LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

Agreed. On another note. Wandy at home against the worst lineup Wrc+ vs. LHP. Samardzja missing bats at a ridiculius 13.3% and the Astros below average against RHP. What you think about the under there? Is 7 asking too much of them?

I like the under. Is the roof open? I should have played it last night and I could have gotten +110. Now I'm just waiting to see. It is most likely a play for me. GL

[Love The Action]

Interested to see your write-up re: this play.

No time for a writeup. Even though Romero has pitched well against TB in the past, he is not the same pitcher this year and especially to left handers who are giving him a lot of trouble. Toronto generally struggles against right handed pitchers (ranked bottom 10 in the league), no reason not to like Shields and TB has hit lefties very well this season (top 10 in the league despite losing their last five to left handed starters). Most importantly, I have TB set at -122 so I like the value at -114.

I take it you like Toronto....why? Good luck.

[Redscot]

I like the under. Is the roof open? I should have played it last night and I could have gotten +110. Now I'm just waiting to see. It is most likely a play for me. GL

Not sure about the roof. Also feel like there is a play in the Wsox/Twins game, just not sure which way to go with it. Twins have been surprisingly effective against LHP, mostly due to a patient approach and low strike out totals.

[Love The Action]

Not sure about the roof. Also feel like there is a play in the Wsox/Twins game, just not sure which way to go with it. Twins have been surprisingly effective against LHP, mostly due to a patient approach and low strike out totals.

Hahah, you are reading my mind with these plays. I like Diamond, but cannot fade Sale. Coming of an 11 run game, I like this to be a lower scoring game. Possible play on the under shortly.

[Love The Action]

Also like the early Mets/Pirates under, but don't like Schrieber as the ump....need to think about it.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/23/2012

Play #1

Devil Rays ML (-114) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Phillies -1RL (-105) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Cubs/Astros under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Twins/White Sox under (8)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Good luck.

[Love The Action]

I have the Cubs game set at 5.9 and White Sox game at 7.01. I like the value on both and expect both to close with juice on the under. Cubs are struggling with the bats, especially against lefties and with Wandy having a very solid season I don't see them getting much off of him. As Red mentioned, Samardizja is missing a ton of bats and that is what you need to do when pitching in Minute Maid. His advanced numbers are very, very impressive right now so no reason not to back him. The ump is Tschida which is not the best assignment, but the ineptitude of the Cubs offense should offset that factor.

The White Sox are the worst or close to worst team against left handers and Diamond has had a great start to this season with very good advanced numbers. Sale is filthy and also has great advanced numbers. Both guys have faced the opposing lineups last season and fared well, but there should also be some unfamiliarity working for them considering they have not faced every hitter they will face today. The ump in this one is Kerwin Danley who is rather neutral with a lifetime strike rate in the meaty part of the curve between 62%-63%. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

The more I look at this Devil Rays and Blue Jays game, the more I LOVE the Rays today. There seems to be a lot of Blue Jays love because the Rays have lost five in a row to lefties, however, that is a meaningless stat. They are actually hitting lefties very very well this season and Romero is not himself. His advanced numbers are very poor by his standards and downright pedestrian this year. Meanwhile, Shields continues to dominate. The price has dropped back down from -120 and I might just add to that play. GL

[1Time!]

Hey LTA, just asked this in your NBA thread but wanted a quick answer so I can lock it in & go to sleep..
Sportsbet in Australia has the spurs/thunder total still at 201.. How many units would you hit it for at that number?

[1Time!]

Cancel that! Someone there must be reading this thread as it just shot up to 204.5 after I wrote the question! Dammit!!

[pacocn]

Lta, nice looking card, bol today,

[innn]

The more I look at this Devil Rays and Blue Jays game, the more I LOVE the Rays today. There seems to be a lot of Blue Jays love because the Rays have lost five in a row to lefties, however, that is a meaningless stat. They are actually hitting lefties very very well this season and Romero is not himself. His advanced numbers are very poor by his standards and downright pedestrian this year. Meanwhile, Shields continues to dominate. The price has dropped back down from -120 and I might just add to that play. GL

Good luck LTA but I hate James Shields , overrated
Go Romie! In thy hands I commit my money

[riffraff24]

The more I look at this Devil Rays and Blue Jays game, the more I LOVE the Rays today. There seems to be a lot of Blue Jays love because the Rays have lost five in a row to lefties, however, that is a meaningless stat. They are actually hitting lefties very very well this season and Romero is not himself. His advanced numbers are very poor by his standards and downright pedestrian this year. Meanwhile, Shields continues to dominate. The price has dropped back down from -120 and I might just add to that play. GL

I like this play LTA. But curious question...Why do you think the juice dropped back to -120 if there is so much Blue Jays love like you said? Thanks for all your hard work!

[CHAZ]

Play #3
Cubs/Astros under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

LTA, any thought on games with open roof or closed?

I'm asking because today in Houston the temps are in the 80s, very nice day out, so most likely the roof will be open. Wind will be blowing out about 14mph. Minute Maid is a hitters friendly park also. I'm curious to know what kind of effect the wind really has when a roof is open on any stadium. Does it only come into play when its a high pop up or do winds cause tunnel effects inside?

Maybe you could point in the right direction here. Something to read, numbers to look at.

[No coincidences]

The more I look at this Devil Rays and Blue Jays game, the more I LOVE the Rays today. There seems to be a lot of Blue Jays love because the Rays have lost five in a row to lefties, however, that is a meaningless stat. They are actually hitting lefties very very well this season and Romero is not himself. His advanced numbers are very poor by his standards and downright pedestrian this year. Meanwhile, Shields continues to dominate. The price has dropped back down from -120 and I might just add to that play. GL

He does? 21 runs allowed in his last 30.1 IP....

I've watched a few of those starts, and he's been far from dominant.

[guil0000]

Can I know where you guys get your Wrc + vs RLP and LHP?

Thanks!

[Redscot]

He does? 21 runs allowed in his last 30.1 IP....

I've watched a few of those starts, and he's been far from dominant.

Yup, the long ball has been his bugaboo of late. What with 3 of his last 4 in NY, Bal, Tex might of exacerbated the problem. Being in the friendly confines of the Trop should help him mitigate some of the big fly's a bit.

[Redscot]

Can I know where you guys get your Wrc + vs RLP and LHP?

Thanks!

Fangraphs. Start off by going to the glossary and readin up on wrc+, then check out Siera and Xfip if you like as well.

[No coincidences]

Yup, the long ball has been his bugaboo of late. What with 3 of his last 4 in NY, Bal, Tex might of exacerbated the problem. Being in the friendly confines of the Trop should help him mitigate some of the big fly's a bit.

I'm not expecting a ton of runs or Shields to get shelled -- just personally think there's more value in Romero at this number than Shields.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/23/2012

Play #1

Devil Rays ML (-114) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Phillies -1RL (-105) 1x (Locked)
Play #3

Cubs/Astros under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Twins/White Sox under (8)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Play #5

Rockies ML (+152) 1x (Locked)
Good luck.

[Love The Action]

He does? 21 runs allowed in his last 30.1 IP....

I've watched a few of those starts, and he's been far from dominant.

Ok, but only 16 of those runs were earned runs. Romero had 14 earned runs in the same period against much weaker competition (sea, oak, min, nym). In addition, if you look deeper you will see that there is no comparison between the two pitchers. Shields dominates Romero in k%, tERA, SIERA, FIP, xFIP and GB/FB. Finally, Romero has been horrible against lefties and TB had stacked their lineup with left handed hitters.

[No coincidences]

Ok, but only 16 of those runs were earned runs. Romero had 14 earned runs in the same period against much weaker competition (sea, oak, min, nym). In addition, if you look deeper you will see that there is no comparison between the two pitchers. Shields dominates Romero in k%, tERA, SIERA, FIP, xFIP and GB/FB. Finally, Romero has been horrible against lefties and TB had stacked their lineup with left handed hitters.

I'm not making an argument that Romero is a better pitcher than Shields so far this season. He hasn't been. Frankly, neither have been very good.

At even money, I'd take Shields. At +110 or higher, I think there's value in Romero. You don't. We'll see what happens.

[Vasco]

LTA, what do you like about Colorado tonight? Zambrano has pitched well and the Marlins are playing great baseball.

[BeardedTaco]

I'm not expecting a ton of runs or Shields to get shelled -- just personally think there's more value in Romero at this number than Shields.

Market seems to have disagreed with your +106 TOR bet (assuming your questionning the -113 TB bet of LTA). Although last time that happened you actually won with COL ov LAD

[Love The Action]

I'm not expecting a ton of runs or Shields to get shelled -- just personally think there's more value in Romero at this number than Shields.

The market disagrees about the value. There was more "value" in TB at -114 because it is going to close at or around -122. Consequently, if you played this last night in the +108 range (don't know if you even played it all), there was no value at that number. What did you decide, are you playing Toronto? Good luck with all your plays.

[No coincidences]

Market seems to have disagreed with your +106 TOR bet (assuming your questionning the -113 TB bet of LTA). Although last time that happened you actually won with COL ov LAD

I definitely didn't beat the closer with either the Jays or the Red Sox.

[No coincidences]

The market disagrees about the value. There was more "value" in TB at -114 because it is going to close at or around -122. Consequently, if you played this last night in the +108 range (don't know if you even played it all), there was no value at that number. What did you decide, are you playing Toronto? Good luck with all your plays.

First, I really don't like taking -110 to -125 home faves. It's like -1 or -2 home faves in basketball. Second, I actually had the line opening at +125/-135 in this game early yesterday afternoon before it adjusted down to where it was when Pinny and others posted it. I still think there's more value in Toronto in their current + range than the Rays where they're priced, but that's just going by what I have. We'll see.

[Love The Action]

I'm not making an argument that Romero is a better pitcher than Shields so far this season. He hasn't been. Frankly, neither have been very good.

At even money, I'd take Shields. At +110 or higher, I think there's value in Romero. You don't. We'll see what happens.

Hmmmm....I think Shields' 6-2 record with a 3.11 SIERA, 2.62 GB/FB and his all time best 8.45 k/9 show he is having a great year consistent or above his career averages. Romero on the other hand has seen a drop off in all of his numbers....

[No coincidences]

Hmmmm....I think Shields' 6-2 record with a 3.11 SIERA, 2.62 GB/FB and his all time best 8.45 k/9 show he is having a great year consistent or above his career averages. Romero on the other hand has seen a drop off in all of his numbers....

Stats aside, I've watched Shields pitch a few times and just don't like what I'm seeing. I know you basically write off a lot of surface numbers, but he hasn't been sharp at all recently and his propensity to give up the long ball is beyond evident. To call him "dominant" so far is a stretch to say the least in my book.

[Love The Action]

Stats aside, I've watched Shields pitch a few times and just don't like what I'm seeing. I know you basically write off a lot of surface numbers, but he hasn't been sharp at all recently and his propensity to give up the long ball is beyond evident. To call him "dominant" so far is a stretch to say the least in my book.

Semantics... He has been "very solid" or would you disagree with that adjective?

[Love The Action]

First, I really don't like taking -110 to -125 home faves. It's like -1 or -2 home faves in basketball. Second, I actually had the line opening at +125/-135 in this game early yesterday afternoon before it adjusted down to where it was when Pinny and others posted it. I still think there's more value in Toronto in their current + range than the Rays where they're priced, but that's just going by what I have. We'll see.

I don't understand those comments. The market dictates value not your opinion or my opinion.

[Love The Action]

LTA, what do you like about Colorado tonight? Zambrano has pitched well and the Marlins are playing great baseball.

Zambrano is way overpriced. I have Colorado set at +137 and we got +152. White has never faced Miami and actually has better advanced numbers than zambrano, albeit in a smaller sample. When you consider Colorado has a top ten offense versus righties while Miami is in the bottom ten and Colorado has a better bullpen, I think the rox are worthy of a play at such a great price. GL

[Vasco]

Thanks, just wanted to hear your reasoning. Hopefully Miami cools off today. Tough one last night the Rockies had some late inning opportunities. Helton called strike 3 with runner on third to end the game, ball appeared to be off the plate.

[No coincidences]

Semantics... He has been "very solid" or would you disagree with that adjective?

"Very solid" vs. "dominant" is semantics?

[No coincidences]

I don't understand those comments. The market dictates value not your opinion or my opinion.

The market isn't always right.