6 anti-public home dogs Monday

[No coincidences]

How many cash?

WAS +130 vs. Atlanta
HOU +109 vs. Cincy
CHW +159 vs. NYY
COL +124 vs. Philly
SD +122 vs. LAD
SEA +106 vs. Oakland

Can't say I'm all that crazy about any of them personally, but love the home dogs so I'll probably play a few....

[God1]

and what do you feel is being mispriced in any of those games?

[HoulihansTX]

Colorado is the only lean.

[No coincidences]

and what do you feel is being mispriced in any of those games?

Nothing really, though I think you're crazy to lay that kind of road juice with Atlanta and the Yankees.

I agree Houli that the Rockies seem to be the only real viable option, but you just know 2 or 3 of these will cash.

[God1]

Nothing really, though I think you're crazy to lay that kind of road juice with Atlanta and the Yankees.

so how far off are those lines from your fair price?

[No coincidences]

so how far off are those lines from your fair price?

I'm not necessarily saying they're "off" -- I just refuse to lay -150 on any road team, especially against .500 ballclubs like the Nats and White Sox. They could both very well cash, but you won't see me on either one.

[BigDan]

i watched chisox struggle with a lefty that could only throw his fastball and a hanging breaking ball over for k's and they couldnt make him pay, so taking them against cc isnt something im will to do. not saying im jumping all over yanks at that number atm but i can pretty much promise i have no interest cws.


I feel like despite everything i hate about even thinking about playing A's on road (which is more than likely the reason for the generous looking number on a hot team vs a team that cant hit at all). Not to mention think Beavan kid is really solid, hard not to respect kid that held his own against bos and tex. this to me about Cahill vs sea pathetic offense and at this price unless i find something wrong with what ive seen so far i have to play Cahill.

[God1]

I'm not necessarily saying they're "off" -- I just refuse to lay -150 on any road team, especially against .500 ballclubs like the Nats and White Sox. They could both very well cash, but you won't see me on either one.

That's about as absurdly arbitrary as it gets

[HoulihansTX]

God1, are you going to offer some insight, or just be a tool?

[borednaz]

Washington & Cws are the only two plays I see with some value. NYY's do perform well for fatboy, but they could just lay down for game 1. Atl has looked like a$$ @home so why expect better on the road.

My problem with nats/atl is if the other team scores 3 or more by some fluke the game is over. To much of a coin toss.

Houston might win by accident, but the books are giving me no value to take a AAA team if lucky even at home right after they chop shopped their team.

[BigDan]

peavy + chisox pen makes me think it time to get back on nyy TT overs with fat boy on the buump way early tho and i need umps dammit. but should be reasonably low number

[No coincidences]

That's about as absurdly arbitrary as it gets

If you want to lay -170 with the Yankees on the road or -150 with the Braves on the road, be my guest. I don't take faves of -150 on up hardly ever anyway, let alone in visitors' ballparks with the entire world on their side.

You may define it as "absurdly arbitrary," L and M, but it's just not efficient business to go with that kind of juice in baseball on a road team. Too many variables to feel comfortable in my book.

[God1]

If you want to lay -170 with the Yankees on the road or -150 with the Braves on the road, be my guest. I don't take faves of -150 on up hardly ever anyway, let alone in visitors' ballparks with the entire world on their side.

If the price is right I would bet a -500 favorite. The entire world being on the other side is sometimes relevant, but when you are talking about -150 road when the expected betting volume is the entire world against, how relevant is that? I'm not sure I know the answer. Them being on the road is good enough to eliminate them from betting if you're not projecting games, but then if you aren't projecting games aren't you just flipping coins long term anyway?

You may define it as "absurdly arbitrary," L and M, but it's just not efficient business to go with that kind of juice in baseball on a road team. Too many variables to feel comfortable in my book.

To eliminate entire opportunity of bets purely based on price is ridiculous

[God1]

Washington & Cws are the only two plays I see with some value. NYY's do perform well for fatboy, but they could just lay down for game 1. Atl has looked like a$$ @home so why expect better on the road.

My problem with nats/atl is if the other team scores 3 or more by some fluke the game is over. To much of a coin toss.

Houston might win by accident, but the books are giving me no value to take a AAA team if lucky even at home right after they chop shopped their team.

This is about as useless as analysis gets

[borednaz]

And you have contributed what to this thread sir? I seeonly complaints & trolling. You will fit in better with the players talk crybaby crowd, please troll there from now.

[No coincidences]

If the price is right I would bet a -500 favorite. The entire world being on the other side is sometimes relevant, but when you are talking about -150 road when the expected betting volume is the entire world against, how relevant is that? I'm not sure I know the answer. Them being on the road is good enough to eliminate them from betting if you're not projecting games, but then if you aren't projecting games aren't you just flipping coins long term anyway?



To eliminate entire opportunity of bets purely based on price is ridiculous

Not in baseball. No way.

There is no "opportunity" of bets in the category of laying -170 on the road. That's just plain stupid when it comes to baseball. Like playing a -250 home fave. Not worth the time or effort due to the variables that makes baseball a lot less predictable than football or even basketball.

There are better bets out there than taking the Yankees and/or Braves at these prices. Always.

[blackeyeshamus]

Not in baseball. No way.

There is no "opportunity" of bets in the category of laying -170 on the road. That's just plain stupid when it comes to baseball. Like playing a -250 home fave. Not worth the time or effort due to the variables that makes baseball a lot less predictable than football or even basketball.

There are better bets out there than taking the Yankees and/or Braves at these prices. Always.

[God1]

there's clearly opportunity, in the past week there have been multiple -200 and up opens that have moved more than 20 cents

[No coincidences]

there's clearly opportunity, in the past week there have been multiple -200 and up opens that have moved more than 20 cents

So?

I'm just saying you're better off not including these kinds of bets in your baseball arsenal. I'm not against doing it in football or basketball, but I just don't see the point in baseball -- especially on the road against a .500 team that has a pitcher who still has dangerous plus stuff if he ever figures out how to harness it.

[DemoralizdDreamr]

Ill take
SEA
WAS
SD

[CTOWNsCAPPIN]

there's clearly opportunity, in the past week there have been multiple -200 and up opens that have moved more than 20 cents

go away if you offer no good advice. i was sick of your responses after your first........good bye..... and back to the topic...

[CTOWNsCAPPIN]

Houston and San Diego for me..BOL.....let's cash these dogs.....

[CTOWNsCAPPIN]

So?

I'm just saying you're better off not including these kinds of bets in your baseball arsenal. I'm not against doing it in football or basketball, but I just don't see the point in baseball -- especially on the road against a .500 team that has a pitcher who still has dangerous plus stuff if he ever figures out how to harness it.

[NBA_Brosuf]

hou
sd
fl
cards

How many will I win? probably none

LOL

[CTOWNsCAPPIN]

there's clearly opportunity, in the past week there have been multiple -200 and up opens that have moved more than 20 cents

go for it big dawg......you will be broke doing this gambling on Baseball.......short favorites or dogs is how to win long term betting bases........i never lay more than 150.......ever.......to each his/her own.

[God1]

go for it big dawg......you will be broke doing this gambling on Baseball

so i'll be broke beating closing lines?

[CTOWNsCAPPIN]

go ahead and bet 180 and up favorites...........yes you will be broke long term..............betting bases

[No coincidences]

so i'll be broke beating closing lines?

I don't think line movement with such heavy faves is as valuable -- especially if the public's hammering the play (i.e., St. Louis tonight. Beating the closing number here was irrelevant).

If a -230 fave closes at -250, that doesn't make it a smart play just because you beat the closing number.

[CTOWNsCAPPIN]

football and basketball ML, different story....bases forget about it

[God1]

I don't think line movement with such heavy faves is as valuable -- especially if the public's hammering the play (i.e., St. Louis tonight. Beating the closing number here was irrelevant).

are you serious? If I got -140 tonight on st louis that was a profitable bet. I think the true close was around -148, the results of one game are completely irrelevant. Beating the true close by 8 cents consistenly and you'd be shopping for yachts

If a -230 fave closes at -250, that doesn't make it a smart play just because you beat the closing number.

If the true line close is above -230 of course it is. The closing line is extremely efficient

[No coincidences]

are you serious? If I got -140 tonight on st louis that was a profitable bet. I think the true close was around -148, the results of one game are completely irrelevant. Beating the true close by 8 cents consistenly and you'd be shopping for yachts




If the true line close is above -230 of course it is. The closing line is extremely efficient

I beat the "true close" with the White Sox and the Dodgers by taking them this morning -- where did that get me?

I beat the closing number a lot, and I don't find those bets hitting at some absurd percentage. You definitely want to beat the closing number, but that doesn't mean that bet is anywhere near a given. Plus, it's different in baseball where you're betting ML's vs. a point spread.

[God1]

I beat the "true close" with the White Sox and the Dodgers by taking them this morning -- where did that get me?

a short term loss but a long term profitable bet. The best sports bettors in the world hit at a 55% clip and guess what? That means they lose 45%. This is elementary stuff here

I beat the closing number a lot, and I don't find those bets hitting at some absurd percentage.

You definitely want to beat the closing number, but that doesn't mean that bet is anywhere near a given.

Over the long term, and talking in terms of the entire market, it is a profitable bet 100% of the time

Plus, it's different in baseball where you're betting ML's vs. a point spread.

oh dear god it's exactly the same concept and works exactly the same way

[BigDan]

so i'll be broke beating closing lines?

not likely..

[No coincidences]

a short term loss but a long term profitable bet. The best sports bettors in the world hit at a 55% clip and guess what? That means they lose 45%. This is elementary stuff here







Over the long term, and talking in terms of the entire market, it is a profitable bet 100% of the time



oh dear god it's exactly the same concept and works exactly the same way

If beating the closing number is such a lucrative business, why not just follow late steam? You may sacrifice and bet a -140 vs. a -130, but at least you know you're on the same side as where the money's supposedly going.

Again, I'm not saying it's not profitable to do so, but it's also far from fool-proof. When you factor what side the public is on, it complicates things further.

It's the "exact same concept," except for the fact that all you're doing in baseball is betting a winner over a loser. In football or basketball, the spread number is much more important to obtain. If you beat the closer by taking a -4 and the team wins by 5 when the number finishes at -6, you've accomplished your goal. If you bet a -170 fave in baseball and it closes at -180, the only thing you've sacrificed is the number as long as that team still comes out on top. A win is still a win.

[starbuck2233]

careful

I think 2 of your six have a reasonable chance being Colorado and Wash on the plus.Just my opinion.Never know these days.I bet value but I have to have some confidence after I've done my capping,just don't throw money up in the air.Astros,are you kidding,triple a team,and to that Reds guy below.Stay away,those unpredictable idiots just lost 4 straight to the mets.the've srewed me a ton this season,bums.