4 runs, but only 2 earned in the Yanks game that is only in the 3rd inning. Pirates score two off Strasburg, but only one earned. It's extremely tough to overcome such blunders when we have such a small margin of error with these wagers. When negative variance hits, all the errors seem to go against you and vice versa when you are rolling good.
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And it takes Correia a whole 7 pitches to retire the side in the top of the 5th. Nice answer to the Pirates runs.
Oy vey, time to hit some dinner and relax for the night with the fam. Forget about this nonsense. Good luckComment -
Meant to include the error for the Nationals as well. I'm on the Rangers just as a doubleheader fade Winner of Game 1.
Couldn't agree with you more. We rarely get that type of variance in our favor thought, or at least it feels that way to me. Always seems to go against us. Especially as of late. Almost like when it rains, it pours.
Fortunately you've been spot on with your capping which eases some of the pain but I can only imagine where we'd stand without the string of bad luck .... Can't wait to get us paid back.
Thankfully pitching is settling back in and we got it at 8 rather than the 7.5 that it closed at so a few scoreless innings and we're golden ...
Nationals also adding some runs in the 6th....Comment -
Serious question --- if you're playing games when your model shows only 4 cents of value, are the majority of your plays within 3 cents of every line? If so, with the 1-5 cents of movement from open to close on just about every game, wouldn't that put every game in a playable situation?Comment -
From what I've seen his cutoff is usually a full run for totals and about 10 cents for sides. Personally I didnt pay attention to the tigers bet since I already locked in -105 but with that being said when he posted "four cents" of value I too was a bit confused. Line is up to -127 now tho so it still seems like a good bet.Comment -
Run in the top of the ninth in the Nat game helped...now just need to close em out!Comment -
on the Nationals game!
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Run at the top of the 9th to get us the win rather than another push (guess variance is giving us one back)
And 3 outs away from still winning the Yankees / Tampa Bay bet. Go figure ...Comment -
Jeter can't make an infield throw to open the ninth. Come on gang...shut them down.Comment -
The error in the bottom of the ninth certainly got the heart racing.
Anyway, nice hit gents.Comment -
Bookies were loaded with under money on NYY/TB. Line moved from 8 to 7.5. Ninth inning run in the top of the ninth was a gift without any real defense.
Those who bet early pushed...the rest who bet under lost and the books made out well.
NYY you suck!Comment -
Good question. We don't get enough of this type of discussion on the boards.
The short answer is no. The majority of my plays are not made "within 3 cents of every line." Usually, my model spots variances of 10 cents or more (i.e. the "value") between my fair line and the early numbers which first become available to me when the final game of the day commences.
However, I have no set parameters as to the amount of "value" between my fair line and the widely available number at the time of wagering. If I think a play is worth it for one reason or another or otherwise +EV, I will pull the trigger. I use my model to identify value and predict line movement and it has been proven to be successful in achieving those goals at a very high rate (over 70%) over a large sample (over 1,000 plays). However, that is but the first step in my overall capping process. Once the value is identified, I then review other factors that are not included in my model. If I feel a play is worth playing after a full review, I won't hesitate to do that even if it means that play is only a few cents below my projections.
In this case, even though I had wanted to bet Detroit at -107 when I went to bed last night, I had not finished fully capping the game. Once I finished and I was still able to get -117, I felt that was still a good number which was 4 cents below my number of -121. It closed at -132, so I beat the closer by 15 cents and it turned out to be a long term winning play.Comment -
I said there was "four cents" of value, because I bought the Tigers at -117, but my model had them at -121. The variance between the number I lock in and my fair line represents the value in the play. In this case, that value was 4 cents. As it turns out, it was a much better play than 4 cents considering I beat the closer by 15 cents.Comment -
Talk about luck, lol. I went out for coffee knowing the Nats won only to come back to that push. Rather a push than a loss but variance refuses to give us two in a row. It didn't wait long in taking that one back.
Regardless, you've been making great plays all around based on what the market is closing. That's a feat in of itself that the lot of us would be unable to do on a consistent basis, so mad props for that
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not a bad inning for Det... you have been waiting for that crooked number for a while now from this team.. congrats
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MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/11/2012
Play #1
Astros ML (+130) 1x (Locked)
Here's a play where most people may want to back McDonald based on his solid year in terms of ERA. However, I like Norris in this spot. Neither guy is going to be very efficient as you can expect no more 6 and a rare 7 innings out of either guy, however, Norris misses more bats as evidenced by his 11.1% SwStr% to that of McDonald's 8.9%. When you consider that Norris also has the better GB/FB by .20 with an almost identical SIERA, I am going to give the advantage to Norris. I like Houston's offense a lot better than that of the Pirates and they also have the better bullpen in a lot of categories. I have Houston set at +113 giving us 14 cents of "value" in this one and I am rolling with the Astros for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
Play #2
Nationals ML (-102) 1x (Locked)
No reason not to back Gio in this spot, especially with Leake carrying such dreadful advanced numbers. While I recognize that the Reds hit lefties well and I generally look to back the when facing a left, in this case Gio is at the top of this game right now. The Nationals have fared well against Leake and there's no reason they can't put up four or more tomorrow. I have the Nationals set at -113 in this game giving us just over 10 cents of value and I am rolling with the Nationals for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
Play #3
Braves/Cardinals under (8)(-115) 1x (Locked)
This is a risky one considering how great these offenses are playing this year, but the Braves have not fared well against upper echelon lefties like Garcia and I think Minor is in a nice bounce back spot after having to pitch in the thin air of Colorado. It's never a bad idea to back a solid pitcher after a shelacking at Coors for that bounce back factor and I like Minor in this sport. The wind will not be a factor and I expect this one to drop to 7.5 by late morning. I have this game set at 7.06 and it's going to take a final score of 9 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
Play #4
Cubs ML (-107) 1x (Locked)
Wolf is not having a good year and he's always been on my fade list for one reason or the other. Garza is having a great season, despite missing his last start with the flu. The Cubs are actually playing solid baseball right now and if it was not for their bullpen, they could be .500. As it is, I expect Garza to pitch deep into this game based on his prior mastery over the Brewers and the Cubs' need for him to eat up innings. I think the Cubs keep the momentum going for this game and beat up on Wolf who is not having a good statistical season. I have the Cubs set at at -114 giving us seven cents of value and I am rolling with Chicago for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
LTA, really quality insight right here, sir!
appreciate your analysis of advanced statistics.
you're money! thanks, again! good luck!Comment -
I'm Leaning LTA! What do you think?
MLB 05/11 ACTION
COL@LAD Over 7.5
LAA@TEX Over 8.5
TOR@MIN Under 9Comment -
MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/10/2012 Recap
2 - 0 -1 = +2x
MLB 2012 Regular Season
77 - 61 - 11 = +12.04x
A tough push with the Yanks under giving us 11 pushes on the year already. Otherwise a nice night that was sorely needed. Good luck on Friday.Comment -
The way I look at the Yankees game is we beat the closing number and avoided the loss.
BOL with your plays tomorrow
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Thanks for the first two picks LTA keep em comingComment -
Like the early plays LTA, line has already moved in your favor in all. If you have the time would like your thoughts on the following:
- Phillies with a wrc+ of like 76 against LHP, Richard extreme GB pitcher helps in Citizens bank, Worley certainly capable of shutting down the Pad's....yet 8 1/2?
- Tough not to bite on Felix think this breaks the +130 mark? Over getting juiced but doubt we see it get to 8, would be all over that.
- Paulino - What to do....what to do. Tempted on the under, but if I do will wait till it hits 8, he is combustible don't want that much juice......also tempted on the Royals...hmmmmm.
- Does Detroit snap out of their funk? They have struggled against LHP, and Porcello should be able to handle Oakland's weak lineup.Comment -
i was looking into the Phillies game as well. Figuring the Padres was be the perfect storm for them to get out of their funk. They have 3 pitchers capable of going 8 thus keeping their horrible middle relief from blowing the game for us and with a struggling Pads O. they should be able to produce enough runs to slide one out. Juice is heavy though =(Comment -
Play #5
Padres ML (+169) 1x (Locked)
Once the Pads hit +169, I really had no choice but to play them considering that is 23 cents more than what my fair line suggests. I have the Padres set at +146 and I just don't see why the Phillies are so overpriced. While Worley has generally produced better than Richard, the lefty was actually the more respected prospect and has not pitched poorly this season. I expect a quality start out of Richard at the very least. In addition, we know all too well the problems with the Philly bullpen as that bullpen alone has cost us over 7x in profit this season. Offensively, neither team is hitting that well but Philly seems to be pressing more than SD. Philly was expected to have another great season, while SD was not expected to do anything. Consequently, Philly is feeling the pressure while the young Pads are learning every day and getting better. This play is all about the value because there is no way the Phillies should be priced over -160 and yet they are currently around -180. I have the Padres set at +146 giving us 23 cents of value at this number and I am rolling with the San Diego for 1x. Good luck.Comment
