Before anyone chimes in with how flawed this is, I know, hear me out first. I think I have found a way to hedge it enough that with enough games it can in fact be profitable. It's the simple betting system of betting on the same game, one on the ML of the underdog and then one bet on the -1.5 RL. Both are positive bets but two things here. You have to place different size bets so that one will offset the other and be almost equal in return after taking out the loss of the other.
Example
Team 1 RL -1.5 (+110) Place $6.00 Will return a profit of 14.73%
Team 2 ML (+158) Place $5.00 Will return a profit of 12.70%
The profits listed above are inluding the loss from the other bet.
The second part is you need to be able to spread this method across a minimum of 10-15 games in each day you do it. For right now I'm using minimum bets (around $5-6 per bet per game so $10-11 total, caries based on percentage returns) but there's no reason to not increase it to maximums as it becomes profitable. I expect to lose 1-2 of those games which is fine, the other 13-14 will more than cover and profit.
The major downside to this system as everyone knows is that around 25% of games are decided by one run, so with this it leaves 12.5% risk involved. This may or may not be accurate as the RL winner may be greater or less than 12.5%, just using the half for now.
I'm applying this to baseball in this example but I see no reason it can't be applied to any other sport so long as there are no draw oppurtunities.
I've already been doing this for a while with good results, like 100% gain in 2 days. Of course doing one game at a time the inevitable occured where I got a loss and took a hit. Tonight will be the first time on this scale so I'm expecting minimal returns but more positive than negative.
My thinking is if you can reduce your risk and exposure and trade that for a little less profit why not. If you can make 5% a day every day that's some sweet f'ing returns.
5% per day
$100 starting with 5% return per day including previous day's amount equals $5,163,032,531.22 in 365 days. I'll be happy with 50k in a year though.
Let's hear your thoughts... I feel like I'm 15 again waiting to be reprimanded for my complete and utter stupidity.
Example
Team 1 RL -1.5 (+110) Place $6.00 Will return a profit of 14.73%
Team 2 ML (+158) Place $5.00 Will return a profit of 12.70%
The profits listed above are inluding the loss from the other bet.
The second part is you need to be able to spread this method across a minimum of 10-15 games in each day you do it. For right now I'm using minimum bets (around $5-6 per bet per game so $10-11 total, caries based on percentage returns) but there's no reason to not increase it to maximums as it becomes profitable. I expect to lose 1-2 of those games which is fine, the other 13-14 will more than cover and profit.
The major downside to this system as everyone knows is that around 25% of games are decided by one run, so with this it leaves 12.5% risk involved. This may or may not be accurate as the RL winner may be greater or less than 12.5%, just using the half for now.
I'm applying this to baseball in this example but I see no reason it can't be applied to any other sport so long as there are no draw oppurtunities.
I've already been doing this for a while with good results, like 100% gain in 2 days. Of course doing one game at a time the inevitable occured where I got a loss and took a hit. Tonight will be the first time on this scale so I'm expecting minimal returns but more positive than negative.
My thinking is if you can reduce your risk and exposure and trade that for a little less profit why not. If you can make 5% a day every day that's some sweet f'ing returns.
5% per day
$100 starting with 5% return per day including previous day's amount equals $5,163,032,531.22 in 365 days. I'll be happy with 50k in a year though.
Let's hear your thoughts... I feel like I'm 15 again waiting to be reprimanded for my complete and utter stupidity.
....haha....illl wait and see after that happens...
