LTA's MLB Plays

**Tofudog** · 06-13-12, 07:28 PM

Looking good so far LTA

**1Time!** · 06-13-12, 07:57 PM

Originally posted by Tofudog

Looking good so far LTA

nice jinx buddy.. the game is never over until its finished

**pacocn** · 06-13-12, 07:58 PM

Thanks Ex, appreciate it.

**SlickRick1382** · 06-13-12, 10:08 PM

Another 9th inning job that could of at least allowed us a push. Gotta love it ...

**guil0000** · 06-13-12, 10:29 PM

A small card tomorrow but tons of stuff stand out to me.... that usually doesn't end so well... Anyone with thoughts on the matchups?

**guil0000** · 06-13-12, 10:32 PM

I'm personally already on Colorado and the Mets (In which I think the line is wayyyy off). With leans on Houston, White Sox, and Philly/Minny Under 9

**brahmabull117** · 06-13-12, 10:46 PM

Originally posted by guil0000

I'm personally already on Colorado and the Mets (In which I think the line is wayyyy off). With leans on Houston, White Sox, and Philly/Minny Under 9

I'd stay far away from the White Sox. I live in Chicago and catch a lot of their games. Gavin Floyd is absolutely brutal, he might give up 5 or 6 runs by himself here

**SlickRick1382** · 06-13-12, 10:51 PM

11 games is a small card?

I agree with Mets. Also like Verlander at -1RL.

**LoneStar** · 06-13-12, 11:03 PM

06/14 mil, tb, oak

**brahmabull117** · 06-13-12, 11:22 PM

Originally posted by SlickRick1382

11 games is a small card?

I agree with Mets. Also like Verlander at -1RL.

I really want to back Verlander, but boy oh boy he's been a terrible betting proposition to support this year. I like him facing a bunch of hitters with zero plate discipline but that is a huge price to pay

Can the Tigers offense score 5+ runs for sure? Very inconsistent offense

**LoneStar** · 06-14-12, 12:03 AM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

I really want to back Verlander, but boy oh boy he's been a terrible betting proposition to support this year. I like him facing a bunch of hitters with zero plate discipline but that is a huge price to pay

Can the Tigers offense score 5+ runs for sure? Very inconsistent offense

Really Brahmabull117 you scared now...huh? You didn't think you would get'em at a cheap price did you? You didn't think it was a terrible betting proposition the other day when you posted this below...or are you just spreading your troll urine on the new jacks? Can they score 5+ runs...please....what ya fucken think pal...was the 4 runs in the 6th inning not good enough for ya on topping the cubs off 8-4 the other night, what the 7 runs and a come back on Sunday night against Cincinnati not answer your question? Better yet... the 5+ runs in 10 of 11 meetings with CHI your not seeing? Come-on pal give it a break you're in every thread talking FADE CUBS FADE CUBS. now your tucking your tail under your pussssy.

Originally posted by brahmabull117

Well, 5 vs 7 isn't a huge difference - they're both terrible. Truth be told, it's not a bad play. Anything fading the cubs is not a bad play, but I'm more focused on backing Detroit when they have Verlander going in game 3

With that being said, why is Sherzer giving up so many hits this year? I don't remember ever seeing somebody who had such a phenomenal k to bb ratio, yet terrible numbers otherwise. What in the world?

Post#8676
Source: http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-b...l#post15038946

**taxe91** · 06-14-12, 12:04 AM

Originally posted by LoneStar

Really Brahmabull117 you scared now...huh? You didn't think you would get'em at a cheap price did you? You didn't think it was a terrible betting proposition the other day when you posted this below...or are you just spreading your troll urine on the new jacks? Can they score 5+ runs...please....what ya fucken think pal...was the 4 runs in the 6th inning not good enough for ya on topping the cubs off 8-4 the other night, what the 7 runs and a come back on Sunday night against Cincinnati not answer your question? Better yet... the 5+ runs in 10 of 11 meetings with CHI your not seeing? Come-on pal give it a break you're in every thread talking FADE CUBS FADE CUBS. now your tucking your tail under your pussssy.

Post#8676
Source: http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-b...l#post15038946

if you have a vendetta with somebody please take it out of the thread. brahma makes a thread of his daily plays just post it there

**LoneStar** · 06-14-12, 12:19 AM

Originally posted by taxe91

if you have a vendetta with somebody please take it out of the thread. brahma makes a thread of his daily plays just post it there

what are you a mod now....tell me where to post my replies

and who said anything about having a vendetta on the guy. Thats just your intupertion, I'm just keeping him honest for anyone looking up to this clowns perception.

**brahmabull117** · 06-14-12, 12:28 AM

Originally posted by LoneStar

Really Brahmabull117 you scared now...huh? You didn't think you would get'em at a cheap price did you? You didn't think it was a terrible betting proposition the other day when you posted this below...or are you just spreading your troll urine on the new jacks? Can they score 5+ runs...please....what ya fucken think pal...was the 4 runs in the 6th inning not good enough for ya on topping the cubs off 8-4 the other night, what the 7 runs and a come back on Sunday night against Cincinnati not answer your question? Better yet... the 5+ runs in 10 of 11 meetings with CHI your not seeing? Come-on pal give it a break you're in every thread talking FADE CUBS FADE CUBS. now your tucking your tail under your pussssy.

Post#8676
Source: http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-b...l#post15038946

Well I thought it would be - 150 to 160 to be honest, -200 is crazy

**taxe91** · 06-14-12, 12:34 AM

Originally posted by LoneStar

what are you a mod now....tell me where to post my replies

and who said anything about having a vendetta on the guy. Thats just your intupertion, I'm just keeping him honest for anyone looking up to this clowns perception.

im not a mod, but every now and then this thread gets taken over with spamming and flaming. by the way howd you manage to spell interpretation with a 'u' ?

**SlickRick1382** · 06-14-12, 12:34 AM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

Well I thought it would be - 150 to 160 to be honest, -200 is crazy

So play the -1RL and you'll get the -150 or -160 you hoped for ...

**LoneStar** · 06-14-12, 12:49 AM

Originally posted by taxe91

im not a mod, but every now and then this thread gets taken over with spamming and flaming. by the way howd you manage to spell interpretation with a 'u' ?

You know what taxe91 you wanna tell me how I got 2 C's in go fucck yourself pal... cause apparently your now spamming and have a vendetta on me now you flaming f\*g-it.

Originally posted by SlickRick1382

So play the -1RL and you'll get the -150 or -160 you hoped for ...

you bet me to it SlickRick well said.

**taxe91** · 06-14-12, 01:56 AM

How do you like Johan and the Mets @ +117 tomorrow, LTA? He's got the better peripherals than Hellickson and the Mets offense has somehow been hotter than the Rays' lately

**SlickRick1382** · 06-14-12, 02:06 AM

Originally posted by taxe91

How do you like Johan and the Mets @ +117 tomorrow, LTA? He's got the better peripherals than Hellickson and the Mets offense has somehow been hotter than the Rays' lately

If I remember correctly LTA isn't a big fan of Hellickson and has faded him before stating that he's due for some serious regression .... Although we lost that bet to the best of my recollection I'd have to assume his thoughts on Hellickson are unchanged. All that matters is if the value is there on the Mets...

**SlickRick1382** · 06-14-12, 02:08 AM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

I really want to back Verlander, but boy oh boy he's been a terrible betting proposition to support this year. I like him facing a bunch of hitters with zero plate discipline but that is a huge price to pay

Can the Tigers offense score 5+ runs for sure? Very inconsistent offense

Issue with them scoring runs won't be their inefficiency as much as the fact that they're terrible against LHP's
lost 11 of last 11 games against LHP if my info is correct ...

**taxe91** · 06-14-12, 02:24 AM

Originally posted by SlickRick1382

If I remember correctly LTA isn't a big fan of Hellickson and has faded him before stating that he's due for some serious regression .... Although we lost that bet to the best of my recollection I'd have to assume his thoughts on Hellickson are unchanged. All that matters is if the value is there on the Mets...

Yeah I believe the jury is still out on Hellickson. If you looked at his BABIP you'd immediately think he's fade material but he benefits from Joe Maddon's defensive shifts and he's got one of the best changeups in baseball too so hitters are always off balance and hitting little weak ground balls or pop flys. He's pitched 300 innings in the majors with a ridiculous .234 BABIP so it's hard to tell if it's really all smoke and mirrors or if he can really maintain that number.

Having said that Johan's numbers are much better, less walks, more strikeouts, almost all the advanced stats are in his favour. Could call it a good 'bounce back' spot for him too coming off the no hitter then getting spanked by the Yankees.

**brahmabull117** · 06-14-12, 02:50 AM

Originally posted by taxe91

Yeah I believe the jury is still out on Hellickson. If you looked at his BABIP you'd immediately think he's fade material but he benefits from Joe Maddon's defensive shifts and he's got one of the best changeups in baseball too so hitters are always off balance and hitting little weak ground balls or pop flys. He's pitched 300 innings in the majors with a ridiculous .234 BABIP so it's hard to tell if it's really all smoke and mirrors or if he can really maintain that number.

....and you wonder why I can't take BABIP as gospel. The odds of him having a low BABIP on 300 innings in the majors just based on pure luck is very small (Not that BABIP is not a quality stat, I just hesitate to apply it to every pitcher indiscriminately like a lot of people seem to do)

Sometimes advanced stats lie. Ryan Vogelson is another guy with horrible advanced numbers and he dominated the best road offense in the league - Rangers - for an easy win a few days ago

**taxe91** · 06-14-12, 03:21 AM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

....and you wonder why I can't take BABIP as gospel. The odds of him having a low BABIP on 300 innings in the majors just based on pure luck is very small (Not that BABIP is not a quality stat, I just hesitate to apply it to every pitcher indiscriminately like a lot of people seem to do)

Sometimes advanced stats lie. Ryan Vogelson is another guy with horrible advanced numbers and he dominated the best road offense in the league - Rangers - for an easy win a few days ago

Both these pitchers have a LOB% of 84% this year so its hard to argue that they arent pitching with some luck. But yeah it is difficult to just arbitrarily judge all pitchers on one statistic, like BABIP, which explains why we have so many advanced stats to go by

**Redscot** · 06-14-12, 07:15 AM

Originally posted by taxe91

Yeah I believe the jury is still out on Hellickson. If you looked at his BABIP you'd immediately think he's fade material but he benefits from Joe Maddon's defensive shifts and he's got one of the best changeups in baseball too so hitters are always off balance and hitting little weak ground balls or pop flys. He's pitched 300 innings in the majors with a ridiculous .234 BABIP so it's hard to tell if it's really all smoke and mirrors or if he can really maintain that number.

Having said that Johan's numbers are much better, less walks, more strikeouts, almost all the advanced stats are in his favour. Could call it a good 'bounce back' spot for him too coming off the no hitter then getting spanked by the Yankees.

Brings tears to my eyes, I tell ya! Seeing this type of info being utilized rather than....Tampa is 11-4 last 15 in day games on Thursday in the month of June. Or, Mets hitters are 14-40 combined (not true) off Hellickson, they have his number!...which dominate this site.

Anywho to the game at hand.....whether a sample of last 14 days to last month the Rays are not generating runs reflected by their sub 80 wrc+ over those periods. They have handled LHP decently this season, but Longoria, and even Keppinger had something to do with that and they are not around atm. Santana got his post no-hit hangover game out of the way and has been terrific this year, his lob % is consistent with his career numbers, his babip slightly low so maybe a bit of regression is due....BUT the rate at which he is missing bats 11.6 % suggests his Change up is befuddling hitters. Hellickson as Taxe pointed out is a poster child for regression, who just doesn't seem to regress! If you have seen varying articles recently on Tampa's shifting defense (and shifting defense in general) and the effects it can have on babip, you know it is a very real variable. It isn't an accident that Tampa plays over its head year after year. The thing that gets me about Hellickson is his lob% is over 80 %, is that really sustainable? WTF? His swinging strike % is down to league average more or less, but perhaps that is by design too....Mets hot, Rays not....Santana>Hellickson....Mets +118 at Pinny whereas everyone else has them in the +110 range......hmmmmm

**Redscot** · 06-14-12, 07:20 AM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

....and you wonder why I can't take BABIP as gospel. The odds of him having a low BABIP on 300 innings in the majors just based on pure luck is very small (Not that BABIP is not a quality stat, I just hesitate to apply it to every pitcher indiscriminately like a lot of people seem to do)

Sometimes advanced stats lie. Ryan Vogelson is another guy with horrible advanced numbers and he dominated the best road offense in the league - Rangers - for an easy win a few days ago

It can only be utilized as a small piece to a large puzzle. In Tampa's case it can partly be attributed to them being at the vanguard in defensive metrics...leading the league last year in team pitching .babip.....interestingly enough, this year they are closer to middle of the pack thus far, although that may be attributed to their personnel on the infield.

**taxe91** · 06-14-12, 07:40 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

Brings tears to my eyes, I tell ya! Seeing this type of info being utilized rather than....Tampa is 11-4 last 15 in day games on Thursday in the month of June. Or, Mets hitters are 14-40 combined (not true) off Hellickson, they have his number!...which dominate this site.

Anywho to the game at hand.....whether a sample of last 14 days to last month the Rays are not generating runs reflected by their sub 80 wrc+ over those periods. They have handled LHP decently this season, but Longoria, and even Keppinger had something to do with that and they are not around atm. Santana got his post no-hit hangover game out of the way and has been terrific this year, his lob % is consistent with his career numbers, his babip slightly low so maybe a bit of regression is due....BUT the rate at which he is missing bats 11.6 % suggests his Change up is befuddling hitters. Hellickson as Taxe pointed out is a poster child for regression, who just doesn't seem to regress! If you have seen varying articles recently on Tampa's shifting defense (and shifting defense in general) and the effects it can have on babip, you know it is a very real variable. It isn't an accident that Tampa plays over its head year after year. The thing that gets me about Hellickson is his lob% is over 80 %, is that really sustainable? WTF? His swinging strike % is down to league average more or less, but perhaps that is by design too....Mets hot, Rays not....Santana>Hellickson....Mets +118 at Pinny whereas everyone else has them in the +110 range......hmmmmm

Santana's post no-hit 'hangover' game you mentioned was actually really key to me liking this play. He pitched against the Yankees on extra rest and I believe he threw <90 pitches in the outing so he'll be as fresh as possible for this matchup. I'm not sure how to assess the Rays offense though, would you consider this a 'bounce back' spot for the hitters considering they effectively got no-hit yesterday? Is it just part of a longer term slump? Mets collectively as an offense have the 3rd highest BABIP in the league and the Rays have the 3rd lowest, while both having almost identical K% and BB%'s.

I've locked onto the Mets @ +117 because I think even on a bad day the Mets offense is no worse than the Rays, and when it comes down to pitching I'd take Johan, even in a 'rehab' year, over Hellickson

**guil0000** · 06-14-12, 07:51 AM

Originally posted by taxe91

Santana's post no-hit 'hangover' game you mentioned was actually really key to me liking this play. He pitched against the Yankees on extra rest and I believe he threw <90 pitches in the outing so he'll be as fresh as possible for this matchup. I'm not sure how to assess the Rays offense though, would you consider this a 'bounce back' spot for the hitters considering they effectively got no-hit yesterday? Is it just part of a longer term slump? Mets collectively as an offense have the 3rd highest BABIP in the league and the Rays have the 3rd lowest, while both having almost identical K% and BB%'s.

I've locked onto the Mets @ +117 because I think even on a bad day the Mets offense is no worse than the Rays, and when it comes down to pitching I'd take Johan, even in a 'rehab' year, over Hellickson

exactly and all that at + money, which is definitely key here

**Dmil** · 06-14-12, 10:39 AM

Mets manager Terry Collins said the team would appeal the official scorer's ruling on Upton's hit to the commissioner's office. Are u kidding me Collins? If that's the case, take Santana no-no off the books.

**Redscot** · 06-14-12, 11:04 AM

Wow, I am tempted on a Mets -1RL in the +140's.....probably getting too greedy here.

Would have backed Wandy at +125 I think, too late now...

Anyone like S.D. at +120+

How about the under in Minny?

Ugly looking leans over here today...might be a day to sit back and just chill.

**italianbandit** · 06-14-12, 11:19 AM

Ugly day. Don't like Mets.

**Redscot** · 06-14-12, 11:27 AM

Originally posted by italianbandit

Ugly day. Don't like Mets.

Tampa gathering steam as well......

**Redscot** · 06-14-12, 03:51 PM

Good lord, they don't make it easy do they. Went with the Muts -1 RL and really had to sweat it out at the end. Wishing I had caught that Houston line early this morning, passed on it later in the day.....

**Trivial** · 06-14-12, 04:40 PM

Heya folks. I have the evening off tonight. GL tonight. I am trying to figure out what to do.

**Redscot** · 06-14-12, 05:13 PM

Originally posted by Trivial

Heya folks. I have the evening off tonight. GL tonight. I am trying to figure out what to do.

Ugly card Triv. Lotta crap shoots out there and not much value to be gained IMO. I leaned under in K.C. but both pens are heavily taxed....no go for me.

Lean under in Minny and STL too

...still debating those 2.

Lost on tonights NBA game too,

. Tough to find me at a loss for plays....I tend to be Action Jackson.

Hope you enjoy your night off whatever you decide to do

**Les_Nuts** · 06-14-12, 05:21 PM

Eyeing that 5.5 total for sale/kershaw tommorrow, should be a great pitching matchup. Don't like anything tonight, GL all