HR Derby Handicapping

Bob Loblaw · 07-11-11, 02:54 PM

Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks will be pitched to by Nashville Sounds hitting coach Sandy Guerrero. Fielder won in 2009 with Guerrero throwing to him.

Robinson Cano will be pitched to by his dad Jose. Jose had a brief MLB career in 1989.

Matt Kemp is taking Rob Flippo who throws Batting Practice to him every day. He's the Dodgers bullpen catcher and he threw to Hee Seop Choi in 2005. Choi hit 5 homeruns and was eliminated in the 1st round.

Bob Loblaw · 07-11-11, 03:21 PM

Jose Bautista will be pitched to by Blue Jays bullpen catcher Alex Andreopoulos. Andreopoulos throws Batting Practice to him daily.

8ArIvd5 · 07-11-11, 03:43 PM

good info, bob.

dudekid · 07-11-11, 04:21 PM

what about plate appearances in this ballpark? when looking into hr derby capping, would this play in as a factor? im sure matt kemp, playing in the NL west, has gotten quite a few ABs at this ballpark whereas anyone in the AL probably hasnt played there much if at all...just a thought, might be worth looking at

runnershane14 · 07-11-11, 05:46 PM

good luck to you..good info

og4667 · 07-11-11, 06:00 PM

lefties have a good shot at winning. here is a good read

2011 State Farm Home Run Derby

Monday, 8:00 p.m. ET - Chase Field (Arizona Diamondbacks home park)

Dimensions:
Left field: 330 feet
Power alleys: 374 feet
Center field: 407 feet
Deepest left-center and right-center: 413 feet
Right field: 334 feet
Starting at the Metrodome in 1985, Major League Baseball has held the Home Run Derby on the Monday of All-Star Week. Over the years this event has had many changes as to the rules and how the winner was determined. This year the format was revised so that there were team captains selecting the sides for the American and National League. Leading the American League will be David Ortiz of the Boston Red Sox, while Prince Fielder of the Milwaukee Brewers will lead the National League.
For the first time since 1994, a league champion will be crowned, in addition to an individual champion. The total number of home runs hit by all players in all rounds will be tabulated for the A.L. and N.L. to determine the winning team.
Home Run Derby Notes:

Although Chase Field is pretty symmetrical for righties (330’ to left field) and lefties (334’ to right), five of the past six Derby winners have been left-handed batters, including the past three champions -- David Ortiz (2010), Prince Fielder (2009) and Justin Morneau (2008). Since the first individual competition in 1995, Vladimir Guerrero (2007), Miguel Tejada (2004), Sammy Sosa (2000) and Frank Thomas (1995) are the only righties to win.

Chase Field Home Runs Per Game
Last Five Seasons
2011 - 1.25, 5th in majors
2010 - 1.06, 11th in majors
2009 - 1.04, 14th in majors
2008 - 1.07, 10th in majors
2007 - 1.11, 11th in majors
Odds to win 2011 Home Run Derby

American League

DAVID ORTIZ (7/2) – Bats Left
This will be Ortiz’s fifth appearance in the Home Run Derby. The Boston DH won the event last year, hitting 32 home runs (third most in a HR Derby event), and his 68 total home runs in this contest are second to only Ken Griffey Jr. who has 70 (excludes swing-off playoffs). At 7-to-2 odds, the payoff is certainly worth taking a chance on Ortiz.
Season Home Runs: 19
Career Home Runs: 368 (most among participants)
Career at Chase Field: 0 HR in 7 AB

JOSE BAUTISTA (2/1) – Bats Right
The Toronto outfielder has 31 HR, which are the most in the majors this season. He hit 54 HR to lead the majors last season, which is a main reason why he’s the favorite to win this event. But he is a right-handed hitter, and this will be his first Home Run Derby, so the payoff is probably not enough to play on.
Season Home Runs: 31
Career Home Runs: 144
Career at Chase Field: 2 HR in 34 AB
ADRIAN GONZALEZ (6/1) – Bats Left
He is an intriguing pick at 6-to-1, but your money is better spent elsewhere. This will be only the second appearance for Gonzalez, a teammate of Ortiz on the Red Sox, in the HR Derby. In his 2009 Derby with San Diego, he hit just two homers in his only round. The lefty has only slugged two longballs in his past 20 games, spanning 81 at-bats.
Season Home Runs: 17
Career Home Runs: 185
Career at Chase Field: 13 HR in 169 AB
ROBINSON CANO (8/1) – Bats Left
The Yankees second baseman is making his first appearance in the HR Derby. Cano has hit 15 HR so far this season, but just four taters away from homer-friendly Yankee Stadium. He posted a career-best 29 HR in 2010, and should have greater longshot odds than his current 8-to-1 posting.
Season Home Runs: 15
Career Home Runs: 131
Career at Chase Field: 0 HR in 12 AB
National League

PRINCE FIELDER (3/1) – Bats Left
The captain of the National League, and Milwaukee first baseman is making his third HR Derby appearance. After hitting just three homers in his first Derby in 2007, Fielder won the event in 2009, hitting 23. Fielder is tied for second in the NL to Lance Berkman with 22 HR this season, and should be the overall favorite to win another HR Derby. In the matchup odds, he’s actually slightly favored (-120 to -110) to beat Jose Bautista head-to-head.
Season Home Runs: 22
Career Home Runs: 214
Career at Chase Field: 4 HR in 66 AB

MATT HOLLIDAY (7/2) – Bats Right
Holliday participated last year, failing to reach the semifinals hitting just five home runs. This will be his third appearance, as he reached the semifinals in 2007, but his 13 HR were one short of reaching the finals. That experience could help Holliday, but as a right-handed hitter with a career rate of 1 HR per 41.8 AB at Chase Field, he’s not a great bet on Monday.
Season Home Runs: 14
Career Home Runs: 194
Career at Chase Field: 4 HR in 167 AB
MATT KEMP (7/1) – Bats Right
Kemp is enjoying a fine season so far, as he is tied with Prince Fielder for second in the NL with 22 HR with 13 bombs coming on the road. He’s well ahead of pace to eclipse last year’s career-best 28 homers. This is his first HR Derby appearance, and he’s probably the best longshot to take at 7-to-1 odds. He’s actually favored over Matt Holliday (-125 to -105) in head-to-head betting, and could be a nice upset pick at (+120) to out-slug derby favorite Jose Bautista.
Season Home Runs: 22
Career Home Runs: 111
Career at Chase Field: 5 HR in 124 AB RICKIE WEEKS (12/1) – Bats Right
Weeks will be making his first HR derby appearance. Prior to last season Weeks career-high for HR was 16 in 2007. However, last year he found his power stroke hitting 29 HR, and that trend has continued so far in 2011, as he has 17 at the break. His lack of power in Arizona (2 HR in 55 career at-bats) is worrisome, but his best value is +105 head-to-head against Robinson Cano.
Season Home Runs: 17
Career Home Runs: 106
Career at Chase Field: 2 HR in 55 AB

syy211 · 07-11-11, 06:24 PM

at dbacks field .. should be lots HR