Came up with a 75 percent system since day 1 this season. It may it hit 25 times in a row. Today its Chicago White Sox ML. 500 to win 280ish. (forgot exact)
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Whats your sample size? I'd be intrested to know what it is but you would need a considerable size sampling to prove 75%.Comment -
now you got me interested. i still think interleague plays are really unpredicatable...maybe you should start your system when the interleague plays are over.Comment -
I just realized you said the white sox. That should be an easy call after the beat down they put on last night. All the trends and numbers are in their favor but the ML is up there so you aren't getting much value on it but GL.Comment -
I'm at work so I don't have time to show proof; you can look for yourself. Go to covers and the highest favorite ml of the day wins 75 percent or more. May it was around 89 percent. I think of the top of my head the month of may had 25 wind and only six losses if you bet the highest favorite. Also it hit 20 plus in a row.Comment -
I don't doubt that. I use covers like a bible so I hear ya on the numbers. I'll have to watch that daily to see how well that works. How long have you noticed that trend? Your at work don't use that as an excuse for not being able to screw around, lolComment -
Terrible system. Books would LOVE for everyone to bet the biggest favorite on the board every single day. That would be the quickest way to the poorhouse for guys that play one game a day.
If I have some time later, I will run this for 2008 and see where the units stand.Comment -
Well that and the other thing that would detract me from it is that it's terrible value. Put up 175 to make 100? Or I could put 100 down on oak to get 125 tonight?Comment -
Oftentimes the biggest favorite is over -200. So laying -175 is a "good" day.
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I'd rather play with penny stocks for risk.Comment -
whatever kids. You think its that bad? Write down numbers 1-20. Pick 6 numbers that are loosers. Ask a friend to randomly pick 5 numbers. See how many are the ones you assigned as a looser. see how he did. I think its a good system. I'm gonna do it.Comment -
There's nothing wrong with it if it works for you. All I was saying is that on top of just placing a bet you got to look at the value that your getting for it. If I know there are two potential winners in a night my money is going where it will get the greatest ROI.Comment -
the best way to make money in bases is with dogs,small favs and totals. over time you need to hit such a high pecentage when playing the heavies. just my opinion gcComment -
I think you have to take the value wherever you can get it.Comment -
LT, surely you know more than me (and just about everyone here) when it comes to betting on sports, but I may have to disagree with you here. If betting the heaviest favorite one game a day is the quickest way to the poorhouse, then betting on the biggest dog every day MUST be the quickest way to making money. (At least when using an exchange like matchbook.) I think I would lean more towards neither of these being true, though I wouldn't be surprised if betting the heaviest favorite daily did make you money.
I like your conservative approach to betting, but wonder if you may be missing out on some value sometimes with the heavier favorites.Comment -
One reason this sytem is working in the short run is that favorites have really dominated since May 1st:
Numbers betting on all favorites to win $100 (@ -106 or higher) from May 1st to June 10th:
ALL games:
W324-L234 +$3093
American League Favorites (Non-Interleague):
W132-L104 -$519
Interleague Favorites:
24W-17L +$302
National League Favorites (Non-Interleague)
168W-109L +$3310!!
Thats for May 1st through June 10th, I haven't had a chance to update, but certainly can explain why such a system is doing well, but is a caveat for longer term success.Comment -
smitch124 is a wise man! Favortes are dominating so far this season, so you can come up with a thousand "systems" based on favorites that have produced a profit so far. It is also why the Bullpen System is failing so miserably. However, the dogs will start barking soon. They always do.Comment -
LT, the vig is the reason why I mentioned an exchange such as matchbook.
Any idea where the BPS is at? I haven't given up on it for the year, but like you I have decided to not play it as long as these trends continue.Comment -
BPS is 91-110, -13.57
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There, there!!!
Hey, if you do get around to calculating stats on the heaviest daily favorite, would you mind calculating the run line too??
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if you lose the $500 wed what would you do on thurs ? or when you do in fact lose one of the $500 wagers what is your next move ?
would the next move be in a safe category or would it be borderline serious hole about to be dug ? how many shovels of dirt do you have before the word buried can be applied ? i dont know you so that's why i have to ask , another words how big is the bankroll ?
wsox ml looks pretty good , again am just wondering how much you wager when you wager next ... ? -$500 can be big if you dont hit with your next wager ...
is all about bankroll , i have wagered these kind of wagers all throughout my life every single day for years now ... always seems lockish but in reality can be no different than shooting dice or bj or poker or whatever you can think of ..
what is my conclusion overall betting these ? all depends on if you pick the right one , is pretty simple . when you go on a run you have to really make that run count . when you start hitting blanks is when you have to really be smart to get back on track >>> you dont get back on track by simply betting the biggest fav of the day really . you have to be a little slicker than that .
when i first saw this thread i thought it was a joke .. no offense .
is okay to bet big fav mls for each day but you should also incorporate some parlays in the same day covering your big $ fav play ..
so if you miss that day you can salvage something and it is not so bad that night .
i have wagered -200 plus mls 10,000 times , is not the way to go really ..
always true > all that matters at the end of the day is if you were right and went plus or minus money .
also always true > sustaining the bet the one big fav of the day overall as a sole strategy > as anyone with experience will tell you > sure to bust and bust so loudly western union will not only hear you but will call you up personally to ask when you coming by ..
sometimes when you miss the big ml fav you can do just as well if you covered your straight wager .
EXAMPLE WITH THE WSOX PLAY TONIGHT :
pirates +1.5 twins twins over 8.5 angels over 9 for $25 cover > profit $248 . cover could be no good because of one of the others so could be -$25 but so what . best to cover your ml play with 2 or 3 others you like ...
cover : pirates +1.5 , marlins , marlins over 9.5
i do like the wsox play tonight though and hope it is straight ez ! glComment -
yanks will be biggest fav on thurs and the most voted for on covers so since you are saying this is a system do you wager the yanks -220 on thurs ?
do you ever lay off for a day ? i have been tracking the biggest picked favs as well , every day , i never miss a day . the system in question would have to be tweaked big time , you would have to give up the 1.5 , short and sweet .
the real problem with your strategy is (your source) these people that are picking would always go with the big fav because they would be right more than wrong , so they simply click a vote for the good team over the so called bad team .
in your favor > could be good timing , is all about the timing of a strategy .
i see the favs have been rolling overall the last 30 days like smitch124 tracked and showed above .
what will likely occur the rest of june ?
LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME > favs did okay the last 11 days of june last year , the really big fav days that occured in this stretch >> it was 11 - 4 tues 365 days ago , wed was 10 - 5 , was 12 - 3 favs on sat , last fri of june 11 - 5 favs ruled . were some dominated dog nights as well . never changes really , will always be the same patterns OVERALL .
the actual biggest voted for fav of the day though is garbage strategy . no if ands or buts . unless you get in and get out fast with it and wagered 5 and 10 grand in your great run . if normal wagering $wise then this strategy is no different than any other except with this straegy there is a greater risk to actually LOSE A shi!load and keep trying to bounce back only to get knocked in the head ...
odds on how long this thread stays active :
3 days > -280
more than 7 days > -105
more than 10 days > +130
more than 2 weeks > +150
to the all star break > +290
to sept 1st > +600Comment -
Odds on him joining dac in starting a thread requesting a transfer of funds to cover his rent/mortgage cause the system didn't quite work as expected...Comment -
Here is the deal everyone. I went back all the way to April 1st to prove the system. If you want to be a hater go ahead. All I know is I'd prefer juicy odds that are high percent wins than a coin flop. Regardless choose your poison.
and BTW the White Sox did win today.
Here is how it works: Every morning go to Covers.com., then "full MLB scoreboard" under the games for the day. Look at all the games and the lines if they are all posted. Find the game with the greatest ML (ex -200 would be greater than -140). Bet that game.
If you did this this is what would happen.
April 1st-
1 April -190 w
2 -212 l
3 -170 w
4 -195 w
5 -195 l
6 -230 w
7 n/a
8 -155 l
9 -151 l
10 -160 w
11 -158 l
12 -195 l
13 -157 w
14 -162 l
15 -185 w
16 -190 w
17 -176 l
18 220 w
19 170 w
20 180 w
21 190 w
22 250 w
23 195 w
24 167t w/l (two games at 167, means no action)
25 158 l
26 180 w
27 146 l
28 185 w
29 220 w
30 167 w
May:
1 May 143 w
2 167 w
3 204 l
4 175 w
5 146 l
6 147 w
7 175 w
8 162 l
9 180 w
10 260 w
11 190 w
12 175 w
13 200 w
14 163 w
15 191 w
16 145 w
17 223 w
18 225 w
19 175 w
20 171 w
21 159 w
22 188 w
23 161 w
24 178 w
25 230 w
26 201 w
27 187 w
28 175 w
29 183 l
30 186 l
31 240 w
June:
1 June 183 w (stopped putting in juice in excel)
2 l
3 w
4 w
5 w
6 l
7 w
8 w
9 l
10 l
11 w
12 w
13 w
14 l
15 w
16 w
17 w Play was white sox
18 w Play was white sox
Excluding April 7th, April 24... (due to multiple lines at highest) or no games.
Percentage of wins?
April
18 Wins, 10 Losses
Aka 64 percent WIN RATE
May
26 Wins, 5 Losses
Aka 83 percent WIN RATE
June as of 18th
13 Wins, 5 Losses
Aka 72 percent WIN RATE
Percent Wins from April-June 18th
57 Wins Total, 20 Losses
Aka 74.0259 Percent Winners overall
Also, I'd like to note that I believe April was a poor month due to the unpredictability of the teams since it was the start of the season. Books couldn't guess the teams yet.
So, if you don't like my system fine. The only reason why I told you all and went to all this work was to help you profit. I thought this was alarming stats and thought that If you're willing to lay -200+ in other sports why not be happy with -150 to -220 in baseball?
Anyways, according to my system tomorrows bet should be Yankees since they are the highest at -225 as of tonight.Comment -
Percentages dont mean anything because your risking more money to win less. So you could have a 90% winstreak with -100000000 odds. But that one loss would mean your at negative money.
I did some more math for you and what matters is the amount of units your up.
April: +2.67
May: +17.19
June: cant do b/c you didnt post lines
What you want to be showing off is the units won. It looks like the past two months this has worked. Granted those months have been heavy with dog wins, but hey that doesn't mean this won't work!
Good luck!Comment -
Here is my point. I'd rather WIN than loose and play the "chase" game.
Also, I like to take a day or two off. Since statistically it would make since If I bet 4 days in a row i'd win atleast one.
Also, since you are betting favorites do this.
Day one bet 500 bucks.. to win.. 250? (-200)
Okay, day two bet 750 to win 375
Day 3 bet 1125 to win 562
Day 4 bet 1697 to win 848
Now you're up to 2545, cash out, made two grand.
It's actually very easy. Think of it this way.
Get a piece of paper and number 1-20. Label 6 of the 20 "loosers".. ex: 3,4,8,11,19,12.
Now, call up 5 buddies and ask for 4 numbers from 1-20..
You'd be surprised how many actually "win" all 4..
Also, why is everyone so "offensive" about this? I'm only trying to help people with what I think is a good system..Comment -
not offensive , just telling you how it really works . if you lose 5 games wagering $500 that would be minus $2500 . all the $250's you get will not surpass the losses by much if they do surpass them at all . you are throwing alot of $ out there each night that could be utilized better with a wager less to make more theme ..
i could take $100 of your $500 for 1 night and make alot more than you could with the flat bet wager alot to make a little strategy .
again > when you miss five $500 wagers that = $2500
you have to cash 10 wagers making $250 each to cover the simple 5 losses , just to break even .
10 - 5 you more or less break even . can be a dangerous game there when your big bet falls through with a blown save or whatever else you can dream up..
i do love the keep doubling down strategy though big time , but to do it in baseball taking the biggest fav is crazy . no way you keep doubling down , like you said put it in your pocket after a streak . BUT WHO IS TO SAY YOU CAN MAINTAIN EVEN A 3 GAME STREAK OR EVEN A 2 GAME STREAK . can get stopped dead in your tracks just as easy as you can happen to make it to 3 in a row ...
soooooooo ? wager normally .Comment -
Dude I wasn't ragging on you at all in my post. Don't pre-judge me.
Another FYI the longest win streak so far is 2. Thus the odds of you losing 4 in a row haven't even occurred yet. I was just trying to help. Apparently it's not needed here.Comment -
OK did some math. Assuming a $500 wager per game.
62 lines listed above totals $31,000
Potential gains from all 62 games is $16637.83 or 53.67%
Net Return not including wagers would be $4,229.09 or 13.64%
Gross return including wagers would be $26,729.09 or a loss of -4,270.91 or -13.78%
Percentages look really pretty but all that matters in life is the bottom line ROI.
Hope this helps.Comment -
You don't bet every game. How is this hard to understand? You just pick a day to bet the favorite. Pick four random days out of the month or two months and use your winnings from the previous wins/initial deposit.
ERH.Comment -
Just look at the percentages of the favorites. You have to win 2 to cover 1 because they only pay 50% or less. Lose 1 game and now you have to cover 4 times to make up for the one you lost plus the one your playing, Lose 2 and you have to cover 6. After that it gets increasing difficult given the odds of hitting a 6+ streak. I think more than anything what you have to realize is that we aren't so much knocking the "system" but rather forewarning that the math has been done and there's no original idea in sports betting that hasn't been tried already. Best of luck to you though.Comment
