We have three plays so far.
Remaining leans:
Milwaukee/AZ over
LAD/SF under
Remaining leans:
Milwaukee/AZ over
LAD/SF under
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Toying with that LA under too. Billinglsey has put 4 straight solid starts together after a rough patch, and Vogel has been lights out at home. Just worry if Vogel's been overachieving so far (his peripheral's indicate so), I have it pretty much an even match-upon the mound. GL on your choice
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Precisely. Vogelsong is rocking a BABIP of .257 and LOB% of 82%, so he's definitely been really lucky. At the same time, the Dodgers have been struggling offensively and are on a huge under regression after some early season over hits going for two unders in a row, six of seven and eight of their last ten. I think we can trust Billingsley who is hot coming into today and has a career ERA of 3.06 against SF. I'm liking it the more I typeToying with that LA under too. Billinglsey has put 4 straight solid starts together after a rough patch, and Vogel has been lights out at home. Just worry if Vogel's been overachieving so far (his peripheral's indicate so), I have it pretty much an even match-upon the mound. GL on your choice.
. I would like to know who the ump is before I lock anything in. I also want to know what the hell is going to happen with my 2x Natties over play. I am very surprised that Marquis and Lyles are dominating those offenses in the home run friendly park in Houston.
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Yeah man, I haven't been able to find the ump yet either, could be a clincher.
I actually liked Lyles chances tonight, small sample but has had success at home. Still both pitchers on a bad run, Marquis suspect on the road and with some bad numbers against current Stros LU, coupled with the BallPark. Definitely looked over, still time, Marquis is always more hittable 2nd and 3rd time around. End of the day, those Fcuk's in Vegas are sharp!
GL
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Jinx be damned but the Braves play is looking really nice. Seemed too good to be true really the line, only concern I had. Colorado is strong at home, but come on, Braves are red hot, Lowe has been better than his numbers look and is a GB pitcher in Col. Hammel is just sheeit.Comment -
Yeah, looks like a loser now. Bottom of the 8th and still 2-2. That sucks - everything pointed over there including the late line moves pushing the total to 8.5. Going to need a miracle.Yeah man, I haven't been able to find the ump yet either, could be a clincher.
I actually liked Lyles chances tonight, small sample but has had success at home. Still both pitchers on a bad run, Marquis suspect on the road and with some bad numbers against current Stros LU, coupled with the BallPark. Definitely looked over, still time, Marquis is always more hittable 2nd and 3rd time around. End of the day, those Fcuk's in Vegas are sharp!
GL
Oh well, I will be playing the under in that Dodgers game as long as we don't get a huge over ump. I'm pretty sure the wind is blowing in from the right at 14mph to help the under a bit as well.
Gotta start looking at tomorrow's card too. I hate when I am trying to finish capping tonight's card and then go right into tomorrow's.
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Neutral ump in frisco, Culbreth.Comment -
In the Giants game, winding is blowing from West North WestYeah, looks like a loser now. Bottom of the 8th and still 2-2. That sucks - everything pointed over there including the late line moves pushing the total to 8.5. Going to need a miracle.
Oh well, I will be playing the under in that Dodgers game as long as we don't get a huge over ump. I'm pretty sure the wind is blowing in from the right at 14mph to help the under a bit as well.
Gotta start looking at tomorrow's card too. I hate when I am trying to finish capping tonight's card and then go right into tomorrow's.
Winds WNW at 10 to 15 mph.
The homerun arena is facing the water, EAST.
maybe weather.com is wrong but the wind is coming from the west from my window.Comment -
Come on Nat's! push on through baby! Gotta love that Stros pen
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wat the hell? That sacrifice fly for the total push and the guy choked on his feet like a minor league mistake. That was stupid.Comment -
Play #4
Dodgers/Giants under (6.5)(+100) 1.25x (Locked)
Final play of the day has Billingsley facing off against Vogelsong. As Redscot and I mentioned above, Vogelsong has an extremely low BABIP of .257 and a LOB% exceeding 82% which means he has had a lot of luck so far this year. However, I'm betting that luck continues against a Dodger team which is regressing towards unders and being a bigger over team throughout the year. In their last ten games, the Dodgers are 2-8 o/u and have hit the under six of their last seven games. The Dodgers have a poor batting average under .180 against right handed hitters in their last ten games. Vogelsong boasts solid defensive independent stats with a FIP 3.62, xFIP of 3.76 and tERA of 3.77, all of which put him top 70 in MLB (even better among starters alone). Plus, Vogelson has limited opposing hitters to a batting average of .221, with a killer WHIP of 1.19 and gives up under 1 hr per game with a HR/9 of .72. His batted ball peripherals are solid, with Vogelsong throwing about 46% ground balls for a GB/FB ratio of 1.25 and a HR/FB of 8%. With the Dodgers struggling at the plate, I think Vogelsong's success continues tonight. On the other side, Billingsley has dominated all year and especially of late with a WHIP of 0.91 and ERA under 2 in his last three starts where he went 1-2 o/u. Billingsley has been a beast all year with dominating advanced stats putting him top 50-60 in FIP, xFIP and tERA. Plus, there has been no luck involved where is BABIP is above .300 and his LOB is right at 70%. Finally, with a GB/FB ratio of 1.5 and a K/9 of 8, I think we see a lot of groundballs and strikeouts tonight for Billingsley. With some killer team trends pointing to the under for both teams and an umpire in Culbreth who has a strike percentage of 63.4%, I'm rolling with the under for 1.25x. Good luck!Comment -
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Washington - Top of 9thSCOREJordan Lyles pitching for HoustonWSHHOUR Bernadina singled to shallow right center.22D Espinosa sacrificed to pitcher, R Bernadina to second.22R Zimmerman singled to shallow right center, R Bernadina scored.32W Lopez relieved J Lyles.32M Morse singled to shallow left center, R Zimmerman to second.32J Werth walked, R Zimmerman to third, M Morse to second.32L Nix singled to shallow right, R Zimmerman and M Morse scored, J Werth to third.52F Rodriguez relieved W Lopez.52R Ankiel ran for L Nix.52W Ramos popped out to shortstop, J Werth tagged out at home.523 Runs, 4 Hits, 0 ErrorsHouston - Bottom of 9thSCOREDrew Storen pitching for WashingtonWSHHOUR Bernadina in left field.52R Ankiel in center field.52D Storen relieved J Marquis.52C Lee doubled to center.52J Michaels struck out swinging.52C Johnson struck out looking.52C Corporan struck out swinging.52
Check that out...pathetic. We had easy scoring chances over the last inning to get the push. First Werth gets tagged out trying to tag on a pop to the shortstop and then the leadoff hitter gets a double, only for three straight guys to strikeout. I mean, after awhile, the gambling gods owe us some of those based on the unders that have pushed because of BS late inning runs. These have to even out soon...man...oh well, we cashed the White Sox and hopefully the Braves if they hold on. If we can get the Dodgers under, we'll have back to back profitable days. The gambling gods owe us that...Comment -
MLB Recap 7/18/11
3 - 1 = +1.4x
We were a couple of stupid plays in the Washington/Houston game away from either a sweep or a 3-0-1 night. Oh well, back to back profitable nights are just what we need right now. Time to put together a little streak and get hot.
MLB Season 2011
280 - 257 = +25.4x
Big day tomorrow. At least one, maybe two multiple unit plays.Comment -
MLB 7/19/11
Play #1
Padres/Marlins under (7)(+100) 3x (Locked)
Play #2
Nationals -1 RL (0.75x ML (-145) and 0.75x -1.5RL (+115))
I love both of these plays and may add to both as the day goes on tomorrow. I wanted to lock these prices in now as I do not believe the Padres total will go up to 7.5 and I know the Nationals ML will go up beyond -150. I will try to get you guys writeups, but the numbers back both of these plays up big time. Sanchez and Stauffer should be quite the duel with Sanchez needing a big bounceback performance after three rough starts. On the other side, Stauffer has just dominated for the most part and will keep the ball down against the hot hitting Marlins.
In the Natties game, Zimmerman dwarfs Happ in every conceivable category. I am confident that Washington wins that one by three runs or more.
I also have a lean to the Phillies/Cubs under, but there is not total released as of yet. I really like tomorrow's card, so we might have a few more plays than today's card. Good luck.Comment -
Love the over for tomorrow nights yank/Tampa game, Colon is a clown and tampa is hungry for a win after two disappointing losses. Any thoughts?Comment -
I would not play the over in this spot, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't...I agree colon is a fat tub of goo and a clown, but he has great numbers this year and his babip over 2.9 and his lob% right at 70% tell me his success is warranted and there is no numerical reversion to be expected. With that said, hellickson has been really lucky this year so you may be onto something. The yankees are actually a solid under bet despite their offense because their bullpen and defense is so good. Tb is the same way but without the great offense. To me, this total is a coinflip at best or otherwise a small under lean. You never know though...just my opinion...good luck with whatever you choose
Last edited by Love The Action; 07-19-11, 07:11 AM.Comment -
Nice night LTA. It's a shame the 2* didn't cash, looked promising at the end. BOL today
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This padres/.marlins game.(under)...looks interesting...padres are last in just about every offensive stat....first in the league in strikeouts
Sanchez...6th in the NL in strikeouts...ave 9.3 K's per 9 innings
Stauffer has allowed less than 2 runs per..game.. last 7 starts...........Last edited by JR007; 07-19-11, 10:04 AM.Comment -
I would not play the over in this spot, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't...I agree colon is a fat tub of goo and a clown, but he has great numbers this year and his babip over 2.9 and his lob% right at 70% tell me his success is warranted and there is no numerical reversion to be expected. With that said, hellickson has been really lucky this year so you may be onto something. The yankees are actually a solid under bet despite their offense because their bullpen and defense is so good. Tb is the same way but without the great offense. To me, this total is a coinflip at best or otherwise a small under lean. You never know though...just my opinion...good luck with whatever you choose
Thanks for the input LTA, much appreciated. I know on paper this total is a coin flip, however my lean was based purely on the fact that colon has suffered from a recent hamstring injury but yet he insist on playing. And on top of that he was already lit up for 5 runs and 10 hits in their last matchup against TB, i see the rays coming into this game with confidence. Just from his recent outing against TOR saids it all for me, he wasnt even able to get out of the 1st inning before giving up 8 runs. We'll just have to see happens, GL on your plays today.Comment -
We have two plays so far that are looking real good according to the line movement.
He are my remaining leans:
Brewers ML (tough to bet on gallardo right now though)
Cubs under (heat big factor)
BoSox over (not at 10.5 though)
Indians ML (tough to take the tribe against a decent lefty and to win again after yesterday)
Dodgers/SF under (looking good right now)
Rockies ML (jiminez better at home lately)
Good luck...I will post any further plays as I make them...Comment -
Play #3
Dodgers/Giants under (6.5)(-105) 1.5x (Locked)
Had to jump on this one before the line moved.....books starting to juice the under. I will try to get writeups later when I get home from work. I may add units to all three of these plays as well because I absolutely love all them. Good luck!Comment -
Gotta Love the unders when they hit...Comment -
just be wary of playing too much under. to me the heat is going to tell on some of the pitchers. glComment -
Looks good LTA, BOL tonight.
How do you have the Met's game capped total's wise? I know you don't like 8's in general....Gibson's got one of the lowest strike %. Some nice other trends in favor of over. Reyes back...Beltran back.. Being a Muts fan I never trust myself capping them.Comment -
Same to you bud...Looks good LTA, BOL tonight.
How do you have the Met's game capped total's wise? I know you don't like 8's in general....Gibson's got one of the lowest strike %. Some nice other trends in favor of over. Reyes back...Beltran back.. Being a Muts fan I never trust myself capping them.
I initially leaned under based on recent offensive struggles of both teams and solid advanced stats by the pitchers. Both pitchers took a beatdown recently and should be rested and ready to bounce back after the break. However, as I am sure you know, both beltran and reyes are set to return tonight which should give the mets a boost both mentally and on the field. No play on the total for me, but I lean mets ml because of the lift they should get from those guys returning. GL whatever you play
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No play on cubs under...big over ump and the phils are hitting righties too well right now...pass on that one.
I am thinking about adding a unit to the dodgers under and still have the brewers on my radar. GL...Comment -
I'm waiting to see if the fog rolls in at ATT park ( I work a few blocks away). If it does, its another positive factor on the under as ball are weighed down. GL.Comment -
Bartoolo colon you fuking bastard, of course you would pitch like an ace when I doubt you lol, good call LTAComment -
His numbers this year have been outstanding, miraculous really.
For risk of being a "name dropper"....My son trains with the bullpen coach for the Aguilla's, the winter league team Colon plays for down here in the D.R.. He told me going into the season that Colon was going to surprise a lot of people. 1) he had stem cells injected into his shoulder and it has revived the life in his arm and 2) he spent the whole winter just working on a 2 seamer (which he is now utilizing and has excellent movement).
Colon was down here during the all-star break and my son got to long toss with him for like 20 minutes, then watched his BP session where he threw like 47 of 50 pitches for strikes. These major league players are no joke. Of course he went out and got hammered his first start back!
Anyway, I digress, just thought I'd share that. I'm on the under tonight, if I lose will be happy for your win.
Last edited by Redscot; 07-19-11, 08:17 PM.Comment -
That's an awesome story...thanks for sharing. I can't imagine what a cool thrill that was for your son.His numbers this year have been outstanding, miraculous really.
For risk of being a "name dropper"....My son trains with the bullpen coach for the Aguilla's, the winter league team Colon plays for down here in the D.R.. He told me going into the season that Colon was going to surprise a lot of people. 1) he had stem cells injected into his shoulder and it has revived the life in his arm and 2) he spent the whole winter just working on a 2 seamer (which he is now utilizing and has excellent movement).
Colon was down here during the all-star break and my son got to long toss with him for like 20 minutes, then watched his BP session where he threw like 47 of 50 pitches for strikes. These major league players are no joke. Of course he went out and got hammered his first start back!
Anyway, I digress, just thought I'd share that. I'm on the under tonight, if I lose will be happy for your win.
That's also an awesome story because it gives us some insight into Colon's offseason. Instead of drinking beer and eating doughnuts like we thought, he was actually training pretty hard and working on getting better. That definitely changes my thoughts about Colon somewhat. However, I do remember his days in Chicago where his work ethic was questionable.
Colon is having a great year, and like I said earlier, it's not luck. His BABIP and LOB% are right at the average. He's just pitching well and perhaps someone we should give more deference.
Anyway, thanks for the story...pretty cool.
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