LTA's MLB Plays

[J.M. Disciple]

Atari is doing bad as of late. MLB has been a bit unpredictable as of late, but RUNs come and go. Also I wasn't talking to you slickrick so please do not jump in the conversation.

Pretty much everyone is losing right now....

On3 Losing
Atari Losing
system integrity losing.

Theres your update slickrick. Care to go to any of the threads and make fun of them as well?

Let this be the end of it so there is not another big b1tch fit in this thread as well. Some people just dont know how to handle losing days.


Good Luck

PS
Good luck LTA, you handle the comment very professional.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/18/2012

Play #1

Cardinals ML (-115) 2x (Locked)

I am rolling with another 2x play on the Cardinals. We faded a lefty in the first 2x on the Cards and cashed over MBaum and we are going to fade another lefty in Lilly. Even though he has not pitched well, his stats pale in comparison to Lynn who has the better K%, GB/FB, SwStr%, FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA by a large margin. When you consider that the Cards are the best left handed hitting lineup in the league and you can see why this play takes shape. Without Kemp, I just don't see the Dodgers being able to keep up with the Cards in this game. I have the Cardinals set at -127 giving us 12 cents of value. I am rolling with the Cardinals for 2x. Good luck.

Play #2

Reds ML (+129) 1x (Locked)

I'm not in the business of fading the bombers, especially when they have lost three games in a row (although that could indicate they are in a funk, it could also indicate they are about to explode). However, in this game, you have a decided starting pitching advantage with Arroyo against Pettite. Arroyo is having a resurgent year with a WAR already at .9 and a FIP, xFIP and SIERA all between 3.3 and 3.6. When you consider he has been relatively "unlucky" with a .333 BABIP and those numbers become a bit more impressive. On offense, the Reds are always one of the better hitting teams against lefties and that is no different this season where they rank top 8 in most statistically significant advanced categories. I should have followed my lean and faded Pettite in his first start and I don't want to regret it by not fading him in this start. When you consider that Arroyo has actually fared reasonably well against this Yanks lineup over 126 at bats by limiting them to a .250 BAA and .700ish OPS and I think the Reds become even more interesting. The "public" will be pounding the Yanks as usual which gives us a great price here and nice value. I have the Reds set at +113 and we're getting +129, so that is too much value to pass up and I am rolling with the Reds for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Mets ML (+140) 1x (Locked)

I should have locked this play in at +150 when we were discussing it earlier, but it was not until I was able to look more in-depth that this became a play. There has always been value on the Mets as I have them set at +131, however, my concern was the lefty/righty advantage that Romero would have considering the Mets are generally better against righties. Nevertheless, once I looked more closely at Romero, it became clear that his numbers are poor when facing lefties. This means that Romero has a reverse platoon split that is one of the worst in the league when you consider his FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA are on average a full point worse against lefties than righties. That's not all as we also see he strikes out lefties less and throws more balls to them as well. As far as Niese, he has much better advanced numbers than Romero and will not have to face Lawrie. All in all, I missed out on ten cents in value by waiting but I still expect this to close in the low +130's and we are still getting a good price at +140 and I am rolling with the Mets for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Braves/Devil Rays under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I expect the price on the under to get more expensive as the day progresses so I'm jumping on it now. We have two very solid SP's who can strike you out and get crucial ground ball outs in a pitchers park with who I am hoping is Layne behind the plate. Both offenses are very good but with limited history with these pitchers that highlights the pitchers' success. I have this game set at 6.02 and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Angels -1RL (-127) 1x (Locked)

I contemplated laying the -160 but will reduce the risk with the -1RL and trust the LA bats to warm up against such an inferior pitcher as Suppan. I think this should be nice day for Pujols considering his .997 career OPS against Suppan in 42 at bats. While Suppan has actually pitched effectively I. His three starts this season, the advanced numbers say he is getting by with smoke and mirrors considering FIP, xFIP and SIERA all over 4 and closer to 4.4. Contrast that with Weaver who is averaging around 3.1in those same categories. Despite their struggles, LA has the better hitters and fielding while the bullpens are negligible. At worst, I think we push and I am rolling with the Angels on the -1RL for 1x. Good luck.

[Vasco]

LTA, I'm popping the question tonight. Any advice? LOL. Hopefully when I get home we have some MLB wins under our belt. Could make the night even more memorable!

[chief42]

LTA, I'm popping the question tonight. Any advice? LOL. Hopefully when I get home we have some MLB wins under our belt. Could make the night even more memorable!

Make it memorable! Gl!

[Redscot]

LTA, I'm popping the question tonight. Any advice? LOL. Hopefully when I get home we have some MLB wins under our belt. Could make the night even more memorable!

Don't worry about the games, they are the least of your troubles going forward . J/K, Best of luck Vasco , hope it is the start of a long and fruitful union.

[SlickRick1382]

Atari is doing bad as of late. MLB has been a bit unpredictable as of late, but RUNs come and go. Also I wasn't talking to you slickrick so please do not jump in the conversation.

Pretty much everyone is losing right now....

On3 Losing
Atari Losing
system integrity losing.

Theres your update slickrick. Care to go to any of the threads and make fun of them as well?

Let this be the end of it so there is not another big b1tch fit in this thread as well. Some people just dont know how to handle losing days.


Good Luck

PS
Good luck LTA, you handle the comment very professional.

You have a lot of nerve. First off, I could care less if you were addressing me or not I can chime in as I see fit especially when it's someone like you. Secondly I never went into anyone's thread to make fun of anyone. You're the one posting here calling people out with disrespectful comments.

You're another WVU9494. I'll leave you two alone. You both seem to suffer from some bipolar disease .... You're in here running your mouth one minute and then apologetic the next. I don't get it. The only thing I can compare it to is kids when they throw temper tantrums which leads me to believe you both are young teenagers who can't handle it ...

Best of luck to you the rest of the season. Unless you address me personally or start posting in this thread running your mouth, this will be the last time I address you.

[SlickRick1382]

LTA, I'm popping the question tonight. Any advice? LOL. Hopefully when I get home we have some MLB wins under our belt. Could make the night even more memorable!

CONGRATS BRO !!!!!!!

That's awesome to hear and I wish you a memorable night. Enjoy the day and don't worry about MLB. When you come back tomorrow to let us know how it went we will be + units =)

Let me know how it went. Popping the question in July when we're with her father's side of the family. (Gotta be old fashioned and get the nod from the old man, you know how it is)

[JM92]

Dem some bad lines JM. +158 and +138 respectively at 5dimes right now.

yeah yeah I know but I got a 250€ bonus at this bookie so I have to play it. 1 unit for me is 10€ so as you can see this is a lot of dough lol.

I just realized lta got a bad line with the reds, makes sense now.

GL guys!

[Redscot]

CONGRATS BRO !!!!!!!

That's awesome to hear and I wish you a memorable night. Enjoy the day and don't worry about MLB. When you come back tomorrow to let us know how it went we will be + units =)

Let me know how it went. Popping the question in July when we're with her father's side of the family. (Gotta be old fashioned and get the nod from the old man, you know how it is)

I am a firm believer in showing pop dukes respect, well done SlickRick

[Love The Action]

LTA, I'm popping the question tonight. Any advice? LOL. Hopefully when I get home we have some MLB wins under our belt. Could make the night even more memorable!

Holy shit....congrats!!! Best decision I ever made. Marriage is all about partnership, compromise patience, understanding and love. My wife is my best friend and lets me do what i want because we trust each other. Some of my friends keep everything from their wives and in turn their wives are distrustful and always giving them a hard time. Be open, honest and trusting with your wife and she will do the same which will lead to a long, happy and fullfilling partnership. My only other advice would be NOT to check the scores while proposing lol. Good luck buddy! Very happy for you....

[Redscot]

yeah yeah I know but I got a 250€ bonus at this bookie so I have to play it. 1 unit for me is 10€ so as you can see this is a lot of dough lol.

I just realized lta got a bad line with the reds, makes sense now.

GL guys!

It's all good JM, to me bet size is irrelevant, we are all in it to win it. That being said there were some interesting breakdowns in LTA's thread recently (scroll back a couple of pages) regarding pricing and it's value in units for a season. That bonus of 250 with your unit size is probably only worth about 7 cents(rough calculation here) per play or so over a 1,000 bet baseball season. If he is jobbing you for 10 cents+ consistently he's coming out ahead. Just throwing this out there because it is something I am coming to grips with too recently....have pretty much eliminated my local except for bet's where he gives me fair lines.

[Redscot]

Holy shit....congrats!!! Best decision I ever made. Marriage is all about partnership, compromise patience, understanding and love. My wife is my best friend and lets me do what i want because we trust each other. Some of my friends keep everything from their wives and in turn their wives are distrustful and always giving them a hard time. Be open, honest and trusting with your wife and she will do the same which will lead to a long, happy and fullfilling partnership. My only other advice would be NOT to check the scores while proposing lol. Good luck buddy! Very happy for you....

I totally second this part, too many dudes I know try to keep too much from their wives. Women have better intuition then we do, they KNOW. If you are honest you CAN have your cake and eat it too....not saying you gotta share everything ......

[SlickRick1382]

I am a firm believer in showing pop dukes respect, well done SlickRick

You already know Red, should be a prerequisite for anyone popping the question. Just tough since her pops lives in Ecuador so taking advantage and going on vacation for two weeks down there and popping it while I'm in Ecuador so her father's side of the family can take part. (Going to be a bitch to have the ring and the necklace I got her, on me for almost 10 days before I pop it. I'll probably be paranoid and have that in my pocket at all times, lmao)

[JM92]

It's all good JM, to me bet size is irrelevant, we are all in it to win it. That being said there were some interesting breakdowns in LTA's thread recently (scroll back a couple of pages) regarding pricing and it's value in units for a season. That bonus of 250 with your unit size is probably only worth about 7 cents(rough calculation here) per play or so over a 1,000 bet baseball season. If he is jobbing you for 10 cents+ consistently he's coming out ahead. Just throwing this out there because it is something I am coming to grips with too recently....have pretty much eliminated my local except for bet's where he gives me fair lines.

I usually don't read this thread as I dont know anything about baseball and honestly have no interest in finding out, as I really can't withstand the game. But I think I missed on the explanation... this 250€ were basically given out to me after winning a contest, all I need to do is complete the 3x rollover and I can withdraw the money. So, I can't really give a damn about the bad odds and extra juice (yes, usually about 5-6 cents in MLB, nba is - 113 instead of -110). I know have 236€ there and Im only 50€ away from completing the rollover. If I have a good night tonight, by tommorow when I finally am able to withdraw the money, I will have 250€ basically given out to me for free which I will happily had to my bankroll at bet365 where I am not getting juiced out.

[Redscot]

I usually don't read this thread as I dont know anything about baseball and honestly have no interest in finding out, as I really can't withstand the game. But I think I missed on the explanation... this 250€ were basically given out to me after winning a contest, all I need to do is complete the 3x rollover and I can withdraw the money. So, I can't really give a damn about the bad odds and extra juice (yes, usually about 5-6 cents in MLB, nba is - 113 instead of -110). I know have 236€ there and Im only 50€ away from completing the rollover. If I have a good night tonight, by tommorow when I finally am able to withdraw the money, I will have 250€ basically given out to me for free which I will happily had to my bankroll at bet365 where I am not getting juiced out.

. Let's hope you have that good night

[Redscot]

Grrrrr. Niese picked a fine time for his first bad outing......Never know, Mets have been a resilient bunch thus far......lets get some runs.

[JM92]

. Let's hope you have that good night

GL to you as well. And congratulations to vasco on his news

[TC Woods]

Grrrrr. Niese picked a fine time for his first bad outing......Never know, Mets have been a resilient bunch thus far......lets get some runs.

Niese

[Catchn_Picks]

http://sportsinvesting.ca/should-you-bet-the-1-run-line-on-mlb-games/

Pretty good article on the advantages of -1 lines on favorites in baseball.

[G-manFan]

Looks like the Mets have become our new Jazz.

[HarbaughTilting]

Go Cardinals!

[Arty]

Wow horrible run this last week. I've lost over $7,000.

I've had to sell the dog that I bought my daughter, and couldn't afford to get her anything for her birthday. Thanks LTA...

[aussieH]

Wow horrible run this last week. I've lost over $7,000.

I've had to sell the dog that I bought my daughter, and couldn't afford to get her anything for her birthday. Thanks LTA...

If you cannot afford to lose $7,000 then do not bet to begin with. LTA did not ask you to follow him or bet such large amounts.

[HarbaughTilting]

Let's just ignore people that moan about dollar figures. They're usually not super-sharp...

[SlickRick1382]

So we get a miracle homer to extend the game and then salas walks home the winning run on 4 straight pitches..... Cool

[daddyv]

****!!! there goes the cards play as well...horrible day again..really hope u can turn it around soon man

[Smutbucket]

redscot, niese has a real bad performace about 2 weeks ago too, I remeber cuz I had a bunch of money on mets, I actually learned from it though and this time bet OVER in the game today, niese is garbage, just watching that game confirmed my suspicions that his "good outing" were nothing more than poor batting. this is something we need to keep an eye out for it seems to be happening a lot this year .i.e. bad pitchers being unnoticed bc of poor batting failure to capitalize.

[taxe91]

Wow horrible run this last week. I've lost over $7,000.

I've had to sell the dog that I bought my daughter, and couldn't afford to get her anything for her birthday. Thanks LTA...

option 1: stop being a poor troll

option 2 (to be referred to if option 1 does not apply): man up and get your sh*t together

[Chili_Powder]

Wow horrible run this last week. I've lost over $7,000.

I've had to sell the dog that I bought my daughter, and couldn't afford to get her anything for her birthday. Thanks LTA...

I don't tail anyone, but I come into this thread a lot to read your NBA analysis and other tidbits on capping and money management.

Keep up the good work LTA. Even the best go through losing streaks. And that applies for pretty much every profession: poker players, stock traders, etc... Don't let these clowns get to you LTA; they probably come in here and blindly tail a few picks here and there, and then proceed to troll/rage when they lose.[

The second quote is yours from less than two months ago. Seriously dude, if you're going to gamble you need to maintain some semblance of staying on an even keel.

[iMpega]

Wow horrible run this last week. I've lost over $7,000.

I've had to sell the dog that I bought my daughter, and couldn't afford to get her anything for her birthday. Thanks LTA...

How much you got for the dog?

[Redscot]

redscot, niese has a real bad performace about 2 weeks ago too, I remeber cuz I had a bunch of money on mets, I actually learned from it though and this time bet OVER in the game today, niese is garbage, just watching that game confirmed my suspicions that his "good outing" were nothing more than poor batting. this is something we need to keep an eye out for it seems to be happening a lot this year .i.e. bad pitchers being unnoticed bc of poor batting failure to capitalize.

Your right, against Houston, glad you cashed on the over. I disagree that Niese is garbage though. He certainly was trash last night, but he had a solid season last year and I believe he will improve on those numbers this year. Afterall, he has a new nose! Well, here's hoping to a rebound today and some positive momentum.

[taxe91]

is it just me or are a lot of teams getting very juiced today? moreso than usual.. i was very eager to play the brew crew against the twins but sunk in my seat to see them at -175.

wanted to fade aj burnett in detroit too but detroit is juiced to -167.

tossing up between playing a -1 RL or sitting it out.

looking forward for your take on the card lta

[pacocn]

red, one thing we know for sure, mets hitting against
lefties was not the major issue

[Redscot]

red, one thing we know for sure, mets hitting against
lefties was not the major issue

. That was the least of our worries yesterday. How about Petite shutting out the Reds in Yankee stadium, ouch, Arroyo did his job. Just an unbelievable run right now, but it happens. Baseball more than any other sport is a grind,and that is LTA's specialty, I have confidence he'll be back in black in short order.

[pacocn]

. That was the least of our worries yesterday. How about Petite shutting out the Reds in Yankee stadium, ouch, Arroyo did his job. Just an unbelievable run right now, but it happens. Baseball more than any other sport is a grind,and that is LTA's specialty, I have confidence he'll be back in black in short order.

I second that, Lta will come back with a vengence and spank these books.