give it time...don't bet too early you will get burned. If it gets steamed back there is a reason for it.
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Comment -
IMO, small movements are insignificant and should probably be ignored. After all a move of only three or four cents can just represent a normal fluctuation of a betting pattern and not signify any large action. l The premise of this is to attempt to capture a game or games that are being singled out by a sharp syndicate or a guy like Billy W. And keep in mind that these guys lose too. Having said this I have had more than a few days when I won every game that had a significant movement and on occasion that was 4 or more games. Another question might be what can be called a significant movement. That is your decision and when making this decision I think you should keep in mind not only the amount of the movement but also the percentage of that movement. Meaning a movement of twenty cents from 125 to 145 might be more or less significant than a twenty cent movement from 200 to 220. IMO it would be more. Also, obviously the timing of the movement should also be considered and if that movement was steady from opening line or if it changed favoring one side and then another.
Experiment on a large sample before you get very excited about this theory. And don't forget to apply it also in foot and baskets, you might even find more success with those sports.
And good luck.Comment -
Whenever I bet, Bookmaker moves the line by 5 cents. Any 5 cent movement you see at bookmaker is probably me.Comment -
Dante, good points.Comment -
Top are so far
Balt 16 cents
Fla 14 cents
NYY 19 cents
Phil not a top play now
Clev #2 not a top plat now
Colo 17 cents
Ariz 12 centsComment -
Top Plays
Balt 22 cents closing line
Fla 22 cents closing line
NYY 21 cents closing line
Phil 10 cents closing line
Clev 12 cents closing line
Colo 20 cents closing line
Pitt 6 cents
CWS 5 cents
Still not started
Ariz 7 cents
LAD 1 cent big move starting here.
All info available at SBR lines.
Anything 10 cents and above is a top play
5 cents to 9 cents a medium. I noticed the dogs do well here when a play.Comment -
Hope this does not get smoked tonight.Comment -
good stuff, will u be posting this all the time.. defintely worth a lookComment -
I will try or you can. Info is in the sbr lines.Comment -
what book are you using to compare with?
not really sure how it works
so for
dodgers they opened at +115 and moved to +121 6 cent move??
playing giants who moved -135 to -131 4 cent move correct?Comment -
using bookmakerComment -
Top Plays
Balt 22 cents closing line
Fla 22 cents closing line
NYY 21 cents closing line
Phil 10 cents closing line
Clev 12 cents closing line
Colo 20 cents closing line
Pitt 6 cents
CWS 5 cents
Ariz 7 cents
LAD 4 cents
All info available at SBR lines.
Anything 10 cents and above is a top play
5 cents to 9 cents a medium. I noticed the dogs do well here when a playComment -
Example Mets opened at -145 and closed at -123 so that is a 22 cent move to Florida. I have been halfass following this so while it is winning might as well play it till it has a bad week.Comment -
gotcha so basically the team the line gets worse for is the play
gotcha. be checking this out.. good findComment -
Plays
Balt 22 cents closing line (Loser)
Fla 22 cents closing line (Winner)
NYY 21 cents closing line (Winner)
Phil 10 cents closing line (Loser)
Clev 12 cents closing line (Winner)
Colo 20 cents closing line (Loser)
Pitt 6 cents (Winner)
CWS 5 cents (Winner)
Ariz 7 cents (Winner)
Not a play
LAD 4 cents
All info available at SBR lines.
Anything 10 cents and above is a top play
5 cents to 9 cents a medium. I noticed the dogs do well here when a playComment -
Not a basher, but I'm extremely surprised noone has brought this point up... What you are doing is just following steam, this can be very profitable for sure since you are putting your money where the major players or Smart money is... The only problem is this, you are giving yourself the worst possible line on the game... IN the long run, this hurt and hurts real bad... EXample the sharps that are getting the lines at say 20 cents better then you every time, so for arguments sake we will say that all the lines were -110 I know many of them will be dogs but this is just to make it simple for everyone... Lets say avg. steam was 20cents and you took 100 games going an amazing 65%, so as you know the sharps that get the lines at -110 are now 65X1-35X1.1=26.5 units ahead. with 1 unit plays... Now lets see where we are at following the steam getting the worse line... 65X1-35X1.3=24.5... So what may not seem like much is giving up 2 for every 100 plays and thats when your hitting 65%, the lower the percentage the bigger the gap... This 8% change is huge to give up in the long run and you will see it catch up with you...
In closing, you are on to something and following these plays can be very profitable in short term, just be very careful because when it goes bad it goes really bad and will eat up your profits in a hurry and because your getting poor value, it will be giving back much faster then the SHarp money your follwoing.Comment -
I am betting the plays in my thread I am up about 120 units since I started posting three weeks ago. When the steam matches my plays it is doing really well. I play my games the night before. When the steam agrees I try to increase my wager.Comment -
I said I will follow it till I have a bad week what else can I do?Comment -
I started posting these Saturday since then it has gone
Top Plays
15-4
Medium Plays
9-2
Total
24-6
This is much better than tailing some of you guys.Comment -
Cannon like I said in shortterm it should do well for you... Just be careful, very good idea to increase when it matches your play... When you follow something like this blindly you will see the extremely hot and cold streaks it will go on.. You could go 40-15, then 10-30, just follow it while its hot and be prepared to dump it when it goes bad.Originally posted by CannonComment -
Also what you picked up on about dogs doing well, is good find... Remember the books only clean up when favorites lose, espically big favorites.Comment -
yo nick cannon.....this wont work. Just play my plays and count cash. No need to waste time on this bullshit bro. I'll make it easy for ya.Comment -
Dante brought up a good point about the percentage of the line movement. If the line moves off the opener(-105) to a +105, that is stronger than a -140 to a -155 favorite. Take the winning percentages of the lines not soo much the cents it has moved. A +105 to a -105 there is a 2.44 differential in win %age. A -140 to a -155 move is only a 1.60 diff. So the better play in the example is the first one.
Early plays would be on St.Louis and Baltimore if you believe in overnite movement.Comment -
Originally posted by dogman
You might also want to toss a filter or two to refine results. That is completely up to you and some research might indicate the possibilities. For example, I believe that Baltimore is 2-8 last ten. And if my memory is correct, from just a few hours ago lol, Baltimore pitcher tonight has lost his last three and has given up about 15 earned runs in last three. So a filter might eliminate Baltimore as a play. This is just an example and with some research you can decide if a filter is logical or not.Comment -
Nothing wrong with using filters. If the line moved towards Baltimores favor since the opener and the O's are 2-8 in thier last 10 you would think they have to have some smart money on them. I haven't checked to see what %age of the public bets are on Balt but I would assume it would be pretty low, yet the line moved in their favor.
Now come gametime that could change, of course and the line may move towards Boston.
Right now my plays following this method would be on St. Louis, Washington,Toronto and Baltimore. I would base that on a winning %age difference of 1.50 or higher based on the opener at BM and their line as of now. Baltimore went from a decent play to a smaller play with the recent line movement.
It is probably best to wait closer to GT to make the plays but as some have mentioned many times you will be getting a much worse line than the opener by following a system like this. I personally would play some of the games early to hopefully get a better line than the closer. I am betting these small as baseball is not my strong suit.Comment -
So far Tuesday
2 Cinn
1 Det
0 Bost
13 Tor
6 TB
27 Fla
10 St. Louis
10 Wash
1 Phil
6 Minn
3 KC
1 Atl
1 Ariz
10 Tex
5 LADComment -
These were the closing plays
Top Plays
Toronto 17 cents
Fla 27 cents
St. Louis 20 cents
Wash 10 cents
Minn 12 cents
Tex 12 cents
Medium Plays
Pitt 6 cents
Oak 7 cents
Balt 5 cents
TB 9 cents
KC 9 cents
LAD 5 cents
No Play
Phil 2 cents
Colo 2 cents
Ariz 1 centComment -
looks very promising, but too many plays each day.Comment -
final line update. someone grade thisComment -
[quote=Cannon;10801982]These were the closing plays
Top Plays
Toronto 17 cents (WINNER)
Fla 27 cents (LOSER)
St. Louis 20 cents (LOSER)
Wash 10 cents (LOSER)
Minn 12 cents (WINNER)
Tex 12 cents (WINNER)
Medium Plays
Pitt 6 cents (WINNER)
Oak 7 cents (LOSER)
Balt 5 cents (WINNER)
TB 9 cents (WINNER)
KC 9 cents (WINNER)
LAD 5 cents (LOSER)
No Play
Phil 2 cents
Colo 2 cents
Ariz 0 centComment -
Your medium seems to be where its at the big favorites took a beating today.Comment -
Record since I started tracking
Top Plays
18-7
Regular plays
13-4
Total
31-11Comment -
Some nice moves on the early games will post them at 11:00 central.Comment -
Top Plays
Cinn closed at 14 cents
Clev closed at 13 cents
Regular Plays
Bost closed at 9 cents
Still to start moves so far
Wash 21 cents
Phil 8 cents
San Fran 10 cents
Night games
Oak no line moves
Tor 25 cents
Yanks 2 cents
St. Louis 9 cents
Fla 30 cents
KC 1 cent
ATL no move
Mil 1 cent
Tex 6 centsComment -
Line moves should be a big part of everyones capping but blindly taking every line move while getting the worst of every line is losing strategy in the longhaulComment
