and post or pm my thoughts.
                      Comment
                      • BigDan
                        Restricted User
                        • 04-28-11
                        • 5104

                        #12
                        Spooge i havnt really made my way thru the entire card as im short on time but i really cant argue with any of those. i could very well join you on the stl over (pending ump) but i think that number may be a slight overreaction to the series in mil last week. I could be wrong but id be shocked if Jackson got tagged by these guys a second time in a row while at the same time i think Marcum a guy the more you see the better you hit him. tex rl was close to a play and still may end up being one, love Pineda but he wears down and the coaching staff leaves him out there way to long in most cases, over 8 seems like a solid play in that gm as well.

                        ill have more later but dont have time to go thru everything atm.....GL with your plays.
                        Comment
                        • BigDan
                          Restricted User
                          • 04-28-11
                          • 5104

                          #13
                          Originally posted by BiffTFinancial
                          no worries, brother. just remember, the definition of phobia is "an irrational fear".....

                          will run your other totals through my spreadsheet now and post or pm my thoughts.

                          never claimed to be the most rational person on the planet think it may actually help with this thing we do as more times than not the unexplainable becomes reality.


                          cool let me know. got about 15 minutes and im out the door.
                          Comment
                          • Love The Action
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 11-08-10
                            • 10952

                            #14
                            Good luck today Danimal

                            I'm rolling with you today on that KC/TB under....let's get it!
                            Comment
                            • BigDan
                              Restricted User
                              • 04-28-11
                              • 5104

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Love The Action
                              Good luck today Danimal

                              I'm rolling with you today on that KC/TB under....let's get it!

                              certainly glad you like it. you have been killing it brother Pissed off it took me so long to find your thread as you have by far one of my fav threads on this bitch
                              Comment
                              • BiffTFinancial
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 01-29-09
                                • 22670

                                #16
                                Originally posted by BigDan
                                never claimed to be the most rational person on the planet think it may actually help with this thing we do as more times than not the unexplainable becomes reality. cool let me know. got about 15 minutes and im out the door.
                                my ranges:
                                KC/TB: 6.06-6.11 (think that i will be on this one, only question is if i go FF under to avoid those pens)
                                CWS/BAL: 7.81-8.58 (like this one; my one concerns are a potential wind to LF/CF and O's pen; may also consider FF under here, but can't argue with game under)

                                surprisingly, i don't like the Tigers/Tribe under as much as i thought i would. don't get me wrong, i wouldn't play the over with someone else's money, but the weather changed overnight, and right now, we could be looking at a 12 mph over wind, which would force me to pass.
                                Comment
                                • BigDan
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 04-28-11
                                  • 5104

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by BiffTFinancial
                                  my ranges:
                                  KC/TB: 6.06-6.11 (think that i will be on this one, only question is if i go FF under to avoid those pens)
                                  CWS/BAL: 7.81-8.58 (like this one; my one concerns are a potential wind to LF/CF and O's pen; may also consider FF under here, but can't argue with game under)

                                  surprisingly, i don't like the Tigers/Tribe under as much as i thought i would. don't get me wrong, i wouldn't play the over with someone else's money, but the weather changed overnight, and right now, we could be looking at a 12 mph over wind, which would force me to pass.

                                  my 1st reaction was actually over in cle but LTA on the under and you obviously dont like the over (didnt think you would) so decided to just leave it alone.

                                  glad we line up on the others. yea the wind bothered me in balty but then again i thought i had a helpful wind there yesterday and that didnt do much good.
                                  Comment
                                  • BigDan
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 04-28-11
                                    • 5104

                                    #18
                                    one more before i go

                                    hou/zona un 9...stands to reason if i like hou and really like Lyles that i more than likely need a under to cash that ticket as despite my disrespect for Marquis i dont see hou just lighting him up. hou pen a concern but feel like this number high maybe based off Lyles not so impressive era (which doesnt mean shit to me).
                                    Comment
                                    • BiffTFinancial
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 01-29-09
                                      • 22670

                                      #19
                                      SD/NYM: i have a range of 8.21-8.47. that said, Pads are probably the most difficult team to get a handle on right now offensively with any sort of numbers, so like that one too. BOL today, BigDan.
                                      Comment
                                      • BigDan
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 04-28-11
                                        • 5104

                                        #20
                                        well that makes 7 im on before i even get home and inevitably add a few more what can i say? i play a lot of gms.
                                        Comment
                                        • BiffTFinancial
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 01-29-09
                                          • 22670

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by BigDan
                                          one more before i go hou/zona un 9...stands to reason if i like hou and really like Lyles that i more than likely need a under to cash that ticket as despite my disrespect for Marquis i dont see hou just lighting him up. hou pen a concern but feel like this number high maybe based off Lyles not so impressive era (which doesnt mean shit to me).
                                          like this one, i'm pretty impressed with Lyles. my range is 8.2-8.3. this under and under at the Trop may be my other two plays.
                                          Comment
                                          • guil0000
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 01-18-11
                                            • 472

                                            #22
                                            your bang on with Pittsburgh
                                            Comment
                                            • miyakuza
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 05-03-10
                                              • 1411

                                              #23
                                              I like STL to come back and beat Milwaukee at home, public will be on STL, but Milwaukee is a completely different team on the road than at home.

                                              I also like the Mets with Capuano against LeBlanc and the surging Padres. Headley is still going to be out, a major bat still out of the lineup for the Pads. I know Reyes and Murphy are out for the Mets, but Wright, Ike and Pagan are showing signs of stepping up with their bats.

                                              BigD, do you think Rockies will give Rogers enough run support? Dude is horrendous, but I think Willis is just as bad today. I think the over will definately hit once again.

                                              Square, but I think Bedard will do fine tonight against the Twins. Twins had their chance last night and Liriano is more than likely going to get lit up...

                                              Other plays I like:

                                              Cleveland
                                              Pirates (I have to go against my Giants on this one)
                                              Angels
                                              Baltimore (more confident in them tonight than last)
                                              Comment
                                              • borednaz
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 08-28-10
                                                • 3809

                                                #24
                                                Im rolling with the puches today & playing with house money nice to be up over 1.6k for the week.

                                                Im glad to see you on The Sd/Mets over guys, was worried I was being a sqaure. I just think both teams have something to fight for here & both pens will blow a lead on a dime. Add two possible gas can starters and Im hooked.

                                                Im riding Atl & The mets just as squarely. Atl is waking up while florida @home is always a low scoring affair. Mets just look good here wish I could explain more but I see Sd coming back to reality.

                                                Im wrapping up my hamburger stand with Tex rl, Im such a square but its rare texas wins by just 1 especailly againsy seattle. Og will get run support.
                                                Comment
                                                • miyakuza
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 05-03-10
                                                  • 1411

                                                  #25
                                                  I don't think Tex RL will be such a great play, Pineda is just as much of a stud as Ogando, this could be a pitchers duel.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • borednaz
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 08-28-10
                                                    • 3809

                                                    #26
                                                    The big question is not Pineda here its who replaces him. Might very well be a 2-1 type of game even into the 7th, but once they send out the relievers Im confident Texas.will put up a few more.

                                                    Im also parlayer I rarerly straight bet, surprisingly it works for me. Im still up 4-6k life time. So I have the game hedged with two seattle +1.5 parlays that will bring me back to even for th we night if they pull a miracle.

                                                    One thing you learn fast as a parlay guy is to always have a break even play. Also there will be nights you"ll go to bed crying that you could of went 7-1 if you straight bet but instead broke even.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • eddie1086
                                                      SBR Hustler
                                                      • 07-26-11
                                                      • 94

                                                      #27
                                                      i think that red sox and twins first five dont look to bad at 4.5 runs for the over. Any thoughts?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • borednaz
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 08-28-10
                                                        • 3809

                                                        #28
                                                        Pregame bump. No coin check in pal I want to see how your day is shaping up.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • BigDan
                                                          Restricted User
                                                          • 04-28-11
                                                          • 5104

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by miyakuza
                                                          I like STL to come back and beat Milwaukee at home, public will be on STL, but Milwaukee is a completely different team on the road than at home.

                                                          I also like the Mets with Capuano against LeBlanc and the surging Padres. Headley is still going to be out, a major bat still out of the lineup for the Pads. I know Reyes and Murphy are out for the Mets, but Wright, Ike and Pagan are showing signs of stepping up with their bats.

                                                          BigD, do you think Rockies will give Rogers enough run support? Dude is horrendous, but I think Willis is just as bad today. I think the over will definately hit once again.

                                                          Square, but I think Bedard will do fine tonight against the Twins. Twins had their chance last night and Liriano is more than likely going to get lit up...

                                                          Other plays I like:

                                                          Cleveland
                                                          Pirates (I have to go against my Giants on this one)
                                                          Angels
                                                          Baltimore (more confident in them tonight than last)

                                                          seems like majority riding with mil which makes sense after the way they beat stl down last week, not to mention gamblers short term memory that remembers Jackson getting crushed in mil. Mil still hasnt proven shit on the road but i must admit Cards really havnt been playing good ball at home for some time. Just dont think mil sees the meatballs that jackson was throwing last game again. i like backing a pitcher that gets killed and next start plays same team, if it is a capable guy that is, which i believe Jackson to be.

                                                          honestly i havnt looked at cin/col gm hardly at all, i will start now.

                                                          just liked over better than a side in pads/muts gm, so under prob golden

                                                          i really wanna play the twinks tonight but i will probably just stay away. call it a hunch, or whatever, maybe it just even with all Lariano's faults ive just always liked watching the kid pitch.

                                                          Ive been thinking about tribe all day, then i just read something Biff posted about how rarely either team wins in the others park and then really started liking tribe, gonna look at that one some more.

                                                          really no interest in LAA/NYY gm, kinda like yesterday with min i feel like even with better pitcher i need more to go against yanks i think.

                                                          i can see why you would like Balty more today seeing how i dont really like chisox today
                                                          Comment
                                                          • BiffTFinancial
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 01-29-09
                                                            • 22670

                                                            #30
                                                            i'm on BOS/MIN over, KC/TB under, HOU/AZ under. thinking about adding a unit to BOS/MIN over, but then again, it's pretty popular play so maybe better to leave as-is. not liking the line movement on KC/TB, but my fault for locking in early at -110.

                                                            thinking about adding Braves ML, COL/CIN over, maybe Tribe. also kinda like Nats TT under 4.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • bigballer891
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 06-12-10
                                                              • 1683

                                                              #31
                                                              BD, I think Hou first 5 or first 5 +0.5 +110 are the better bets, arizona has the edge when you get to the pens, and you know bad teams always seem to find a way to lose. I could just see them winning most of the game and then blowing it late.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • BigDan
                                                                Restricted User
                                                                • 04-28-11
                                                                • 5104

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by bigballer891
                                                                BD, I think Hou first 5 or first 5 +0.5 +110 are the better bets, arizona has the edge when you get to the pens, and you know bad teams always seem to find a way to lose. I could just see them winning most of the game and then blowing it late.

                                                                yea that makes a lot of sense bro. think i mentioned it in first post but it wasnt out as of yet this morning and wasnt sure where number would go so figured id get a little on gm. Hard to argue hou would come back from being down so only things that can happen are probably bad after 5.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • BigDan
                                                                  Restricted User
                                                                  • 04-28-11
                                                                  • 5104

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by BiffTFinancial
                                                                  i'm on BOS/MIN over, KC/TB under, HOU/AZ under. thinking about adding a unit to BOS/MIN over, but then again, it's pretty popular play so maybe better to leave as-is. not liking the line movement on KC/TB, but my fault for locking in early at -110.

                                                                  thinking about adding Braves ML, COL/CIN over, maybe Tribe. also kinda like Nats TT under 4.

                                                                  i dont know why im the only person on the planet hesitant to get on that bos/min ov

                                                                  yea if there were any i feel less great about from this morning they prob the unders in tampa and maybe balty.

                                                                  Atl another one thats hard for me to get behind, of coarse i didnt back them yesterday but at least got the money on the totals. Not sure why im waiting for them to lose some more??

                                                                  would like to get on Tribe, you might have to push me a little further but seems like the right side to me.

                                                                  hard to argue rox/reds over.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • blackeyeshamus
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 02-19-11
                                                                    • 6632

                                                                    #34
                                                                    big dan. thinking about playing the blue jays 4x ml and 1x rl but I'm stuttering right now.
                                                                    why isn't everybody on the jays at home vs the underachieving oakland athletics? help me out, brah!
                                                                    and best of luck tonight, man! need a big hit tonight... thanks.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • borednaz
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 08-28-10
                                                                      • 3809

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Dan, If your expecting Atl to lose more than you have to assume with this pitcher for fla Fla is going to have to put up 4-5 points to win. In other words take the over, I for one think Atl wins but dont trust Fla at home to put up points.

                                                                      Atl wont lose A 3-2 type of game here. Im all over Sd\Mutts over 8 but Im starting to feel shaky as the whole world is on it but no one is giving me solid input about the game.
                                                                      Comment
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