Friday

[BiffTFinancial]

3* Cardinals/Marlins under 8.5 (-109)
3* A's/Rays under 8.5 (-115)
2* Cardinals/Marlins FF under 4.5 (-110)
2* A's/Rays FF under 4.5 (-115)

[BigDan]

GL brother

[BiffTFinancial]

my buddy who specializes in aussie rules plays has a slew of soccer, CFL, AFL and rugby plays for the weekend. he already hit Dortmund -1 this afternoon

Kaislerslauten-Bremen OVER 2.75 at -117 (Saturday, 9:30am). This match screams 4 or 5 goals. Last season, the two sides scored 3 and 5 goals in their meetings. I think 3 happens with 4 probable.

Edmonton -1 (Friday, 7:35pm). I'm more a believer in the Eskimos than the Bombers. I think they nick a road win at Canad Inns to stay undefeated.

Hamilton +3' (Saturday, 9:35pm). Ti-Cats are playing really well and the Stamps just aren't. Still, Calgary is overvalued and Hamilton undervalued. ML might be good play, too. I think Hamilton wins outright on the road.

The Aussie Rules lines are out of control with all but two fixtures featuring huge lines. Never one to back off of big chalk, I'll play along with two of them:

Carlton -38' (Friday, 11:30pm). Carlton is rounding back into form after a bit of rough patch. The Dees were rocked by 186, 54 and 64 in 3 of their last 4 matches (only a match against hapless Port saved them). Carlton won this fixture the first go-around by 47 with spotty kicking. I think the Blues cruise at home to an 8+ goal win.

Collingwood -73 (Saturday, 5:30am). Port are in shambles and, after last week, clearly the worst side in Adelaide, which is really saying something given the Crows' form. The Pies could easily hit them for 25 goals and might even challenge Geelong's ridiculous 37.11 showing last week.

New Zealand -10' (Saturday, 3:30am, Rugby Union/Tri-Nations). I see no reason not to continue riding the All-Blacks at home. The Wallabies are a fare better side than the crapola RSA trotted out last week, but the Kiwis still ought to be control the match from start to finish and make their superiority count.

[BiffTFinancial]

GL brother

thanks, man. i fully understand that this strategem could take a really ugly turn in one huge inning by the Cards offense.

still considering CWS/MIN over and LAD/AZ under for later. gotta step out for a bit, back around gametime.

[Love The Action]

3* Cardinals/Marlins under 8.5 (-109)
3* A's/Rays under 8.5 (-115)
2* Cardinals/Marlins FF under 4.5 (-110)
2* A's/Rays FF under 4.5 (-115)

Love the cards under, but why are you backing Moscoso here? He has horrible peripherals and has already started to regress. Just curious, not criticizing the play. Good luck tonight...hope you sweep the board

[The Coach's Desk]

GL

Like the under OAK/TB u as well

[God1]

Love the cards under, but why are you backing Moscoso here? He has horrible peripherals and has already started to regress. Just curious, not criticizing the play. Good luck tonight...hope you sweep the board

Horrible peripherals only matter if they aren't being priced in, in Moscoso's case they clearly are

[Love The Action]

Horrible peripherals only matter if they aren't being priced in, in Moscoso's case they clearly are

I know...just wondering what else he sees in this play. Love Niemann in this spot though....

[BiffTFinancial]

Love the cards under, but why are you backing Moscoso here? He has horrible peripherals and has already started to regress. Just curious, not criticizing the play. Good luck tonight...hope you sweep the board

just saw this and want to respond before i take off for a bit. i love unders and the Trop is my favorite stadium for unders. not saying that it can't lose (had the under 8.5 there yesterday, 3-3 at the end of 9th and lost). based upon my formula, that under has the highest margin of any total play today. i could be wrong, but bottomline, 5 runs scored in the average park equal about 4 runs at the Trop, Niemann looking good and either lineup capable of putting up 2 runs for any given game. back in a few.

[Love The Action]

just saw this and want to respond before i take off for a bit. i love unders and the Trop is my favorite stadium for unders. not saying that it can't lose (had the under 8.5 there yesterday, 3-3 at the end of 9th and lost). based upon my formula, that under has the highest margin of any total play today. i could be wrong, but bottomline, 5 runs scored in the average park equal about 4 runs at the Trop, Niemann looking good and either lineup capable of putting up 2 runs for any given game. back in a few.

Thanks for the response. Niemann might just shut them out tonight....good luck

[God1]

The real question is how you price Niemann. Pinnacle clearly was giving very little weight to his last couple months opening tampa at -145, of course they got pounded for it as the change is so drastic you have to give it some decent significance. It's pretty funny they were getting pounded off of oakland openers the past couple weeks by pricing oakland too low and now the last few days it's been the opposite. I'm starting to think the under might be the play purely based on the ML movement. 28 cent move with no change in the total would have to mean that whatever moved the ML is dead equally weighted in oakland's scoring suppression/rays additional scoring or vice versa which to me doesn't make sense. The ML movement almost surely has to be on moscoso being overpriced or niemann being underpriced(I believe it's the latter). The moneyline market is also alot more efficient than the totals market

edit: The total on the game was opened after the rays were already at -160 so I don't know how much relevance anything I just said has

[Love The Action]

The real question is how you price Niemann. Pinnacle clearly was giving very little weight to his last couple months opening tampa at -145, of course they got pounded for it as the change is so drastic you have to give it some decent significance. It's pretty funny they were getting pounded off of oakland openers the past couple weeks by pricing oakland too low and now the last few days it's been the opposite. I'm starting to think the under might be the play purely based on the ML movement. 28 cent move with no change in the total would have to mean that whatever moved the ML is dead equally weighted in oakland's scoring suppression/rays additional scoring or vice versa which to me doesn't make sense. The ML movement almost surely has to be on moscoso being overpriced or niemann being underpriced(I believe it's the latter). The moneyline market is also alot more efficient than the totals market

They underpriced Niemman...and got nailed for it right off the bat as you mentioned...

[God1]

oh my god look at that sabathia line tomorrow, -145

that verlander line might be more outrageous. i'm going to be sending in a boatload on kc tomorrow

[BiffTFinancial]

liking MIL/HOU under more and more. thinking that and LAD/AZ under for later.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

3* Brewers/Astros under 8 (-107)

updated card
3* Cardinals/Marlins under 8.5 (-109)
3* A's/Rays under 8.5 (-115)
3* Brewers/Astros under 8 (-107)
2* Cardinals/Marlins FF under 4.5 (-110)
2* A's/Rays FF under 4.5 (-115)

[BiffTFinancial]

JA Happ

[God1]

Well there's the reason for the Happ rule. I looked at his peripherals and it looks like his SIERA should actually be alot worse, his O-swing% is 5% lower than last year, his first strike is 2% lower, and his SwStrk is almost a full 1% lower with the others being relatively the same. This should translate into a pretty significant drop in Ks and to a lesser extent rise in walks. He has actually seen his K rate increase by almost .5 and his walk rate drop by about .2. He has some serious regression coming in both those categories. His SIERA should be over 5 which would put him in wade davis territory

It's pretty rare to see such an obvious case of coming SIERA regression

[BiffTFinancial]

Here we go Westbrook here we go!

[BiffTFinancial]

Well there's the reason for the Happ rule. I looked at his peripherals and it looks like his SIERA should actually be alot worse, his O-swing% is 5% lower than last year, his first strike is 2% lower, and his SwStrk is almost a full 1% lower with the others being relatively the same. This should translate into a pretty significant drop in Ks and to a lesser extent rise in walks. He has actually seen his K rate increase by almost .5 and his walk rate drop by about .2. He has some serious regression coming in both those categories. His SIERA should be over 5 which would put him in wade davis territory

It's pretty rare to see such an obvious case of coming SIERA regression

hard to believe that JA Happ could get worse. going forward, i'm going to look to play Astros unders (but overs with Happ) and Rangers unders where the wind tunnel is not in play.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

3* Dodgers/Dbacks under 8.5 (-113)

updated card
3* Cardinals/Marlins under 8.5 (-109)
3* A's/Rays under 8.5 (-115)
3* Brewers/Astros under 8 (-107)
3* Dodgers/Dbacks under 8.5 (-113)
2* Cardinals/Marlins FF under 4.5 (-110) - WINNER
2* A's/Rays FF under 4.5 (-115) - WINNER

[BiffTFinancial]

3-3 -3.02u