LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

The market isn't always right.

Right about what? Our discussion was about value. The market is efficient and dictates value based on such efficiency.

[Love The Action]

"Very solid" vs. "dominant" is semantics?

Huh?

[Love The Action]

Thanks, just wanted to hear your reasoning. Hopefully Miami cools off today. Tough one last night the Rockies had some late inning opportunities. Helton called strike 3 with runner on third to end the game, ball appeared to be off the plate.

Good luck buddy

[Love The Action]

Could it have anything to do with him being one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball thus far this year? .189 Babip is off the charts and leads all starters in MLB. Combine that with a 3.9% HR/FB compared to his career norms of 10.7% and you get the 1.79 era which is really an illusion. Don't get me wrong, he has pitched well, but he hasn't turned into Kershaw overnight and will gradually come back down to earth. It is no coincidence that the line has moved towards Joe Saunders, of all people.

The more I look at this game, the more I like Arizona....

[riffraff24]

Hey LTA - Any thoughts on the Rangers/Mariners total? Thinking of buying the 7.5 down to 7 and rolling with the over.

I have 1 open spot on a 3-teamer with the first 2 already winners...

[No coincidences]

Right about what? Our discussion was about value. The market is efficient and dictates value based on such efficiency.

Always?

Anyway, it's a moot point now. Congrats on the Rays.

[No coincidences]

Huh?

There isn't a difference between "very solid" and "dominant"?

[Love The Action]

There isn't a difference between "very solid" and "dominant"?

The difference is in our view of Shields. His numbers are "dominate" imho but according to your "eye" for pitching he has been anything but. I asked you if you would prefer "very solid" to describe Shields based on your eyeball test. To me, that is semantics. The idea that you continue to argue my use of the adjective "dominate" in a two second post that i made from my phone makes me laugh. Thanks for the chuckle.

[Pride]

Rays choke it away by not being able to get a run on so many chances. Tough luck

[Love The Action]

Got burned by another bullpen.... Shields did his job

[Pride]

He did more than he needed to but two bad pitches is all it took. Rays offense dried up and they could have small balled a run or two in easily

[Pride]

Seven men stranded in scoring position today for the rays.

[Redscot]

Really don't know what I was thinking not backing the Mets or the under today. Hindsight is 20/20 I suppose. Looks like the Rays pulled it out after almost blowing it, so we are off and running today.

Not necessarily my preferred genre of music but lets hope this is where we start tomorrow!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwIvBNsSywQ

[Atlfan12]

why is it that everyone I follow takes the unders? is there some hidden secret, or is that the easiest bet? just trying to figure it out

[Love The Action]

Really don't know what I was thinking not backing the Mets or the under today. Hindsight is 20/20 I suppose. Looks like the Rays pulled it out after almost blowing it, so we are off and running today.

Not necessarily my preferred genre of music but lets hope this is where we start tomorrow!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwIvBNsSywQ

Tell me about it....kicking myself for not playing the under. I also leaned over in the balty game but shied away because of the line move. Could have started 3-0....such is life. As you say, hindsight is 20/20 and 1-0 is better than 0-1.

Good luck tonight buddy....time to make a move.

[Redscot]

When you have a moment LTA I have a question for you. In discussing a daily betting card you have often stated that you wouldn't limit your plays to X amount daily because in essence you should bet any game where you feel you have an edge/value. I notice however that you and many other "sharp" bettors don't like to have a side and a total in the same game. Why not? Using the Mets today, if I felt I had value on the side as well as the total, shouldn't I try to take advantage of both? Appreciate any input you can give me here....always trying to hone the betting skills.

[Love The Action]

why is it that everyone I follow takes the unders? is there some hidden secret, or is that the easiest bet? just trying to figure it out

I just played three overs in the last two days. However, I do prefer to play unders in baseball because we tend to get more value on the under in certain spots because of the public's propensity to play overs. When you bet the under you are trusting the pitchers to pitch well and fielders to field well. When you bet the over, you need the hitters to hit. Hitting well in MLB is very difficult and I would rather back a team not to hit than to score a certain amount. Does that make sense. Bottom line, however, is that you need to play the value wherever it lies no matter if it's on the over or under. GL

[whtsox13]

Didn't you say last week something like "rookie mistake" being scared away by line movement? I have no idea what I'm talking about 1st season wagering. Took the Rays today too... There seems to be something with FF as I've never seen worse bullpens-Do you look at those?

[Love The Action]

When you have a moment LTA I have a question for you. In discussing a daily betting card you have often stated that you wouldn't limit your plays to X amount daily because in essence you should bet any game where you feel you have an edge/value. I notice however that you and many other "sharp" bettors don't like to have a side and a total in the same game. Why not? Using the Mets today, if I felt I had value on the side as well as the total, shouldn't I try to take advantage of both? Appreciate any input you can give me here....always trying to hone the betting skills.

Last week I played the white sox and the white sox under when Sale faced off against Wilson. We cashed the side and pushed the total (weird line movement occurred and I got a bad number early). Anyway, to answer your question, yes you should play both the side and total if and only if both plays have value/edge (ie are +ev) and are correlated. Using my example above, I knew that the sox held about 13 cents of value and if they were going to win there was a high probability it would be in a low scoring game because both teams are so poor against lefties. This is why many "sharps" will tell you that one of the few +ev parlays is a correlated parlay on the side and total of the same game. The question is invariably whether a true correlation exists or whether you are looking at a red herring. It's not easy to find correlations.

[gambler1270]

books

hey guys,i've been having trouble with my local bookmaker.i'm thinking about trying an overseas book.i see you guys talking about pinnacle and five dimes.could any of you guys give me any info on either(payments,deposits,withdrawels).an y feedback would be greatly appreciated.LTA i know this is in the wrong forum(tried the other ones and didn't get much response)but i respect your opinion and writeups greatly.thanks for any help

[Love The Action]

LTA, any thought on games with open roof or closed?

I'm asking because today in Houston the temps are in the 80s, very nice day out, so most likely the roof will be open. Wind will be blowing out about 14mph. Minute Maid is a hitters friendly park also. I'm curious to know what kind of effect the wind really has when a roof is open on any stadium. Does it only come into play when its a high pop up or do winds cause tunnel effects inside?

Maybe you could point in the right direction here. Something to read, numbers to look at.

There is no correlation between wind and higher scoring at minute maid....

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/when-the-wind-blows/

http://www.parkfactors.com/

http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?t...=0&season=2011.

[Redscot]

Last week I played the white sox and the white sox under when Sale faced off against Wilson. We cashed the side and pushed the total (weird line movement occurred and I got a bad number early). Anyway, to answer your question, yes you should play both the side and total if and only if both plays have value/edge (ie are +ev) and are correlated. Using my example above, I knew that the sox held about 13 cents of value and if they were going to win there was a high probability it would be in a low scoring game because both teams are so poor against lefties. This is why many "sharps" will tell you that one of the few +ev parlays is a correlated parlay on the side and total of the same game. The question is invariably whether a true correlation exists or whether you are looking at a red herring. It's not easy to find correlations.

Nice. I can see what you mean by the "red herring" element though. Look at the Mariners game the other night with King Felix. One could be convinced that +126 was Value on the side....and being hot and bothered about that value then think, well if they DO win it will because Felix limits them and Seattle's offense does suck so the under MUST have value too.

Can be a slippery slope I suppose, but I just wanted to make sure that there wasn't some unwritten rule in the "sharp" (gotta use the ", because there are so few) community against betting a side and total in a game.

[Redscot]

If anyone had a Reds lean today now would be the time (actually ship has probably sailed on value). No Chipper, no Heyward and now McCann a scratch.

[TxBulldog]

There is no correlation between wind and higher scoring at minute maid....

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/when-the-wind-blows/

http://www.parkfactors.com/

http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?t...=0&season=2011.

I can tell you from attending games at Minute Maid, this is absolutely true. Due to how it is contructed, the only wind impact I would account for with the roof open is a Gale Force wind IN from left. It could be blowing out to any field and the sides of the park still provide too much protection to result in an impact. MM does not have any openings to allow the wind to impact at field level.

[Redscot]

hey guys,i've been having trouble with my local bookmaker.i'm thinking about trying an overseas book.i see you guys talking about pinnacle and five dimes.could any of you guys give me any info on either(payments,deposits,withdrawels).an y feedback would be greatly appreciated.LTA i know this is in the wrong forum(tried the other ones and didn't get much response)but i respect your opinion and writeups greatly.thanks for any help

I just recently got fed up with my local, and him with me to some extent , and finally deposited off shore. I went with 5Dimes and although it hasn't been long I have been very satisfied. Their reduced juice lines are a HUGE bonus. The in game betting for the NBA playoffs has also been very profitable to me thus far and a great option that my local could not provide me. I Western Unioned 5dimes and they credited my money within 30 minutes and credited me the transaction cost as well. Haven't requested a payout "yet" , but judging from other respected bettors they are a solid operation and should be in business for the foreseeable future.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/23/2012

Play #1

Devil Rays ML (-114) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Phillies -1RL (-105) 1x (Locked)
Play #3

Cubs/Astros under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Twins/White Sox under (8)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Play #5

Rockies ML (+152) 1x (Locked)

Play #6

Tigers/Indians under (8.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Good luck.

[gambler1270]

thanks red,been doing some research myself and they look pretty good.i think i'm going to give them a shot.let me know how your withdrawel request goes,that was my biggest concern.thanks again

[Redscot]

The more I look at this game, the more I like Arizona....

Dodger lineup tonight:

1. Elian Herrera (S) CF
2. Jerry Sands (R) LF
3. Bobby Abreu (L) RF
4. Scott Van Slyke (R) 1B
5. A.J. Ellis (R) C
6. Ivan De Jesus (R) 2B
7. Dee Gordon (L) SS
8. Justin Sellers (R) 3B
9. Ted Lilly (L) P

That is straight doo-doo! Yet and still their mojo is running high. Been watching some of their games and they have some nice camaraderie going on. Team has been like a 94 win team over the last calender year, go figure . Gotta give Donnie baseball some credit I suppose....

[Love The Action]

Red...thoughts on backing the Diamondbacks tonight? I normally would lay off now that all value is gone but I propose to play it on the -1RL at +115 to avoid the juice still create the value, all just at the risk of a push.

[SlickRick1382]

There is no correlation between wind and higher scoring at minute maid....

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/when-the-wind-blows/

http://www.parkfactors.com/

http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?t...=0&season=2011.

Park Factors for Wednesday, May 23

[an error occurred while processing this directive]Is

it just me or is that sight down?

[Redscot]

Red...thoughts on backing the Diamondbacks tonight? I normally would lay off now that all value is gone but I propose to play it on the -1RL at +115 to avoid the juice still create the value, all just at the risk of a push.

I agree that the -1 RL would be the only way I'd play it. I just can't explain how the Dodgers are putting up runs. Their Wrc+ over the last 2 weeks is the best in ALL of baseball!? In a vacuum this play is a no-brainer IMO (even with Saunders), but gotta admit I'm kinda spooked.

[Love The Action]

I agree that the -1 RL would be the only way I'd play it. I just can't explain how the Dodgers are putting up runs. Their Wrc+ over the last 2 weeks is the best in ALL of baseball!? In a vacuum this play is a no-brainer IMO (even with Saunders), but gotta admit I'm kinda spooked.

Exactly....so do you ride the unusual trend or fade it based on the inevitability of a regression?

[MikeyD323]

Thanx for the rays pick tdy LTA. Keep it up brotha. GL tonite

[Smutbucket]

this trend is drawn out. inevitably of regression,

[Redscot]

Exactly....so do you ride the unusual trend or fade it based on the inevitability of a regression?

That would be the logical move. Me having a Psych background, sometimes I overestimate the mental/emotional side of things. In baseball, I actually think it probably plays out less in fact, due to the nature of the game.