LTA's MLB Plays

**alamo** · 10-19-11, 04:23 PM

Good luck to everyone tonight with their WS plays

**DroppinDimes** · 10-19-11, 04:33 PM

I love the Cards tonight. Wilson's inconsistency, home field for St. Lou and the DH being taken away from Texas add up to a Cards win for me. Good luck everyone.

**Love The Action** · 10-19-11, 04:37 PM

Good luck guys...I'm super busy at work, but I may add a unit to the cardinals play and play the under....i will post my plays here. GL

**Redscot** · 10-19-11, 04:44 PM

Line taking a swing toward under now

**Rose'** · 10-19-11, 04:49 PM

Under is at 8 at Sportsinteraction -115

**Love The Action** · 10-19-11, 04:49 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/19/11

Play #1

Cardinals ML (-117) 1x (Locked)

I dont have much time for a writeup, so I will just give you the basics. I dont think this price gets any better, so I'm locking it now. I set the Cardinals as -129 favorites and will jump on the value of the home team in this spot. This game is played under NL rules, so you take a bat out of the rangers lineup which is an advantage for the cardinals. Other than the day he pitched on three days rest Carp has been sharper than Wilson throughout the playoffs. In addition, Wilson will be facing a right handed lineup and his platoon splits show he struggled more against righties than lefties. On the other side, Carp will also be facing mostly righties against texas (other than hamilton and murphy) and we all know Carp fares very well against righties. Both offenses are formidable and both bullpens solid, so with the Cards playing at home with the better pitcher at a cheap price, I am rolling with the Cardinals for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Rangers/Cards under (7.5) 2x (Locked)

Starting to move, but you can still get plus odds at Legends and similar books. No time for writeups. Back later with possible addition to cards ml or possible parlay. Good luck!

**DrStale** · 10-19-11, 05:02 PM

Not sure why everyone keeps saying Carp has been great except for that one outing. He did not look good against the Brewers and was really the only Cardinals pitcher who didnt during those 3 games in St. Louis, everyone else shut them down. Carpenter is missing something right now.

**Love The Action** · 10-19-11, 05:20 PM

Originally posted by DrStale

Not sure why everyone keeps saying Carp has been great except for that one outing. He did not look good against the Brewers and was really the only Cardinals pitcher who didnt during those 3 games in St. Louis, everyone else shut them down. Carpenter is missing something right now.

Disagree. Outside of the short rest game, he has pitched 14 innings in the playoffs and given up only 3 runs. If you go back to the last month before the playoffs, he had an xFIP under 2.9 which is phenomenal. I think you are missing something, not carp. He did give up those three runs against milwaukee over 5 innings, but he is a big game pitcher and I expect a solid performance tonight where the texas hitters are unfamiliar with his "stuff."

Are you suggesting wilson has fared better in the playoffs? Personally, I expect both pitchers to perform well tonight. I love that the market thinks poorly of these guys because it gave me great value on both the cards and the under.

**No coincidences** · 10-19-11, 05:24 PM

I want to take the under big LTA.

After last Friday's under disaster, though, I just can't. I think it hits, but there's something about me and baseball totals that always leads to disaster. Everything pointed to an under in that StL/MIL game beforehand, and then it all went to shit at the last second.

**lakerboy** · 10-19-11, 05:32 PM

Lets see how carpenter fares in the first two innings tonight. Gl on your plays LTA.

**Love The Action** · 10-19-11, 05:33 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

I want to take the under big LTA.

After last Friday's under disaster, though, I just can't. I think it hits, but there's something about me and baseball totals that always leads to disaster. Everything pointed to an under in that StL/MIL game beforehand, and then it all went to shit at the last second.

Good luck bud...as they say, "shit happens"... but you shouldn't let a bad beat under different circumstances scare you out of a play you like today. Let the bad beats go and dont play headgames with yourself. That is how you lose money by leaving it on the table. Everyday is a new day. Think about all the bad beats on totals I suffered this year, especily in july. If I let that get to me, I wouldn't even be playing these games. You just have to have a short memory and move on. If you dont like the under tonight because of things that directly affect the game, then ok. But dont let a bad beat in the past affect your decisions or you will regret it.

Good luck!

**No coincidences** · 10-19-11, 05:39 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Good luck bud...as they say, "shit happens"... but you shouldn't let a bad beat under different circumstances scare you out of a play you like today. Let the bad beats go and dont play headgames with yourself. That is how you lose money by leaving it on the table. Everyday is a new day. Think about all the bad beats on totals I suffered this year, especily in july. If I let that get to me, I wouldn't even be playing these games. You just have to have a short memory and move on. If you dont like the under tonight because of things that directly affect the game, then ok. But dont let a bad beat in the past affect your decisions or you will regret it.

Good luck!

I know all of that in theory, but bad beats on totals just seem to haunt me in MLB.

**Love The Action** · 10-19-11, 05:41 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Lets see how carpenter fares in the first two innings tonight. Gl on your plays LTA.

I agree...the early innings are supremely important. If the pitchers throw strikes and get in a rhythm early, the under has a great chance. If not, well, we all know the outcome with these lineups. I really do expect a solid performance out of both, but especially carp pitching at home and on 6 days of rest. Both pitchers are rested and pitching on 6 days rest in the case of carp and 5 days rest with wilson. They are rested and ready. I definitely worry more about wilson than carp though...he has not looked sharp...

Good luck on your plays

**No coincidences** · 10-19-11, 05:44 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I agree...the early innings are supremely important. If the pitchers throw strikes and get in a rhythm early, the under has a great chance. If not, well, we all know the outcome with these lineups. I really do expect a solid performance out of both, but especially carp pitching at home and on 6 days of rest. Both pitchers are rested and pitching on 6 days rest in the case of carp and 5 days rest with wilson. They are rested and ready. I definitely worry more about wilson than carp though...he has not looked sharp...

Good luck on your plays

I thought Wilson actually looked really good until the bad hop off the bag in the 6th at Detroit (or 7th -- can't remember which inning).

When's the last time the Cards beat a lefty at home LTA? They've notoriously burned many of my tickets against southpaws over the past few years....

**Dexter** · 10-19-11, 06:35 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

I want to take the under big LTA.

After last Friday's under disaster, though, I just can't. I think it hits, but there's something about me and baseball totals that always leads to disaster. Everything pointed to an under in that StL/MIL game beforehand, and then it all went to shit at the last second.

the under did hit if you didnt wait to watch the line movement.

**DrStale** · 10-19-11, 06:38 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Disagree. Outside of the short rest game, he has pitched 14 innings in the playoffs and given up only 3 runs. If you go back to the last month before the playoffs, he had an xFIP under 2.9 which is phenomenal. I think you are missing something, not carp. He did give up those three runs against milwaukee over 5 innings, but he is a big game pitcher and I expect a solid performance tonight where the texas hitters are unfamiliar with his "stuff."

Are you suggesting wilson has fared better in the playoffs? Personally, I expect both pitchers to perform well tonight. I love that the market thinks poorly of these guys because it gave me great value on both the cards and the under.

Agree to disagree on Carpenter, but no I dont think Wilson is very good either. I like the over in the first 5 innings tonight. BOL.

**BiffTFinancial** · 10-19-11, 06:51 PM

with you on the Cards. BOL, LTA.

**Love The Action** · 10-19-11, 07:04 PM

Originally posted by DrStale

Agree to disagree on Carpenter, but no I dont think Wilson is very good either. I like the over in the first 5 innings tonight. BOL.

Good luck

**815Sox** · 10-19-11, 07:05 PM

Hopefully it doesn't rain... I only played the ML because of this.

**Love The Action** · 10-19-11, 07:05 PM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

with you on the Cards. BOL, LTA.

Good luck Biffer!

**Love The Action** · 10-19-11, 07:09 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/19/11

Play #1

Cardinals ML (-117) 1x (Locked)

I dont have much time for a writeup, so I will just give you the basics. I dont think this price gets any better, so I'm locking it now. I set the Cardinals as -129 favorites and will jump on the value of the home team in this spot. This game is played under NL rules, so you take a bat out of the rangers lineup which is an advantage for the cardinals. Other than the day he pitched on three days rest Carp has been sharper than Wilson throughout the playoffs. In addition, Wilson will be facing a right handed lineup and his platoon splits show he struggled more against righties than lefties. On the other side, Carp will also be facing mostly righties against texas (other than hamilton and murphy) and we all know Carp fares very well against righties. Both offenses are formidable and both bullpens solid, so with the Cards playing at home with the better pitcher at a cheap price, I am rolling with the Cardinals for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Rangers/Cards under (7.5) 2x (Locked)

Starting to move, but you can still get plus odds at Legends and similar books. No time for writeups. Back later with possible addition to cards ml or possible parlay. Good luck!

ACTION PARLAY

Cards ML (-125)/Under (7.5)(-115) Pays 2.6x for every 1x risked

The parlay does not count for the record, but I love both plays so I'm going to go for it. Good luck!

**Love The Action** · 10-19-11, 07:11 PM

Originally posted by 815Sox

Hopefully it doesn't rain... I only played the ML because of this.

Goid luck my friend

**Love The Action** · 10-19-11, 07:15 PM

Good luck everyone. Win or lose, we made two long term profitable wagers because we demolished the closer by 10 cents on the cards ml and 22 cents on the under. Now let's cash these tickets!

**ram1502** · 10-19-11, 07:18 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Good luck everyone. Win or lose, we made two long term profitable wagers because we demolished the closer by 10 cents on the cards ml and 22 cents on the under. Now let's cash these tickets!

I'm seeing some Vegas shops closed on the under at -130ish. Should bode well for us...btw nice call on USC last week. As usual, you were right on with your analysis.

**815Sox** · 10-19-11, 07:50 PM

Yeah it closed at -130 at 5Dimes, I most likely would have taken it if it wasn't so pricey.

BOL everyone!

**815Sox** · 10-19-11, 08:14 PM

Looking good! Also, some good value on the NHL lines right now.

**ram1502** · 10-19-11, 08:51 PM

Originally posted by 815Sox

Looking good! Also, some good value on the NHL lines right now.

Who are u Lookin at for tomorrow? I always see u talking about hockey, but never see your picks...?

**Dexter** · 10-19-11, 10:14 PM

boom

**mdlove3081** · 10-19-11, 10:17 PM

LTA, I got to say thanks for this play tonight! I was really leaning towards the cards and the under. Your picks pushed me over the edge. Put down 2 units for a nice little payday.

**Redscot** · 10-19-11, 10:18 PM

Nice....Great start to the World Series.

**Louisvillekid1** · 10-19-11, 10:18 PM

nice hit LTA,

**Donnie Brasco** · 10-19-11, 10:23 PM

Good night boys!

**Love The Action** · 10-19-11, 10:23 PM

Had to work late so didn't get to see the game...just got home and saw everything went well. Nice

**hawley** · 10-19-11, 10:23 PM

**pacocn** · 10-19-11, 10:28 PM

lta, nice work