FYI - Value on Padres ML (Sat 7/23/11)

[Love The Action]

I spotted some nice value on the Padres tomorrow. Good luck.

Padres ML (+129)

Mat Latos v. Kyle Kendricks. I believe this is way too much value to pass up for this pitching matchup. I predict that by gametime, "sharps" will have this closing price down to +120 or less. Many people might just look at Kendrick's ERA in the mid 3's and his WHIP at 1.3 and figure he is a solid pitcher that should dominate the weak-hitting Padres. However, if you look behind the standard stats, what you will find is a HUGE disparity in starting pitching. Latos is having an excellent, if not unlucky, season. Whereas, Kendrick is not pitching well, but the Phillies' success is doing a good job of hiding his mistakes. First, Latos has the #9 tERA in the league at 2.94, compared to Kendrick's 4.86 which is in the bottom quarter of the league. Latos' FIP is 3.34, xFIP is 3.75 and SIERRA is 3.66, all ranked no worse than top 60; while Kendrick's FIP, xFIP and SIERRA are in the mid to high 4's and all rank in the bottom third of the league. Plus, when you look at the luck factor, Kendrick has a horseshoe up his ass, while Latos has been fairly unlucky despite his ability to strike people out. Latos has a BABIP and LOB% of .309 and 68.7%, while Kendrick has .271 and 75.4% respectively. This is where we find our value in this play. Everyone is going to look at the ERA and WHIPs of these two players and see that Kendrick (3.34 ERA) has slightly better numbers than Latos (4.02 ERA). However, when you go beyond the smoke and mirrors of standard stats, you see that Kendrick (i) has been getting lucky as evidenced by his low BABIP/high LOB% and (ii) is due for a big regression. However, if you look at Latos' .309 BABIP and 68.7 LOB%, it is clear that (i) he has a been a bit unlucky and (ii) he should start to catch more breaks as the year progresses. You can find more evidence of an upcoming Latos hot streak if you look at his rare ability to get strikeouts. Generally, solid strikeout pitchers are the only type of pitcher that can sustain low BABIP's and high LOB% throughout the season because of their ability to get out of jams. However, even though he is a great strike out pitcher, Latos is still carrying an unlucky BABIP and LOB%. I have a feeling that luck is about to change as evidenced by Latos' K/9 of 8.22 and K% of 21.4% (both top 20 MLB). Kendrick on the other hand is rocking a 3.61 K9 and a 9.5% K%, which is pathetic. All of these numbers are the reason we have huge value on Latos in this spot. I expect most people to bet the Phillies thinking the pitching matchup is no worse than even, while we know that we have a huge advantage with Latos at +129. The clincher for this play is the individual matchups between the Phillies hitters and Latos. Lifetime, the Phillies hitters that will be facing Latos tomorrow are hitting .229 in 53 at bats, with Latos' career ERA against Philly at 3.86. Compare that to Kendrick and we see that he has a 5.91 lifetime ERA against the Padres and poor results overall. The Padres have a top 3 MLB bullpen and are ranked top 12 in defense, whereas the Phillies are ranked around 20th in both categories. Even though the Phillies have a slightly better offense, the Padres have been hitting well lately; especially, Will Veneble in the leadoff spot who has been a huge spark-plug in leading the Padres to their sweep of the Marlins coming into this series. We saw the Padres bats limited by Hamels on Friday, but on Saturday I think the Padres score at least 4 runs to win the game 4-2 against the Phillies in Philly. I don't bet against top 10 MLB teams often, but you can beat them if you pick your spots. I think this spot presents some hidden value. If I see the price go up from the "public" (whoever that is these days) pound Philly, I may add another .25x-.50x to this play, whereas if I see the price go down from RLM, I may add a little more. I believe we have a better than 50% chance of cashing this play, and at +129, this is almost a must play for that value. I'm rolling with the Padres ML for 1.25x in this spot and may add to it tomorrow. Good luck.

[pacocn]

I couldn't agree more, i also expect Kyle Blanks
to do so damage

[Love The Action]

I couldn't agree more, i also expect Kyle Blanks
to do so damage

Let's cash it Paco

[blackeyeshamus]

very insightful, my friend.
solid play. right behind you!
good luck all around!

[Love The Action]

very insightful, my friend.
solid play. right behind you!
good luck all around!

[God1]

That's great and all but what is leading to think but what makes you think latos and kendrick aren't being priced appropriately? The books aren't oblivious to Latos' or Kendrick's peripherals. This matchup is only pricing the Phillies as 10 cents better(-120 for the home team assumes a dead even matchup). Phillies are a significantly better offense. What should the price be and why?

Kendrick has also seen an increase in velocity on his cutter and his BABIP was .284 for the full season last year. What makes you so sure he will regress to the BABIP league avg? Which I believe this year is around .285 so him being .271 is not far off. Also cut fastballs have a BABIP of .275 historically so he should by nature have a better than league avg BABIP

From last year, Kendrick has improved his GB rate, swing strike %, swing % at pitches outside the strike zone, 1st strike %, and cut fastball velocity. You still think that adds up to being just as bad as he was last year? These all point to coming improvements in K and walk rate. You can't just look at xFIP and assume ERA will regress to xFIP. There is variance within xFIP as we are looking at only 60 IP. His peripherals to K rate and walk rate(listed above) indicate that his xFIP will improve as his K and walk rate improve. So while you are right that his ERA has some regressing to do, his xFIP has also some regressing of its own to do but in the opposite direction

Also, tERA has been proven to be an inferior predictor of future performance compared to xFIP and SIERA so don't even put it in the conversation

[pacocn]

Love the action I think the Padres offense is comparable to
the Phillies offense when they are hitting off Kendrick and the
Phillies are hitting off Latos. I think the line should be about even
imho. I will gladly risk 1 unit to win 129. To me it is a strong play.

[Love The Action]

That's great and all but what is leading to think but what makes you think latos and kendrick aren't being priced appropriately? The books aren't oblivious to Latos' or Kendrick's peripherals. This matchup is only pricing the Phillies as 10 cents better(-120 for the home team assumes a dead even matchup). Phillies are a significantly better offense. What should the price be and why?

I understand your importance upon pricing and you answered your own question. I believe we are getting at least 10 cents in value on this play at the opening number. The books are providing the Padres at a better price at the opening number in order to invite some early action on the Padres to even out the inevitable action they will get on the Phillies tomorrow. Remember, public perception is a vital factor in the books' pricing metrics. As you know, the books set the price to bring in even action on both sides. Consequently, this is why we find the value in this play. Because of the superiority in pitching of Latos over Kendrick, combined with the recent hot bats of the Padres, we should see pricing more correlative to a "dead even" matchup (in my opinion). However, we are getting 10 cents of value at this opening number above a "dead even" price. I also stated that I expect that price to drop throughout the day tomorrow (down to +120 or lower), despite most of the action coming in on Philly. Consequently, by locking in the Padres now, you are ensuring yourself an additional 10 cents of value on an otherwise even matchup and will beat the closer.

What is your thinking? Are you making a play on Kendrick and the Phils?

[God1]

Love the action I think the Padres offense is comparable to
the Phillies offense when they are hitting off Kendrick and the
Phillies are hitting off Latos. I think the line should be about even
imho. I will gladly risk 1 unit to win 129. To me it is a strong play.

this is ludicrous, does anyone realize how bad the lefty/righty splits are the padres? Worst in the league by a decent margin against righties and middle of the pack vs lefties. Phillies are also significantly better against righties

[Love The Action]

That's great and all but what is leading to think but what makes you think latos and kendrick aren't being priced appropriately? The books aren't oblivious to Latos' or Kendrick's peripherals. This matchup is only pricing the Phillies as 10 cents better(-120 for the home team assumes a dead even matchup). Phillies are a significantly better offense. What should the price be and why?

Kendrick has also seen an increase in velocity on his cutter and his BABIP was .284 for the full season last year. What makes you so sure he will regress to the BABIP league avg? Which I believe this year is around .285 so him being .271 is not far off. Also cut fastballs have a BABIP of .275 historically so he should by nature have a better than league avg BABIP

From last year, Kendrick has improved his GB rate, swing strike %, swing % at pitches outside the strike zone, 1st strike %, and cut fastball velocity. You still think that adds up to being just as bad as he was last year? These all point to coming improvements in K and walk rate. You can't just look at xFIP and assume ERA will regress to xFIP. There is variance within xFIP as we are looking at only 60 IP. His peripherals to K rate and walk rate(listed above) indicate that his xFIP will improve as his K and walk rate improve. So while you are right that his ERA has some regressing to do, his xFIP has also some regressing of its own to do but in the opposite direction

Also, tERA has been proven to be an inferior predictor of future performance compared to xFIP and SIERA so don't even put it in the conversation

I would you rather not edit previous posts and add new thoughts. Just use the quote function so I may respond point by point.

You allege Kendrick has an increase in velocity on his cutter, but I see no citation or other stat to back that statement up.

I did not cite to any stats of Kendrick from 2010, only from his current 2011 performances. Consequently, I do not know why you are asking about my opinion of Kendrick from last season.

Finally, I cited to both players' xFIP and SIERA as well as tERA. As I stated in my writeup, Latos has a 3.66 SIERA and xFIP of 3.75, compared to Kendrick's xFIP and SIERA in the high 4's.

So, again I will ask, are you backing Kendrick tomorrow?

[God1]

The books are providing the Padres at a better price at the opening number in order to invite some early action on the Padres to even out the inevitable action they will get on the Phillies tomorrow.

This happens in nearly every boston and yankees game too that doesn't make the other side a profitable bet

Remember, public perception is a vital factor in the books' pricing metrics. As you know, the books set the price to bring in even action on both sides.

Yes but you are implying a disparaging connotation on the effectiveness of the closing line when saying that. The closing line is as efficient as it comes

Because of the superiority in pitching of Latos over Kendrick, combined with the recent hot bats of the Padres, we should see pricing more correlative to a "dead even" matchup (in my opinion).

You cannot possibly get colder than the Padres against right handers, check out the numbers

What is your thinking? Are you making a play on Kendrick and the Phils?

No, I have no idea what the right side is if there is even one. At first glance the opener looked like a good price on the Padres and I guess I was right because it got down 5 cents already but at this point I'll be passing. You are vastly underestimating how bad the Padres are vs lefties and how much better the Phillies are vs righties. These two teams have huge platoon splits its not nearly as simple as just comparing the pitchers

[God1]

Kendrick's FIP vs righties is 3.18 and his xFIP is 3.69. That should tell you all you need to know. I think the Padres have 2 lefties in their lineup

[God1]

You allege Kendrick has an increase in velocity on his cutter, but I see no citation or other stat to back that statement up.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6230&position=P

Finally, I cited to both players' xFIP and SIERA as well as tERA. As I stated in my writeup, Latos has a 3.66 SIERA and xFIP of 3.75, compared to Kendrick's xFIP and SIERA in the high 4's.

Why cite Kendrick's full xFIP when the padres trot out only 2 lefties in their lineup? Kendrick's xFIP is 6+ against lefties and a Latos-like 3.68 against righties. And btw those 2 lefties they do have are garbage and terrible against righties as well

So, again I will ask, are you backing Kendrick tomorrow?

Nope because while I can anaylze a game pretty well at a level beyond the surface, I have no idea how to price all those elements and thus will not be able to beat the juice

[Love The Action]

No, I have no idea what the right side is if there is even one. At first glance the opener looked like a good price on the Padres and I guess I was right because it got down 5 cents already but at this point I'll be passing. You are vastly underestimating how bad the Padres are vs lefties and how much better the Phillies are vs righties. These two teams have huge platoon splits its not nearly as simple as just comparing the pitchers

Well, Kendrick is a right handed pitcher, so I really don't care how bad the Padres are versus lefties. I find it difficult to believe you know that Kendrick increased his velocity on his cutter -- without providing any citation to back up that allegation -- and don't even know that he is right handed as opposed to left handed.

Good luck on your plays.

[God1]

Let me throw you some more numbers. Padres dead last in the league against righties. This is how the lefties in their lineup fare against righties: Rizzo .514 OPS, Veneable .687 OPS, Kyle Phillips .526 OPS.....their switch hitters against righties: Headley .760 OPS(.100 lower than against lefties), Orlando Hudson .634 OPS

[Love The Action]

This happens in nearly every boston and yankees game too that doesn't make the other side a profitable bet

OK, what's your point. Are you saying that Boston and the Yankees are always the play. Your statement is conclusory and pointless.

Yes but you are implying a disparaging connotation on the effectiveness of the closing line when saying that. The closing line is as efficient as it comes

Correct. The closing line is the most efficient price. I am getting a better price than the most efficient price. Hence the value. I find it hard to believe you don't get this, but I find it very easy to believe that you like to to make "smart" sounding statements, with no real thought behind them.

You cannot possibly get colder than the Padres against right handers, check out the numbers

On the season perhaps, but not lately. Check the stats in the last five games. Momentum builds and even poor hitting teams can put it together for little mini runs. I believe the Padres are on such a run (see the Marlins series) and can easily beat up Kendricks.

[God1]

Well, Kendrick is a right handed pitcher, so I really don't care how bad the Padres are versus lefties.

I meant righties that was a typo.

I find it difficult to believe you know that Kendrick increased his velocity on his cutter -- without providing any citation to back up that allegation -- and don't even know that he is right handed as opposed to left handed.

i gave you the link that shows a 1 MPH increase on his cutter. i said righty in every other post, that one above was a typo

[God1]

Tell me again why are you citing Kendrick's overall xFIP as opposed to his xFIP vs righties? Kendrick's xFIP against righties is better than Latos' overall xFIP. Padres run out 7 righties and the two lefties they come with are garbage against right handers

[God1]

On the season perhaps, but not lately. Check the stats in the last five games.

you have a full season of the padres stinking it up as the WORST in the league vs righties and you are trying to tell me about 5 games. our discussion really looked like it had something until this point

[Love The Action]

Let me throw you some more numbers. Padres dead last in the league against righties. This is how the lefties in their lineup fare against righties: Rizzo .514 OPS, Veneable .687 OPS, Kyle Phillips .526 OPS.....their switch hitters against righties: Headley .760 OPS(.100 lower than against lefties), Orlando Hudson .634 OPS

That response is irrelevant to the reasons why I made the play and the reasons I cited in my writeup. I never cited to the Padres season long hitting, rather, I cited to the recent hot streak of offensive production from the Padres which will allow them to overcome a weak starting pitcher such as Kendrick. Again, reading is a skill. The offensive production I expect out of the Padres tomorrow is based upon (1) the Padres recent offensive success in their last 5 games, (2) the momentum resulting therefrom and (3) the poor results put forth by Kendrick throughout this season.

[God1]

(3) the poor results put forth by Kendrick throughout this season.

Are you blind? His xFIP is 3.68 vs right handed batters. The Padres have 7 of them. How is that poor results?

The numbers I gave you was just showing how bad the the Padres' lefties and switch hitters are against righties as well

[Love The Action]

you have a full season of the padres stinking it up as the WORST in the league vs righties and you are trying to tell me about 5 games. our discussion really looked like it had something until this point

I can put laughy guys in my posts too, but it really means nothing.

I do believe that teams can get collective momentum from two, three, four games in a row of hitting. I played baseball through college and teams definitely get hot offensively as a whole and build momentum that carries over from game to game. Obviously, you never played the sport or you would not laugh at such a concept.

[God1]

Tell me again why are you citing Kendrick's overall xFIP as opposed to his xFIP vs righties? Kendrick's xFIP against righties is better than Latos' overall xFIP.

[God1]

Mariners have scored 15 runs in their last 3 games, you going to hop on that offensive juggernaut too?

[Love The Action]

Mariners have scored 15 runs in their last 3 games, you going to hop on that offensive juggernaut too?

Ok...good point when discussing a Padres/Phillies game.

[God1]

Ok...good point when discussing a Padres/Phillies game.

I was mocking your idea of emphasizing the past few games while neglecting an entire season's worth of performance.

let's try again:

Tell me again why are you citing Kendrick's overall xFIP as opposed to his xFIP vs righties? Kendrick's xFIP against righties is better than Latos' overall xFIP.

and...

(3) the poor results put forth by Kendrick throughout this season.

Are you blind? His xFIP is 3.68 vs right handed batters. The Padres have 7 of them. How is that poor results?

[Love The Action]

Tell me again why are you citing Kendrick's overall xFIP as opposed to his xFIP vs righties? Kendrick's xFIP against righties is better than Latos' overall xFIP.

Solid point, however, not enough to put the play in jeopardy of losing its value.

Dude, I can go through every single play on the board -- every single play you have ever locked in your whole life -- and pick it apart to find something wrong with it. However, in capping, you have to add all the factors together and go with the play with the most amount of metrics which provide value. Those are generally the best plays. I believe, as of right now, this play has the most value on tomorrow's board. Nothing you have typed has put that position in jeopardy.

By the way, if you would like to post your plays, I would be happy to go through them for you and point out the two or three things that oppose your viewpoint. Just let me know. Perhaps you could use the extra set of eyes going over your decisions.

[God1]

Dude, I can go through every single play on the board -- every single play you have ever locked in your whole life -- and pick it apart to find something wrong with it.

I picked apart the heart of your argument: that kendrick sucks. He only sucks balls against lefties. He's actually very good against righties, which is most of what the Padres have.

Nothing you have typed has put that position in jeopardy.

Wasn't Kendrick half your argument? I've blown that out of the water. His xFIP for all intents and purposes vs the Padres lineup is a very solid 3.68 not the high 4s you are citing. By this measure Kendrick's xFIP is lower than Latos' that blows up most of what you liked about this bet

By the way, if you would like to post your plays, I would be happy to go through them for you and point out the two or three things that oppose your viewpoint. Just let me know. Perhaps you could use the extra set of eyes going over your decisions.

I would love this but sorry I don't post any plays. Also, you can't seem to admit that your entire original premise for this bet was incorrect so I don't know how productive it would be to have further dicussions

[God1]

btw, I'm not saying the Padres are a bad bet, just that your reasons for betting the padres are totally bogus

[Love The Action]

I picked apart the heart of your argument: that kendrick sucks. He only sucks balls against lefties. He's actually very good against righties, which is most of what the Padres have.

Hardly...you merely pointed out that Kendrick performs better against righties than lefties. The heart of my argument is that there is value in the play. In fact, you have not picked apart anything .

Wasn't Kendrick half your argument? I've blown that out of the water. His xFIP for all intents and purposes vs the Padres lineup is a very solid 3.68 not the high 4s you are citing. By this measure Kendrick's xFIP is lower than Latos' that blows up most of what you liked about this bet

I disagree; the play is not based based solely on xFIP. As I stated -- and I again mention reading is a skill -- Latos' superior stats in almost every conceivable statistical category (one of the most important being K%) and the value created thereby is the basis for the play.

I would love this but sorry I don't post any plays. Also, you can't seem to admit that your entire original premise for this bet was incorrect so I don't know how productive it would be to have further dicussions

I would say it would be very unproductive. I can spot a personality type like yours from a mile away. You are an antagonist -- albeit a fairly bright (for these forums) antagonist -- that is all you are and will ever be. You like to disagree for the sake of disagreement. That's cool. It's people like you that keep me gainfully employed.

I would, however, question why you are even on this forum if you don't post plays, since that is the very point of being here. In addition, I would also question whether you make plays yourself or whether you are too intimidated by the "vig" as you stated earlier.

[Love The Action]

btw, I'm not saying the Padres are a bad bet, just that your reasons for betting the padres are totally bogus

Wrong again, sir. Your attempts at picking apart the play were feeble, because they were based solely on xFIP. The fact of the matter is the play has value. You cannot deny that when the market has already dropped the price of the Padres down below +129. In addition, the reasons behind the play are numerous and not based solely on xFIP.

So, I have to ask, do you base all your plays solely on xFIP? If so, perhaps you should expand your frame of reference. Oh wait, silly question, when it is alleged that you don't even invest in sports because you expressly stated that YOU cannot beat the juice.

[moses27]

phillies are goin to romp

[Love The Action]

phillies are goin to romp

Based on what?

[A's Fan]

based on what moses told us

[Romanianbornwin]

That is one epic explanation. I hope you win just because of the time spent writing that monster.