LTA's MLB Plays

[pacocn]

Athletics tried to come back, but they dug a deep hole
in the early innings, overall a tough day.

[Love The Action]

Wow horrible run this last week. I've lost over $7,000.

I've had to sell the dog that I bought my daughter, and couldn't afford to get her anything for her birthday. Thanks LTA...

Sounds like you are not going to win any father of the year awards Arty.....might want to go back to school and get a better job if $7K is going to break you.

If you are going to make a trolling post like that, at least make yourself look repectable and say you lost like $200K and had to sell the dog. By saying you went broke after losing $7K, you make yourself look like a broke, jerk of a father with no money and a family who hates him. A true loser in sports investing and in life. I really hope that is not true and you were just trolling, but if it is true then it makes sense why you are blaming me for your troubles. Losers always blame others for their lack of success so that would make sense in your case. Here's to hoping you turn your life around soon

[pacocn]

Arty, was that a rescue dog? If so,
who did it rescue?

[Redscot]

Good lord, some of my early leans have me . Cards, Detroit under (Yes that is A.J Burnett). Also looking at Miami, Col -1, Tex -1 and Baltimore. Overs in S.F. and Toronto intrigue me a bit at the moment. Let's put the last few days behind us and start the day with a clean slate and a clear head! GL LTA, interested in any thoughts you may have on the card.

[pacocn]

Arty, all joking aside there is a real nice piece on money management
techniques, written by fit in my "get on board" in the nba thread. You may
find it helpful.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/18/2012 Recap

1 - 4 = -4.3x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

89 - 90 - 12 =-4.9x

I have never experienced such a bad run like this in any market much less my best market. It's strange being in the red as that is also a first for me. Usually my bad runs merely result in my return of a portion of profit that had already been won. In this case, I am actually down my own money now. It will be good to use this as a learning experience and dig myself out. At some point, we will start getting some breaks. It's crazy how this business works sometimes....a one point loss in the nba, a late run blows the under by one, dodgers hit a 9th inning home run to beat the cards, etc. Just gotta weather the storm and keep fighting. Hard work will pull us through. Time to batten down the hatches and get back to where we belong. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Arty, all joking aside there is a real nice piece on money management
techniques, written by fit in my "get on board" in the nba thread. You may
find it helpful.

Trolls telling fairy tails don't care about money management.

[taxe91]

Good lord, some of my early leans have me . Cards, Detroit under (Yes that is A.J Burnett). Also looking at Miami, Col -1, Tex -1 and Baltimore. Overs in S.F. and Toronto intrigue me a bit at the moment. Let's put the last few days behind us and start the day with a clean slate and a clear head! GL LTA, interested in any thoughts you may have on the card.

any man with the guts to fade kershaw is a braver man than i. i like that tex -1 play though (depending on the juice) derek holland has settled into his groove nicely

[Love The Action]

red, one thing we know for sure, mets hitting against
lefties was not the major issue

Had the mets scored 15 we would have won!

[pacocn]

Had the mets scored 15 we would have won!

What would the Mets wrc+ had to have been to have a 20 percent chance of scoring 15 runs?
Just a ballpark figure will do Lta Standard deviation of +/- 1

[Redscot]

any man with the guts to fade kershaw is a braver man than i. i like that tex -1 play though (depending on the juice) derek holland has settled into his groove nicely

I don't know if I would call it guts Taxe . In all honestly I don't think i will end up playing it. If it got in the +140 range I would probably pull the trigger.

[pacocn]

Lets batten down those hatches again,
we will teach those hatches. (Bugs Bunny Circa 68)
Lets go get em Lta

[tonyp0387]

aren't you going to quit posting after the nba playoffs?

[hydrosmak]

aren't you going to quit posting after the nba playoffs?

Where did you get that idea?

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/19/2012

Play #1

White Sox/Cubs under (9)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Quite a bit of juice with the wind blowing out, but a good number nonetheless for this matchup and the wind is only at about 9 mph. I wanted to play the under yesterday at 9 with Samardizja and Humber with similar wind conditions and layed off. In this case, we have a better quality of pitchers, even if Danks is having a year to forget. I expect Danks to start pitching well with a reversion of numbers back to his career averages and the Cubs are not a great left handed hitting teams ranked bottom 5 in most significant categories. On the other hand, Dempster is having a great year by the numbers and I expect that to continue today against a Konerko-less White Sox lineup. The wind adds an element that I cannot account for in my model, but irrespective of that I have this game at 6.6. Even if you add a couple runs from the wind, I like getting this game at 5 in what is an intense rivalry that has seen the under cash time and again. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

aren't you going to quit posting after the nba playoffs?

At some point, but I'm not going out like this....

[Love The Action]

Looks like Pinny just opened at 8.5 on that Cubs game....my local just moved down too. I would wait and see if the over hits this up to 9 offshore.

[Redscot]

Looks like Pinny just opened at 8.5 on that Cubs game....my local just moved down too. I would wait and see if the over hits this up to 9 offshore.

Not sure if the upward movement has hit its apex yet, but I just got this at 9 -120 at 5dimes for those who were waiting for it.

[Arty]

I kind of overreacted out of frustration and I apologize.

The dog was a Japanese Akita. My daughter loved her, but I was forced to sell her as money was extremely thin and I needed to pay the bills. (Got about 4K though because of the rarity of the breed)

Good luck tonight LTA.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/19/2012

Play #1

White Sox/Cubs under (9)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Quite a bit of juice with the wind blowing out, but a good number nonetheless for this matchup and the wind is only at about 9 mph. I wanted to play the under yesterday at 9 with Samardizja and Humber with similar wind conditions and layed off. In this case, we have a better quality of pitchers, even if Danks is having a year to forget. I expect Danks to start pitching well with a reversion of numbers back to his career averages and the Cubs are not a great left handed hitting teams ranked bottom 5 in most significant categories. On the other hand, Dempster is having a great year by the numbers and I expect that to continue today against a Konerko-less White Sox lineup. The wind adds an element that I cannot account for in my model, but irrespective of that I have this game at 6.6. Even if you add a couple runs from the wind, I like getting this game at 5 in what is an intense rivalry that has seen the under cash time and again. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Marlins/Indians under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Sanchez versus Gomez with both pitchers having unfamiliarity on their side and the wind blowing in from center at 12 mph. The ump is Angel Hernandez which is not a bad assignment and both lineups can be a bit inconsistent at times. I love Sanchez in this spot and almost played the Marlins at -105ish, but I think the under is the better play in this spot. I have this game set at 6.5 even and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

I kind of overreacted out of frustration and I apologize.

The dog was a Japanese Akita. My daughter loved her, but I was forced to sell her as money was extremely thin and I needed to pay the bills. (Got about 4K though because of the rarity of the breed)

Good luck tonight LTA.

I am very sorry to hear that....God bless.

Please think long and hard about how you approach this stuff because you should never risk 1 cent that you and your family cannot afford to lose. That is the #1 rule and can never be broken. Never make your family suffer.

[BiffTFinancial]

Play #2

Marlins/Indians under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Sanchez versus Gomez with both pitchers having unfamiliarity on their side and the wind blowing in from center at 12 mph. The ump is Angel Hernandez which is not a bad assignment and both lineups can be a bit inconsistent at times. I love Sanchez in this spot and almost played the Marlins at -105ish, but I think the under is the better play in this spot. I have this game set at 6.5 even and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

will likely be on this under LTA. one additional factor is that Jacobs Field is one of those fields that can have very bad shadows in a game with a 4 pm start. incredibly sunny today should make for more shadows and help this play. as you correctly note, we can also expect a bit of an under wind. BOL today LTA.

[CHAZ]

GL today LTA! Keep up the hard work. Baseball season is such a long grind.

[Catchn_Picks]

Nice to get back on the winning under train LTA... congrats.

[BiffTFinancial]

will likely be on this under LTA. one additional factor is that Jacobs Field is one of those fields that can have very bad shadows in a game with a 4 pm start. incredibly sunny today should make for more shadows and help this play. as you correctly note, we can also expect a bit of an under wind. BOL today LTA.

thanks, Catchn_Picks! nice call, LTA! never in doubt. only 2 runs early, and once the shadows set in in bottom of 6th, no offense whatsoever.

worth noting that Detroit also affected by shadows, but differently and later as home plate is positioned differently in Detroit than in Cleveland. in Detroit, shadows really came into play in bottom of 7th and 8th inning. as you've correctly noted in past, LTA, key is that the weather be sunny for the under effect of shadows. very sunny in both Cleveland and Detroit today.

[Catchn_Picks]

thanks, Catchn_Picks! nice call, LTA! never in doubt. only 2 runs early, and once the shadows set in in bottom of 6th, no offense whatsoever.

worth noting that Detroit also affected by shadows, but differently and later as home plate is positioned differently in Detroit than in Cleveland. in Detroit, shadows really came into play in bottom of 7th and 8th inning. as you've correctly noted in past, LTA, key is that the weather be sunny for the under effect of shadows. very sunny in both Cleveland and Detroit today.

The shadows play is still really underrated except in the playoffs when the start times are weird for TV. There is real money to be made on sunny days in certain ball parks. Looks like you have got a bit of a specialty going.

BOL always.

[BiffTFinancial]

The shadows play is still really underrated except in the playoffs when the start times are weird for TV. There is real money to be made on sunny days in certain ball parks. Looks like you have got a bit of a specialty going.

BOL always.

Well, I did today. Had some luck too. Worth noting that interleague meant more 4pm games. BOL to you too. LTA shared his insight on shadows with me last year, glad I apparently learned something.

[Catchn_Picks]

Anyone notice how the well the AL is doing versus the NL yesterday and today so far?

You could bet it blindly and do very well.

[Smutbucket]

the sun also moves north and south depending on the time of year /location

[Catchn_Picks]

the sun also moves north and south depending on the time of year /location

Do you think somewhere a website exists that can show the sun's positioning on any given sunny day game?

[No coincidences]

Unreal LTA. Just unreal.

[Catchn_Picks]

Cubs jack two two-run home runs in the ninth all with two outs to destroy yet another under.

Just pathetic bullpens surround the league.

Horrible pitchers abound.

[jayson311]

Just keep swimming

[Vinnie Paz]

Oh come the fukccc on

Wait all the way till bottom 9 to decide to put up some runs. Fuking terrible.

[dlunc3]

that was just as bad as pushing on the phills -1 two nights ago when they were up 8-3 in the 9th with two outs...

how does this nonsense keep happening