Wednesday

[BiffTFinancial]

3* Reds/Pirates under 7 (+102)
3* Red Sox/O's over 10.5 (-115)
3* Tribe/Twins under 8.5 (-109)
3* Pads/Marlins under 7 (-101)

BOL to all today.

[korbal29]

boston + the over and adding your picks for a small amount parlay

[BiffTFinancial]

boston + the over and adding your picks for a small amount parlay

BOL to us. your hitting that parlay would make me very happy indeed.

[Romanianbornwin]

On the Red/Pirates under and Padres/Marlins already.....What do you think about the Rangers vs. Angels under?

[BiffTFinancial]

leaving soon for goff outing, so doubt i'll be adding any more picks today. the only thing that i might add is the Brewers/Dbacks under tonight. riding with guy today who went to school with Brewers SP Chris Narveson, going to pick his brain about how Narveson will fare in Chase after watching home run derby there. for some reason, i'm afraid he might implode and blow the under by himself.

[BiffTFinancial]

On the Red/Pirates under and Padres/Marlins already.....What do you think about the Rangers vs. Angels under?

i'm not crazy about that one, but didn't spend much time on it. Texas has hit Haren pretty well, but Haren has been awesome at home this year. BOL whatever you decide.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

3* White Sox/Royals under 8.5 (-115)

[BiffTFinancial]

1-3 -6.75u start. bah.

[kcburg]

Thoughts on the Brewers over after talking to your buddy...

[bradleysnyder]

That marlins play git blasted..... 10-0 in the 2nd inning. Might as well cancel the game

[panik]

Goodluck to you. I have the Yankees today against the Rays

[BiffTFinancial]

That marlins play git blasted..... 10-0 in the 2nd inning. Might as well cancel the game

that game was horrendous. i suppose at least it didn't take long....Nolasco was straight shit, i guess that explained the late movement on the over.

[BiffTFinancial]

Thoughts on the Brewers over after talking to your buddy...

i still like it but not sure yet if i'm going to play it. i need to catch my breath after that Marlins debacle. the conversation didn't last long. i said "i'm thinking about the under with your boy Narveson in Arizona tonight, but i'm a little concerned that he might implode at the park where they just held the home run derby." he said, "yeah, that would be my concern." i like that the Brewers are bad on the road, Saunders is good, Dbacks aren't good against lefties, solid under ump. i don't like the park and the fact that Narveson's WHIP in his last three starts is almost 2 and his ERA on the road this season is over 5.50.

[Cannon]

Do you keep a record of your plays? I never see one.

[God1]

i don't like the park and the fact that Narveson's WHIP in his last three starts is almost 2 and his ERA on the road this season is over 5.50.

I still don't understand, why are you even looking at ERA? You know about the other metrics

[BiffTFinancial]

I still don't understand, why are you even looking at ERA? You know about the other metrics

my point is that i don't trust Narveson because he has been shelled on the road, and he has. while the fact that his xFIP is almost a run lower might mean that he should have a lower ERA in the future, i just don't trust him to pitch well tonight. a road ERA of 5.59 might not mean that his road ERA for today should be 5.59, but it does mean that he hasn't been reliable on the road (and while some of that might be attributable to luck, i think that a larger portion is attributable to the fact that he's a shaky road pitcher).

[God1]

my point is that i don't trust Narveson because he has been shelled on the road, and he has.

that just not true....xFIP of 3.34 at home and 3.79 on the road

while the fact that his xFIP is almost a run lower might mean that he should have a lower ERA in the future, i just don't trust him to pitch well tonight. a road ERA of 5.59 might not mean that his road ERA for today should be 5.59, but it does mean that he hasn't been reliable on the road (and while some of that might be attributable to luck, i think that a larger portion is attributable to the fact that he's a shaky road pitcher).

just tell me why you even use such a luck laden metric as ERA when there are significantly more accurate predictors you are aware of. ERA should not even be in your vocabulary and this is a prime example why. You think Narveson gets shelled on the road because you were looking at his ERA but if you went by his road xFIP you'd see he is not much worse than home and still an above average pitcher on the road

[BiffTFinancial]

Do you keep a record of your plays? I never see one.

heading into today, i am 199-172-29 for +35.96u on the season.

obviously, those numbers will be worse after today.

[BiffTFinancial]

that just not true....xFIP of 3.34 at home and 3.79 on the road just tell me why you even use such a luck laden metric as ERA when there are significantly more accurate predictors you are aware of. ERA should not even be in your vocabulary and this is a prime example why. You think Narveson gets shelled on the road because you were looking at his ERA but if you went by his road xFIP you'd see he is not much worse than home and still an above average pitcher on the road

well, based upon the way that the game is going so far, your point is well-taken. the formula that i use said that this game was a good under candidate. however, when i looked at the breakdowns for his road starts this season, it's hard to deny that he's been money in the bank for allowing 3-4 runs per road outing, period. and ERA aside, his WHIP sucks and has been even worse recently, and that is not nearly as luck-laden a measure.

one thing: didn't you say once that you don't use xFIP for totals, only sides?

[God1]

his WHIP sucks and has been even worse recently, and that is not nearly as luck-laden a measure.

I would completely disagree because a majority of WHIP is dependent on luck-heavy BABIP

one thing: didn't you say once that you don't use xFIP for totals, only sides?

my totals bets are purely based on market dynamics and have nothing to do with predicting the game. the majority of the market is ignorant of xFIP, therefore i don't bother with it

for sides it can be useful to see if the market is overvaluing or undervaluing a pitcher. this could be applicable for totals too but the subset of totals i bet are very specific and alot of the big xFIP/ERA discrepancies wouldn't even be on the radar to begin with. i usually only bet totals with very bad starting pitching or pitchers with high ERAs so it's almost a lock already their xFIP is going to be better than their ERA appears

[BiffTFinancial]

I would completely disagree because a majority of WHIP is dependent on luck-heavy BABIP my totals bets are purely based on market dynamics and have nothing to do with predicting the game. the majority of the market is ignorant of xFIP, therefore i don't bother with it for sides it can be useful to see if the market is overvaluing or undervaluing a pitcher. this could be applicable for totals too but the subset of totals i bet are very specific and alot of the big xFIP/ERA discrepancies wouldn't even be on the radar to begin with. i usually only bet totals with very bad starting pitching or pitchers with high ERAs so it's almost a lock already their xFIP is going to be better than their ERA appears

that's very interesting. i agree with the idea that some of the best total opportunities are where there is a big gap between xFIP and ERA.

[God1]

that's very interesting. i agree with the idea that some of the best total opportunities are where there is a big gap between xFIP and ERA.

yea there's probably opportunity with some of the bigger xFIP discrepancies like Jurrjens, Morrow, and Beckett but that is beyond my area of proven methods

[BiffTFinancial]

2-3 -3.69u on the day (earlier update was off a little; forgot that CIN/PIT was +102). so far so good on the MIL/AZ under, looking like that could have made this a minus-the-juice day.

[God1]

fangraphs now has SIERA thank god that is going to save me a ton of time

[God1]

I'm as confused by the toronto line as I've ever been. Pinnacle opened the morrow/vargas today at -149 and it closed at -177. They open tomorrow's romero/fister line at -170 its now at =177. How is it possible the romero/fister matchup is more advantageous for toronto? Is Romero plus his being a lefty(sea worse against lefties but NOTHING compared to toronto's lefty/righty difference) worth THAT much more than Morrow? The difference between vargas and fister seeing that vargas is a lefty and fister is a slightly better pitcher has got to be at least 15-20 cents. I wish I could just run an arbitrage between those two matchups

Any kind of explanation?

[BiffTFinancial]

I'm as confused by the toronto line as I've ever been. Pinnacle opened the morrow/vargas today at -149 and it closed at -177. They open tomorrow's romero/fister line at -170 its now at =177. How is it possible the romero/fister matchup is more advantageous for toronto? Is Romero plus his being a lefty(sea worse against lefties but NOTHING compared to toronto's lefty/righty difference) worth THAT much more than Morrow? The difference between vargas and fister seeing that vargas is a lefty and fister is a slightly better pitcher has got to be at least 15-20 cents. I wish I could just run an arbitrage between those two matchups Any kind of explanation?

i can't explain it, but then again, i don't play a lot of sides. my initial reaction is that it's Romero's name value. also, the fact that they are expecting record temps in Toronto and that the dome will be closed could make this more of a pitchers duel. that said, i also think that the Jays will be mentioned by a lot of people as a "trap" game. i don't think that there's such thing as a trap going against a team that has lost 11 in a row.