Talking Tues bases

BiffTFinancial · 07-26-11, 07:16 AM

also leaning under with the Reds.

Ice House · 07-26-11, 07:22 AM

big dan i like

Tigers
Jays
Yankees
Dodgers
Rangers
Phillies
Reds/mets under 8.5- concern is that hitter park
braves/pirates under 7- concern is that heat and will tommy hanson ever get right again?
philllies/giants under 7- concern is the heat, ballpark, and lincecum might get tattooed vs phillies lefties

looking for a nice 3 or 4 team parlay as I like a lot of stuff on the board today. Not going to touch the Red Sox with Miller on the mound he is unpredictable, Reds ML looks okay but the Mets line-up all the sudden is loaded with good hitters

BigDan · 07-26-11, 07:30 AM

IH i just dont get involved with Jays at succh high odds, i mean they prob win and usually win those gms just hard for me to stomach laying so much on the jays.

honestly i like cws as ive been taking them quite a bit since break as to me they the team on the rise in that div. i know it Verlander but think we see a nice duel with him and peavy, white sox have hit Zoolander fairly well in their careers as well.

gotta love Lad (kershaw is the man). dont think Pavano has a chance on the road even tho id like tex better if they didnt just win by a ton.

not worried about park in atl, pit just plays a under brand of ball, do worry a little about Hanson which is why i may end up just on pit as price is disrespectful as shit.

havnt had time to go thru everything and i gotta get out the door. be back about 3 o'clock central.

Redscot · 07-26-11, 08:21 AM

Not sure about this, but I think Justin Turner might be at SS for the Muts today (he is adequate at 2nd), giving Reyes a day off. If that is the case it could mean Willie Harris at 2nd, a severe compromise for Mets up the middle D, and a curious choice with Niese a major GB pitcher. Just food for thought, something to keep an eye on (if the D does turn out that way tonight) regarding the under.

BigDan · 07-26-11, 08:27 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

Not sure about this, but I think Justin Turner might be at SS for the Muts today (he is adequate at 2nd), giving Reyes a day off. If that is the case it could mean Willie Harris at 2nd, a severe compromise for Mets up the middle D, and a curious choice with Niese a major GB pitcher. Just food for thought, something to keep an eye on (if the D does turn out that way tonight) regarding the under.

good stuff brother...chances are i will only be on reds (especially if this is the case) as im not a huge fan of playing side and total in the same gm anyway.

miyakuza · 07-26-11, 11:52 AM

Bigdan.. Line is dropping on Rays like it did yesterday, seems like a signal from the books to make it SEEM like A's are the play again...

I think Rays are the play today.

I also like SD tonight Dan. Everyone is pounding Saunders on the road, LOL. Line is obviously gonna move dramatically to take the publics money. The line opened higher for SD so they're not gonna make it to +money.

The line movement is crazy today.

RLM on Rockies, Orioles (just a bit), KC, Pitt, Mets, Verlander (notice I didn't say Detroit, lol), Rays, Fla,

BigDan · 07-26-11, 11:59 AM

shit bro, i havnt even looked at the west coast gms yet (well besides lad/rox). i didnt even see what happened in oak last night all i know is i saw score and my under was toast

Oak one of those teams that however i seem to get involved with them it is wrong (well besides unders are usually ok to me)...

gonna go check out zona/sd now but d-bags another team that is on my short list of teams i cant seem to get a good read on for a long period. ill just give you the whole list. d-bags, oak, kc these 3 teams seem to go out of their way to fak me regardless of whether im on/against/or just playing total. Hell last night Davies shuts down the Red Sox and i know playing that big a fav isnt wise but had them rl in a couple 2 team parlays

BigDan · 07-26-11, 12:10 PM

yea bro, quick glance id say Pads are solid. My biggest problem is are they gonna touch down at home and forget how to hit again? Pads been tearing up lefties of late and besides Ludwig lot of good numbers against Saunders in limited abs. So hard to trust these pussies when they are home (strange considering that park should negate most teams power edge over them), they did come home after beating red sox twice and take a series from Bravos so i believe they are capable. will probably join you on this.

miyakuza · 07-26-11, 12:17 PM

SD is on a good hitting streak right now bro, they need to touch base at home at some point to come back in the west and win games right? Lol

freakydave · 07-26-11, 01:12 PM

Going with the phillies rl-the freak is good(understatement) but for the giants to win the offense has to show up & I just don't see it with Vance Worley on the hill.Worley is 3-0 at home with an era of 1.50 & opponents batting a whopping 171 & 5-0 in night games with a 1.40 era & opponents batting 179.I think the Phillies take this one.

BigDan · 07-26-11, 01:17 PM

Originally posted by freakydave

Going with the phillies rl-the freak is good(understatement) but for the giants to win the offense has to show up & I just don't see it with Vance Worley on the hill.Worley is 3-0 at home with an era of 1.50 & opponents batting a whopping 171 & 5-0 in night games with a 1.40 era & opponents batting 179.I think the Phillies take this one.

im more than likely passing on this game but i honestly dont feel Worley is anywhere near as good as the numbers suggest. We will see how he pitches in a game where he isnt getting run support and the pressure is greater. i wanted to say playing the rl is crazy but actually may be the best way to play phils as i doubt sf loses a 1 run game.

syy211 · 07-26-11, 01:19 PM

i like philly under. gl to all.

CTOWNsCAPPIN · 07-26-11, 01:21 PM

Mets and Blue Jays for me.......BOL!

freakydave · 07-26-11, 01:26 PM

Originally posted by BigDan

im more than likely passing on this game but i honestly dont feel Worley is anywhere near as good as the numbers suggest. We will see how he pitches in a game where he isnt getting run support and the pressure is greater. i wanted to say playing the rl is crazy but actually may be the best way to play phils as i doubt sf loses a 1 run game.

He beat boston 2-1 & their offence makes the giants look like crap.

BigDan · 07-26-11, 01:32 PM

Originally posted by freakydave

He beat boston 2-1 & their offence makes the giants look like crap.

reasoning like this will not get you far at this thing we do...

do you happen to remember how much bos was struggling in NL parks at that time?

im not saying the kid is a bum but ppl i trust that know philly tell me they dying for a team to think more of this kid than he is so they can get something out of this hot streak. In their opinions Worley is a serviceable 4 or quality 5th starter in the majors, maybe they are wrong but i trust what they say and that means im laying juice against the world champs ace with a #4 starter. that just doesnt sound appealing to me regardless of the outcome tonight.

Cranium · 07-26-11, 01:33 PM

I like Florida and Nolasco over the Nats...

BigDan · 07-26-11, 01:40 PM

Originally posted by Cranium

I like Florida and Nolasco over the Nats...

honestly brother i didnt even peak at this series. treating it just like chc/hou series, ill let teams like this duke it out and maybe afterwords ill see something in one to fade or follow moving forward. hope you cash it

LockPickMaster · 07-26-11, 01:42 PM

Like the Jays tonight if Morrow is on his game is so much better than Fister. And Seattle may have packed it in. Only bad is if Toronto pen blows the lead and loses like they have this year.

BigDan · 07-26-11, 01:46 PM

think you got who jays playing confused LPM...

blackeyeshamus · 07-26-11, 02:01 PM

absolutely right.
big dan: my friend, I am leaning

LAA 2x TB 2x CIN 2x PIT 1x
and TOR/STL ML parlay: risk 1.00 win 1.45

watcha think about that stuff?
good luck all around!
let's stack 'em and cash 'em!

blackeyeshamus · 07-26-11, 02:01 PM

good luck, gentlemen!

LockPickMaster · 07-26-11, 02:04 PM

Originally posted by BigDan

think you got who jays playing confused LPM...

my bad.
Sabermetrics have Morrow rated a 10 out of 10 and Arrieta a 4. I still like the Jays to crush the O's.
Tor is #17 on power rankings and O's are 29.

BigDan · 07-26-11, 02:08 PM

Originally posted by blackeyeshamus

absolutely right.
big dan: my friend, I am leaning

LAA 2x TB 2x CIN 2x PIT 1x
and TOR/STL ML parlay: risk 1.00 win 1.45

watcha think about that stuff?
good luck all around!
let's stack 'em and cash 'em!

im still trying to think of some creative props for Halo's game.

i actually gotta give props to "iifold"/king/whatever other nms he uses, his write up on Tampa was nice and think i will be on them as well.

im real torn on whether i like cin or the under more in that game, hate when this happens

i think you guys are gonna talk me into the Jays even tho i hate laying a lot with them, im gonna go look what their record like in these spots cause they prob win the majority of them and i always pass.

think im taking the 1.5 with Buccos, hard no to take ml as well cause this price is insane.

gl brother

HOT WINGS · 07-26-11, 02:11 PM

Not sure what the hell I am going to play today, busy at work and no time tonight.(Wifes Bday) haha. Might go with a super square 4 teamer for old times sake. Rangers, Yanks, Jays and Cards. Pays about 4 to 1. Rangers RL seems good as well they should pound the shit out of the Twins again I would think. Why is Lincecum a Dog to Worley? That almost makes me think Philly is the play

BigDan · 07-26-11, 02:12 PM

Originally posted by LockPickMaster

my bad

all good, made my train of thought go off the map tho when i started thinking about Fister while typing about jays

I agree Morrow is a stud but im just not sure he is at the point to get these prices as you cant really trust him as much as a lot of aces. the stuff is there im just never convinced his head is on right.

miyakuza · 07-26-11, 02:16 PM

You should do a parlay with Milwaukee and Rangers.

BigDan · 07-26-11, 02:16 PM

Originally posted by HOT WINGS

Not sure what the hell I am going to play today, busy at work and no time tonight.(Wifes Bday) haha. Might go with a super square 4 teamer for old times sake. Rangers, Yanks, Jays and Cards. Pays about 4 to 1. Rangers RL seems good as well they should pound the shit out of the Twins again I would think. Why is Lincecum a Dog to Worley? That almost makes me think Philly is the play

understand that thinking normally but that isnt the reason here. this is just the MO of the season SF gets disrespected and Phi gets to much respect with lines and public perception.

just do yanks,stl,bos for you old time sake square parlay...

Now go take your wife somewhere nice and leave us degens be!!!!!!!!

CappinTerp · 07-26-11, 02:17 PM

I like the Pitt play but Texas I don't a Lot of times when a team scores a lot of runs the next day they come up empty.Good luck.!

miyakuza · 07-26-11, 02:17 PM

Or Milwaukee and STL.

BiffTFinancial · 07-26-11, 02:22 PM

right now, leaning under in LAA/CLE, HOU/STL, FL/WAS, NYM/CIN. what do you think of the Westbrook under, BigDan? Myers has a decent history against the Cards, and both SPs and BPs have advanced stats lower than their ERAs.

BigDan · 07-26-11, 02:26 PM

Originally posted by CappinTerp

I like the Pitt play but Texas I don't a Lot of times when a team scores a lot of runs the next day they come up empty.Good luck.!

oh i agree brother. that the reason i dont like it all that much, still had to play it but for half of what i did yesterday..couldnt get totally off it but had the sense to cut back as teams that get clubbed like twinks did tend to respond more often than not.

BigDan · 07-26-11, 02:39 PM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

right now, leaning under in LAA/CLE, HOU/STL, FL/WAS, NYM/CIN. what do you think of the Westbrook under, BigDan? Myers has a decent history against the Cards, and both SPs and BPs have advanced stats lower than their ERAs.

i think you have a ump that could be a problem. if Westbrook doesnt get boarder line low strikes he could have problems. Lee has owned him, and in limited abs pence and wallace have also hit Westbrook well. biggest problem tho is westbrook could go out do his job and a few grounders that should be outs or dps turn into baserunners/innings extended. i think you should expect 6+ with 2er from westbrook a unearned run would hurt and is possible. Myers is capable and did a great job against stl last year, that said this is another year and the offense much better 1-9, Cards got to him once and i feel like they are in a little better form than they were then..i couldnt play under in this gm, not sure im high on the over but gun to head that what id play....

BiffTFinancial · 07-26-11, 02:55 PM

Originally posted by BigDan

i think you have a ump that could be a problem. if Westbrook doesnt get boarder line low strikes he could have problems. Lee has owned him, and in limited abs pence and wallace have also hit Westbrook well. biggest problem tho is westbrook could go out do his job and a few grounders that should be outs or dps turn into baserunners/innings extended. i think you should expect 6+ with 2er from westbrook a unearned run would hurt and is possible. Myers is capable and did a great job against stl last year, that said this is another year and the offense much better 1-9, Cards got to him once and i feel like they are in a little better form than they were then..i couldnt play under in this gm, not sure im high on the over but gun to head that what id play....

thanks, pal. i'll just pass. thinking that i'll also pass on FL/WAS under because both SPs were so shaky in their last start. thinking DET/CWS under might be my third play. watched most of that game last night (complete with Hawk Harrelson jeering me Pierzynski's and Konerko's HRs as i pushed on the over), and 5 of the 9 runs were as a result of two innings being extended by errors. the White Sox rarely give runs away and Peavy's xFIP much lower than his ERA, and Verlander should be locked in after having one of his worst outings of the season vs CWS in Detroit two starts ago.

BigDan · 07-26-11, 02:58 PM

yea i like the cws/det under and the cincy under...atl/pit down to 6.5 so gonna leave that alone i think.