3* Marlins/Braves under 7.5 (-117)
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other early leans
Royals/Tribe under 9.5 (swore off Carmona unders in May; best play is probably Tribe TT under but i can't play it myself)
LAA/DET over 6
BOS/CWS under 9.5
AZ/LAD over 7.5
COL/SD over 7
CHC/StL under 8.5 (probably better off avoiding total and playing Cards)Comment -
Some interesting leans...I went with the under in LAA/Detroit, just based on the phenomenal year both pitchers are having. Generally, in matchups like this, both pitchers will have the intangible motivation to pitch well when they go against another true ace. This is probably one of the big battles for the CY Young that voters will look back on. Therefore, I expect both pitchers to be ready for today. Both are top 10 in FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA. They both have great K% and I just think they both dominate in a 2-1 type game. However, they both have poor histories against the other teams' lineup and the ump has an over lean, so if you play the over in that one I would not be surprised if you end up cashing.
I like your Cubs/Cards lean, but I'm not locking it in until I see the results of my day game plays. I think you also know about the ESPN Sunday Night Game of the Week under trend. Most of those ESPN Sunday night games stay under. Today, we have two pitchers with poor standard stats but pretty good advanced stats. Both Dempster and Westbrook throw ground balls, especially Westrbrook, and Dempster has a great K%. So I agree with you and that one should stay under the posted total, although I still need to look at the game more in-depth as to weather, ump and some other things.
Good luck with your plays today Biff!
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thanks, LTA. i'm on the verge of crossing off my Angels/Tigers over lean. looking at the past performance of the model that i use, it's been weakest when picking overs in games involving elite SPs. this game has 2 elite SPs, so i should probably be very skeptical of playing that over. also wondering if Cards -1 might be preferable to under there, but feel pretty good that i will be on one of them. BOL to you today too.Originally posted by Love The ActionSome interesting leans...I went with the under in LAA/Detroit, just based on the phenomenal year both pitchers are having. Generally, in matchups like this, both pitchers will have the intangible motivation to pitch well when they go against another true ace. This is probably one of the big battles for the CY Young that voters will look back on. Therefore, I expect both pitchers to be ready for today. Both are top 10 in FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA. They both have great K% and I just think they both dominate in a 2-1 type game. However, they both have poor histories against the other teams' lineup and the ump has an over lean, so if you play the over in that one I would not be surprised if you end up cashing.
I like your Cubs/Cards lean, but I'm not locking it in until I see the results of my day game plays. I think you also know about the ESPN Sunday Night Game of the Week under trend. Most of those ESPN Sunday night games stay under. Today, we have two pitchers with poor standard stats but pretty good advanced stats. Both Dempster and Westbrook throw ground balls, especially Westrbrook, and Dempster has a great K%. So I agree with you and that one should stay under the posted total, although I still need to look at the game more in-depth as to weather, ump and some other things.
Good luck with your plays today Biff!Comment -
you gotta have some serious balls to play over in that matchup, i want no part of it. if the ump didnt suck so much id be considering neither team to score 3 prop, hell i might anyway cause i rather get the fat odds and hope for real duel than be on the juiced under with everyone and their mothers.Comment -
also lean under in PIT/PHI, or maybe FF under or PIT TT under.Comment -
whoa, like a lot of games, need to narrow them down. revised list of leans:
KC/CLE under 9.5
BOS/CWS under 9.5
NYM/WAS under 8
PIT/PHI under 8
AZ/LAD over 7.5
COL/SD over 7
CHC/StL under 8.5Comment -
What's the deal in the Colorado/SD game? I can't get a line from either of my locals. I am with you on that over lean in that game based on Nicasio's poor road splits and LeBlanc's poor history against Colorado. Guccione is the ump with a solid over lean. At the same time, SD couldn't get more than 2 off of that gascan Hammels so who knows...Comment -
i'm really wondering. is it possible that maybe there's another deal in the works, or at least the rumor of another?Originally posted by Love The ActionComment -
biff, bol don't forget to put your best in "hit me" last contest
till next weekend
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adding
3* Mets/Nationals under 8 (-110)
updated card
3* Marlins/Braves under 7.5 (-117)
3* Mets/Nationals under 8 (-110)Comment -
can't commit to Carmona under yet, and it dropped to 9. gotta head out for awhile, father of the year type shit and all. back around time games start.Comment -
Good luck Biff. I am playing the CHC/STL under 8.5, but I think it may go to 8 runs.
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i played them all.good luck.Comment -
Like that Natties under as well...I will probably be on it as well but waiting to see what happens with the line.Comment -
Big drop on the Cubbies under...down to 8...I'm not pulling the trigger until after all the day games. Might not even play it. Dempster's numbers against the Cards are atrocious....Comment -
adding
2* White Sox -1 (+119)Comment -
adding
3* Cubs/Cardinals under 8.5 (-115)Comment -
with you on the nationals under. zito fade is on today. I went from betting almost all dogs the past few months to mostly favorites very recently. Also on the against the white sox when a lefty is pitching fadeComment -
updated card
3* Marlins/Braves under 7.5 (-117)
3* Mets/Nationals under 8 (-110)
3* Cubs/Cardinals under 8.5 (-115)
2* White Sox -1 (+119)
may add AZ/LAD over, Cards later. BOL to all today.Comment -
This..Originally posted by God1
And I hate it, but you have to be much more selective when playing dogs these days. This is nothing new for late season baseball, but usually does not hit until August.Comment -
All it is is coincidence because the overrated pitching and teams have been on the road in the past weekOriginally posted by Love The Action
also, this statement is nonsensebut you have to be much more selective when playing dogs these days.Comment -
Good luck...Originally posted by BiffTFinancial
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french toast bacon coffeeComment -
This is the statement that is nonsense. The books have clearly adjusted to the dominance of favorites in the last three weeks -- probably from July 8th and on. The juice on top faves has gone from around a consistent -150 to -200 and above. It's simply a fact that late in the season when the crap teams are clearly out of the playoff races, the faves take over. The juice on top faves has not just gone up over the last week (it has been longer than that) and it has nothing to do with road games. I am sure for someone that values pricing so much this has not gone unnoticed...Originally posted by God1Comment -
When you have the 4 best teams in baseball playing 4 of the bottom 10 teams in baseball AT HOME you get that. Yankees/mariners, red sox/royals, phillies/pirates, brewers/astrosOriginally posted by Love The Action
The juice on top faves has not just gone up over the last week (it has been longer than that) and it has nothing to do with road games.
. see above
pricing is the end all and be all, just making this statement is hilarious. pricing is EVERYTHING jesus. Yankees at -280 could be a winning bet while -290 could be a losing betI am sure for someone that values pricing so much this has not gone unnoticed...Comment -
good luck
Originally posted by BiffTFinancialComment -
Exactly...I agree with almost everything you said about pricing...except the phrase is "be all end all" not the other way around.Originally posted by God1When you have the 4 best teams in baseball playing 4 of the bottom 10 teams in baseball AT HOME you get that. Yankees/mariners, red sox/royals, phillies/pirates, brewers/astros
. see above
pricing is the end all and be all, just making this statement is hilarious. pricing is EVERYTHING jesus. Yankees at -280 could be a winning bet while -290 could be a losing bet
The point is that the increase in prices on faves have occurred before the series you mentioned. Check the pricing history for any of the favorites you mentioned. It's merely the result of the market, but the timing cannot be disputed.Comment -
No this is completely wrong. Favorites were priced at -135 in april, -136 in may, -136 in june, -140 in july. Recently we have a seen a spate of matchups from the best and worst teams in baseball so a slight uptick in july was expected.Originally posted by Love The Action
There's no such thing as "favorites" being priced higher or lower. There is such thing as teams being priced higher or lower. Stop talking in such ambiguous and arbitrary termsComment -
Originally posted by God1
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adding
3* Dbacks/Dodgers over 7.5 (+110)
2* Rays ML (-125)
updated card
3* Marlins/Braves under 7.5 (-117)
3* Mets/Nationals under 8 (-110)
3* Dbacks/Dodgers over 7.5 (+110)
3* Cubs/Cardinals under 8.5 (-115)
2* White Sox -1 (+119)
2* Rays ML (-125)Comment -
Wow texas just became so nasty. Uehara and Mike Adams they went from one of the worst pens in baseball to one of the best overnight. That just made the AL wide openComment -
Dunn has managed to strand 5 runners in 3 ABs and one of those ABs was a hit!Comment -
he should have an entire department dedicated to him at the Elias Sports Bureau.Originally posted by God1Comment -
Why do you only post that? WTF does it mean?Originally posted by 3PtShooterComment
