When does a team that has lost 16 in a row offer good value?...

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  • LT Profits
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-27-06
    • 90963

    #1
    When does a team that has lost 16 in a row offer good value?...
    TODAY

    Forget about the losing streak, I'll take King Felix at +135 or better (I got +137) vs. Phil Hughes every time.
  • HoulihansTX
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 02-12-09
    • 30566

    #2
    When they have a top 5 pitcher on the mound
    Comment
    • LT Profits
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 10-27-06
      • 90963

      #3
      Originally posted by HoulihansTX
      When they have a top 5 pitcher on the mound
      A top 5 pitcher at +137 vs. a pitcher with a dead arm.
      Comment
      • Doc JS
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 09-15-06
        • 6885

        #4
        If they've lost 16 in a row, I'm guessing King Felix pitched in at least a few of those games...

        Its still the M's and it's still the Yankees at home and the M's have still lost 16 in a row...
        Comment
        • trytrytry
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 03-13-06
          • 23656

          #5
          like that play today.
          Comment
          • will2survive
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 11-26-09
            • 8099

            #6
            I like King Felix (and he could win) but no point in taking the Mariners with a 16 game losing streak and against the Yankees. Sooner or later they'll win and you could possibly get double or probably more of your investment. I just assume not to pick the game.
            Comment
            • Glitch
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 07-08-09
              • 11795

              #7
              probably lose 1-0. they're pitiful lately.

              but that is correct answer- with the king on the mound.
              Comment
              • Cap dat 4ss
                Restricted User
                • 10-11-10
                • 3665

                #8
                I wouldn't play it for anything less than +150 but good luck to LT, I'm cheering for the M's!
                Comment
                • shushu
                  SBR Rookie
                  • 07-20-11
                  • 39

                  #9
                  I agree with LT profits.....more of a fade Hughes play for me though......he's terrible. Small wager here
                  Comment
                  • og4667
                    SBR MVP
                    • 09-17-09
                    • 2438

                    #10
                    good point but even at +135 might not be enough. Might take a shot on the alternate -1.5 +200
                    Comment
                    • pavyracer
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 04-12-07
                      • 82857

                      #11
                      Have a back up Martingale plan. A King does not lead a team with 16 losses in a row.
                      Comment
                      • Glitch
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 07-08-09
                        • 11795

                        #12
                        so many people (unfortunately myself included) have during this streak at some point said its a good idea to bet on this sh*t-stain of a team. this thread is no different. be careful. hernandez has pitched probably 4 times during this losing streak.
                        Comment
                        • jpowderly
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 06-30-06
                          • 872

                          #13
                          I lost with King Felix last time . not again !!!!
                          Comment
                          • RubberKettle
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 12-28-09
                            • 6421

                            #14
                            How quickly 16 will go to 17 and then to 20.

                            Can't back this bunch of nobs.

                            Seattle has only scored over 4 runs 4x on this streak, I'd fancy the Yankees to get 4 runs off anyone at home.
                            Comment
                            • yisman
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 09-01-08
                              • 75682

                              #15
                              This is a beautiful spot to bet Seattle.

                              Hughes just isn't good. He has not been good as a starter aside from a few good starts to begin last season.

                              I don't know how long it's going to take people to understand this. I've been saying it since last season.

                              Originally posted by will2survive
                              I like King Felix (and he could win) but no point in taking the Mariners with a 16 game losing streak and against the Yankees. Sooner or later they'll win and you could possibly get double or probably more of your investment. I just assume not to pick the game.
                              What?
                              [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                              [/quote]

                              [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                              Comment
                              • ROYAJA8
                                SBR MVP
                                • 10-23-09
                                • 2069

                                #16
                                Hughes may not be that good but that seattle offense is a joke. Take the great Yankees
                                Comment
                                • aceking
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 09-07-05
                                  • 4782

                                  #17
                                  18-game losing streak

                                  Pending 7/27/11 1:05pm MLB Baseball 970 New York Yankees -1 -108* vs Seattle Mariners (F Hernandez - R must Start P Hughes - R must Start)
                                  Comment
                                  • deltgen
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 12-31-10
                                    • 865

                                    #18
                                    I suppose Hernandez at this number would rightfully get some people excited, but as for the theory that "they have to win eventually"--people have been saying that since about game 8 of the losing streak. With the Yankees playing in that field with Little League dimensions, the Mariners (regardless of starting pitcher) don't entice me. A loss is a loss, whether it be at +100, -110, or +2000.
                                    Comment
                                    • yisman
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 09-01-08
                                      • 75682

                                      #19
                                      The "due" theory is rubbish. You don't pick a team because they've lost a certain amount in a row.

                                      You do take a team as a nice underdog when they're going with a vastly superior starting pitcher, though.
                                      [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                                      [/quote]

                                      [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                                      Comment
                                      • chase hardy
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 01-07-10
                                        • 1324

                                        #20
                                        I never bet a team on a losing streak, I keep betting against them until they finally win. Have made some good money doing this.
                                        Comment
                                        • bobby heenan
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 03-20-09
                                          • 4120

                                          #21
                                          got it at 140 last night....war king felix
                                          Comment
                                          • Kindred
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 09-09-08
                                            • 2901

                                            #22
                                            I took 135, getting a good price because of the losing streak
                                            Comment
                                            • rfr3sh
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 11-07-09
                                              • 10229

                                              #23
                                              wanted to play yankees TT Under 4.5 but it is too juicy
                                              Comment
                                              • No coincidences
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 01-18-10
                                                • 76300

                                                #24
                                                Felix has looked pitiful the last two times out. He's given up 10 runs and 20 hits in his last 14 IP. He's also thrown at least 115 pitches in seven of his last eight starts. Combined with the current state of the M's, and I don't see a ton of value here. Frankly, Seattle should be +150 in this spot.
                                                Comment
                                                • HoulihansTX
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 02-12-09
                                                  • 30566

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Glitch
                                                  so many people (unfortunately myself included) have during this streak at some point said its a good idea to bet on this sh*t-stain of a team. this thread is no different. be careful. hernandez has pitched probably 4 times during this losing streak.
                                                  Felix pitched in the last game they won

                                                  He has lost twice during this streak. But I think its safe to say that no other pitcher, sans a no-hit performance, would find success either.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • BigDofBA
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 09-30-09
                                                    • 19313

                                                    #26
                                                    I took the under.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • LostBankroll
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 02-10-10
                                                      • 4538

                                                      #27
                                                      Comment
                                                      • LT Profits
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 10-27-06
                                                        • 90963

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by rfr3sh
                                                        wanted to play yankees TT Under 4.5 but it is too juicy
                                                        I got this at -110
                                                        Comment
                                                        • HOT WINGS
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 01-29-10
                                                          • 8055

                                                          #29
                                                          Never good value IMO...... but took under. So hope M's win 3-0 for you
                                                          Comment
                                                          • LT Profits
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 10-27-06
                                                            • 90963

                                                            #30
                                                            Guys, the "due" theory is rubbish, I handicap each game on its own merit and completely ignore any winning or losing streak each team is on.

                                                            And for those saying that Hernandez started four games during the streak, the whole point is that ha has never been this good a price vs. a struggling pitcher It's a simple case of buying low, as Felix may never be this price again for the rest of the season.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • wantitall4moi
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 04-17-10
                                                              • 3063

                                                              #31
                                                              yankees and the over

                                                              people betting the due factor go broke pretty fast. Always bet WITH a streak winning or losing and youll be much better off.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • sonnybaby
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 12-04-09
                                                                • 9770

                                                                #32
                                                                the kings pitch count is gone be high early
                                                                LETS GET IT
                                                                Comment
                                                                • No coincidences
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 01-18-10
                                                                  • 76300

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                                  Guys, the "due" theory is rubbish, I handicap each game on its own merit and completely ignore any winning or losing streak each team is on.

                                                                  And for those saying that Hernandez started four games during the streak, the whole point is that ha has never been this good a price vs. a struggling pitcher It's a simple case of buying low, as Felix may never be this price again for the rest of the season.
                                                                  Felix is almost always this price when he pitches at Yankee Stadium, and I don't think he's ever had a team that's lost 18 in a row behind him before.

                                                                  He's 8-9 with a 3.47 ERA, LT -- not exactly defending Cy Young numbers.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • yisman
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 09-01-08
                                                                    • 75682

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by yisman
                                                                    The "due" theory is rubbish. You don't pick a team because they've lost a certain amount in a row. You do take a team as a nice underdog when they're going with a vastly superior starting pitcher, though.
                                                                    Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                                    Guys, the "due" theory is rubbish, I handicap each game on its own merit and completely ignore any winning or losing streak each team is on.
                                                                    Originally posted by wantitall4moi
                                                                    yankees and the over people betting the due factor go broke pretty fast. Always bet WITH a streak winning or losing and youll be much better off.

                                                                    Who's betting on the due factor?
                                                                    [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                                                                    [/quote]

                                                                    [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • LT Profits
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 10-27-06
                                                                      • 90963

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by No coincidences
                                                                      Felix has looked pitiful the last two times out. He's given up 10 runs and 20 hits in his last 14 IP. He's also thrown at least 115 pitches in seven of his last eight starts. Combined with the current state of the M's, and I don't see a ton of value here. Frankly, Seattle should be +150 in this spot.
                                                                      That is actually a great reason to be ON him here, he is still one of the best pitchers in baseball, Regression to the mean.
                                                                      Comment
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