Front Page Picks (Thu., Jun 26)

[Willie Bee]

Rays, Marlins Over 9½ in early matinee

Game Time: 06/26/2008 12:10 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com
The Over is 9-3 in the last 12 Marlins home games after they were shellacked 15-3 here last night. With Mark Hendrickson regressing and Matt Garza inconsistent, especially on the road, go Over again.

The Tampa Bay Rays beat the Florida Marlins 15-3 here last night, and while this may not be as big a blowout today, we do expect another high scoring game.

If you recall, we mentioned a while back that Mark Hendrickson of the Marlins was pitching over his head in the early going, and that he would return to being his mediocre self eventually. Well, Big Mark has made us look like geniuses lately, as he has gone six straight starts without recording a Quality Start. He has a whopping 10.08 WHIP and a disgusting 1.95 WHIP over those last six outings. The southpaw is facing a Rays lineup that is coming on vs. lefties lately, hitting .292 against them the last 10 games.

Now Matt Garza does have great stuff for Tampa, but he has not been very consistent, especially on the road. He is 1-3 with a 6.25 ERA and an ugly 1.55 WHIP away from home, and he has failed to record a Quality Start in any of his last three road outings.

Finally, the Over is 9-3 in the last 12 Florida home games, and we look for a continuation of that pattern here.

Free Pick: Rays, Marlins Over 9½ (-110)

[Willie Bee]

Pittsburgh Pirates (+130) a pretty play vs. New York Yankees

Game Time: 06/26/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Bread | sbrforum.com

New York just isn't ugly enough to win these days, though Jason Giambi is doing his part to disprove that. Play the Pittsburgh Pirates at home against the Yankees.

I’m sticking with my early season prediction that this is the worst Yankees team to come around in many years. This will be brought to fruition in a microcosm on Thursday’s game with the Pirates (+130).

I’m not only down on this Yankees team for their level of play. They’re just not as ugly as they used to be. When you lose Joe Torre and Randy Johnson in the same offseason, that’s a whole lot of ugly you just unloaded. Not that most women wouldn’t be all over a 1930’s style gangster and a 6-10 giant who just won’t let go of that mullet.

The Yankees have won championships with ugly. Anyone remember Scott Brosius and Paul O’Neill?

The Yankees sit six games above .500 with a record of 42-36. That is due in large part to a very nice 10-2 run they recently went on. That run came against Kansas City, Oakland, Houston and San Diego (145-164). So this pace should continue against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, (72-86) right? Wrong.

The Yanks are 2-3 since. And barring a few winning streaks fueled by aging veterans’ pride, I would expect this most of the year.

Mike Mussina matches up against Paul Maholm in this one. Mussina has an ERA of 3.93; Maholm 4.41. Only about a half-run difference. With Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui both possibly being out of the lineup with injuries, this bodes well for Pittsburgh.

One player for New York who is having a revival season, in more ways than one, is Jason Giambi. After hitting only 14 homers last year, he already has 17 thus far. He is also single handedly attempting to keep the team ugly quota by bringing back the 70’s porn moustache. It’s not pretty.

His timely hitting has been the sole reason they have won several games so far. But he would have to be a magician to keep up this pace.

Think Jason Jambi. Mecka Lecka Hi Mecka Heiny Home Run!

The Pirates have a competent lineup, headed up by catcher Ryan Doumit and Jason Bay. They should rough up pitcher Mike Mussina who is so old, he has probably pitched to Willie Stargell at some point.

Take Pittsburgh (+130) at this spread. And if you feel so inclined, send some of your winnings to the Jason Giambi Moustache fund. If his teammates won’t tell him, somebody should.

[SBR Lou]

Brilliant artistry, Bread...

[Willie Bee]

Indians -154 to knock down SF Giants

Game Time: 06/26/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Bob Harvey | bobharveysports.com

Cleveland has home field advantage plus the edge on the mound with lefty Cliff Lee. The only question is can the Indians' offense score enough to get past the San Francisco Giants.

Cliff Lee, looking to move into a tie for the major league lead in wins, takes the mound for a last-place Indians team trying to end its struggles at the plate in the finale of a three-game interleague series with the Giants.

Lee (10-1, 2.45 ERA) has shut down more than his share of lineups, allowing two runs or less in each of his last three starts and winning four straight decisions. However the big question is can Cleveland score enough to support Lee’s bid for his 11th victory? The Indians are in danger of being swept in this series after scoring a total of three runs in the first two games.

San Francisco will go with Matt Cain this evening and Cain is a guy with “no-hit” stuff. After a slow start to the season, Cain is 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA in his last three starts. Neither team has any “mashers” to speak of so I’ll go with Lee in a close one over Cain. I’ll also be taking a serious look at the Under in this one.

Free Pick: Indians -154

[Willie Bee]

Maholm, Pirates +125 vs. NY Yankees

Game Time: 06/26/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Ross Benjamin | phoenixsports.com

The Yankees have struggled on the road this season when facing southpaws, while Pirates lefty Paul Maholm has been money at home. Play Pittsburgh Thursday night at PNC Park.

The Yankees are just 12-24 in their last 36 games on the road versus a left-handed starting pitcher. The Pirates are a solid 24-17 at home this season and 11-5 in their last 16 at home versus a team with a winning percentage of better than .500.

Pittsburgh starter Paul Maholm is 10-2 with his last 12 team starts at home including a perfect 7-0 versus a team with a winning percentage of better than .500. Play on the Pittsburgh Thursday night.

Free Pick: Pirates (+125)

[Willie Bee]

Giants +150 sweep Cleveland Indians

Game Time: 06/26/2008 07:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

The Giants have won the first two games of this series, and the hot Cain gives them a good chance at the sweep here. Lee has been phenomenal all year, but he can’t win without any run support.

Cliff Lee of the Cleveland Indians is certainly having a great season, but Matt Cain of the San Francisco Giants is on a nice little roll himself and he is facing a Cleveland offense that is struggling right now.

Cain has five Quality Starts in his last six outings, as he appears to have recovered his fine form of last year when he was arguably the unluckiest pitcher in baseball. He has a nice 2.95 ERA and an excellent 1.03 WHIP in his last three starts. Cain is facing an Indians offense that has scored just six runs in the last three games including a total of three runs in the first two games of this series.

Now nobody can quibble with what Lee has done, going 10-1with a 2.45 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. However, if you only look at the last three starts for each of these pitchers, Lee actually has the higher WHIP (1.23), and his ERA is not significantly better (2.41) than Cain over this span.

Thus, at this price, we feel that the Giants are worth an investment to get the upset and record the series sweep.

Free Pick: Giants +150

[Willie Bee]

Detroit Tigers -128 vs. Cardinals

Game Time: 06/26/2008 01:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

The Tigers are coming around and part of the resurgence is due to Nate Robertson's improvement. Detroit takes this getaway game at home over the banged-up St. Louis Cardinals.

Our Thursday afternoon MLB selection is on the Detroit Tigers at home in Motown over the St. Louis Cardinals.

It's not too late for the Detroit Tigers. Despite a first half of the season that has been so far below expectations that it's almost impossible to measure, the Tigers find themselves closing in on a .500 record and only five games behind the front running Chicago White Sox in the American League Central Division. Detroit has won 11 of their last 14 games, and has gotten surprising performances from some unlikely sources, one of which is tonight's starter, lefthanded veteran Nate Robertson.

Robertson started the season like the team did: Very poorly and a major disappointment. Two months into the season, Robertson found himself with a 3-6 record and an ERA of over six runs. He's not going to make the All-Star squad or give John Lackey a run for his money, but Robertson has now won his last three starts in a row and has lowered his ERA by about half a run.

Cardinal right-hander Todd Wellemeyer is going to test his sore pitching arm today in his first start since having to leave the game on June 13 with elbow soreness, what turned out to be his worst start of the season. It's a tough spot for Wellemeyer to make his comeback as the Detroit bats have really been heating up lately, and the St. Louis bullpen, which will be called on if Wellemeyer can't stay in the game very long, has been atrocious lately. Injuries have absolutely decimated the Cardinal pitching staff this season. Take the Tigers.

Free Pick: Tigers -128

[Willie Bee]

Back LA Dodgers -106 vs. White Sox

Game Time: 06/26/2008 03:10 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | 10starpicks.com

In a game featuring two quality young left-handers, the advantage goes to Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. Lay it on Los Angeles this afternoon against the Chicago White Sox.

I will be riding the Dodgers once again. The pitching has been solid yet again at home, posting a 3.36 ERA which is best in the National League following the four-hit shutout last night from Eric Stults. The bullpen has been the main reason for the solid pitching as that ERA is at 2.65 and now they are coming off a day of rest.

The bats are hitting at a .269 clip at Dodger Stadium while of late, they have averaged 4.8 runs per games over their last nine games after scoring a total of 11 runs in the previous five games.

The White Sox are struggling away from home this season and this current road trip has not helped. They are 1-4 on this trip and prior to the win on Tuesday, they had dropped nine straight games on the road and are now a dismal 1-10 over their last 11 games away from home. Chicago is hitting .253 on the road and it is averaging a mere 4.0 RPG away from home which is 21st in the majors. The White Sox have averaged 3.4 RPG over the last five games and they are hitting only .236 against lefties this season.

Clayton Kershaw will look to redeem himself following a below average performance last time out against the Indians. He allowed four runs in just five innings and that came after giving up two runs or fewer in three straight outings. Of his six starts this season, three have been during the day and three have come at night. He has a 6.43 ERA at night while posting a 2.40 ERA during daylight hours. He remains winless but can breakthrough here backed by some solid run support.

Chicago counters with John Danks who has been very solid this season but is still a little inconsistent. Nine of his 15 starts have been quality outings and the reason more have not is due to the fact he has not been able to last long in a lot of games. He has gone past six innings only once in his last 10 starts.

Also, the White Sox do not score a lot of runs for him as they are averaging just 4.0 RPG in those 15 starts. Despite allowing just one run over his last two starts, Chicago dropped both games. Play Los Angeles for 1½ units.

Free Pick: Dodgers -106