When does a team that has lost 16 in a row offer good value?...
TODAY
Forget about the losing streak, I'll take King Felix at +135 or better (I got +137) vs. Phil Hughes every time.
HoulihansTX
BARRELED IN @ SBR!
02-12-09
30566
#2
When they have a top 5 pitcher on the mound
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LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#3
Originally posted by HoulihansTX
When they have a top 5 pitcher on the mound
A top 5 pitcher at +137 vs. a pitcher with a dead arm.
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Doc JS
SBR Hall of Famer
09-15-06
6885
#4
If they've lost 16 in a row, I'm guessing King Felix pitched in at least a few of those games...
Its still the M's and it's still the Yankees at home and the M's have still lost 16 in a row...
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trytrytry
SBR Posting Legend
03-13-06
23656
#5
like that play today.
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will2survive
SBR Hall of Famer
11-26-09
8099
#6
I like King Felix (and he could win) but no point in taking the Mariners with a 16 game losing streak and against the Yankees. Sooner or later they'll win and you could possibly get double or probably more of your investment. I just assume not to pick the game.
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Glitch
SBR Posting Legend
07-08-09
11795
#7
probably lose 1-0. they're pitiful lately.
but that is correct answer- with the king on the mound.
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Cap dat 4ss
Restricted User
10-11-10
3665
#8
I wouldn't play it for anything less than +150 but good luck to LT, I'm cheering for the M's!
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shushu
SBR Rookie
07-20-11
39
#9
I agree with LT profits.....more of a fade Hughes play for me though......he's terrible. Small wager here
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og4667
SBR MVP
09-17-09
2438
#10
good point but even at +135 might not be enough. Might take a shot on the alternate -1.5 +200
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pavyracer
SBR Aristocracy
04-12-07
82857
#11
Have a back up Martingale plan. A King does not lead a team with 16 losses in a row.
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Glitch
SBR Posting Legend
07-08-09
11795
#12
so many people (unfortunately myself included) have during this streak at some point said its a good idea to bet on this sh*t-stain of a team. this thread is no different. be careful. hernandez has pitched probably 4 times during this losing streak.
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jpowderly
SBR Wise Guy
06-30-06
872
#13
I lost with King Felix last time . not again !!!!
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RubberKettle
SBR Hall of Famer
12-28-09
6421
#14
How quickly 16 will go to 17 and then to 20.
Can't back this bunch of nobs.
Seattle has only scored over 4 runs 4x on this streak, I'd fancy the Yankees to get 4 runs off anyone at home.
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yisman
SBR Aristocracy
09-01-08
75682
#15
This is a beautiful spot to bet Seattle.
Hughes just isn't good. He has not been good as a starter aside from a few good starts to begin last season.
I don't know how long it's going to take people to understand this. I've been saying it since last season.
Originally posted by will2survive
I like King Felix (and he could win) but no point in taking the Mariners with a 16 game losing streak and against the Yankees. Sooner or later they'll win and you could possibly get double or probably more of your investment. I just assume not to pick the game.
What?
[quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
[/quote]
[quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
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ROYAJA8
SBR MVP
10-23-09
2069
#16
Hughes may not be that good but that seattle offense is a joke. Take the great Yankees
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aceking
SBR MVP
09-07-05
4782
#17
18-game losing streak
Pending 7/27/11 1:05pm MLB Baseball 970 New York Yankees -1 -108* vs Seattle Mariners (F Hernandez - R must Start P Hughes - R must Start)
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deltgen
SBR Wise Guy
12-31-10
865
#18
I suppose Hernandez at this number would rightfully get some people excited, but as for the theory that "they have to win eventually"--people have been saying that since about game 8 of the losing streak. With the Yankees playing in that field with Little League dimensions, the Mariners (regardless of starting pitcher) don't entice me. A loss is a loss, whether it be at +100, -110, or +2000.
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yisman
SBR Aristocracy
09-01-08
75682
#19
The "due" theory is rubbish. You don't pick a team because they've lost a certain amount in a row.
You do take a team as a nice underdog when they're going with a vastly superior starting pitcher, though.
[quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
[/quote]
[quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
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chase hardy
SBR MVP
01-07-10
1324
#20
I never bet a team on a losing streak, I keep betting against them until they finally win. Have made some good money doing this.
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bobby heenan
SBR MVP
03-20-09
4120
#21
got it at 140 last night....war king felix
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Kindred
SBR MVP
09-09-08
2901
#22
I took 135, getting a good price because of the losing streak
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rfr3sh
SBR Posting Legend
11-07-09
10229
#23
wanted to play yankees TT Under 4.5 but it is too juicy
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No coincidences
SBR Aristocracy
01-18-10
76300
#24
Felix has looked pitiful the last two times out. He's given up 10 runs and 20 hits in his last 14 IP. He's also thrown at least 115 pitches in seven of his last eight starts. Combined with the current state of the M's, and I don't see a ton of value here. Frankly, Seattle should be +150 in this spot.
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HoulihansTX
BARRELED IN @ SBR!
02-12-09
30566
#25
Originally posted by Glitch
so many people (unfortunately myself included) have during this streak at some point said its a good idea to bet on this sh*t-stain of a team. this thread is no different. be careful. hernandez has pitched probably 4 times during this losing streak.
Felix pitched in the last game they won
He has lost twice during this streak. But I think its safe to say that no other pitcher, sans a no-hit performance, would find success either.
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BigDofBA
SBR Posting Legend
09-30-09
19313
#26
I took the under.
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LostBankroll
Restricted User
02-10-10
4538
#27
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LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#28
Originally posted by rfr3sh
wanted to play yankees TT Under 4.5 but it is too juicy
I got this at -110
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HOT WINGS
SBR Hall of Famer
01-29-10
8055
#29
Never good value IMO...... but took under. So hope M's win 3-0 for you
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LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#30
Guys, the "due" theory is rubbish, I handicap each game on its own merit and completely ignore any winning or losing streak each team is on.
And for those saying that Hernandez started four games during the streak, the whole point is that ha has never been this good a price vs. a struggling pitcher It's a simple case of buying low, as Felix may never be this price again for the rest of the season.
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wantitall4moi
SBR MVP
04-17-10
3063
#31
yankees and the over
people betting the due factor go broke pretty fast. Always bet WITH a streak winning or losing and youll be much better off.
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sonnybaby
SBR Hall of Famer
12-04-09
9770
#32
the kings pitch count is gone be high early
LETS GET IT
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No coincidences
SBR Aristocracy
01-18-10
76300
#33
Originally posted by LT Profits
Guys, the "due" theory is rubbish, I handicap each game on its own merit and completely ignore any winning or losing streak each team is on.
And for those saying that Hernandez started four games during the streak, the whole point is that ha has never been this good a price vs. a struggling pitcher It's a simple case of buying low, as Felix may never be this price again for the rest of the season.
Felix is almost always this price when he pitches at Yankee Stadium, and I don't think he's ever had a team that's lost 18 in a row behind him before.
He's 8-9 with a 3.47 ERA, LT -- not exactly defending Cy Young numbers.
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yisman
SBR Aristocracy
09-01-08
75682
#34
Originally posted by yisman
The "due" theory is rubbish. You don't pick a team because they've lost a certain amount in a row. You do take a team as a nice underdog when they're going with a vastly superior starting pitcher, though.
Originally posted by LT Profits
Guys, the "due" theory is rubbish, I handicap each game on its own merit and completely ignore any winning or losing streak each team is on.
Originally posted by wantitall4moi
yankees and the over people betting the due factor go broke pretty fast. Always bet WITH a streak winning or losing and youll be much better off.
Who's betting on the due factor?
[quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
[/quote]
[quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
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LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#35
Originally posted by No coincidences
Felix has looked pitiful the last two times out. He's given up 10 runs and 20 hits in his last 14 IP. He's also thrown at least 115 pitches in seven of his last eight starts. Combined with the current state of the M's, and I don't see a ton of value here. Frankly, Seattle should be +150 in this spot.
That is actually a great reason to be ON him here, he is still one of the best pitchers in baseball, Regression to the mean.