Monday Parlay...thoughts?

[gunnersgun]

D'Backs ML/Phillies ML/Giants ML

d'backs at home vs. the astros, phillies (doc) on the road vs. the dodgers, giants (vogelsong) at home vs the pirates.

[God1]

Love it can't see any of those teams losing. You can't go wrong betting against the Astros and on Halladay and goes without saying to bet against the Pirates on a 10 game losing streak. Why not add in a Rangers run line to that parlay? Seems like free money they are handing out there against the lowly Mariners

[BigDan]

Love it can't see any of those teams losing. You can't go wrong betting against the Astros and on Halladay and goes without saying to bet against the Pirates on a 10 game losing streak. Why not add in a Rangers run line to that parlay? Seems like free money they are handing out there against the lowly Mariners

i know you being sarcastic as hell but i have to admit im already down on tex-1.5

[hardball]

Love it can't see any of those teams losing. You can't go wrong betting against the Astros and on Halladay and goes without saying to bet against the Pirates on a 10 game losing streak. Why not add in a Rangers run line to that parlay? Seems like free money they are handing out there against the lowly Mariners

Quit being an ass, Will Hunting.

Give the guy some help. He hasn't taken your stats class yet.

I like the Texas play though.....


OP- I have a feeling you might get busted by the Dodgers. However, I've been wrong before. VERY wrong. Either way Good luck.

[God1]

Quit being an ass, Will Hunting.

Give the guy some help. He hasn't taken your stats class yet.

And if I told him I thought the Giants were a terrible bet and Vogelsong is being priced too high what do you think the response would be? I think I'd be told about his 2.19 ERA and probably win loss record

[borednaz]

I could point out how to respond to him like a decent person but that would be lost on you so, why not go simple.


This game will be low scoring, one slip up and its pitts game. Or how about A pitcher with no run support can not win games alone.

[borednaz]

However, I must state if pitt can make SD look like the Rangers they can unslump the SF bats.

[hardball]

Could be, but what value do you get out of responding like a prick?

Self satisfaction?

Stick to the inefficient market of totals.

Quit using the forum as an ego boost. Help the new fish, debate with peers, and learn from the big fish.

In the large picture L&M you are not near as sharp as you present yourself to be.

[gunnersgun]

Love it can't see any of those teams losing. You can't go wrong betting against the Astros and on Halladay and goes without saying to bet against the Pirates on a 10 game losing streak. Why not add in a Rangers run line to that parlay? Seems like free money they are handing out there against the lowly Mariners

lol, i actually thought this was a genuine and sincere response and was going to reply with why I chose not to include the rangers in the parlay...lol oops

[gunnersgun]

And if I told him I thought the Giants were a terrible bet and Vogelsong is being priced too high what do you think the response would be? I think I'd be told about his 2.19 ERA and probably win loss record

You'll have to forgive me, I'm new here and wasn't aware that you were the resident prick. I really should brush this aside as I'm sure regardless of what I say here you'll probably come back with 1 or 2 snarky lines to display your massive wit and reassert your dominance so that you don't lose your forum "rep" but w/e I have a few minutes. First, I don't bet for a living, I found out about this site on 2plus2 (I actually play poker for a living, not that you care) and decided to check it out. I prefer to bet nba and soccer but got bored this summer so decided to get into baseball as a means to entertain myself. I'm guessing some of you bet baseball for at least some part of your income, so coming from a gambling background myself I can appreciate your need to make smart plays and always look for value where possible. However, I'm incredibly new to baseball and don't have the slightest of aspirations to ever become a "pro" or anything close to it, but would just like to not make significant blunders.

Now, when I made the thread and said "...thoughts?" and included that question mark at the end, that means I actually was looking for and did want input from more experienced individuals if they cared to give it. So if you had responded with that tidbit about Vogelsong and the Giants, why on earth would I retort to the very advice that I myself requested and dig in my heels to defend my position? You're exactly right, I am betting the Giants because Vogelsong has a stellar record, a very good ERA at home, and because the Pirates look to be dead right now, so if someone comes in and says to me that I may want to consider the Giants lack of run support and the fact that the Pirates can at least score runs and a lucky patch of hitting by them could screw me, that's exactly the type of thing I want to hear so I can mull it over some more.

As I said, I just do this recreationally, I don't know the ins and outs like some of you, so when I see a spot where I have two games that I have a high probability of winning but I want a better price I just go ahead and parlay them rather than taking a game where I'm not nearly as confident. Is this wrong? Is it a horrible idea? Probably is, I honestly don't know, you try something until you realize what mistakes you're making and then you make your adjustments. Anyway, I'm a fast typer so don't worry I didn't spend too much time on this but it probably was way more than I needed to do. I actually appreciate the input and support/defense that I did receive here. Thanks guys but it's gonna take a lot more than God1 to phase or even irk me in the slightest, I've spent years on poker forums so arrogant know-it-alls and pricks are nothing new at all.

[Duvel]

Dbacks and CWS better! Texas might be a good 3rd option but not sold on it. Play 2 is the safer way than playing a 3 teamer at least tomorrow. Tuesday will bring us a 3 team parlay, for sure!

[borednaz]

Duvel is right on the money. Cws & Az are good here about 80% of the time here. Build a little roll off this & Tomorrow go for the 3 peat.

[God1]

Quit using the forum as an ego boost. Help the new fish, debate with peers, and learn from the big fish.

I don't get an ego boost from conversing with idiots.

In the large picture L&M you are not near as sharp as you present yourself to be.

I don't how "sharp" I present myself to be. You make your own perception

[gunnersgun]

Thanks for the input. Yea I actually took a look at it and decided to switch it to the CWS/D'Backs/Phillies. I know ppl are doubting having the Phils in there but given that they haven't lost b2b but once in the past 2 months and they have doc starting and wanting to rebound from a bad outing and their offense now better with pence in there and this being the la dodgers after all, there is just too much for me to not want to include them in there. I'd be much more pissed at myself if I did a 2-teamer or didn't include the Phils and they won than if I chose to throw them in and they lost. And don't worry, this isn't one of those last stand all-in double my roll or I'm done betting type things. Win or lose I'll be right back on Tuesday looking for what I like then.
Lol, after what Feliz did to me this weekend I'm staying far away from the Rangers for a while, they are way too inconsistent for my liking right now and every time I watch them play nowadays I almost have a heart attack if I have money on them. They have some injuries and don't seem to care about scoring till it's late in the game and they're down multiple runs...no thanks.

What are people's thoughts on the Red Sox/Twins tomorrow. I know wakefield is starting and they just got off an emotional win/series vs. the yanks but the twins did just get swept by the cws who looked dead in the water only a few days ago.

[God1]

You'll have to forgive me, I'm new here and wasn't aware that you were the resident prick. I really should brush this aside as I'm sure regardless of what I say here you'll probably come back with 1 or 2 snarky lines to display your massive wit and reassert your dominance so that you don't lose your forum "rep" but w/e I have a few minutes. First, I don't bet for a living, I found out about this site on 2plus2 (I actually play poker for a living, not that you care) and decided to check it out. I prefer to bet nba and soccer but got bored this summer so decided to get into baseball as a means to entertain myself. I'm guessing some of you bet baseball for at least some part of your income, so coming from a gambling background myself I can appreciate your need to make smart plays and always look for value where possible. However, I'm incredibly new to baseball and don't have the slightest of aspirations to ever become a "pro" or anything close to it, but would just like to not make significant blunders.

I haven't been here long either, but your attitude is about 1 in 1000 on here. You obviously understand how this works, you can't win at this by just picking sides as the market is efficient and the vig will eat you up. If you're not doing any modeling, the best way to limit your losses will be to stay away from big favorites. As a blanket rule you'd probably be better off not betting favorites period. Home underdogs have been very slightly profitable for many years.

Now, when I made the thread and said "...thoughts?" and included that question mark at the end, that means I actually was looking for and did want input from more experienced individuals if they cared to give it. So if you had responded with that tidbit about Vogelsong and the Giants, why on earth would I retort to the very advice that I myself requested and dig in my heels to defend my position?

In my couple months here, that would be a first

You're exactly right, I am betting the Giants because Vogelsong has a stellar record, a very good ERA at home, and because the Pirates look to be dead right now, so if someone comes in and says to me that I may want to consider the Giants lack of run support and the fact that the Pirates can at least score runs and a lucky patch of hitting by them could screw me, that's exactly the type of thing I want to hear so I can mull it over some more.

The reason I don't like the Giants is because Vogelsong's ERA is extremely deceptive. ERA is very luck laden and he has one of the biggest ERA to expected ERA differences in baseball. SIERA is the current best public future predictor of ERA, it's a combination of the factors a pitcher can control: walks, Ks, HRs, and some batted ball data. Vogelsong's SIERA is somewhere around 3.80. There are only a few pitchers in baseball with such huge disparities(freddy garcia and hellickson are two others) and this creates opportunity because most of the betting market just sees ERA and is ignorant of the advanced metrics. When judging the skill of a pitcher, completely ignore ERA and look at SIERA as a start(fangraphs.com). ERA is only helpful as a guide to see how the public views the pitcher

As I said, I just do this recreationally, I don't know the ins and outs like some of you, so when I see a spot where I have two games that I have a high probability of winning but I want a better price I just go ahead and parlay them rather than taking a game where I'm not nearly as confident. Is this wrong? Is it a horrible idea? Probably is, I honestly don't know, you try something until you realize what mistakes you're making and then you make your adjustments.

If parlaying means higher juice, which usually it does obviously its just costing u X more percent in ROI. What's your goal? Is it to have a fun sweat on games? Then just bet who you want. If your goal is to bet but to try to minimize losses without putting in too much work, just bet home underdogs, you might actually come out even. Betting big favorites is just going to get you crushed long term

[God1]

Thanks for the input. Yea I actually took a look at it and decided to switch it to the CWS/D'Backs/Phillies. I know ppl are doubting having the Phils in there but given that they haven't lost b2b but once in the past 2 months and they have doc starting and wanting to rebound from a bad outing and their offense now better with pence in there and this being the la dodgers after all, there is just too much for me to not want to include them in there. I'd be much more pissed at myself if I did a 2-teamer or didn't include the Phils and they won than if I chose to throw them in and they lost. And don't worry, this isn't one of those last stand all-in double my roll or I'm done betting type things. Win or lose I'll be right back on Tuesday looking for what I like then.
Lol, after what Feliz did to me this weekend I'm staying far away from the Rangers for a while, they are way too inconsistent for my liking right now and every time I watch them play nowadays I almost have a heart attack if I have money on them. They have some injuries and don't seem to care about scoring till it's late in the game and they're down multiple runs...no thanks.

What are people's thoughts on the Red Sox/Twins tomorrow. I know wakefield is starting and they just got off an emotional win/series vs. the yanks but the twins did just get swept by the cws who looked dead in the water only a few days ago.

I hate to be a sour puss, and again this depends on your goals, but just doing some anaylsis like this and "picking a side" is a guaranteed way to lose the vig long term. Things like coming off an emotional win or a team not losing back to back in 2 months are completely meaningless. And if it somehow had significance, it would already have been priced in, and even if it wasn't you'd have to have an idea of how much it increases your team's probability of winning for it to be profitable betting information. You're working against the best market makers in the world and a very efficient market, simple thoughts aren't going to do anything more than have you win 50% of the time, which is losing to the vig.

[hardball]

Sweet Jesus, God1. This is is decent stuff. Why not post this at first vs your condescending sarcastic reply? Not everyone here is Golden Greek looking to retort with endless e-battle slander.

Provide educated insight, agree with the selection, or leave the thread alone. No need to be an ass to someone learning the game looking for feedback.

OP- God has provided a good set of info in the last few posts. Dissect it and come up with your own parameters for success.

Good Luck.

[God1]

......

???

[BeerBottlez]

If it was only so easy as taking the favorites to win which really would make us all poor as lines would either really suck or bookies wouldn't be in business.

Oh and I like the Rangers on Monday too. I don't expect Charlie Furbush to throw two good games in a row as the guy was stinking it up in Detroit and will likely get back to those ways sooner then later.