LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/20/11

Play #1

Giants/Astros under (7.5) 2x (1.5x under (7.5)(-110); 0.50x under (7.5)(-120)) (Locked)

Play #2

Royals ML (+123) 1x (Locked)

Big line move in support of the Royals. Looks like we beat everyone to the punch on that one....all the way down to +110 in some outlets.

The Giants/Astros total has also dropped to 7 at most outlets. Looks like we will destroy the closer in both of these plays as long as the lines stay where they are

[Dexter]

LTA...whats the highest you have weighted a game this year? you always seem to be around 1-2x when i peak in here. curious if you ever feel a game is worthy of a much larger weighting..

[alling]

[970] det -1½+145
[973] nyy -1½+120
[975] tex -1½+125

[Love The Action]

LTA...whats the highest you have weighted a game this year? you always seem to be around 1-2x when i peak in here. curious if you ever feel a game is worthy of a much larger weighting..

Sure...but under my evolving MM scheme I reduced my unit scale from (1x - 10x) to (1x - 5x) and increased the amount of my base unit from around $100 to over $200 (my units always fluctuate a little according to my overall BR -- as my BR goes up, so do my units and vice versa).

I have made several plays in the 5x - 10x range this season, but now my bigger plays are in the 2x-3x range. Because I am risking more on each play, I don't have as many bigger plays and am a bit more of a flat-bettor. However, this allows me to churn over my BR quicker in order to build my BR steadily because I hit around 53% long term. Nevertheless, when I see a play I really like (usually on unders), I will pull the trigger. I just like to pick my spots.

I'm rooting for you on your big Dodgers play! I hope they hold on...up 4-3 right now

Good luck

[Dexter]

lilly left with an injury....but he was worthless today. the better bullpen will now win this game.

[Redscot]

Leans:

AZ/Atl under (waiting to get 8)
AZ ML (probably will stick to the under as a play and go with an action parlay on AZ ML/under)
Padres
Yankees/Minny over
Yankees -1RL
Cincy/Pirates under
Royals ML
StL/Cubs under (probably too rainy to play as that Cubs bullpen would play too big a roll for my liking)
Cleveland/Detroit under
LAD ML
LAD/Rockies over
Oakland ML
Balty/LAA over

Leaving for the night in a couple hours so I will probably have all final plays posted by then. GL.

Like this .

Sometimes people are on the fence, a lean can be helpful. Also a good thing for the lotto tickets. Have a nice evening bro, with you on the 2 plays, lets get that escarole.

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/20/11

Play #1

Giants/Astros under (7.5) 2x (1.5x under (7.5)(-110); 0.50x under (7.5)(-120)) (Locked)

Baumgarner's numbers are just eye-popping with a FIP under 2.7, xFIP and tERA and SIERA all under 3.1. His value is undeniable with a WAR of 4.4 and with a K% at 22% and GB/FB at 1.3, he is the complete package. The Astros are at the bottom of the league against lefties in most statistical categories. I do not expect the Astros to must more than 1 or 2 runs today. On the other side, we have a young pup in Lyles who may not be old enough to drink but is old enough to pitch well in the major leagues. Lyles has a respectable SIERA right at 4 and the stuff to limit an ailing Giants lineup. The Giants have the Big Panda today, but he's not 100% healthy and neither is Keppinger (Cabrera and Beltran are out as you know). Plus, Lyles splits show an improvement in Houston and I expect him to follow suit and pitch well in this home game. The public is split on this game pretty much 50/50, but the line dropped steadily from 7.5 to 7 where it sits now with slight juice on the over. The ump has a strike rate of 63.2% which is just where I like it. I have this one 6.6, so I think we have a nice line here at 7.5. I don't see much in favor of the over here, with the only wild card as Lyles. But I think he has his nicest performance of the year tonight and will back the under for 2x.
Play #2

Royals ML (+123) 1x (Locked)

Paulino is a young stud according to the numbers with a 95 mph that moves. He has a K% over 20% and a GB/FB over 1.2, so he can strike you out and get those crucial double play ground balls. His FIP, xFIP and SIERA are all in the 3.7 range (tERA at 4). Plus, he's been very unlucky with a BABIP over .330. Wakefield's numbers do not even compare with a K% around 12%, GB/FB .8, and FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA all in the high 4's (more than one run more than Paulino). Plus, Wakefield has gotten killed by Gordon, Butler and the rest of the Royals lineup in the past -- they know what to expect from that knuckler. I jumped on the Royals earlier at +123 and it's down to +110 despite everyone on Boston so the line movement is in our favor. The Red Sox have never faced Paulino and that gives him and his stuff an edge. I have this one at +110, so the market adjustment was just about right. I think Paulino pitches well and I am backing the Royals for 1x.

Play #3

Arizona/Atlanta under (7.5)(+105) 1x (Locked)

Atlanta struggles against lefties and with a hot prospect in Miley going tonight, I think we have a good spot for the under. Mileys number were solid in the minors, but this is a whole new ballgame. Still, I think we get a quality start. The D-backs are not playing Young or Roberts, who are two of their best hitters production wise. Beachy is a beast with a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the mid to low 3's. He is a big strike out guy as well with K% over 20%. The ump is Miller who has a huge strike rate at 64.2% and who I believe might by one of Dexter's system umps. I always love that. The line opened at 8 and dropped to 7.5 despite 60% on the over. I wish I could have gotten 8, but both my locals opened at 7.5 and the line never went back up. I would have made this a 1.5x or more at 8. I think the Braves struggles against lefties combined with Beachy facing a watered down lineup is enough to run with the under here. When you throw the ump in, that is just gravy and I am rolling with the under for 1x. I may add a little more on as well.

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/20/11

Play #1

Giants/Astros under (7.5) 2x (1.5x under (7.5)(-110); 0.50x under (7.5)(-120)) (Locked)

Baumgarner's numbers are just eye-popping with a FIP under 2.7, xFIP and tERA and SIERA all under 3.1. His value is undeniable with a WAR of 4.4 and with a K% at 22% and GB/FB at 1.3, he is the complete package. The Astros are at the bottom of the league against lefties in most statistical categories. I do not expect the Astros to must more than 1 or 2 runs today. On the other side, we have a young pup in Lyles who may not be old enough to drink but is old enough to pitch well in the major leagues. Lyles has a respectable SIERA right at 4 and the stuff to limit an ailing Giants lineup. The Giants have the Big Panda today, but he's not 100% healthy and neither is Keppinger (Cabrera and Beltran are out as you know). Plus, Lyles splits show an improvement in Houston and I expect him to follow suit and pitch well in this home game. The public is split on this game pretty much 50/50, but the line dropped steadily from 7.5 to 7 where it sits now with slight juice on the over. The ump has a strike rate of 63.2% which is just where I like it. I have this one 6.6, so I think we have a nice line here at 7.5. I don't see much in favor of the over here, with the only wild card as Lyles. But I think he has his nicest performance of the year tonight and will back the under for 2x.

Play #2

Royals ML (+123) 1x (Locked)

Paulino is a young stud according to the numbers with a 95 mph that moves. He has a K% over 20% and a GB/FB over 1.2, so he can strike you out and get those crucial double play ground balls. His FIP, xFIP and SIERA are all in the 3.7 range (tERA at 4). Plus, he's been very unlucky with a BABIP over .330. Wakefield's numbers do not even compare with a K% around 12%, GB/FB .8, and FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA all in the high 4's (more than one run more than Paulino). Plus, Wakefield has gotten killed by Gordon, Butler and the rest of the Royals lineup in the past -- they know what to expect from that knuckler. I jumped on the Royals earlier at +123 and it's down to +110 despite everyone on Boston so the line movement is in our favor. The Red Sox have never faced Paulino and that gives him and his stuff an edge. I have this one at +110, so the market adjustment was just about right. I think Paulino pitches well and I am backing the Royals for 1x.

Play #3

Arizona/Atlanta under (7.5)(+105) 1x (Locked)

Atlanta struggles against lefties and with a hot prospect in Miley going tonight, I think we have a good spot for the under. Mileys number were solid in the minors, but this is a whole new ballgame. Still, I think we get a quality start. The D-backs are not playing Young or Roberts, who are two of their best hitters production wise. Beachy is a beast with a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the mid to low 3's. He is a big strike out guy as well with K% over 20%. The ump is Miller who has a huge strike rate at 64.2% and who I believe might by one of Dexter's system umps. I always love that. The line opened at 8 and dropped to 7.5 despite 60% on the over. I wish I could have gotten 8, but both my locals opened at 7.5 and the line never went back up. I would have made this a 1.5x or more at 8. I think the Braves struggles against lefties combined with Beachy facing a watered down lineup is enough to run with the under here. When you throw the ump in, that is just gravy and I am rolling with the under for 1x. I may add a little more on as well.

I'm pretty sure the card is final. I am debating whether to play the Orioles/LAA over. I may add that one later. I am off for dinner now. Good luck to everyone tonight!

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/20/11

Play #1

Giants/Astros under (7.5) 2x (1.5x under (7.5)(-110); 0.50x under (7.5)(-120)) (Locked)

Baumgarner's numbers are just eye-popping with a FIP under 2.7, xFIP and tERA and SIERA all under 3.1. His value is undeniable with a WAR of 4.4 and with a K% at 22% and GB/FB at 1.3, he is the complete package. The Astros are at the bottom of the league against lefties in most statistical categories. I do not expect the Astros to must more than 1 or 2 runs today. On the other side, we have a young pup in Lyles who may not be old enough to drink but is old enough to pitch well in the major leagues. Lyles has a respectable SIERA right at 4 and the stuff to limit an ailing Giants lineup. The Giants have the Big Panda today, but he's not 100% healthy and neither is Keppinger (Cabrera and Beltran are out as you know). Plus, Lyles splits show an improvement in Houston and I expect him to follow suit and pitch well in this home game. The public is split on this game pretty much 50/50, but the line dropped steadily from 7.5 to 7 where it sits now with slight juice on the over. The ump has a strike rate of 63.2% which is just where I like it. I have this one 6.6, so I think we have a nice line here at 7.5. I don't see much in favor of the over here, with the only wild card as Lyles. But I think he has his nicest performance of the year tonight and will back the under for 2x.

Play #2

Royals ML (+123) 1x (Locked)

Paulino is a young stud according to the numbers with a 95 mph that moves. He has a K% over 20% and a GB/FB over 1.2, so he can strike you out and get those crucial double play ground balls. His FIP, xFIP and SIERA are all in the 3.7 range (tERA at 4). Plus, he's been very unlucky with a BABIP over .330. Wakefield's numbers do not even compare with a K% around 12%, GB/FB .8, and FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA all in the high 4's (more than one run more than Paulino). Plus, Wakefield has gotten killed by Gordon, Butler and the rest of the Royals lineup in the past -- they know what to expect from that knuckler. I jumped on the Royals earlier at +123 and it's down to +110 despite everyone on Boston so the line movement is in our favor. The Red Sox have never faced Paulino and that gives him and his stuff an edge. I have this one at +110, so the market adjustment was just about right. I think Paulino pitches well and I am backing the Royals for 1x.

Play #3

Arizona/Atlanta under (7.5)(+105) 1x (Locked)

Atlanta struggles against lefties and with a hot prospect in Miley going tonight, I think we have a good spot for the under. Mileys number were solid in the minors, but this is a whole new ballgame. Still, I think we get a quality start. The D-backs are not playing Young or Roberts, who are two of their best hitters production wise. Beachy is a beast with a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the mid to low 3's. He is a big strike out guy as well with K% over 20%. The ump is Miller who has a huge strike rate at 64.2% and who I believe might by one of Dexter's system umps. I always love that. The line opened at 8 and dropped to 7.5 despite 60% on the over. I wish I could have gotten 8, but both my locals opened at 7.5 and the line never went back up. I would have made this a 1.5x or more at 8. I think the Braves struggles against lefties combined with Beachy facing a watered down lineup is enough to run with the under here. When you throw the ump in, that is just gravy and I am rolling with the under for 1x. I may add a little more on as well.

Added 0.50x to Play #3 for total of 1.5x Arizona/Atlanta under (7.5) (1x under (7.5) (+105); 0.50x under (7.5)(-105))

I'm going to add to the Arizona under here. I like the late movement and think Miley performs well. GL.

[Love The Action]

MLB Recap 8/20/11

1 - 2 = -2.47

MLB Season 2011

351 - 316 = +30.86x

Just got home from dinner and drinks and really surprised how poor Baumgarner pitched. He should have performed better than that against a weak team. Oh well, back in the red for the week so we need a nice little Sunday to get us back where we want to be. Excited about Sunday's card. Quite a few good looking plays, not the least of which is that FL/SD under. Started capping that one before I left for the night...

[No coincidences]

MLB Recap 8/20/11

1 - 2 = -2.47

MLB Season 2011

351 - 316 = +30.86x

Just got home from dinner and drinks and really surprised how poor Baumgarner pitched. He should have performed better than that against a weak team. Oh well, back in the red for the week so we need a nice little Sunday to get us back where we want to be. Excited about Sunday's card. Quite a few good looking plays, not the least of which is that FL/SD under. Started capping that one before I left for the night...

I'm digging the PHI/WAS under 7.5 LTA -- am I crazy?

[Love The Action]

I'm digging the PHI/WAS under 7.5 LTA -- am I crazy?

Interesting. I think that's a tough one though, just because you don't know what to expect out of Wang. Is he going to stick with slider/sinker which has brought him the most success or get away from that. I made some nice money fading Wang in his first couple starts and then wisely passed on his recent starts in which he showed some promise. I will probably do the same in this one, but I wish you luck if you play it.

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/21/11

Play #1

AZ/Atl under (7.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I fully expect this total to drop to 7 by Sunday morning, so I have to lock it in now. I have this one at 6.7 and it's going to take a total of 8 to lose and I don't see that happening. First and foremost, we have Hudson going for Atlanta and he has been lights out lately. He's not having one of his best seasons, but it's hard to live up to such lofty standards that he has set for himself. To me, the guy is still an all-star caliber SP. His FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA are solid in the mid 3's. However, he makes his living as a ground ball pitcher first and foremost and that's where he excels with a GB/FB over 2.1. On the other side, we have a surprising name this year in Josh Collmenter. However, he's been very solid and dependable except for a couple of rough back to back starts a few weeks ago. Since then, however, he's been very good limiting the Phillies to 2 earned runs over 6.2 innings and the same against Houston over 7 innings. Most telling is Collmenter's WAR of 2 as that surprised me a bit and shows his value when compared to Hudson who is at 2.7. That's not that much difference and gives me the confidence to back Collmenter here. Both Hudson and Collmenter have pitched well against the opposing lineups. Collmenter faced the Braves earlier in the year and held them to 2 hits and no earned runs. Hudson, on the other hand, has held AZ in check by limiting them to a .205 BAA and OBP under 4.6. With Hoye as the ump and his being one of the best historic under umps over the last five years or so, in addition to his 63% strike rate, I think we have enough to take the heavy juice on the under before the total drops and I am doing just that for 1x. Good luck.

[ParlayJunkie]

Good Luck on your plays!

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/21/11

Play #1

AZ/Atl under (7.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I fully expect this total to drop to 7 by Sunday morning, so I have to lock it in now. I have this one at 6.7 and it's going to take a total of 8 to lose and I don't see that happening. First and foremost, we have Hudson going for Atlanta and he has been lights out lately. He's not having one of his best seasons, but it's hard to live up to such lofty standards that he has set for himself. To me, the guy is still an all-star caliber SP. His FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA are solid in the mid 3's. However, he makes his living as a ground ball pitcher first and foremost and that's where he excels with a GB/FB over 2.1. On the other side, we have a surprising name this year in Josh Collmenter. However, he's been very solid and dependable except for a couple of rough back to back starts a few weeks ago. Since then, however, he's been very good limiting the Phillies to 2 earned runs over 6.2 innings and the same against Houston over 7 innings. Most telling is Collmenter's WAR of 2 as that surprised me a bit and shows his value when compared to Hudson who is at 2.7. That's not that much difference and gives me the confidence to back Collmenter here. Both Hudson and Collmenter have pitched well against the opposing lineups. Collmenter faced the Braves earlier in the year and held them to 2 hits and no earned runs. Hudson, on the other hand, has held AZ in check by limiting them to a .205 BAA and OBP under 4.6. With Hoye as the ump and his being one of the best historic under umps over the last five years or so, in addition to his 63% strike rate, I think we have enough to take the heavy juice on the under before the total drops and I am doing just that for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Toronto/Oakland over (8.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I think we see some movement on this on up to 9. I have it set at 9.4 so I think we have some definite value on the over here. In addition, we are continuing our over plays where Moscoso is involved. Despite some relatively decent performances, his advanced stats just scream that this guy is garbage and is getting by on smoke and mirrors. He doesn't really do anything well. His FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA area all in the high 4's or low 5's. His K% is under 13% and his GB/FB is at .5. With a BABIP pretty low around .230, he has been getting lucky to do as crappy as he has. Therefore, he could be due for a regression to perform even worse. The Blue Jays just faced Moscoso and he only gave up 1 run through 6 innings (game still went way over and we cashed that one). I think the Blue Jays now know what to expect and will tee this guy up. On the other side, the Blue Jays will be going with Luis Perez. He has been a solid reliever, but his arm is not stretched out and he won't get past the 5th inning. Between Moscos and the Blue Jays having to pick up the slack, I think this one sails over the posted total. The ump doesn't really lean over or under, but he has a more under friendly strike rate at 63%, however, I don't think that will matter too much on Sunday. I expect a lot of runs and am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Redscot]

Good day to all

Really surprised by Bum's performance as well, oh well, se'la'vie. Last night definitely an example of how these young teams Hou/K.C etc. are very volatile this time of year, bunch of young bucks who don't know any better trying to make a name for themselves quite the opposite of some vet teams that have fallen out of the race and start to just play out the string (read Muts). Speaking of Muts LTA, I first mentioned a Muts fade last Saturday in Big Dan's thread, 1st week results are in +2.32 units. Gonna track it here for fun if you don't mind my man.

Looking forward to a big day, just starting to take a look at the card.

[homosayswhat]

Collmenter blows on the road....giving up huge runs over the course

GL...but he could implode here...and cover the OVER himself...

[BiffTFinancial]

Collmenter blows on the road....giving up huge runs over the course GL...but he could implode here...and cover the OVER himself...

Collmenter is weaker on the road than at home, no doubt, but he and Hudson both have great day game numbers. it's not a huge sample size, of course, but his bad road starts have been at night.

[blumpkin]

Hudson has shut down zona through his career. zona struggling offensively scoring 6 runs in the last 4 games. collmenter pitched well in phila last time out. just got the under at 7 +105. like the play good luck lta.. when you get a chance check out yanks/minny over

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/21/11

Play #1

AZ/Atl under (7.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I fully expect this total to drop to 7 by Sunday morning, so I have to lock it in now. I have this one at 6.7 and it's going to take a total of 8 to lose and I don't see that happening. First and foremost, we have Hudson going for Atlanta and he has been lights out lately. He's not having one of his best seasons, but it's hard to live up to such lofty standards that he has set for himself. To me, the guy is still an all-star caliber SP. His FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA are solid in the mid 3's. However, he makes his living as a ground ball pitcher first and foremost and that's where he excels with a GB/FB over 2.1. On the other side, we have a surprising name this year in Josh Collmenter. However, he's been very solid and dependable except for a couple of rough back to back starts a few weeks ago. Since then, however, he's been very good limiting the Phillies to 2 earned runs over 6.2 innings and the same against Houston over 7 innings. Most telling is Collmenter's WAR of 2 as that surprised me a bit and shows his value when compared to Hudson who is at 2.7. That's not that much difference and gives me the confidence to back Collmenter here. Both Hudson and Collmenter have pitched well against the opposing lineups. Collmenter faced the Braves earlier in the year and held them to 2 hits and no earned runs. Hudson, on the other hand, has held AZ in check by limiting them to a .205 BAA and OBP under 4.6. With Hoye as the ump and his being one of the best historic under umps over the last five years or so, in addition to his 63% strike rate, I think we have enough to take the heavy juice on the under before the total drops and I am doing just that for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Toronto/Oakland over (8.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I think we see some movement on this on up to 9. I have it set at 9.4 so I think we have some definite value on the over here. In addition, we are continuing our over plays where Moscoso is involved. Despite some relatively decent performances, his advanced stats just scream that this guy is garbage and is getting by on smoke and mirrors. He doesn't really do anything well. His FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA area all in the high 4's or low 5's. His K% is under 13% and his GB/FB is at .5. With a BABIP pretty low around .230, he has been getting lucky to do as crappy as he has. Therefore, he could be due for a regression to perform even worse. The Blue Jays just faced Moscoso and he only gave up 1 run through 6 innings (game still went way over and we cashed that one). I think the Blue Jays now know what to expect and will tee this guy up. On the other side, the Blue Jays will be going with Luis Perez. He has been a solid reliever, but his arm is not stretched out and he won't get past the 5th inning. Between Moscos and the Blue Jays having to pick up the slack, I think this one sails over the posted total. The ump doesn't really lean over or under, but he has a more under friendly strike rate at 63%, however, I don't think that will matter too much on Sunday. I expect a lot of runs and am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Added 0.50x to Play #1 for total of 1.5x AZ/Atl under (7.5)(-120) (Locked)

Huge movement on the under started ten minutes ago just as I predicted. I was lucky to be able to add an extra half unit at 7.5 instead of 7 where it sits now. Good luck.

[blumpkin]

where do you see the movement going? will the under 7 get to even or -105ish

[Love The Action]

Good day to all

Really surprised by Bum's performance as well, oh well, se'la'vie. Last night definitely an example of how these young teams Hou/K.C etc. are very volatile this time of year, bunch of young bucks who don't know any better trying to make a name for themselves quite the opposite of some vet teams that have fallen out of the race and start to just play out the string (read Muts). Speaking of Muts LTA, I first mentioned a Muts fade last Saturday in Big Dan's thread, 1st week results are in +2.32 units. Gonna track it here for fun if you don't mind my man.

Looking forward to a big day, just starting to take a look at the card.

Morning...keep that Muts fade record going....I may just fade them today. I lean to the Brewers, but sure wish they would have lost yesterday.

[Love The Action]

Collmenter blows on the road....giving up huge runs over the course

GL...but he could implode here...and cover the OVER himself...

Collmenter is weaker on the road than at home, no doubt, but he and Hudson both have great day game numbers. it's not a huge sample size, of course, but his bad road starts have been at night.

Collmenter just held the Phillies to 2 runs over 6.2 innings in Philly as I mentioned in my writeup, plus on July 18th, he held Milwaukee to no runs through 8 innings in Milwaukee. It's hard to give much significance to splits such as the ones you reference when you are evaluating a first-year guy. The sample size is really too small to apply any real weight. Collmenter has the ability to pitch well, regardless at home or on the road. In this game, we just need a quality performance of no more than 3 runs through six innings and we should cash this play. Good luck to the both of you whatever you play.

[Love The Action]

Hudson has shut down zona through his career. zona struggling offensively scoring 6 runs in the last 4 games. collmenter pitched well in phila last time out. just got the under at 7 +105. like the play good luck lta.. when you get a chance check out yanks/minny over

With respect to the Yanks/Minny over, I think it's a tough call. I haven't gone in-depth on that one yet, but I don't like the number at 9.5. That's a pretty large total for a guy in Nova who has been performing well in his competition for a postseason rotation role. On the other side, you just don't know what you are going to get from Blackburn as he could either pitch really well or implode. My model has this one right at 9.4, so I don't think we really have an "edge" in that one. That one's more of a coinflip to me and I could see it ending 5-4 or 6-3 and never getting that last run. Probably a pass for me, but good luck if you play it.

[BiffTFinancial]

Collmenter just held the Phillies to 2 runs over 6.2 innings in Philly as I mentioned in my writeup, plus on July 18th, he held Milwaukee to no runs through 8 innings in Milwaukee. It's hard to give much significance to splits such as the ones you reference when you are evaluating a first-year guy. The sample size is really too small to apply any real weight. Collmenter has the ability to pitch well, regardless at home or on the road. In this game, we just need a quality performance of no more than 3 runs through six innings and we should cash this play. Good luck to the both of you whatever you play.

i'm on the under. that's why i got so defensive.

Collmenter fan here. you are right, for a young player, hard to take too much from those splits. the small sample size stat to give most weight is his start against the Braves. beyond that, thinking Hoye plus these two starters should mean pitchers duel. BOL, LTA.

[Love The Action]

where do you see the movement going? will the under 7 get to even or -105ish

Starting to go back up...I will be interested to see where this closes. I certainly didn't expect to this move back towards the over, but you never know. Let's see where the closer ends up...

[Love The Action]

i'm on the under. that's why i got so defensive.

Collmenter fan here. you are right, for a young player, hard to take too much from those splits. the small sample size stat to give most weight is his start against the Braves. beyond that, thinking Hoye plus these two starters should mean pitchers duel. BOL, LTA.

Glad to see you on the under

I haven't had the chance to make it over to your thread yet...busy watching these lines. The usual crazy Sunday morning movement is in full gear.

Good luck

[GoggsViggs]

LTA, i'm done with MLB this week and on a nice run in NFL and WNBA. BoL with your picks today. hope you ca$h them all bro.

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/21/11

Play #1

AZ/Atl under (7.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I fully expect this total to drop to 7 by Sunday morning, so I have to lock it in now. I have this one at 6.7 and it's going to take a total of 8 to lose and I don't see that happening. First and foremost, we have Hudson going for Atlanta and he has been lights out lately. He's not having one of his best seasons, but it's hard to live up to such lofty standards that he has set for himself. To me, the guy is still an all-star caliber SP. His FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA are solid in the mid 3's. However, he makes his living as a ground ball pitcher first and foremost and that's where he excels with a GB/FB over 2.1. On the other side, we have a surprising name this year in Josh Collmenter. However, he's been very solid and dependable except for a couple of rough back to back starts a few weeks ago. Since then, however, he's been very good limiting the Phillies to 2 earned runs over 6.2 innings and the same against Houston over 7 innings. Most telling is Collmenter's WAR of 2 as that surprised me a bit and shows his value when compared to Hudson who is at 2.7. That's not that much difference and gives me the confidence to back Collmenter here. Both Hudson and Collmenter have pitched well against the opposing lineups. Collmenter faced the Braves earlier in the year and held them to 2 hits and no earned runs. Hudson, on the other hand, has held AZ in check by limiting them to a .205 BAA and OBP under 4.6. With Hoye as the ump and his being one of the best historic under umps over the last five years or so, in addition to his 63% strike rate, I think we have enough to take the heavy juice on the under before the total drops and I am doing just that for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Toronto/Oakland over (8.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I think we see some movement on this on up to 9. I have it set at 9.4 so I think we have some definite value on the over here. In addition, we are continuing our over plays where Moscoso is involved. Despite some relatively decent performances, his advanced stats just scream that this guy is garbage and is getting by on smoke and mirrors. He doesn't really do anything well. His FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA area all in the high 4's or low 5's. His K% is under 13% and his GB/FB is at .5. With a BABIP pretty low around .230, he has been getting lucky to do as crappy as he has. Therefore, he could be due for a regression to perform even worse. The Blue Jays just faced Moscoso and he only gave up 1 run through 6 innings (game still went way over and we cashed that one). I think the Blue Jays now know what to expect and will tee this guy up. On the other side, the Blue Jays will be going with Luis Perez. He has been a solid reliever, but his arm is not stretched out and he won't get past the 5th inning. Between Moscos and the Blue Jays having to pick up the slack, I think this one sails over the posted total. The ump doesn't really lean over or under, but he has a more under friendly strike rate at 63%, however, I don't think that will matter too much on Sunday. I expect a lot of runs and am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Orioles/Angels over (9)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Matusz has struggled all year and the Angles have been raking aginst lefties all year, but especially of late. They remain in the top half of the league in seasonal OBP versus lefties and I expect them to rock Matusz today. Jerome Williams is making his first start in the majors since 2007 and he wasn't exactly the most successful back then. Although, I would argue this is a newly committed guy who turned his career around, I still think he gives up at least 4 today. I won't go through all the numbers, but Matusz has gotten rocked all year and I don't expect miracles out of Williams. This is a good opportunity for both offenses to rack up the numbers. The ump is Danley with his slight over lean throughout his career, with a consistent strike rate around 62% and runs/per/gm average above 9. I have this one at 10, so I will roll with the over here for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Florida/SD under (6)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I wanted to make this at least a 2x play at 6.5. However, when I got home from dinner last night, the total already dropped to 6 and does not look to be going back up so I will take it now at plus odds. I have this one at 5.3 and have to roll with the under here. Sanchez has dominate stuff and his advanced stats are really impressive with a WAR of 2.9, K% over 24%, FIP of 3.4, xFIP of 3.1, tERA of of 3.7 and most impressively a SIERA of 3.01. The guy also has a solid GB/FB ration of 1.3. On the other side, Luebke has impressed and his numbers back that up and even surpass Sanchez in a smaller sample size, however, a WAR of 2, K% of 27%, FIP of 2.6, xFIP of 3.1, tERA of 2.5 and SIERA of 2.7 are really, really good. Luebke's BABIP is pretty low, which shows he's gotten some luck and Sanchez is the opposite, especially on the road where I expect Sanchez to catch some breaks moving forward. The ump is Bellino who is a third year guy that always has a slight under lean with a strike rate of 63% throughout his career. I love this play and wish I could have gotten it at 6.5. As it is, I may add units before gametime. For right now, I will roll with the under for 1x at plus odds. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

LTA, i'm done with MLB this week and on a nice run in NFL and WNBA. BoL with your picks today. hope you ca$h them all bro.

Good luck GV. I'll stop by your NFL thread if you have one. I just can't bet money on preseason football. There are too many variables and I just don't know what to expect. I will get back into WNBA for their playoff games. I don't have time to cap both right now. Hope you continue your hot run...thanks for that CFL winner on Thursday

[pacocn]

Lta, i would imagine those Padre legs are quite fatigued after
plating 14 last night, also the Pads are paying tribute to their
great closer Trevor Hoffman before the game this should inspire
both pitchers to do well and maybe inspire H. Bell to close this one
out incident free.

[pacocn]

Lta, any feeling on the Reds/Pirates Under 8.5 today?

[Love The Action]

Lta, any feeling on the Reds/Pirates Under 8.5 today?

That one is a pass for me. I have it at 8.6, so that's pretty much right at the current number. The line movement also seems to point to the over. I see why you would like the under, but I have it more as a coinflip and don't see the edge either way. I hope you cash it if you play it

[man_of_steel]

just my luck I'm on the opposite end of 3 plays

[Love The Action]

just my luck I'm on the opposite end of 3 plays

Interesting...I would love to hear your thoughts supporting the other side. Who knows...I've been up and down over the last week...gotta say, though, I feel really good about this card. With that said, I felt even better about yesterday's card and that didn't end up too well. Good luck anyway