SD/KC Over 6.5

[jay777]

What do you guys think? Went big on the over.

[HoulihansTX]

LOL. Playing the Padres over is one of the scarier bets in baseball.

Betting the Astros to win would be next. Don't watch the game.

[BigDan]

i like it but not sure about going big, scary park for overs. waiting on the h/r/e number cause kc likes to put ppl on then not score.

[jay777]

Well latos and Francis are both in the high 5's era over their last 4 games. The pens havent been much better at close to 4 for both teams. Petco is a bitch to hit at but both teams especially SD have been puttin runs up over the last ten games, To me this game should be around a 7.5-8 range. As far as scary, any wager thats high makes the hair on the ass stand up.

[jay777]

Also went smaller on Cincy and Wash.

[HoulihansTX]

When betting totals, the parks mean more than the pitcher.

[jay777]

When betting totals, the parks mean more than the pitcher.

I think the lineman would price that into the line.

[BigDan]

Well latos and Francis are both in the high 5's era over their last 4 games. The pens havent been much better at close to 4 for both teams. Petco is a bitch to hit at but both teams especially SD have been puttin runs up over the last ten games, To me this game should be around a 7.5-8 range. As far as scary, any wager thats high makes the hair on the ass stand up.

era is such a misleading stat. Latos last 2 starts were in Col when Rox were heating up and in Beantown where the Sox were smoking. imo he did a very good job against the Red Sux but the numbers wouldnt really support that. i think Latos is still gonna be fine and this is a game where yea im sure Kc will get some hits (the spacious park may even help that) but this is a Royal team that struggles to get runners across the plate (if you throw out cubs series which i will) and now they losing the dh, prob another singles hitter but their offence is inefficient enough w/o having to have the pitcher bat. So dont be shocked if you need a few runs and kc has ppl on base every inning but just cant bring them home.
Agree Pads should hit Francis but even so it still hard to give them more than 4.

[HoulihansTX]

Ignore ERA's. Its a remedial stat for people who don't know much about baseball.

Focus on K/BB ratio, Balls In-Play(groundouts/flyouts), Whip, etc.

Focus on umps

And where the game is being played.

[miyakuza]

Latos has been solid. I don't know where the high 5 era is coming from.

[jay777]

I hear you HTX. I go by streaks especially last 10 games. Including hitting, starters, pen and overall w/l. To me the numbers dont lie. evryone has there own way. Umps and park will even out but if the player is playing bad or good over a strech it really doesnt matter whos callin ba/st or where. Just my humble opinion.

[Types]

liking this play, but that's why I have a day job

[jay777]

Latos has been solid. I don't know where the high 5 era is coming from.

Latos over last 3 games.
ERA 5.29 over 17 innings. 10 runs allowed 8 earned.

[HoulihansTX]

Duely noted

BOL

[jay777]

Duely noted

BOL

Good. I just wanna pick some fukkin winners, BOL

[BigDan]

I hear you HTX. I go by streaks especially last 10 games. Including hitting, starters, pen and overall w/l. To me the numbers dont lie. evryone has there own way. Umps and park will even out but if the player is playing bad or good over a strech it really doesnt matter whos callin ba/st or where. Just my humble opinion.

that is so wrong tho. Umps if i like a total there only a handful that i wont really go against for totals cause their numbers dont lie either. And Ballparks even out? that is simply not true, look at the abundance of unders in a lot of the west coast ball parks. ie. Petco, CR, whatever the name of stadium where A's play, SF, Safco. granted these teams are kinda built to be low scoring but that has a lot to do with the fact the Parks arnt conducive to winning with a bunch of power hitters trying to hit hrs or bust.

Ballpark and weather has to be a factor, and Umps for the most part you just have to avoid certain ones for a over and cetain ones for a under. wouldnt play a over in a Diaz game, and wouldnt touch under in a McClelland game, there a few others but these the two i know are not to be fukked with. plenty more umps that are pretty neutral and yu can expect a fair gm than not but there are exceptions.

[BigDan]

Latos over last 3 games.
ERA 5.29 over 17 innings. 10 runs allowed 8 earned.

At col against a Hot Rox team and at Bos when sox where scoring 10 a game. You have to take into account who these numbers were accumulated against. Like i said i feel he was very solid in Bos, wernt many pitchers that could have did to much better a job the way Sox were working counts and knocking pitchers out during that stretch. He obviously has had issues but i havnt heard anywhere that his velocity or anything was down, that changes things but the guy is talented enough to keep kc from lighting him up. if you went off some of these numbers you would think Chris Carpenter was pitching horribly this season when that is simply not the case, if anything it was clear Carp was due for some serious correction to the good. There so much more to this than era's.

[LGHT]

I kind of like the over, but a small bet if anything as there are just too many contradicting stats to get a solid lean either way. KC is hitting .269 in June and SD actually doing ok with a .245 avg. They are getting hits, but the lack of long ball threat especially in SD gives me a bit of concearn. KC has only scored 90 runs and SD 86. One good note is SD actually hits lefties pretty good with a team era of .266 8th in the league. However SD is the worse hitting team at home with a pathetic .213 era and has only scored 115 runs at home.

Then you look at the pitchers. Francis really isn't that bad of a pitcher as he pitched well against DET, STL, LAA, but he also has some horrible games. He gave up 6 runs in 3 against CLE and then again 6 runs in 4 against TX. It's even worse when he pitches against SD as he went 0-2 with a 10.64 ERA in three match ups last season against SD while with COL. He actually started 3 games against them, but only managed to go 11 total innings and never made it out of the 3rd in 2 of the 3 starts so it's clear SD has his number.

[Bswitz32]

Im going UN....SD is to scary to count on getting runs and KC can put up 6-7 but I am going with 5-1 Final

BOL

[CHAZ]

Playing the OVER at Petco Park is pretty ballsy.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/sort/hitsFactor

[jay777]

Thanx. Now all you fukks got me second guessing. Now I'm gonna be pacin the floor, wearin the wood out. Just need one these fukks to get shelled.

[MrShrink]

These 2 teams are hitting about .290 cumulatively L10 against the sides of the mound they are facing tonight. In their last 6 games they've hit around or above .300 in 5 of them, against the likes of Hudson, Lowe, Dempster, and Zambrano (Jurrjens held SD to .143). Each of their pens has pitched well lately, but have thrown about 30 innings each over the last 3. Latos has pitched decently enough, but also threw 120 pitches his last time out. Both starters have terrible records and era's around 4.5 for the season.

All of this is certainly enough for me to against the old 6.5 Petco line. Glad I got it before it hit 7, but I'd have to consider taking it at that anyways, if I hadn't.

[jay777]

These 2 teams are hitting about .290 cumulatively L10 against the sides of the mound they are facing tonight. In their last 6 games they've hit around or above .300 in 5 of them, against the likes of Hudson, Lowe, Dempster, and Zambrano (Jurrjens held SD to .143). Each of their pens has pitched well lately, but have thrown about 30 innings each over the last 3. Latos has pitched decently enough, but also threw 120 pitches his last time out. Both starters have terrible records and era's around 4.5 for the season.

All of this is certainly enough for me to against the old 6.5 Petco line. Glad I got it before it hit 7, but I'd have to consider taking it at that anyways, if I hadn't.

You're right. 6.5 is the petco line. Over the last 22 at the place o/u is 11-11. I'm feel in good bout tonite.

[BigDan]

Thanx. Now all you fukks got me second guessing. Now I'm gonna be pacin the floor, wearin the wood out. Just need one these fukks to get shelled.

im not saying it doesnt hit, told you i liked it, just not sure i would pound it. played h/r/e ov 23.5 so im certainly thinking you on the right side.

[MrShrink]

just not sure i would pound it.

[PAULYPOKER]

)never mind

[jay777]

Congrats! Over backers.

[HoulihansTX]

Congrats.

[jay777]

Congrats.

Thanx bro. Just needs the nats to stop fukkin around for a nice nite. BOL