Wednesday

[BiffTFinancial]

4* Cardinals/Orioles over 9 (+100)
3* Brewers/Yankees over 9 (-119)
2* Tribe ML (-104)

may add an under later. BOL to all today.

[NYSportsGuy210]

With Carpenter on the mound....?

[RockyMiavia]

GL with Cleveland. I think Carrasco will continue to pitch great. I have Cleavland also.

[BiffTFinancial]

With Carpenter on the mound....?

yep. Carpenter is not as good as in years past, and gets more respect that he should based upon name value. also, he threw 124 pitches each of his last two outings, both bullpens are horrendous (and were taxed last night due to rain delay), and the Cards offense had a nice boost last night with the DH and return of Freese. 10 of Carp's 16 starts have gone over, including last 3.

[BiffTFinancial]

GL with Cleveland. I think Carrasco will continue to pitch great. I have Cleavland also.

thanks, Rocky. BOL to you too. Carrasco has been outstanding, hope that it continues today.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

3* Nats/Angels under 6.5 (-105)

updated card
4* Cardinals/Orioles over 9 (+100)
3* Brewers/Yankees over 9 (-119)
3* Nats/Angels under 6.5 (-105)
2* Tribe ML (-104)

[HOT WINGS]

Like the Yanks Over and Angels Under. Good luck today

[Lord and Master]

adding

3* Nats/Angels under 6.5 (-105)

I know the angels have been crushing unders at home and there are two studs on the mound but 6.5 in the AL is insanity. I've been looking for conditions where the market is starting to turn its bias towards unders enough to make overs profitable and this seems to be the most glaring I've seen so far. 75% on the under, neither team is at the bottom of the league in offense

[BiffTFinancial]

I know the angels have been crushing unders at home and there are two studs on the mound but 6.5 in the AL is insanity. I've been looking for conditions where the market is starting to turn its bias towards unders enough to make overs profitable and this seems to be the most glaring I've seen so far. 75% on the under, neither team is at the bottom of the league in offense

i hear you, you are correct that under 6.5 in the AL seems like insanity. i do not like taking unders lower than 7 (though i did with ATL/SEA the other night with Beachy and Bedard). however, i love taking unders at 4 pm local time starts. depending upon the park, they can make for wicked shadows for the hitters. among others, Cleveland, San Fran and Anaheim all have shadows that are really tough for hitters at 4 pm local time starts. the Angels have had 3 homes games this season where the total was 6.5. two of three went under, and the over was a 4-3 extra inning game that was 2-0 heading into the 8th.

[Lord and Master]

i do not like taking unders lower than 7 (though i did with ATL/SEA the other night with Beachy and Bedard).

the lower the better for me, i never take unders above 9

however, i love taking unders at 4 pm local time starts. depending upon the park, they can make for wicked shadows for the hitters. among others, Cleveland, San Fran and Anaheim all have shadows that are really tough for hitters at 4 pm local time starts.

have you backtested this? it sounds really solid

and in normal circumstances all the stuff I said shouldn't be convincing to bet one or the other but I think its pretty appropriate when the majority is on the other side which happens to be an low under and the public perception is starting to slowly tilt towards low unders, which were previously hated by the public

[CAS2550]

good luck

[oChRoNiCo]

gl with the plays tonight it will be interesting to see if Carpenter is with the backup catcher again or with Yadi in his last start his best of the season he was with the backup catcher and I dont believe he shook him off once all game they were in a very good rythm together the reason the game went over was Oswalt got hit hard early often taken out of the game and they put up a 7 spot late in the game.

[JR007]

look to see how it is juiced......both team totals currently juiced to the under, both pitcher's whip is very good....regression to the mean ie (overs)...will probably set in a few weeks after the allstar break.....books hang lines that low .....good chance for an under...sportspy currently has 62% of the public favoring the.under....maybe sharp action....as of 6-20 2011...Angels stadium ave runs 6.69...record 10 overs 20 unders 5 push

[Lord and Master]

look to see how it is juiced......both team totals currently juiced to the under, both pitcher's whip is very good....regression to the mean ie (overs)...will probably set in a few weeks after the allstar break

this is only going to be true if the books have started to adjust the lines way down which they haven't done. Totals are on average .1 higher in june than may. If by regression to the mean you mean unders not being as nearly profitable I tend to agree(but probably to a lesser degree). If by regression you mean overs all of a sudden being somewhat broadly profitable I strongly disagree. The only situation I'm seeing as the market overcorrecting on unders is when its two really stud pitchers, especially lee and halladay. Even then I'm not confident enough to start betting those overs

sportspy currently has 62% of the public favoring the.under....maybe sharp action....

are you talking about cards/orioles? I see 30% on the under

[Sawyer]

Under is a very reasonable bet specially when King Felix is pitching

Not to mention, Mariners lineup is awful. Can't hit a sh*t. (Still I like them to win this one in a low scoring game)

[BiffTFinancial]

the lower the better for me, i never take unders above 9 have you backtested this? it sounds really solid and in normal circumstances all the stuff I said shouldn't be convincing to bet one or the other but I think its pretty appropriate when the majority is on the other side which happens to be an low under and the public perception is starting to slowly tilt towards low unders, which were previously hated by the public

i have not back-tested this, it's an idea i just started to investigate recently. i've been tracking and paying attention to it sort of anecdotally, like when announcers talk about a park's shadows being particularly tough for late afternoon games. Cleveland, i already knew about. San Fran and Anaheim, i learned about this season listening to announcers discuss it during afternoon games. those are the three on my list for sure at the moment, but looking to add to it.

[BiffTFinancial]

this is only going to be true if the books have started to adjust the lines way down which they haven't done. Totals are on average .1 higher in june than may. If by regression to the mean you mean unders not being as nearly profitable I tend to agree(but probably to a lesser degree). If by regression you mean overs all of a sudden being somewhat broadly profitable I strongly disagree. The only situation I'm seeing as the market overcorrecting on unders is when its two really stud pitchers, especially lee and halladay. Even then I'm not confident enough to start betting those overs are you talking about cards/orioles? I see 30% on the under

i think that his 62% under comment pertained to WAS/LAA, not STL/BAL.

[reformed]

biff what is your record on mlb totals this year , if you know? thanks.

[BiffTFinancial]

biff what is your record on mlb totals this year , if you know? thanks.

sort of. i have my overall record and units, and i have my records for overs and unders but not broken down into units. for the season, i'm 156-135-22 +26.56u. Unders are 58-52-9 (frustrating, because i prefer unders) and overs are 57-36-8, so totals overall are 115-88-17.

[BeerBottlez]

I like the Baltimore/St. Louis over too.

BOL

[kidkonggolf]

Brewers/Yanks OVER

[BiffTFinancial]

I like the Baltimore/St. Louis over too. BOL

nice, was starting to wonder if i was the only one, heh heh. that's okay, everyone was on the over in the STL/BAL game last night and we pushed, so hoping for better results a little more under the radar.

Brewers/Yanks OVER

injured Marcum visits Yankees Stadium with the wind blowing out and faces AJ Burnett.

[Nats' Fan]

Good luck today, Biff. I've been looking out for your plays..

[RockyMiavia]

Looks like we can cash the Cleveland game. 2-0 today and I'm using the winnings and place on the Red sox ML and Yankees/Mil over at 9.5. GL all

[vcj16]

good luck to us on the Cardinals/Orioles over 9

[JR007]

yes, i was refering to the angels game, on the other topic,...some teams may be slipping out of contention a few weeks, after the all-star break, staritng pitching fatique, bullpen usage, tough scheduling etc.hot weather...IMO....I think you will see higher totals in the coming weeks
tough to bet overs...squares bet them more..so lines are sharper...........a casual glance at the sbr board will show what gets juiced more

[BiffTFinancial]

2* Tribe - WINNER.

go Tribe. thanks fellas. let's keep it going.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

3* Marlins/A's under 7 (+100)

[BiffTFinancial]

4* Cardinals/Orioles over 9 (+100) - LOSER
3* Nats/Angels under 6.5 (-105) - WINNER

2-1 +1u start, but not looking good in NY.

[pacocn]

Biff, Dodger stadium can also get some wicked shadows with 5pm
start times

[BiffTFinancial]

Biff, Dodger stadium can also get some wicked shadows with 5pm start times

thanks, pacocn, i'll make a note of that.

[BiffTFinancial]

3* Brewers/Yanks over - LOSER

2-2 -2.57u so far, Marlins/A's under pending.

[doin]

thanks for the thread biff.

[vegasinfom]

they get payed wether they are injured or not

[BiffTFinancial]

3* Marlins/A's under 7 (+100) - WINNER

3-2 +0.43u.