Tuesday

[BiffTFinancial]

3* Angels/Tribe under 7 (-120)
3* Mets/Reds under 8 (+100)
3* Red Sox team over 5.5 (-105)
3* Tigers/White Sox under 7 (+105)

BOL to all tonight.

word to the wise, i've been cold since the all-star break, i do not recommend tailing.

[BigDan]

think you gonna start heating back up tonight bro.

[God1]

Hate the mets Reds under. Reds at home vs a lefty and Cueto obviously with a one way ticket on regression railroad

I'm also on the Tigers under, not sure how solid it is with the market heavily favoring the under but the Adam Dunn factor is probably enough

[BiffTFinancial]

think you gonna start heating back up tonight bro.

thanks, pal, i hope so. the way things have gone the past two weeks, the Angels, Tribe, Tigers and CWS each will give up 3 unearned runs and Westbrook and Zimmerman will both throw 2-0 gems in the final leans on the cutting room floor, heh heh. i'll be crawling deep inside my Phil Steele tonight and cranking out Big Ten and SEC power rankings, and i don't need the stress of unearned runs.

[bigballer891]

no ellsbury or youkilis today

[Ice House]

bifftfinancial who is that in your avatar?

[Ice House]

How is Weaver when pitching on the East coast?

[God1]

no ellsbury or youklis in the lineup and ZERO line movement?? were these expected?

[God1]

How is Weaver when pitching on the East coast?

How is Weaver when pitching after eating eggs for breakfast?

[bigballer891]

no ellsbury or youklis in the lineup and ZERO line movement?? were these expected?

Pinny is dealing over 5 juiced to the over, I think youkilis was expected, ellsbury not.

[BiffTFinancial]

Hate the mets Reds under. Reds at home vs a lefty and Cueto obviously with a one way ticket on regression railroad

what's up, buddy. well, the possibility does exist. that said, other than teeing off on Derek Lowe last weekend, the Reds haven't hit anyone well the last couple of weeks. while the Cueto and the Reds BP arguably are due for a regression, Niese and the Mets BP arguably are due for an improvement under the same metrics (though, admittedly, Cueto's disparity is much larger). one important thing in my mind is that i expect both SPs to throw a lot of ground balls, and the Reds are an outstanding fielding team and the Mets are solid (other than that tomato can David Wright). BOL to you tonight, God.

[Ice House]

[God1]

Pinny is dealing over 5 juiced to the over, I think youkilis was expected, ellsbury not.

Whats relevant is when the line moved not how much an over is juiced. Since the lineup has come out there has been no movement. It had to have been expected, I don't know how though. Any idea?

[God1]

what's up, buddy. well, the possibility does exist. that said, other than teeing off on Derek Lowe last weekend, the Reds haven't hit anyone well the last couple of weeks.

Still sporting something like 2nd best OPS against lefties

while the Cueto and the Reds BP arguably are due for a regression, Niese and the Mets BP arguably are due for an improvement under the same metrics (though, admittedly, Cueto's disparity is much larger)

Niese's SIERA is only .3 lower than his actual ERA and his splits are significantly better against lefties, which is a problem against the reds obviously. Mets bullpen is about average in xFIP but that included K-Rod

one important thing in my mind is that i expect both SPs to throw a lot of ground balls, and the Reds are an outstanding fielding team and the Mets are solid (other than that tomato can David Wright). BOL to you tonight, God.

So how much does impact does that have on the true line? I think something so general would already be priced in

[BiffTFinancial]

bifftfinancial who is that in your avatar?

Amanda Knox

How is Weaver when pitching on the East coast?

not sure, but the Tribe is hitting like one of the west coast wiffleball teams (like the Angels) right now, so i'm not expecting it to be that big of a deal.

[HOT WINGS]

Pinny is dealing over 5 juiced to the over, I think youkilis was expected, ellsbury not.

It opened at pinny at 5.5 -110. Not sure when drop to 5 occurred though, but I am guessing when game line went from 10.5 to 10 at about 1pm eastern.

[God1]

It opened at pinny at 5.5 -110. Not sure when drop to 5 occurred though, but I am guessing when game line went from 10.5 to 10 at about 1pm eastern.

Ellsbury being out has more effect on the Sox ML than the over because of his defense. Redgardless the Sox ML has not moved since 1 pm and even this morning fluctuated 1 cent at most it makes no sense

[BiffTFinancial]

Hate the mets Reds under. Reds at home vs a lefty and Cueto obviously with a one way ticket on regression railroad I'm also on the Tigers under, not sure how solid it is with the market heavily favoring the under but the Adam Dunn factor is probably enough

so long as Adam Dunn is batting clean-up, i'll consider CWS under every day. he hasn't hurt their offense the past two games, which has to be a season-high for him.

[BiffTFinancial]

It opened at pinny at 5.5 -110. Not sure when drop to 5 occurred though, but I am guessing when game line went from 10.5 to 10 at about 1pm eastern.

that's what i thought too. also, the public is on the under, i believe, so the line dropping wasn't a major concern for me. BOL tonight, Hotwings, enjoy wife's b-day.

[HOT WINGS]

that's what i thought too. also, the public is on the under, i believe, so the line dropping wasn't a major concern for me. BOL tonight, Hotwings, enjoy wife's b-day.

Thanks bro Good luck tonight

[BiffTFinancial]

Still sporting something like 2nd best OPS against lefties Niese's SIERA is only .3 lower than his actual ERA and his splits are significantly better against lefties, which is a problem against the reds obviously. Mets bullpen is about average in xFIP but that included K-Rod So how much does impact does that have on the true line? I think something so general would already be priced in

well, the better splits vs lefties will help against Votto and Bruce, and if he can handle them, Phillips becomes the primary obstacle in that lineup.

i would agree that defense is priced into the line, but you could make that argument about most factors (other than your SP batting angle from last week, loved that). the bottomline is that i think that this sets up well for a pitchers duel. i don't blame you for figuring that Cueto's ERA will regress towards his xFIP, but the guy has 11 consecutive QS and 13 of 14 this season. that won't last forever, but i'm not about to try and figure out when it will happen, just hoping it's not tonight.

[BiffTFinancial]

Ellsbury being out has more effect on the Sox ML than the over because of his defense. Redgardless the Sox ML has not moved since 1 pm and even this morning fluctuated 1 cent at most it makes no sense

i like the fact that both BPs were taxed last night and both SPs are pretty bad (and give out a lot of walks). when the Red Sox lineup has been held down at home this season, they've generally put up a nice amount of runs the following night (games vs Verlander and Felix notwithstanding). bottomline: i think that we're going to see a lot more Duffy and Miller tonight than we should, which should help the over. considered game over too but just like Sox TT a little better.

[HOT WINGS]

Ellsbury being out has more effect on the Sox ML than the over because of his defense. Redgardless the Sox ML has not moved since 1 pm and even this morning fluctuated 1 cent at most it makes no sense

I wouldnt play Redsox tonight just based on what line has done. In fact Royals look like a play I might make if I had more time to cap. No play for me though. GL

[LordCC]

Biff Financial

I have always wondered, who is that lady in your display picture?

[BiffTFinancial]

Biff Financial I have always wondered, who is that lady in your display picture?

Amanda Knox, aka Foxy Knoxy

[BigDan]

where did you come out on chc/mil? like the under 8 in this bitch. Dumpster rebounds well and has good numbers against the Crew. Mil 1st gm home after a long trip and off day could easily take a while to get the bats back to Home mode. Narveson is good enough to limit scrubbies and has owned a few of their big bats.

[God1]

under

[BigDan]

under

damn it kills me when we agree. i think that is mainly with sides tho, not sure bout totals but i do know when me and you actually agree on a side it has been a disaster pretty much every time. Luckily it isnt all that frequent of a occurrence .

[BiffTFinancial]

damn it kills me when we agree. i think that is mainly with sides tho, not sure bout totals but i do know when me and you actually agree on a side it has been a disaster pretty much every time. Luckily it isnt all that frequent of a occurrence .

i too like the under. however, i swore off Cubs games for the season in the third of Garza's start in DC a few weeks ago when he lept off the mound to field a slow roller and almost hit some woman down the right field line. i watched it over and over again on replay but was never able to confirm conclusively that his eyes were closed, but i'm pretty sure that they were. that was a particular low point in that 7-run inning. Cubs, ugh.

[BigDan]

forgot about your self imposed scrubbie ban...seems like a sweet spot for a under to me.

[BiffTFinancial]

forgot about your self imposed scrubbie ban...seems like a sweet spot for a under to me.

by all means. i'll definitely be pulling for you, it's just that i've been crossing Cubs game off for so long that i'll have to get back into the mindset to play them, haven't given them any thought. is the roof open in Milwaukee? if it's closed, i'm probably sold on the under.

[greeny]

goodluck today biff! under in that whitesox game yesterday was a push, at least ... shoulda took the white sox, instead of under.. still up 400 on the phillies over tho

[Shark]

good luck on your plays

[BiffTFinancial]

and, as if if on cue, two early unearned runs in Cincy. f joey votto.

[Affirmed3]

Good luck tonight on your plays