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  • wilfor1
    SBR High Roller
    • 09-06-10
    • 129

    #4831
    Very good call lta on both bets. Well done !
    Comment
    • Love The Action
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 11-08-10
      • 10952

      #4832
      Originally posted by Love The Action
      MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/19/11

      Play #1

      Cardinals ML (-117) 1x (Locked)


      I dont have much time for a writeup, so I will just give you the basics. I dont think this price gets any better, so I'm locking it now. I set the Cardinals as -129 favorites and will jump on the value of the home team in this spot. This game is played under NL rules, so you take a bat out of the rangers lineup which is an advantage for the cardinals. Other than the day he pitched on three days rest Carp has been sharper than Wilson throughout the playoffs. In addition, Wilson will be facing a right handed lineup and his platoon splits show he struggled more against righties than lefties. On the other side, Carp will also be facing mostly righties against texas (other than hamilton and murphy) and we all know Carp fares very well against righties. Both offenses are formidable and both bullpens solid, so with the Cards playing at home with the better pitcher at a cheap price, I am rolling with the Cardinals for 1x. Good luck.

      Play #2

      Rangers/Cards under (7.5)(+100) 2x (Locked)


      Starting to move, but you can still get plus odds at Legends and similar books. No time for writeups. Back later with possible addition to cards ml or possible parlay. Good luck!

      ACTION PARLAY

      Cards ML (-125)/Under (7.5)(-115) Pays 2.6x for every 1x risked

      The parlay does not count for the record, but I love both plays so I'm going to go for it. Good luck!
      Just a note for my own personal records, I had the under at even money. I just noticed that I did not post my actual price for that game, so I fixed it above.
      Comment
      • No coincidences
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 01-18-10
        • 76300

        #4833
        Nice work LTA. Under was never in doubt. I'd say the game was a toss-up, but that'd be a bitter, angry comment so I'll refrain.
        Comment
        • DrStale
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 12-07-08
          • 9692

          #4834
          Ha, we disagreed and both cashed. Nice work.
          Originally posted by Dark Horse
          If with religion you mean belief system, your belief system is your religion. Again, it matters not what it is. You believe in it, you are loyal to it, would defend it, and yet have no proof of it, other than that, at one point or another, you chose to believe in it. Self-hypnosis. What if there were a snapping of fingers that broke the hypnosis?
          Comment
          • Love The Action
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 11-08-10
            • 10952

            #4835
            Originally posted by No coincidences
            Nice work LTA. Under was never in doubt. I'd say the game was a toss-up, but that'd be a bitter, angry comment so I'll refrain.


            Let's talk about game 2....thoughts?
            Comment
            • Love The Action
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 11-08-10
              • 10952

              #4836
              Well I didn't have time to work on tomorrow's game yet and the money is coming in fast and furious on Texas. All the way up to -113. I could have gotten +103 yesterday and I'm kicking myself for not working on this game earlier if it turns out I would have taken Texas.
              Comment
              • pacocn
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 07-05-10
                • 12934

                #4837
                Originally posted by No coincidences
                Nice work LTA. Under was never in doubt. I'd say the game was a toss-up, but that'd be a bitter, angry comment so I'll refrain.
                Where was the refrain?
                Comment
                • pacocn
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 07-05-10
                  • 12934

                  #4838
                  Lta, i like tex for the series
                  Comment
                  • Love The Action
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 11-08-10
                    • 10952

                    #4839
                    Originally posted by Redscot
                    Nice....Great start to the World Series.
                    Originally posted by mdlove3081
                    LTA, I got to say thanks for this play tonight! I was really leaning towards the cards and the under. Your picks pushed me over the edge. Put down 2 units for a nice little payday.
                    Originally posted by Louisvillekid1
                    nice hit LTA,
                    Originally posted by hawley
                    Originally posted by wilfor1
                    Very good call lta on both bets. Well done !
                    Originally posted by pacocn
                    lta, nice work
                    Originally posted by DrStale
                    Ha, we disagreed and both cashed. Nice work.
                    Thanks fellas

                    So what do you guys think about game 2?
                    Comment
                    • Love The Action
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 11-08-10
                      • 10952

                      #4840
                      Carpenter is now tied for the most postseason win in history with 8...that stat alone make all his detractors look stupid. Gotta love Carp!
                      Comment
                      • Love The Action
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 11-08-10
                        • 10952

                        #4841
                        Originally posted by pacocn
                        Lta, i like tex for the series
                        I'm not big on betting series, only when I think there is great arb opportunities. This was a great opportunity, but I did not feel comfortable being on St. Louis if they lost the first game because they might not make it out of Texas in that case. Tomorrow is a huge game. If Texas wins, the same rules apply and the series might not go back to St. Louis so the price will go back up to the -150 range. That's why you should take them now around +115 if you still like them. If Texas loses, that changes things considerably. I think the books would have to completely switch positions from the first game and install Texas at the +140 or +150 range. Fun stuff
                        Comment
                        • Love The Action
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 11-08-10
                          • 10952

                          #4842
                          MLB Final Numbers for Regular Season 2011

                          418 - 378 = +38.03x

                          MLB 2011 Playoff Recap 10/19/11

                          2 - 0 = +3x


                          A great game for Carpenter, just like we thought. Carp is just a great competitor. We beat the closer considerably on both plays and we cashed. Plus, I ended up hitting that parlay which worked out quite well for my overall BR. Can't get any better than that.

                          MLB 2011 Playoffs

                          16 - 9 = +8.182x

                          Onto game 2...
                          Comment
                          • No coincidences
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 01-18-10
                            • 76300

                            #4843
                            Originally posted by Love The Action
                            I'm not big on betting series, only when I think there is great arb opportunities. This was a great opportunity, but I did not feel comfortable being on St. Louis if they lost the first game because they might not make it out of Texas in that case. Tomorrow is a huge game. If Texas wins, the same rules apply and the series might not go back to St. Louis so the price will go back up to the -150 range. That's why you should take them now around +115 if you still like them. If Texas loses, that changes things considerably. I think the books would have to completely switch positions from the first game and install Texas at the +140 or +150 range. Fun stuff
                            I would think they'd be more than +140 or +150 if they got down 2-0.
                            Comment
                            • Love The Action
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 11-08-10
                              • 10952

                              #4844
                              Redscot - thoughts on garcia tonight?

                              As far as the total goes, I think we can trust Lewis....what about Garcia?
                              Comment
                              • Redscot
                                SBR MVP
                                • 05-16-11
                                • 2571

                                #4845
                                Originally posted by Love The Action
                                Redscot - thoughts on garcia tonight?

                                As far as the total goes, I think we can trust Lewis....what about Garcia?
                                Gotta figure Garcia gives you 5 good innings at home. Texas batters have no familiarity with him. If we have similar conditions as last night and he keeps the ball down, would be hard to imagine him giving up more than 3 in 5 frames.....then onto Larussaville and the pen. Lewis too, should benefit from the ballpark and conditions. Cardinals have seen very little of him as well. However, any slight variation in that wind (blowing out in any way) and Lewis could be a BIG risk. Gibson behind the plate is a positive.....
                                Last edited by Redscot; 10-20-11, 07:11 AM.
                                Comment
                                • Redscot
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 05-16-11
                                  • 2571

                                  #4846
                                  Originally posted by Love The Action
                                  Carpenter is now tied for the most postseason win in history with 8...that stat alone make all his detractors look stupid. Gotta love Carp!
                                  Very true. Him diving into first tells you all you need to know about the type of competitor he is.....those are the type of plays where a leader gives himself up and lets his team know it's no holds barred boys!
                                  Comment
                                  • fitguy67
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 03-13-11
                                    • 5082

                                    #4847
                                    good luck on the game 2 deliberations guyz...this is an extremely evenly-matched series on paper...the whole series generally, and on a game-by-game basis as well...
                                    Comment
                                    • firehoyt
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 12-02-10
                                      • 3569

                                      #4848
                                      How would Gibson be a positive? For the over? The Cards? I've seen his stats with W/L on each team and it favors the Cards considerably.


                                      Originally posted by Redscot
                                      Gotta figure Garcia gives you 5 good innings at home. Texas batters have no familiarity with him. If we have similar conditions as last night and he keeps the ball down, would be hard to imagine him giving up more than 3 in 5 frames.....then onto Larussaville and the pen. Lewis too, should benefit from the ballpark and conditions. Cardinals have seen very little of him as well. However, any slight variation in that wind (blowing out in any way) and Lewis could be a BIG risk. Gibson behind the plate is a positive.....
                                      Comment
                                      • Redscot
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 05-16-11
                                        • 2571

                                        #4849
                                        Originally posted by firehoyt
                                        How would Gibson be a positive? For the over? The Cards? I've seen his stats with W/L on each team and it favors the Cards considerably.
                                        Gibson is a positive for the under firehoyt. This stat doesn't take into account the end of this season, but the trend is obvious:

                                        If you are looking for a solid under umpire, look no further than Greg Gibson. Teams have only scored 7.2 runs per game and the under is 7-3 in games listed at 8.5 or greater. His two year total is what’s impressive. Since 2010, the under is 38-11 in games where Gibson has been behind the plate.
                                        Comment
                                        • Love The Action
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 11-08-10
                                          • 10952

                                          #4850
                                          Originally posted by firehoyt
                                          How would Gibson be a positive? For the over? The Cards? I've seen his stats with W/L on each team and it favors the Cards considerably.
                                          We are discussing the under....
                                          Comment
                                          • Redscot
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 05-16-11
                                            • 2571

                                            #4851
                                            Got me chomping at the bit for some pigskin my man........couple of NCAA games tonight, you liking anything?
                                            Comment
                                            • Love The Action
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 11-08-10
                                              • 10952

                                              #4852
                                              Originally posted by Redscot
                                              Gibson is a positive for the under firehoyt. This stat doesn't take into account the end of this season, but the trend is obvious:

                                              If you are looking for a solid under umpire, look no further than Greg Gibson. Teams have only scored 7.2 runs per game and the under is 7-3 in games listed at 8.5 or greater. His two year total is what’s impressive. Since 2010, the under is 38-11 in games where Gibson has been behind the plate.
                                              Yeah...but before the last two years, he had no lean. Plus, I would prefer a strike rate above 62.5% range. Nevertheless, Gibsons last two years are more than variance...this guy is a solid under guy
                                              Comment
                                              • Love The Action
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 11-08-10
                                                • 10952

                                                #4853
                                                Originally posted by Redscot
                                                Got me chomping at the bit for some pigskin my man........couple of NCAA games tonight, you liking anything?
                                                Maybe...I'm looking at those games when I get to work. Going to have a busy day though, so I will pass if I can't do a thorough job. Locked in the GT/Miamj over as a big play in my ncaaf thread....i expect a big scoring game in that one.
                                                Comment
                                                • Redscot
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 05-16-11
                                                  • 2571

                                                  #4854
                                                  Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                  Yeah...but before the last two years, he had no lean. Plus, I would prefer a strike rate above 62.5% range. Nevertheless, Gibsons last two years are more than variance...this guy is a solid under guy
                                                  I agree, the strike percentage is borderline....do you have his strike percentages for the last few years? I'd be interested in that.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Love The Action
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 11-08-10
                                                    • 10952

                                                    #4855
                                                    Originally posted by Redscot
                                                    I agree, the strike percentage is borderline....do you have his strike percentages for the last few years? I'd be interested in that.
                                                    Yeah....he's always in that mid 62.5% range. You can get full ump history for the last ten years or so at covers. Go to mlb, then umps, then click the name and in the top right there is an option for previous seasons....
                                                    Comment
                                                    • 815Sox
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 09-13-10
                                                      • 1078

                                                      #4856
                                                      Originally posted by Redscot

                                                      I live in the Dominican Republic Sox. I was born and raised in NYC, but have lived here for the last 7 years, and have no plans on leaving
                                                      Cool. I am sure it is much much cheaper down there, and warmer too.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Redscot
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 05-16-11
                                                        • 2571

                                                        #4857
                                                        Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                        Yeah....he's always in that mid 62.5% range. You can get full ump history for the last ten years or so at covers. Go to mlb, then umps, then click the name and in the top right there is an option for previous seasons....
                                                        Sweet! I have used covers for ages and didn't know about the past years options .
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Redscot
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 05-16-11
                                                          • 2571

                                                          #4858
                                                          Originally posted by 815Sox
                                                          Cool. I am sure it is much much cheaper down there, and warmer too.
                                                          It's a good life. My budget is less than half it was in the States....and my day to day living is a lot healthier, virtually all the meat/fruit/veggies I eat are grown or raised locally, and the rum I drink too . Gambling is legal too .
                                                          Comment
                                                          • diazmoney2300
                                                            Restricted User
                                                            • 07-06-11
                                                            • 16

                                                            #4859
                                                            yo red was out there for the first time with my fiances family and theres nothing like it loved santo domingo. I stayed in haya sure ur familiar but soon as i read ur last post so many flashbacks he's not liying either meat/fruit/veggies all fresh. Bancas on every corner and the beer and liquir is like water. lol thanks for the memories cant wait to go back.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • diazmoney2300
                                                              Restricted User
                                                              • 07-06-11
                                                              • 16

                                                              #4860
                                                              as u can see on my avatar my beautiful lady is dominican and yes she is hot but i know u know red they r a handful lmao.... but hey they do take good care of us lol.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Donnie Brasco
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 01-04-11
                                                                • 862

                                                                #4861
                                                                Garcia at home as a dog? No brainer right? I already have birds +140 for series, if i take texas now at +115 that is free money right?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Donnie Brasco
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 01-04-11
                                                                  • 862

                                                                  #4862
                                                                  Think we stay with the birds especially with garcia and one less ranger bat in the lineup. Now educate me and tell me why i am wrong.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Redscot
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 05-16-11
                                                                    • 2571

                                                                    #4863
                                                                    Originally posted by diazmoney2300
                                                                    as u can see on my avatar my beautiful lady is dominican and yes she is hot but i know u know red they r a handful lmao.... but hey they do take good care of us lol.
                                                                    You got that right bro. I'm like a kid in a candy shop down here . Glad you had a good visit here, like anywhere else it has it's good and bad. Best people you find are in the countryside.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Redscot
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 05-16-11
                                                                      • 2571

                                                                      #4864
                                                                      Originally posted by Donnie Brasco
                                                                      Think we stay with the birds especially with garcia and one less ranger bat in the lineup. Now educate me and tell me why i am wrong.
                                                                      Curious to see LTA's read on this game....line is moving towards Texas....dunno, such a toss up and I like the edge the Cards have at home and with NL rules.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • diazmoney2300
                                                                        Restricted User
                                                                        • 07-06-11
                                                                        • 16

                                                                        #4865
                                                                        best time of my life red and the best people ive ever met yes ur right has its good and bad but the diffrence in living jus amazing didnt have a problem adjusting we can clog up this whole page jus talkin about it lol but lots of respect to l.t.a. love all the info in here. Red im in paterson,nj and i dont know if u been around this area but this is becoming little D.R. grab ur plastic chair and ur beer and sit out front and play some dominoes lmao....
                                                                        Comment
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